Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • “Everything we deal with is significantly cheaper than it was six - 12 months ago.” - Howard Marks
    Howard Marks specializes in distressed debt ala junk bonds, bank loans, etc. Over the past several months I have continually read about how junk bonds offer value from various pundits. All the while it is one new low after another for junk bonds. So much so that the first half decline of 14% was the worst first half decline ever for the junk bond market.
    What is particularly ominous is how detached junk bonds have been from equities and Treasuries. Meaning while equities had a vicious bounce a few weeks ago, junk and bank loans just kept making new lows. While Treasuries are having a nice recovery presently still new lows in the risk on credits aka junk and and bank loans. Below is a link to Morgan Stanley’s outlook for junk. Sounds much more objective and reasoned than much of what I have read recently
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-recession-arrives-will-we-see-surge-corporate-defaults
    Edit: Obviously as with Treasuries recently, these markets can turn on a dime. And junk bonds are notorious for strong recoveries after bear declines. Coming off the 2008 bear market in
    2009 junk had the greatest credit rally of all time rising over 50%.
    Edit: Today’s action in junk bonds so far at least so far not as negative as it may appear. Although down, the junk ETFs are still trading well above Friday’s NAV meaning the open end may be up today.

    Probably much ado about nothing but have a 7% position in VWEHX and hoping to increase as 7% barely moves the needle. Liked how on Tuesday intraday with the Dow down 600 points the cash junk market was up. First time in many a moon I had seen that type of intraday divergence. Junk had a decent week but 2022 has been a year of fake out rallies so buyer beware.
    Funny how the intraday action of one day can set the tone for the weeks to come. Junk has been on a roll and on some days (like on July 5) regardless of negative action in stocks or bonds. We are coming off historic lows in default rates for junk bonds. So unless we are going to get the mother of all recessions with soaring default rates, junk offers a lot of value after its first half decline of 14%. Especially the junkiest of junk the CCC category. Bank loan/floating rate funds too are looking good. My 7% allotment there is now at 28% and increasing (and another 15% in floating rate) and in hindsight wish I had been far more aggressive. But then who knows, maybe yet again just another failed rally. Some pundits out there are saying based on the price action of last Friday and yesterday the stock market bear market is dead and over. We shall see.
  • Ukraine bond payments to be delayed
    AL JAZEERA: 20 July, 2022:
    Ukraine intends to postpone repayment of its Eurobonds and payments of interest on them for 24 months from August 1, according to a government resolution.
    The government instructed the finance ministry to hold negotiations with creditors on deferring payments by August 15 and promised additional interest on postponed payments.
    It also plans to postpone payment on the GDP-linked warrants to August 2024 from May 2023.
    image
  • CrossingBridge Funds 2Q22 Commentary
    From their website, https://www.crossingbridgefunds.com/
    CrossingBridge Advisors, LLC (“CrossingBridge”) was founded in December 2016 and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cohanzick Management, LLC (“Cohanzick”), which was founded in 1996 by David Sherman. As of June 30, 2022, the assets under management for CrossingBridge and affiliates were in excess of $2.76 billion
  • What's on your buy list?
    Been doing a lot of shopping lately.
    Last March I sold out my wife's inheritance, which was mostly in a regional utility. She has hopes of buying a small house in a location cooler than Arizona. So we decided to invest 25% of her funds.
    Her priorities were dividends and green investing as her "speculative" bet. And then some assets set aside to grow, i.e S&P 500, tech, and med tech. So this is what we agreed to:
    The following is copied from the rough notes I have in a spread sheet. Good thing I'm not being graded for formatting.
    20.00% Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ SCHD
    10.00% VictoryShares US SmCp Hi Div Vol Wtd ETF CSB
    8.00% Fidelity® Select Medical Tech and Devcs FSMEX
    8.00% Fidelity® 500 Index FXAIX
    5.00% Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF FYLD
    5.00% GLFOX Lazard Global Infrastructure
    5.00% WisdomTree Intl Hdgd Qual Div Gr ETF IHDG
    5.00% SPDR® Russell 1000® Yield Focus ETF ONEY
    5.00% Invesco High Yield Eq Div Achiev™ ETF PEY
    5.00% Principal Real Estate Securities Inst PIREX
    5.00% Invesco S&P 500® Eql Wt Cnsm Stapl ETF RHS
    5.00% Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight Utilts ETF RYU
    2.00% FSCSX
    2.00% TDV tech dividend
    2.00% Columbia Seligman Global TECH
    2.00% FTEC tech index
    1.00% TAN Solar
    1.00% First Trust Water ETF
    1.00% First Trust NASDAQ® Cln Edge®Offsetting
    1.00% iShares Global Clean Energy ETF
    1.00% Invesco Global Clean Energy ETF
    1.00% Invesco Global Water ETF
    As you can see, I bought baskets to represent tech and "green." I see enough moving parts in those fields that I wanted to encompass a variety of theses. For the alt energy funds I specifically avoided those with large stakes in Tesla. And also avoided China as well as I could.
