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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What to do?
    Over the long term they do slightly better than FXAIX
    Do they do any better, or are you just looking relative to a particular moment in time (i.e. now)? Comparing their three year rolling cumulative returns by calendar years (e.g. Jan 2019-Dec 2021), the figures (from M* charts) are:
         2020-2022  '19-'21	'18-'20	'17-'19	'16-'18	'15-'17	'14-'16	'13-'15	'12-'14	'11-'13
    FXAIX 24.75% 100.32% 48.80% 53.10% 30.38% 38.28% 29.02% 52.54% 74.51% 56.77%
    SCHD 44.56% 90.14% 38.51% 45.45% 32.84% 40.22% 29.53% 48.09% 65.32% 56.42%
    CDC 38.27% 78.90% 27.03% 30.48% 31.78% 38.76% - - - -
    Over its lifetime (July 1, 2014 through Feb 10, 2023), CDC has done slightly worse than FXAIX, returning a cumulative 138.04% vs FXAIX's 143.78%.
    More importantly, all the cumulative figures ending Dec 31, 2022 are significantly skewed by FXAIX's sizeable underperformance in 2022 relative to the other funds: -18.13% vs -3.23% (SCHD) or -7.76% (CDC). (FXAIX has done better so far this year.)
    I'm not knocking any of these funds, and I can certainly see the point in suggesting dividend oriented funds to someone who has been focused on cash returns. It's just that there's a tendency for people to look at "what have you done for me lately" even when trying not to - sometimes it's baked into the numbers.
    For a set and forget fund that covers all bases ("foreign, global, world and U.S", and fixed income) one might consider VGWIX / VGYAX. Not an index fund, but still a low cost fund. Its 35/65 stock/bond mix may also suit someone moving from a cash portfolio. Funds with more traditional blends include VGWLX / VGWAX and CIBFX (though jumbo). A drawback of these funds (notably the Vanguard ones) is a dearth of EM investment. You may consider that a plus (arguably a more conservative approach).
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    I always received in the 'comments' section.................'talks to much' or similar …
    What an anachronism! You’re really dating yourself with that expression. In addition, your teacher wasn’t a very good speller. :) But, yes I remember the “talks too much” check-box on report cards when I was very young - and no doubt qualified.
    - Bonds? My dull mind sees 3.74% on the 10-year and reacts favorably.
    - Watching Bloomberg’s WSW from Friday, the lady from Invesco referred to the present as: ”The golden age of fixed-income.” Take that with a large grain of salt.
  • What to do?
    You might consider TSUMX, Thornburg Summit, balanced fund, has international exposure, focus is on provding total return over rate of inflation, younger folks runnng the fund, doesn't seem like they would retire anytime soon, no key person risk....if I had to only pick one fund outside of cash, tbills, CDs, MYGAs...maybe I would look in that direction...also would maybe look at BLNDX Standpoint if I had the conviction (which I'm not certain I do) that this might be one of the better funds over the next 10+ years...dunno.
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    'The MFO Cafe'. Well, it's actually more of a bar and grill place. One of the old places that doesn't have all the 'hard surfaces' of the newer bar and grills with too many tv's and 12 different programs being displayed with 'no' volume. Distractions in full view. At the MFO B&G one may actually have and hear conversation without screaming. The food? A mixed bag, so to speak; but not much of the menu would be considered 'Heart Smart', but the taste of the burgers and fries are amazing; and the food/beverage choices are 'very expansive'. And if one is so inclined, a wash down with an alcohol beverage is available in many descriptions.
    So, I'm glad that so many meet here, at this electronic Cafe. But, it sure makes it tough for one to try to present new information. But, this is a good thing, with all of the related information and discussions.The purpose is being served here.
    --- And the FED bobble-head of the week/day. Guess they just can't resist. But I've become fully tired of the endless banter; and the 'shout-outs' are not productive, IMHO. Do they continue to chatter because they're nervous about their actions?
    --- Well, I keep watching for bonds and equity to have that separation, you know; that negative correlation. Crap, they're traveling together again.
    --- Disinflation v Inflation snippet
    2022 used car/truck prices dropped -15%, but January, 2023 used car/truck prices up +2.5%. Folks might be giving more attention to those 2023 new auto/truck MSRP's or the printing on the window label is larger and more readable; OR they're running lower on money for such an expense and no longer willing to pay up. 'Course some new car/truck financing may be higher, too. Lots of dollars, regardless; for something 'new'; relative to many other needs in life.
