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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TRP. TOTR. ETF
    Let’s frame the question differently. If you had bought 100 grand of it on Dec 31, 2021 how would you feel today? It’s not cheap,,, it’s leveraged and it’s duration is problematic in these times. And it’s trailing my grandson’s piggy bank by how much YTD?
  • TRP. TOTR. ETF
    ....And who will steer me away from putting money into Total Return ETF right about now? Dividends look healthy. Performance = down -13% ytd. How low will it go? For what it's worth, M* rates it gold, but with no stars yet: too young. Would you call this "Core-Plus?"
    https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/tools/fund-research/etf/TOTR
  • M* screwing everything up again
    Not a website. But $1.99 a month gets you a fantastic tracker if you use IOS devices. I’d guess I’ve spent about 6 hours over the weekend mostly just learning my way around - plus setting up multiple portfolios. One emailed question to support was promptly answered, Not the easiest to learn, but has unbelievable functiinality (like automatically designing a pie-chart of each portfolio you enter). Amazing.
    Here’s what I added to my previous post above:
    “Footnote: I am thrilled with the “Portfolio Trader” app from Apple’s App Store. Beautiful layout and functionality compared to the M* tracker. Like driving a modern Ferrari compared to an old mini-van. Unfortunately, it takes a few hours to sort it all out. But at $2 monthly, they’re giving it away. And - yes. There is capability to import or export data for those who wish to do so. I need to follow it for a week to make sure the daily quotes are timely and correct. Currently they are spot-on.”
    Link to above tracker: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/portfolio-trader-stock-tracker/id581430942
    Here’s an Article purporting to describe “The 12 Best Stock Portfolio Trackers”.
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing
    "there are few viable alternatives."
    Well, the returns are not going to be great, but at least safety is guaranteed with the establishment of a CD ladder using CDs offered by FIDC insured banks. The concurrent "10-Year CDs @ 4%" thread discusses some of the aspects of purchasing brokered CDs.
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing

    The next question is how to prepare for it on your asset allocation/investment vehicles so you can survive it better. Challenges today is that the traditional bonds and equities are falling at the same time and there are few viable alternatives.
    I just keep investing as usual - but tack a few extra years on to my investment “time horizon” every time I add another holding. Out to 30 years now, at which time I’ll be 105. Eat well. Keep cycling. Should make it!
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    See this chart for ARKK and short SARK with 2-yr view (change if defaults to 1-yr). Note that ARKK continued with another down-leg after SARK started in November 2021. So, start of SARK didn't lead to bottoming of ARKK.
    So, start of short Bitcoin-futures ETF by itself may not indicate bottoming for Bitcoin or cryptos. This long weekend, Bitcoin touched $17,649 and then rebounded strongly - will it hold? (see 5-day view in the 2nd link below; so much for Jan Van Eck, the head of IVZ saying in Barron's, 6/13/22, that Bitcoin may bottom around $30,000, LINK).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=ARKK&compare=SARK&id=p81436041708
    https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/BTC.CM=
  • Crypto next cycle to start by Q4
    Well, now that it's already down about 70% from its ATH, this is a decent indicator the bottom may be in for Bitcoin, at least for a while...lol
    ProShares to Launch the First U.S. Short Bitcoin-Linked ETF on June 21
    https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220620005101/en/ProShares-to-Launch-the-First-U.S.-Short-Bitcoin-Linked-ETF-on-June-21
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing
    According to research cited in this PDF, over the past 60 years only one true
    soft landing occurred when the Fed hiked to/above the "neutral" rate.
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing
    Observant1 + 1 - Larry Summers + 1. Maybe this time is different !?
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    My question still remains from above post.
    "@yogibearbull : The CD I bought at Schwab starts on 6/22 - ends7/22. I take it Chuck is using the money as "float". Could this be instead of the bank paying a fee ? CD was purchased about 10 days ago.
    Thanks YBB, Derf
    So who is using my CD money from time of purchase until the actual starting date of CD ?Purchase was made appt. 10 days from start of CD start date 6/22.
    Is it possible that 6/22 to 7/22 is the last start & ending period to make the buy of that particular CD ?
    I have noted - & + value on CD as reported by dtconroe.
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing
    Interesting. An 80% probability prediction is more than I would expect to result from a Fed model. Hopefully, it will be mild if it occurs. That's my base expectation......
    The oil price shock caused by the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait is cited here as the "straw that broke the camels back" cause of the 1990 recession.
    Early 1990s recession in the United States
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    On the Schwab CD quote page, under New Issues, they organize the CDs by term (1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 9 month, 1 year, 18 months, 2 years........), and the listings are only for FDIC insured banks. For each Bank listed, they then give a clear statement of the coupon interest rate it is paying, the frequency of interest rate payments, and what the Maturity date is for the CD. Again, I discussed all of these details in conference calls with Schwab representatives, and the subject of my call was to ensure there is no difference between CDs you buy directly from a bank, compared to CDs you buy from the banks through the brokerage. I am confident that that information is correct. However, I did not do additional extensive research on each bank to determine if they are "financially shaky banks", to use your terminology. I will say that your statement above, about Brokered CDs fluctuating in value according to bid/ask is accurate, and in my conference calls with Schwab, they did not acknowledge that difference from CDs offered directly from banks. When I monitored my CDs in my account, I did see those daily values changing very frequently, and that was a surprise to me. I called my regional Schwab representative back, she acknowledged that "they could have done a better job with that aspect of the description brokerage CDs", but she then connected me with the CD office at Schwab, who assured me that those fluctuating daily values are "just paper values", and if I held those CDs to maturity, I would get all the coupon interest accurately quoted on their CD brokerage page, and on the maturity date I would have CD amount distributed back into my account cash account. I do believe that there are some differences in the penalties, for early selling of the CDs, between brokerage bought CDs and Banks, so you need to be fully aware of those penalty differences if you have any plans on doing that.
  • NY Fed Sees 80% Probability of Hard Landing
    From Today’s WSJ:
    The U.S. economy is very likely on a path to shrink this year and next, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report said on Friday. According to how the New York Fed models the economy’s path, the report said that “the chances of a hard landing…as occurred during the 1990 recession are about 80%,” while the probability of a “soft landing,” in which gross domestic product essentially remains positive over the next 10 quarters, is 10%.
    * The ellipsis marks reflect editing by the WSJ and not by me.
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    ADVANCE to the 12:00 minute mark for a brief lesson on how “rainy day” time deposit withdrawals work.

  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    @yogibearbull : The CD I bought at Schwab starts on 6/22 - ends7/22. I take it Chuck is using the money as "float". Could this be instead of the bank paying a fee ? CD was purchased about 10 days ago.
    Thanks YBB, Derf
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Fido is showing their current CD ladders as follows:
    1 yr = 2.14%
    2 yr = 2.75%
    5 yr = 3.14%
    When you click on these "CD ladders" at Fido, you may end up with some questionable CD issuers.
    Their FZDXX money market fund is giving .86% (7 day yield).
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Yup, Bought 1 month CD @ 1% at Chuck's place. I'll wait for the next rate increase to see if I will buy another month or go longer.
    Differ strokes for differ folks, Derf
  • 10-Year CDs @ 4%
    Schwab is offering a 2 year CD at 3.10%, a 18 month CD at 2.7%, 12 month at 2.65%, 9 monrh at 2.1%, and 3 month at 1.8%. It takes a minimum of $10,000 for a CD. I am expecting these rates to increase substantially during the last half of 2022. Longer term CDs do not interest me.