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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Champlain Emerging Markets Fund to close to new investors and liquidate (new)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890540/000139834422012839/fp0077295_497.htm
    497 1 fp0077295_497.htm
    THE ADVISORS’ INNER CIRCLE FUND II
    (the “Trust”)
    Champlain Emerging Markets Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated July 1, 2022 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”), each dated May 1, 2022.
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI, and should be read in conjunction with the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    Champlain Investment Partners, LLC (“Champlain”), the Fund’s investment adviser, has informed the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of the Trust that it is planning to exit the emerging markets asset class and cease offering emerging markets investment advisory services, including to the Fund, at some point in the near future. As a result of Champlain’s decision, Champlain recommended, and the Board approved, the closing of the Fund, effective as of the close of business on July 1, 2022 (the “Effective Time”), to new investments other than those made by current shareholders (that is, shareholders prior to the Effective Time) via systematic investment programs (“Permitted Investors”).
    Over the course of the coming weeks, the Board, working closely with Champlain, will consider the best course of action for the future of the Fund consistent with the best interests of shareholders. These possible courses of action, include, but are not limited to, the possible liquidation or reorganization of the Fund. Shareholders will be informed of the Board’s decision in this regard via a future supplement to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
    Champlain has represented to the Board that it will continue to manage the Fund in the best interests of shareholders and in accordance with the terms of the Fund’s Prospectus and SAI during this interim period.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    CSC-SK-021-0100
  • Time to invest in natural gas ?
    Dunno about Mosaic. I'm already in midstream ET. I'm holding onto it. If the price remains depressed, I'll buy more. It's a K-1 tax form Limited Partnership. Morningstar pegs it right now at a -43% discount to Fair Value. ($17.50 FV.)
    (Barron's FV estimate = $15.44. Does that simply need to be updated?)
    https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/et?mod=searchresults_companyquotes&mod=searchbarhttps://www.energytransfer.com/
  • At what point will the Fed cry “Uncle”?
    +1. Same question posed by hank, above. My guess, and it's just a GUESS--- is that to emerge from recession of whatever length and depth, there will need to be some unforeseen good news. An end to the war. (Let's hope.) Or China rising out of all covid lock-downs and renewed growth over there. Or a successful Iran nuke deal. Negotiations are right now ongoing. The interest-rate tool is like trying to kill a mosquito with a bazooka. Keep in mind: Mr. Market ALWAYS overreacts, whether to the upside or downside.
  • At what point will the Fed cry “Uncle”?

    My thoughts on the topic:
    -The Fed would prefer to just jawbone the capital markets to do the heavy lifting of slowing demand. (i.e. talk tough, but carry a wet noodle).
    -That might have worked if Jay "Helicopter Cash" Powell had begun tightening in mid-2021, instead of mid-2022. But Jay was all about being re-appointed to a 2nd term. By waiting a year ("transitory" talk), inflation expectations are now strongly embedded in the behavior of economic actors.
    -The only way to "kill" inflation is to kill demand. The asset bubbles need to be "pricked" to do so. Obviously some of that has happened. The Fed has a lousy history of avoiding recessions. To be fair, its a tough, nearly impossible job to "thread the needle" -- dampening demand "just enough", without pushing the economy into recession. Frankly, I wish Ben Bernanke were still running the show.
    If not for the scheduled Q/T, I would think the bond market would be through correcting. It still may be: if stocks continue to grind lower --- due to downward earnings revisions -- a good chunk of the capital may move into bonds -- thus offsetting the Fed's Q/T sales.
    _if the Fed is serious about killing demand -- and doesn't waiver, then a recession is my "base case". OTOH, if the Fed chickens out and "pivots", then a recession may be avoided --- but the cost will be higher, longer inflation, and a loss of confidence in the USD.
    [[An aside: there may be bigger issues than "just" the economy this time, geopolitical issues. How can the West "de-fang" Putin? - crashing oil prices. How might that happen? -- a global recession. And which currency benefits from a de-risk trade? The USD. The USD has been very strong (against fiats, but not commodities). But a higher USD (prompted by higher rates) would tend to exert further downward pressure on oil prices. This would put incrementally more "hurt" on Russian oil revenues.