    --- +1,932%. Well, not a profit return; but the yield increase of FZDXX and some other MMKT's from about a .22% yield in April of 2022, to date. Yield going a fair amount higher into summer time, IMHO; as the FED will continue the Fed Funds Rate.
    --- Thursday. WASHINGTON, Feb 9 (Reuters) Weekly jobless claims increase 13,000 to 196,000
    Four-week moving average of claims falls 2,500 to 189,250
    Continuing claims rise 38,000 to 1.688 million
    The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to a tight labor market.
    The jobs market has remained resilient despite growing economic headwinds from the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases. While labor market strength keeps the U.S. central policy on its monetary policy tightening path, it also suggests that a much anticipated recession is nowhere near.
    --- U.S.$ UP +.76% for the week.
    *** Bonds of most flavors got the big percent face slap this week. I'm still inclined towards IG bonds for the longer term, being year(s) not months; when the FED rates increases begin to stop and move downward. Duration right now is important for we investors, as the yield's for the short end are 'high'; as noted in the yield curve notations at MFO. At some point, when the economy finds a defined direction; longer duration will find a path. I keep watching for rotations with yields/pricing, as I lean more towards attempting to find the profit from pricing; but right now I'm happy with the +4% yields of a MMKT. This was not the case in April, 2022.
    A good day to you.....
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---Several selected bond funds returns since October 25, 2022. I'll retain this date, as it is a recent inflection point when bonds began to have positive price moves. We'll need to watch if this was just a 'blip'.
    NOTE: I've kept the prior dated reports in the beginning of this thread; and have added YTD to this data.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, Febuary 6 - Febuary 10, 2023
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MMKT yield continues to move with Fed funds rate and ended the week at 4.47% . The core Fidelity MMKT's have continued a slow creep upward to 4.18%. The holdings of these different funds account for the variances at this time.
    --- AGG = -1.4% / +1.72% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.06% / +1% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.32% / +.27% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.12% / +1.84% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1.66% / +1.45% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.49% / +1.16% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.02% / +.54% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.08% / +.52% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.5% / +3.18% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -3.1% / +4.1% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -4.3% / +5.65% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -4.5 / +5.9% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +6.8% / -7.6% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -9.3% / +10% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -1.4% / +1.88% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -2.5% / +2.52% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.0% / +3.67% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -2.1% / +2.05% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -.74 %/+3.5% (VanEck HY Muni
    --- MUB = -.68% /+1.75 (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -2.8%/+1.86% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -1.24% / +6.14% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -1.77% / +8.3% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.47% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022.
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Can’t read Morningstar’s “analyst ratings” because I don’t subscribe.
    Try your local library. As I'm typing this, I have the M* analyst (AI) report open from my library.
    Here’s the lead-in from Morningstar’s site …
    ”A middling Parent Pillar rating and a subpar People Pillar limit Invesco Gold & Special Minerals A to a Morningstar Quantitative Rating of Neutral.”
    But when you look at their overall rating for the fund, displayed more prominently at the top of the same page, it shows 5 stars.
    This turkey aside, what is it about Morningstar’s methodology that causes a “middling” fund, in their own words, to receive a 5-star rating?
    As others have commented, star ratings are objective, retrospective. Analyst ratings are subjective, prospective. And worse if done by machine.
    Beyond that, I'm rather skeptical of the value of the parent pillar. That pillar encompasses a variety of attributes, some of which IMHO don't contribute to forecasting accuracy. (I've been meaning to do some more research here and write something up; may still get to it.) Here, the middling rating appears to be because the family's funds are all over the map, not showing many areas of strength.
    The weak people pillar comes in part from the computer's assertion that the sole manager, Li, has not yet shown "themself" good at running this strategy. One wonders what a machine "thinks" it needs to recognize good performance beyond a 5* rating from someone who's managed a fund for a quarter century. A great example of why I pay little attention to M*'s 'Q' ratings.
    ISTM Invesco already had an (inferior) gold fund when they bought out Oppenheimer. Did they essentially “axe” the superior Oppenheimer fund and its management and then apply that name to their own inferior fund - moving the invested assets into it as well?
    Yogi answered this. To complete the details: Invesco merged Invesco Gold & Precious Metals (FGLDX) into Invesco Oppenheimer Gold & Special Minerals Fund (OPGSX), not the other way around, near the end of 2019.
