Hoo boy, another 'Bear' moment for Cramer....
CNBC’s Jim Cramer urged viewers to buy Silicon Valley Bank stock last month
https://nypost.com/2023/03/10/cnbcs-jim-cramer-touted-silicon-valley-bank-stock/
(admittedly not exactly a 1:1 comparison, but close enough to cause a firestorm)

Is there any reason to think his message helped take your & my funds down today ?

We can wish …
@Derf - Check out how much the Fed has ratcheted up their overnight lending rate during the past 15 months.

I was taught in a college communications class a half century ago: ”A percept is a product” So, while we can mitigate the failure of SVB and put it into proper perspective, the perception out there among the public and some in the investment / banking industry will likely have greater ramifications.

Great post @hank and dovetails with what I just heard on TV discussing how sentiment contagion here could be ominous. Silicon Valley Bank is not some mom and pop bank but the 16th largest in the country and the leader among funding venture capitalists.
Edit: Schwab the large brokerage firm has also been pummeled the past two trading days.

Typical FDIC intervention - close the bank on Friday, reopen on Monday under new ownership.
Many confuse similar rescue for brokers (by SIPC) and insurance & annuity companies (by state regulators) - but those may take months or years to workout.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-is-shut-down-by-regulators-fdic-to-protect-insured-deposits.html
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23016.html

I have found a number of free sites that occasionally come up with something really worth reading. This is about SVB. The insiders were bailing out months ago. The chief risk officer resigned in late 2021 sold all her stock and was not replaced ( although investors were not told until 2023
https://nongaap.substack.com/p/sivb-held-to-mortem-governance

Got through paywall, but article, to me , demonstrates that WSJ is a shadow of it's formal self. Little discussion of why IVOL and Kinetics funds have not worked and why PFIX has (although it is down YTD and today).
PFIX and IVOL demonstrate again why investing is complicated. I could not understand IVOL discussions of it's strategy, although it was recommended by people I trust. PFIX I pretty much understand, thanks to Simplify's Harley Bassman's monthly discussions.
https://www.convexitymaven.com/2021-xx/
A lot of this is well over my head, but I don't try to invest in that stuff. Nor do I take large positions.
A simple defense against inflation would also be very short terms bonds, floating rate treasuries (USFR) and/or treasury bills and inverse treasury ETFs.
TUR is a great example of why equities work in hyperinflation countries.

Looking at a 1 year trend of SIVB, the stock was dropping steadily over the year. It was already down -50% before yesterdays drop, so I'm wondering if this really was a big surprise to influential investors or they saw the last shoe drop. In comparison, SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was only down around -6% during that same time.

Good morning,
The confusion about the table is related to my second article for the month, "Looking Beyond 2023 - Investing Lies and Statistics" where I describe year over year as a way of measuring inflation as an example. It has to do with two data points, one now and the other a year ago.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2023/03/looking-beyond-2023-investing-lies-and-statistics/
The chart is comparing the fund performance for the last twelve months as of the end of January which would be from February 2022 through January 2023. In February 2022 the S&P 500 was down 2.8% as a starting point. In January 2023, the S&P 500 was up over 7% compared to the previous month. The one-year comparison is from a starting low point to an ending high point. People have it fresh in their minds that 2022 was a bad year and the table is not comparing the calendar 2022 period.
To validate the chart we can use the following calculator. For the calendar 2022 year (12 months) from January 2022 to January 2023, the S&P 500 lost 13.4%. For the twelve month period from February 2022 to February 2023, the S&P 500 lost 9.8% compared to loss of 8.3% in Chart #2 from the article. I am not sure why there is a 1.5% difference in the two reporting data sets. One difference is that I used VFINX which represents the S&P500 compared to the actual S&P500 index.
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
As a final check, as of yesterday, using Morningstar, the one-year return on VFINX is minus 6.97% compared to SPY which is a minus 6.9%.
I just updated the table through February. I don't know how to display a picture so if someone can't help me out, I would appreciate it. Through February, the one-year return of VFINX is -7.8% which is close to the table in the article and the Morningstar estimate as of yesterday.
Symbol APR 1 yr % APR 2 yr %/yr APR 3 yr %/yr APR 5 yr %/yr
VFINX, -7.8, 3.5, 12.0, 9.7
VGYAX, -4.6, -0.1, 2.2, 3
VWIAX, -6.5, -0.4, 2.7, 4.5
GPANX, -3.7, -0.1, 3.5, 3.5
VTMFX, -5.5, 0.2, 5.5, 5.8
VGWAX, -3.3, 2.6, 6.7, 6.0
COTZX, -8.1, -3.3, 6.4, 7.2
PQTAX, 8.1, 12.5, 11.3, 8.4
REMIX, 5.8, 9.2, 15.5,
If I missed something, please let me know. I hope this helps.
Regards,
(Charles) Lynn