    -So, I think bonds will find their final bottom b4 stocks. (Though stocks can have a countertrend rally any time, and July is usually an up month.)
    - I always remind myself to "be mindful of the calendar". Even if we get a relief rally, the damage YTD has been extensive. -- Traders will want to register tax losses b4 year-end. (For many institutions, the tax year ends 10/31). So price-action in the weeks before Halloween may provide an opportunity to put money to work as institutional sellers close out their loss-positions.
    -Mid-term election results may also provide a boost to the market in November -- assuming the SCOTUS Roe-reversal doesn't jinx a Red Wave result.
    -Housing prices have not fallen yet. But that is one big asset bubble which needs to be popped to dampen inflation. If mortgage rates continue to climb, I would expect some of the corporate buyers (e.g. Blackstone, etc) to unload some of their holdings, in favor of bonds. That might precipitate downward price action, as inventory (finally) expands.
    Given how 2022 is unfolding, 2023 may be lining up to be a good year. (3rd years of the Presidential cycle usually are)
    Just my 8 cents.
  • At what point will the Fed cry “Uncle”?
    Further, which investments are likely to prosper during the next chapter as the recession eases and growth resumes?
    @hank, a real good question that may even need its own thread. I'd be positioning for recession now. Growth after a recession may be a bit early. For me, I think the commodity futures bandwagon has slowed and at best might move sideways.. Oil/energy companies have been giving back their big return.
    Personally, I'm in the camp that a recession, if not inevitable, is the bet to play. I'm not going to change my portfolio equity percentage much, but I have been selling some and moving that equity money into financials VFH and health care, PPH. Both sectors hold up traditionally better in a recession. I've also increased my hedge fund, JHQAX.
    I'd be interested in other's thoughts for working the edges. It's too late for reducing my 45-50% equity portfolio allotment IMHO. I've ridden this down 12% YTD. But I would like to position equities traditionally per recession expectations, because if we aren't there already I believe we will be soon.
  • Stable Value (SV) Rates
    SVs are available only in workplace retirement a/c and their rates have gone up significantly. SVs guarantee principal and accumulated interest.
    Federal TSP G Fund is at 3%, https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate
    TIAA Traditional restricted RA is at 5.25%, flexible SRA at 4.75%, https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/142/tiaa-traditional-rates-monthly?page=2&scrollTo=690
    Taxable a/c alternatives include m-mkt funds, m-mkt accounts (by banks), T-Bills, short-term CDs.
  • Time to invest in natural gas ?
    Jerry Jones appeared on CNBC today where he got applauded for making more than $1B on a bet on Comstock (CRK), so maybe we would be late to the party at this point.
  • At what point will the Fed cry “Uncle”?
    The recent action in Treasury yields is down, counter to the year's trend. Meanwhile, HY effective yield is approaching 9%, about a 6% spread over 10y Ts at the moment.
    Looks like sentiment may be shifting for real to serious recession risk rather than risk of continuing massive inflation.
  • At what point will the Fed cry “Uncle”?
    If you haven’t noticed, commodities have tanked hard in recent days - not a sign of a booming economy.
    Crude oils and energy funds/ETFs fell considerably in the last two weeks. While this is one bright spot for this year, it is trending downward, perhaps due to slowing economy and demand. Crude oil future is down to $108 today whereas it was near $130 few months ago. Consumer discretionary (consumer spending in goods and services) is something important to watch.
    No doubt this year is very tough to stay afloat. When both equity and bonds are down simultaneously as most bonds did not offer protection against stocks. A topical 60/40 portfolio is down near 15+% YTD. And we are only half way through the year. Don’t think we are near the bottom.
  • At what point will the Fed cry “Uncle”?
    I hear you. The Fed and ECB will be playing catch-up for some time, attempting to tame inflation. But if production and consumption sink too far, you can bet they'll prime the pump again. After all is said and done, we'll end up with currencies that are worth about what the Filipino peso is worth right now: 1.8 cents, in US terms. In my own lifetime, I believe the Inflation Monster can be traced to LBJ. He had good intentions. "War On Poverty." But the Vietnam War buried him. And the US dollar. It was at about that time when families began to NEED two incomes to live decently.