    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/invesco-announces-changes-to-its-us-etf-and-mutual-fund-product-lines-300974616.html
    fork over additional $$ to see what their analysts really think about a fund.
    Fork over money and you still won't get to see what their analysts think about this fund (or many others). You'll just get to see what their computers "think". For the very little that is often worth.
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    ”Same manager since 1997” Thanks for the follow through Yogi. Very interesting.
    Somewhere I heard this fund was more volatile than most but also more profitable. I’ll confess to often reading a forum that’s quite focused on gold / miners. And while I’m strictly an amateur observer there, it appears from what I read that there are stark differences in how different p/c mining companies have fared in recent years. Apparently this relates to the “sporadic” quality of various mines they own. Some have prospered while others have lost tons. Possibly OPGSX is intentionally investing in the under-performers as a longer term play.
    I guess it bothers me that M* allows fund houses to post its “4 and 5 star” ratings (I’d imagine in return for compensation) as testimony / advertisement for their funds on their websites and than undermines that very rating in publishing critical reviews for readers willing to fork over additional $$ to see what their analysts really think about a fund. ISTM they’re making $$ on both ends here.
  • What to do?
    Yes, COWZ is up already by 7.5% YTD on saturday, 11 feb, '23.
    SCHP= TIPS. (Schwab.)
    FCBFX. 58% in triple B. (Fidelity corporate.)
    HYMU. Munis. (Blackrock.)
    Balanced: DODBX. Over 15 years, it's in top 7 percent of category. +7.63%.
    Global stocks: YTD +8.42%. (TRP.) PRGSX . Over 15 years: +7.82%, top 18% of category.
    52 USA. 43 foreign, presently.
    Maybe SCHP is an Indexer. None of the others.
    VMIAX. Basic Materials/Chemicals. (Vanguard. Stinky service.). YTD +6.49%. Over 15 years: +7.47, top 22 percent in category.
    Single stocks for steady dividends: BHB. (I own it.) Regional bank in Northern New England. HQ in Bar Harbor, Maine. That's where Acadia National Park is. Branches in ME, NH, VT.
    O is the mother of all REITS. Over 15 years, it's up by +10.45%. Dividends to reinvest. But I don't know how they keep doing it. The payout ratio is a huge, out of line number... But REITS are different animals, too. Since 1994, the stock is up by +730%. That's not a typo.
    (Among REITs, I own PSTL. But it's still rather young.)
    "Happy Motoring!"
    "No, No, NO! Don't open that closet!"
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    Same manager since 1997.
    Gold-mining has been terrible for B&H and being top performer in category for 3,5,10 years doesn't mean much. * ratings are based on past performance only within the category, and overall * rating is a weighted average of *s for 3, 5, 10 years.
    Analyst ratings take into account several factors besides the past performance. However, Analyst ratingsQ are computer-generated and are hard to read or make sense out of. It's NeutralQ here. May be M* can train ChatGPT to do a better job.
  • Tom Madell and Lynn Bolin articles
    MikeW, funds both authors like include Vanguard Global Wellington/Wellesley. It was suggested to look at balanced/target funds with a value/global tilt. I'm not at Vanguard, and have not found better Global Balanced fund alternatives that have similar tilts. Lynn made a compelling case for Avantis, AVGE, with its value, SC, and foreign holdings, and within its 10 fund holdings, numerous Great Owls...perhaps paired with some bonds as a DIY balanced fund. I'm somewhat concerned about its low volume.
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund

    Morningstar Ratings 101: What You Need to Know
    "A 5-star risk rating indicates that a fund has been among the market's top performers in terms of risk-adjusted return over the past three, five, or ten-year period."
  • Why Are You Seeing So Many Bad Digital Ads Now?
    Surprisingly relevant to big tech investing:
    https://nytimes.com/2023/02/11/technology/bad-digital-ads.html
    Advancements in digital advertising technology were meant to improve users’ experience. People interested in shoes are intended to get ads for sneakers and loafers, and not repeated pitches for courses teaching seduction techniques. And the technology is supposed to filter out misleading or dangerous pitches.
    But lately, on several platforms, the opposite seems to be happening for a variety of reasons, including a slowdown in the overall digital ad market. As numerous deep-pocketed marketers have pulled back, and the softer market has led several digital platforms to lower their ad pricing, opportunities have opened up for less exacting advertisers….