    I have also been buying into beaten down funds in our IRA's, and my taxable account, whittling down our cash holdings. I tarried too long during the COVID debacle, so wanted to make a more muscular entry. Still plenty of cash for cushion, and for buying, if the autumn inflation and elections push markets another leg down; which would not surprise me in the least.
  • What's on your buy list?
    73% stocks. Of that amount, 8.15% is in 3 individual stocks. After their big slide, they're coming back up. I'm still DOWN quite a bit from my all-time high on 01 January, '22. I have moved most of my bonds into stocks, holding only one bond fund: TUHYX. The fund managers are holding 7% in cash for me, altogether. 20% in bonds, total. So, it's a more aggressive portfolio, intending to grab profit when the next upswing happens, following the current funk and expected recession. In stocks, I'm 34.21% in Financials. Let's just say I'm "early," not WRONG. LOL.
    What's on my buy list? If I did hold a cash stash, I'd buy POWW Ammo, Inc. and might jump into the Helsinki-based Nordea Bank ADR. NRDBY. But I'd wait for a pullback. It's on fire. I started a thread just lately about NRDBY. There's been thoughtful input from others, there. I'm still buying shares of ET in baby-sized bites when I can; it's hugely undervalued at the moment. It's a K-1 tax form Limited Partnership. Also, looking at GRIN. Grinrod Shipping out of Singapore. Funds? PRFDX TRP Equity Income. Defensive play right now, for the dividends.
  • ARK Transparency ETF will liquidate
    Tiny ETF with $13 million AUM. But the official reason for closure is that the Transparency Index provider (Transparency Global) is discontinuing index and ARK couldn't find a replacement.
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ark-investment-management-llc-announces-it-will-close-the-ark-transparency-etf-the-fund-ticker-ctru-301589562.html
    ARK website notice,
    "ARK Investment Management LLC Announces It Will Close the ARK Transparency ETF (the “Fund”)
    Ticker CTRU
    ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., July 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- ARK Investment Management LLC ("ARK" or "ARK Invest"), an investment adviser focused solely on thematic investing in disruptive innovation, was notified in July 2022, that Transparency Global will stop calculating The Transparency Index™ (TRANSPCY) effective July 31, 2022. While ARK investigated alternative Index providers, it did not find a suitable solution and decided to close the Fund effective July 26, 2022, or as soon as practical thereafter.
    The Fund will stop accepting creation units of the fund effective the close of business Thursday July 21, 2022 and the Fund will cease trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange (CBOE) as of the close of regular trading on the CBOE on Tuesday July 26th (the "Closing Date").
    Please see the full press release, including a more detailed description of the closing process, here."
  • ARK Transparency ETF will liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579982/000110465922080847/tm2221379d1_497.htm
    497 1 tm2221379d1_497.htm 497
    ARK ETF TRUST
    ARK Transparency ETF (CTRU)
    Supplement dated July 19, 2022 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) for ARK ETF Trust (the “Trust”) dated November 15, 2021.
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI with respect to the following series of the ARK ETF Trust: ARK Transparency ETF (the “Fund”). You may obtain copies of the Fund’s Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and SAI free of charge, upon request, by calling toll-free 855-406-1506, sending an email request to [email protected], or by writing to ARK Investment Management, LLC, 200 Central Avenue, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701.
    At a meeting held on July 15, 2022, the Board of Trustees of the Trust unanimously approved the liquidation, winding down and termination of the Fund, which is expected to happen on or about July 29, 2022.
    After the close of business on Thursday, July 21, 2022, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders, and after the close of business on Tuesday, July 26, 2022, the Fund will no longer accept redemption orders. The last day of trading of shares of the Fund on Cboe BZX Exchange (“Cboe”) is expected to be July 26, 2022. Shareholders should be aware that when the Fund commences liquidation, it will no longer pursue its stated investment objective or engage in any business activities except for the purposes of selling and converting into cash all of the assets of the Fund, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining proceeds or assets to shareholders (the “Liquidating Distribution”). During this period, the Fund is likely to incur higher tracking error than is typical for the Fund. Furthermore, during the time between market close on July 26, 2022 and July 29, 2022, shareholders will be unable to dispose of their shares on Cboe.