    China is supposed to be a bright investing spot at the moment. I cannot see myself investing in China-land any more than I'd give my money to Rosneft. The Iron Curtain is up again. The world is in the midst of an economic re-shuffling that is rather unusual. De-globalization. You mention commodities. Still $5.59/gallon here. THAT'S not going to be remedied very soon. Production needs to ramp-up. PRNEX is in the doldrums, as is my ET. Bargain buying time. Bloomberg TV says 1st half of 2022 was WORST for Stock and bonds IN HISTORY. In HISTORY.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/29/22
    I did not expect bearish sentiment to drop nearly 13% from last week's 59% to this week's 46% but again we had a big move up in the equity market late last week.
  • FPA New Income Fund re-opens to new investors
    Thanks for posting.
    As of H1, the fund is down (2.85%). for any other bond fund, that would be a superb return on a relative basis.
    But unless they can pull a rabbit out of their proverbial hat, this may be their first ever losing year.
  • M*: "The report is no longer supported."
    Yes, this situation has been discussed in detail in the "M* screwing everything up again" thread. There's likely no fix for this situation.
    Thanks, OJ. Guess I stopped reading that thread a little too soon.
  • M*: "The report is no longer supported."
    As mentioned previous, the correct M* link requires a rebuild.
    This will take one to the M* page for a ticker.......just a few extra strokes.
    ---As before, click the ticker symbol
    ---right click Google search
    ---select incognito mode.......Google will load choices for the ticker
    ---scroll down 1 or 2 lines for the M* link
  • Oldest mutual funds: name changes
    I don’t think this is what you are looking for - but interesting, none the less.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-4-funds-launched-before-the-great-depression-still-deliver-for-investors-2017-01-07
    Thanks Rbrt. The oldest closed-end fund is older than the oldest open-end fund, and the closed-end category had far more assets at the end of the 1920s. So in theory, if I want to track the long term 'returns actually received by mutual fund owners' I would include these in my sample. Both the SEC 1939 report and Wiesenberger through at least the 1960s give closed-end expense ratios and performance.
    Unfortunately, almost all the early closed-end funds were leveraged, and most were not diversified common stock funds exclusively. And there was an enormous bust after 1929, on the order of the South Seas bubble, with incredible survivorship bias when examined from a later period. So, regretfully, I have (thus far) decided not to include closed-ended funds.
    But it's a choice I'll have to defend, and its good to be reminded of the Barron's piece.
  • M*: "The report is no longer supported."
    Yes, this situation has been discussed in detail in the "M* screwing everything up again" thread. There's likely no fix for this situation.
  • Money Market Rates - interesting again?
    One can't always believe what one reads. Especially from tertiary sources.
    Investopedia writes:
    Not every security will have the same settlement periods. All stocks are T+2, and mutual funds differ but are T+1 and T+2, depending on the fund. However, bonds and some money market funds will vary between T+1, T+2, and T+3.
    ...
    Correction—May 5, 2022: This article previously contained an error regarding the settlement date timeline for mutual funds.
    Fidelity also has apparent inconsistencies. Contrast the MMF prospectus excerpt Yogi provided with this writing in Fidelity's help section (bold in original): "How long does it take for a mutual fund trade to settle? ... Sells and buys of money market funds settle the same day"
    Investopedia is right on one point - settlement times of MMFs vary. Some MMFs settle T+1 and some settle T+0. Read their SEC filings. Examples of T+0 funds are the institutional shares of Blackrock MMFs.
    In their prospectus, the purchase and sale section of each fund reads in part: "To purchase or sell shares of the Fund, purchase orders and redemption orders must be transmitted to the Fund’s office ... You have until the close of the federal funds wire (normally 6:45 p.m. Eastern time) to get your purchase money in to the Fund."
    They really do settle same day. I've owned at least one of them. You can trade them through Merrill.
    One can infer from the prospectus that it's not up to the brokerage whether to settle the same day or not. If the brokerage carries the fund it must settle the same day.