    ….But advertising experts agree that crummy ads — some just irritating, others malicious — appear to be proliferating. They point to a variety of potential causes: internal turmoil at tech companies, weak content moderation and higher-tier advertisers exploring alternatives. In addition, privacy changes by Apple and other tech companies have affected the availability of users’ data and advertisers’ ability to track it to better tailor their ads.
    Then, there’s the economy: A survey of 43 multinational companies representing more than $44 billion in advertising spending, conducted last fall by the World Federation of Advertisers, found that nearly 30 percent planned to shrink their marketing budgets this year. Clorox, which budgets hundreds of millions of dollars a year to advertising and promoting products like Burt’s Bees lotions, Brita filters and Pine-Sol cleaners, said this month that it was beginning to streamline its marketing, which included cutting back on spending.
    Digital ad spending, while still growing overall, “has decelerated precipitously,” according to an analysis last month by the research firm Insider Intelligence.
    Twitter seems to be faring the worst. The company has struggled to retain top-flight advertisers since Mr. Musk took over as owner in October, amid fears of a proliferation of hate speech and misinformation on the platform. Its 10 largest advertisers last year spent 55 percent less during Mr. Musk’s tenure than they did a year earlier, with six of them spending nothing so far in 2023, according to estimates from the research firm Sensor Tower. Twitter has offered buy-one-get-one-free deals, discounts and bonus incentives to lure back advertisers, media buyers said.
    But advertising troubles have hit the biggest publicly traded social networks, too. Snapchat’s parent company last month posted its slowest-ever rate of quarterly growth and projected a sales drop for the current quarter. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, said ad sales at YouTube slipped nearly 8 percent in the latest quarter.
    Last year, Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, reported its first decline ever in quarterly revenue (it fell again last quarter). Ad prices on Facebook and Instagram fell 24 percent in the last quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, according to the investment bank Piper Sandler.
  • 0DTE
    @catch22, thanks for showing full StockCharts search on "VIX".
    So, I NOW see Stockcharts symbols for VIX for 9 days $VXST, 3 months $VXV, 6 months $VXMT (none for 1 year).
    StockCharts also has MORE data. Here are the charts for $VXV and $VIX, and my previous observation is seen clearly - the 2 are quite similar but 9 days VXV is slightly higher than 30 days VIX.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$VXST&compare=$VIX&id=p42404218433
  • Taxability of 2022 state checks
    "The IRS is aware of questions involving special tax refunds or payments made by states in 2022" (Feb 3)
    Today (Feb 10):
    The IRS has determined that in the interest of sound tax administration and other factors, taxpayers in many states will not need to report these payments on their 2022 tax returns.
    This means that people in the following states do not need to report these state payments on their 2022 tax return: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Alaska is in this group as well, but please see below for more nuanced information.
    In addition, many people in Georgia, Massachusetts, South Carolina and Virginia also will not include state payments in income for federal tax purposes if they meet certain requirements. For these individuals, state payments will not be included for federal tax purposes if the payment is a refund of state taxes paid and either the recipient claimed the standard deduction or itemized their deductions but did not receive a tax benefit.
    See the full IRS guidance page for details.
    https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-issues-guidance-on-state-tax-payments-to-help-taxpayers
    For most, this is good news. Had the checks been taxable, it would have raised AGI and potentially wroght havoc on ACA subsidies, IRMAA, Roth contributions, etc.
  • 0DTE
    There are already VIX for 9 days (VIX9D), 3 mo (VIX3M), 6 mo (VIX6M), 1 yr (VIX1Y).
    Just as the regular VIX (for 30 days) uses SP500 options that bracket 30 days +/- 7 days, VIX9D brackets 9 days options (unclear by how many days +/-).
    These symbols are also recognized by Yahoo Finance as ^VIX9D (with very limited History), etc, but not by StockCharts (only $VIX is recognized among these). Both have quite a bit of History for regular ^VIX or $VIX.
    Yahoo Charts for 1 mo for ^VIX and ^VIX9D look similar although ^VIX9D values are slightly higher. For ^VIX9D, the Yahoo Summary page chart is good for 1D, 5D, 1M, YTD, but nothing else. The Yahoo Chart and History tabs doesn't pull any data.
    My guess is that CBOE is looking into even shorter-term VIXnD whose brackets may include 0DTE.
    VIX9D
    https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/vix9d/
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^VIX9D?p=^VIX9D&.tsrc=fin-srch