    Shareholders may sell their holdings of the Fund, incurring typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer, on Cboe until market close on Tuesday, July 26, 2022, at which point the Fund’s shares will no longer trade on Cboe and the shares will be subsequently delisted. Shareholders who continue to hold shares of the Fund on the Fund’s liquidation date will receive a Liquidating Distribution (if any) with a value equal to their proportionate ownership interest in the Fund on that date. Such Liquidating Distribution received by a shareholder, if any, may be in an amount that is greater or less than the amount a shareholder might receive if they dispose of their shares on Cboe prior to market close on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. The Fund’s liquidation and payment of the Liquidating Distribution may occur prior to or later than the dates listed above.
    Shareholders who receive a Liquidating Distribution generally will recognize a capital gain or loss equal to the amount received for their shares over their adjusted basis in such shares. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Shareholders should call the Fund’s distributor, Foreside Fund Services, LLC, at 855-406-1506 for additional information.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    Also,
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-19/cathie-wood-s-ark-shutters-transparency-etf-in-first-closure
  • CrossingBridge Funds 2Q22 Commentary
    Please find the CrossingBridge Funds' 2Q22 commentary, "In Flanders Fields", which was inspired by an October 2021 visit to the WWI Museum in Kansas City.
    I look forward to having you read (and share!) the commentary and hearing your feedback.
    https://blog.crossingbridgefunds.com/blog/q2-2022-commentary-the-flanders-fields
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    If you are concerned with performance over a brief interval like five years, especially the most recent five years, I can't imagine this discussion is relevant. Either EDGAR will give you the report(s) you need, and non-EDGAR sources will often be easier.
    My goal is different. I'm looking at historical performance over multiple decades, and more especially, year-by-year expense ratios. The pre-2000 reports, at least by Vanguard, contain year-by-year performance back 20 years or even to inception, which doesn't seem to be the norm for fund reporting today. Helpful when a fund has disappeared from M*
    Then as now the "Financial Highlights" section of the AR gives expense ratios for each of the trailing five years. So with mfs' help, I now have these back to 1989 (from 1994 reports), as opposed to being stuck at 1998, before I called for help. Prior to 1989 I go to my Wiesenberger yearbooks; and prior to 1945, to the 1939 SEC report.
    Yah, I don't get out much.
    Please help a dummy. I cant’ understand what is the practical significance of this research. Please show me how one could use this data to compare the 5 year total return of two otherwise similar funds. Or in other words is this data point useful?
  • Inverse-Head-and-Shoulder Formation
    Bottom formations consolidation since 6.17
    Qqq small caps iwm bottomed first...hope sp500 bottom soon usually 4 8 wks after
    USD
    UST10 YR 2YR downtrends maybe very good for stocks
    SLOW Moon from here hopefully lol
    All in vegasss
    Hopefully in 4 wks prob will not beg boss for more OT TRIPLE SHIFTS work covering stocks trading loss
    Today
    +7k tradings 3 hrs bull market
    -40k 3 hrs in bear 2 months ago
    Every one happy today
  • Inverse-Head-and-Shoulder Formation
    Bullish inverse-H&S formation is now seen in major indexes. While there are many estimates of where the markets may bottom, it is good that the mid-June lows have held so far.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p72077185553
    And even better the junk bond market has had several days this month of positive divergences with not only stocks but also Treasuries. A first in 2022.
  • Inverse-Head-and-Shoulder Formation
    Bullish inverse-H&S formation is now seen in major indexes. While there are many estimates of where the markets may bottom, it is good that the mid-June lows have held so far.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p72077185553
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    Here's a picture of the link to navigate (what Yogi calls backtracking) to the next level up:
    image
    For wonks: One can wind up at an unexpected "parent" page if one creates multiple paths (network organization) to a given page.
    See graph below. The blue lines present a "canonical" hierarchical structure. The red and green lines are alternative (network) paths.
    image
    Starting from the top, one may get to the third node at the bottom level two different ways:
    Follow the canonical hierarchy down: right, right, right, left; or
    Take an alternative path: right, right, left, right
    The latter follows a green edge (arrow) for the last step. Either way you get to the same place.
    When one backtracks, should it matter how one got to that node?
    There's no incorrect answer. If one says it should matter (path dependent) then one goes backward up the green arrow to the left. If one says it shouldn't matter (path independent), that the parent should be uniquely defined and one goes backward up the blue arrow to the right.
    Edgar's navigation takes the second, path independent approach. That's why "if one backtracks to general search page from either the new/current or Classic Edgar (and even the link provided by msf), one gets to the same search page/URL"
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    Rupal Bhansali is the chief value lady at Ariel. https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-influential-women-in-us-finance-rupal-j-bhansali-51646430102?mod=Searchresults
    Scott Black is a bottoms-up strategist who builds his own earnings estimates. While there are more opportunities for mistakes, this is a difficult detail work and there are only a few bottoms-up analysts/strategists. This is unlike many top-down strategists who start with broad macro picture about the economy and GDP and then arrive at some % estimate changes to SP500 earnings.