SVB Financial/SIVB had a masterfully BAD timing. Several of its filings at Edgar/SEC showed up yesterday (see the link below) - a huge AFS* portfolio for sale, a large capital raise by issuing stock, preferreds, etc, on the day after the shutdown announcement by (unrelated) Silvergate/SI. Then the SIVB CEO was on call to its venture-capitalists (VCs) to not panic, and that if everyone panicked at the same time, that could be a problem. Well, the VCs ran away in droves.
Banks are required to hold lots of Treasuries but can hold them at book value or initial purchase price (but not marked-to-market) in the long-term HTM portfolio that the banks may use for quick loans. They also hold securities in the short-term AWS portfolio that is marked-to-market. When there is a run on the bank, this distinction may disappear and almost everything becomes AWS (if the Fed or FHLB or somebody else doesn't step in for rescue) and huge losses ensue. Factors are also different for SI (a crypto-friendly bank) and SIVB (VC/startup-friendly bank).
Neither SI, nor SIVB tapped the Fed Discount Window - unclear if by choice or they were turned away. Late last year, SI strangely tapped the FHLB for liquidity and that loan was suddenly called just before its recent unwind - may be it triggered the unwind.
Twitter was buzz with both, but then it may not be mainstream media - is that CNBC?
*AFS = available-for-sale (marked-to-market)
HTM = Hold-to-maturity (NOT marked-to-market)
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=719739&owner=exclude

I am surprised this hasn’t gotten more discussion on the boards today.

Ditto. It came up on the Off-Topic board yesterday in a post by @Baseball_Fan - but I was the only one to make any remarks. - LINK
No - I don’t think this is anywhere near the equivalent of Lehman. Don’t expect a repeat of ‘08 either. But depending how far the Fed decides to push its 2% inflation goal, it might get nasty. Aside from all this, the competition from higher interest rates - especially at the short end - is putting pressure on equities. And banks have to be struggling due to the inverted curve. Not to make too much of 1-day, but was surprised to see an intermediate term high yield fund I own break even yesterday. Expected worse.

@johnN @junkster
What little of CNBC I watched yesterday was when Mayo was on with Scott Wapner, and they talked about financials (I didn’t know the huge financial sell-off stemmed from $SIVB)….mentioning that the largest, multinational banks have been stress-tested annually for several years, and are probably in good shape (C, BAC, WFC, JPM, etc). The banks just under that size, whether super regional or regional, have not been stress-tested. Obviously the worry is contagion.
I have been trading ZION; it’s a conservative UT (redundant? Ha) bank that I have traded in and out of for last 18 months or so. Good dividend growth. But it was down 10-11% yesterday, so I bought more.
Good luck to us….I’m in junkster’s camp that we’ve been in a rally since October, and that was the bear bottom….but man, all these walls of worry keep being built! Ha

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-10-banks-that-may-face-trouble-in-the-wake-of-the-svb-financial-group-debacle-50d6e49e?mod=home-page
https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/marketmind-bye-kuroda-boj-takes-220502194.html
Nobody know
Folks who think could be new Lehman on horizon??
Thinking selling 50% of all asset tomorrow

I suggest that @msf follow up on this with M* or @ApplebyIRA at Twitter.
I'm rather antisocial (media) - no Facebook, Twitter, etc. accounts. And M* keeps making it harder to communicate with. Instead I'll try D. Appleby's website targeted at individuals, and relay what response I get.
About the website: https://retirementdictionary.com/about-us/
"The rules that govern IRAs, 401(k)s and other retirement accounts are complex. Need a plain-English explanation? Ask us!"
https://retirementdictionary.com/ask-an-expert/

Call me skeptical, but it sounds like the rep just looked at the current literature, i.e. Artisan's page giving the backgrounds of its international value strategy managers and as you wrote, the current prospectus. Neither you nor the rep know whether what he was reading was correct, just that Artisan had put something on paper. And he didn't dig any further.
Artisan may not have been able to tell you what Oakmark funds it claims that Samra managed, but I can, by referencing Artisan's old prospectuses. In the final prospectus (Aug 26, 2002) before ARTKX launched (Sept 23, 2002), Artisan names a OAKIX and OAKEX as funds Samra had managed.
It looks like Artisan's legal beagles promptly went to work. The full annual Artisan prospectus put out two months later (Nov 1, 2022) dropped the claim that Samra had been an Oakmark portfolio manager by dint of his having worked in the investment team (as an analyst?).
From this point on, Artisan's prospectuses said only that Samra had been a senior analyst on these funds. Then in 2012 Artisan stopped giving Samra's Oakmark history.
A related curiosity is that Artisan didn't say anything about Samra having worked on OAKGX until it was about to launch its own global fund (2007). Then Samra's global fund history with Oakmark (as an analyst) apparently became worth mentioning.
Prospectus chronology:

• August ___ 2002: Mr. Samra was a Portfolio Manager and analyst with Harris Associates L.P.
  
• Aug 26, 2002: Mr. Samra was a Portfolio Manager and Analyst with Harris Associates L.P. ... where he was a member of the investment team managing the Oakmark International and Oakmark International Small Cap Funds.
  
• Nov 1, 2002: Mr. Samra was employed by Harris Associates L.P. ... where he was a Senior Analyst on the Oakmark International and Oakmark International Small Cap Funds.
  
• Sept 26, 2003: [same]
  
• Jan 30, 2004: [same]
  
• Dec 1, 2004: [same]
  
• Jan 31, 2006:[same]
  
• Oct 1, 2006: [same]
  
• Oct 2, 2006: [same]
  
• Jan 1, 2007: Mr. Samra was employed by Harris Associates LP ... where he was a Senior Analyst on the Oakmark International, Oakmark International Small Cap and Oakmark Global Funds.
  
• Jan 28, 2008: [same]
  
• Jan 28, 2009: [same]
  
• Oct 1, 2009 (supplement): [same]
  
• January 13, 2010 (supplement): [same]
  
• Jan ___ 2010: [same]
  
• Jan 28, 2010: [same]
  
• Jan 28, 2011: [same]
  
• Jan 28, 2011, supplemented May 26, 2011: [same]
  
• Feb 1, 2012: [Removed prior history]

This suggestion by YBB is very wise indeed. Keep TIPS maturities <= 5 years. I frankly like the idea. So why go longer maturities? No two portfolios are the same. There are a 1000 ways to make potatoes in India. We must all solve for what works for us.
Incidentally I have been listening to a lot of Myron Scholes lately on this podcast:
https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/bio/myron-scholes-phd/
This podcast is available online for free and I listen to it on my phone while walking. He speaks fast and there are many complex topics but he is dealing right in the heart of all the topics related to portfolio construction. Listening to it is humbling because there is just so much to it even for the sophisticated investors.
None of this is supposed to be easy. But I do agree that YBB's suggestion is a step in the direction to make it easier.

If the idea is to keep up with inflation (CPI), shorter-term (=< 5 yrs) TIPS held to maturity would do that approximately. Then, roll them over and over. Make a ladder. Chart below shows CPI vs 2 common TIPS funds, ST and IT/LT; default timeframe is 1 yr but that can be changed.
Using funds introduces rate and duration factors.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=$$CPI,TIP&id=p06767927681

SCHW down 12.76% today. Part of a big sell off in financials. Re +.50% rate increase. Let’s wait and see. This Fed “toes the line” about as well as a drunken sailor. (Admittedly, they’ve been slip-sliding into the gutter lately.)

@sma - this is supposedly a free link

So far as I can tell it, it in fact is.
One thing to know is that when you get instant ‘Subscribe here / subscribe now’ popups or similar , just click x and close them; I had more than one, but when I got rid of them , carefully and patiently , there was the article in full , albeit pocked with house ads
but I was able to read the entire thing

Darn it! According to my WSJ subscription it's supposed to be a free link. Is this one any different?
Copy Free Link

Thanks Lewis. China exercises sovereignty over Hong Kong (unlike Taiwan and Singapore, at least not yet) and has steadily been tightening its control despite promising autonomy at the time of handover from Britain in 1997. I’m wondering if whatever risks one might ascribe to investing in China wouldn't bleed over, at least in part, to Hong Kong and that perhaps a fund like SIVLX shouldn’t be considered quite so China light.