  • Barron's Midyear Roundtable
    I’ll accept responsibility for thread wandering off course. Here’s a mid-course correction. :)
    Having finished reading the Barron’s Mid-year Roundtable I’m struck by how dower / downbeat most of the participants sounded. Know little of BHANSALI but his her forecast for a lost decade doesn’t resonate with me. 10 year stretches where a diversified basket of equities don’t generate at least some profit would seem rare to me. Perhaps some hyperbole in his her assessment. Scott Black dates back to the 90s when I first began reading extensively about the markets. As far as I know a man of reason. He sees trouble ahead, a falling stock market. Gabelli is usually upbeat. Here, he’s neutral at best on the next several months, but thinks the markets will respond positively after the November elections.
    I’ve mentioned Abby Cohen already. She’s semi-optimistic, based it seems on the correction in valuations. David Giroux was the final contributor. Probably no surprise that he sees much value in the markets and has been spending down dry powder and adding equity positions. Still likes leveraged loans, but thinks the stock market offers better opportunities now. Cast a dour note on consumer staples, which surprised me. Likes tech.
    ISTM many (not all) of the stocks recommended by participants were in niche companies. Companies making batteries or the necessary components for EV vehicles comes to mind. While they would be fine in a fund or highly diversified portfolio, they seemed a bit risky for an average small investor to play around with other than a small spec position. Giroux? I wish he’d added more than he did. Can’t recall his saying anything in the interview about AMZ, but quite certain he owns and likes it. If any of them referenced the FX markets / strong dollar I must have missed it. And, I think that’s an important part of the equation.
  • Minimum and Maximum
    In my Roth, my max position size is 17.5% (I set position targets in increments of 2.5%). Anecdotally, I found early in my investing career that position size of 10% for a strong performing stock is enough to add a notable amount to portfolio. In some of the riskier asset classes (small caps) i have a total position of 15% or so, spread across 2-3 funds. Most of my holdings are are 5-7.5%.
    In my 401k, rebalancing and managing allocations is easier due to the platform my company uses. Even there I don't really have any position target below 5%, and I have an S&P index fund that is 25%. The fund options in my 401k is pretty underwhelming, which accounts for larger average allocation %.
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    Going into even more detail ...
    Step 1:
    Orig post: I think this is the result you got.
    https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=0000036405
    New post: Starting with mcq's search result
    Embedded link in new post is identical to URL given in orig post. It brings you to the page displayed below. Note the pre-filled starting date of 2013-08-12 (as far back as the new Edgar goes). Also note the "Classic version" link in the upper righthand corner.
    image
    Step 2:
    New post: Follow the "Classic version" link in the upper right corner to the classic result page
    Orig post: This "SEC classic" page ...
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0000036405&owner=exclude
    Embedded link in new post is identical to URL given in orig post. It brings you to the classic version of the results page.
    image
    Step 3:
    Orig post: ... links to filings all the way back to 1994
    New post: One has already navigated to the classic version of the results page. The only search remaining to do (for convenience) is to limit the results to the particular forms desired. One could instead scroll through all the results, all the way back to 1994.
    -----
    The links to the filings on this "classic version" results page are the "Documents" buttons. To "scroll" through all the results, one scrolls through the first 40 results and at the bottom of the page, clicks on the "Next 40" button to get the next 40 results, and so on. This takes you back to increasingly older filings until one reaches the 1994 filings.
    Instead of scrolling through every type of filing, one can limit the filings displayed to a particular type by entering that type (e.g. N-CSR, N-30D, 485) in the "Filing Type" box in the upper left hand corner and doing a search by clicking the "Search" button centered near the top of the page.
    That returns a very similar looking "classic version" results page containing only the specified type of files, e.g. N-30D:
    image
  • Calling EDGAR experts at MFO
    Arbitrating between yogibearbull and mfs, there may be a browser interaction issue.
    When I clicked on the middle link in mfs' initial reply:
    This "SEC classic" page links to filings all the way back to 1994.
    https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0000036405&owner=exclude

    I landed here:
    image
    Nothing about classic in the upper right corner. Maybe because I was using Chrome on a Windows 11 machine?? Who knows.
    Was my "archives" link found also by yogibearbull actually a link to EDGAR classic? I don't know.
    Either way, I'm grateful for the advice. It was rather entertaining to read John Bogle's shareholder letters back in the 1990s.
    Another tidbit: the V long investment grade bond fund was the "long corporate bond" fund in reports from the 1990s; and it got its start in 1973 as the Westminster Bond fund.
    Wellington. Wellesley. Westminster. Anybody else see a pattern here :-)