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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • media economy coverage
    So, one famous maker of blue jeans hired Vietnamese workers because they could be paid in peanuts. The jeans were manufactured, finished, ready to wear. Then they were shipped to Saipan.
    Reread the article you cited. All the manufacturing was done in Saipan, USA.
    The island of Saipan is in the US Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas Islands (CNMI). Beginning in the 1980s, many clothing manufacturers had their garments made in Saipan because such items could be labelled “Made in the USA”. ...
    In 1999, three separate lawsuits were filed in US state and federal courts against numerous American retail apparel companies and Saipan-based garment factories.
    That's a way of circumventing US labor laws; nevertheless, those workers were employed in the USA, which is all that the label "Made in the USA" communicates. It represents jobs, not wages or working conditions.
    For a product to be called Made in USA, or claimed to be of domestic origin without qualifications or limits on the claim, the product must be "all or virtually all" made in the U.S. The term "United States," as referred to in the Enforcement Policy Statement, includes the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. territories and possessions.
    https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/complying-made-usa-standard
    Side note: I haven't been able to verify the statement that these were Vietnamese workers. The Business & Human Rights piece cited in turn cites an SFGate (SF Chronicle) piece saying that "The lawsuit claimed that thousands of workers, including many from China and the Philippines ...".
    An extensive piece on this suit can be found here:
    http://www.natcath.org/NCR_Online/archives2/2001c/090701/090701a.htm
    According to U.S. government reports and information contained in lawsuits, garment workers from China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand and elsewhere pay $2,000 to $7,000 per worker to obtain jobs in the Mariana Islands that frequently have them working 12 hours a day, seven days a week for $3.05 an hour, often without overtime pay.
    ...
    in 1998, then-Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt spoke of the relationship established between the U.S. Congress and the Mariana Islands in 1976 that was intended to provide a transitional economic stimulus but which has produced an experiment “gone horribly awry. It has created a plantation economy, dependent upon the massive importation on a continuing basis of low-paid, vulnerable, short-term indentured workers.” Babbit called the situation in the Northern Mariana Islands a “disgrace.”
    Most of the garment workers in Saipan come from China.
    That was then. Now:
    The Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007 ... included a provision to apply U.S. minimum wage to the CNMI [Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands], increasing the CNMI’s minimum wage in periodic increments until it reached the federal minimum wage of $7.25, which it did on September 30, 2018
    https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-105271.pdf
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    It's here; it was mislabeled on YouTube, but you can tell from the "1 day ago" notation, and one of the guests at one point says something like "and here we are, January 27, and" blah blah.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    ”All Barron's Roundtable interviews were done in NYC on January 9. Info is released piecemeal in 2-3 weekly installments (3 this year).”
    Thanks Yogi - Should have checked date of interview. A bit surprised it’s that old. So much has happened in both the equity & bond markets since then. The 10-year is quite a bit lower in yield (higher in price) than earlier in the year. A lot of other investment grade bonds keys off of it. So I wouldn’t be backing up the truck on AAA / AA stuff at the moment, but what do I know? Giroux’s bond recommendation is for lower rated stuff - the reason I thought it worth posting. And some here understand the lower rated tier much better than I do. Perhaps they’ll chime in.
    Yes - Sonal Desai from Franklin Templeton is a pleasure to read / listen to.
    -
    @MIkeM said, “Maybe they are using this platform to drive up price on their picks.”
    Let us hope not! If it were me I’d probably offer up 4 good picks and one that I was hoping to dump. But ISTM that would be illegal as hell - if it could be proven. Honestly, David Giroux is the last person on earth I’d expect such shenanigans from.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Another class FKIQX and FHYQX are no-load/NTF at Fido with min $1,000.00 (also at Schwab with min $100.00).
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    I searched Bloomberg and YouTube yesterday evening but didn't find an episode for 01/27/2023.
    Just searched again with same results.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Yes, I always pay attention when she's on-air. Of course, most of what she's pushing are Franklin products. For comparison:
    FHYVX. $100k threshold.
    Yield: 4.35%
    E.R. 0.55%
    Performance YTD: +3.78%, in 51st percentile among peers.
    (Franklin typically requires a front-load. Dunno, in this case.)
    ****************
    HYMU threshold = the cost of one share. (ETF. $22.02 today.)
    Yield: 4.02%
    E.R 0.35%
    YTD: +4.36%, in top 22% among peers. But are junk bond ETFs in a different category altogether, re: FHYVX?
    https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/blogs/meet-the-manager-sonal-desai
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Extra-topical - But makes you wonder why he was high on AMZN a year ago when it was 30% more expensive but fails to mention it this year?
    Thanks @hank. I was reading this segment of the round table this morning. A quick look at PWRCX's top 10 equity holdings shows about a 2% stake in Amazon. It also shows he's owned it since 2016. It' gone up a ton since then. I actually hope he bought more at the start of this year. I bought a little myself.
    I don't believe these people are giving secrets as to what they are buying or selling at the moment in most cases. They are likely stating what anyone can already find in their portfolio in hindsight. Maybe they are using this platform to drive up price on their picks.
  • media economy coverage
    jesus fucking christ
    anyone can be a nerde* about this:
    https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/selling-american-made-products-what-businesses-need-know-about-making-made-usa-claims
    https://www.ftc.gov/business-guidance/resources/complying-made-usa-standard
    This is almost as comical as getting woke wrong, CRT wrong, 1619 wrong, mixing in car audio and god knows what all.
    you k, bruh?
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Sonal Desai from Franklin Templeton focused on income and bond funds. LINK1 LINK2
    "5-yr TIPS; FRIAX (hybrid); CPREX (private real estate); EADOX, FHYVX, IGSB, SIDCX (Part 3); gradually increasing duration."
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @hank. thank you. Yes, interesting. PRWCX is still 36% of portfolio, here.
    "I echo the view expressed here that fixed income hasn't been this attractive in a long time. We invest in high-quality high-yield bonds and high-quality leveraged loans—issuers whose Ebitda isn't volatile and that have a large EV [enterprise value] cushion, relative to their debt."
    I wrote on a different thread about bonds just yesterday. Things run in cycles, yes. So today's King of the Road will be next year's Loser, often. For now, I'm loving the ride on these particular ponies:
    SCHP (TIPS, not junk.)
    HYDB
    TUHYX
    PRCPX
    Bonds are up to 32% of my portfolio today. And a soft rain is falling here in Honolulu.
    Of course, with over $50M at his disposal, uncle David is able to play with INDIVIDUAL bonds, with their much bigger thresholds. Morningstar shows PRWCX holding 31.46% of its portfolio in bonds. That might be stale, by now.
  • media economy coverage
    +1 I think capitalism in the US became too used to free/low cost labor based on the prevalence of slavery, indentured servants and convict leasing-and thus American capitalism doesn't value labor.
    Exploiting Overseas Foreign Workers still goes on today. Perfectly legal in many places. Permitted, acknowledged, expected. But if the economy turns south and there's a cut-back in hours, those workers, under contract, are slaves, tied to that location. Bed and food provided. But when they don't make much money? Well, they simply don't make much money. It was happening under the U.S. flag in Saipan until the GWB years, when the gummint put a stop to it--- in THAT particular place. No cheap labor? Then we'll go elsewhere, said the clothing companies.
    ****************
    A related story: US law permits manufacturers to claim a garment was American made if just one step in the process is done on US soil. So, one famous maker of blue jeans hired Vietnamese workers because they could be paid in peanuts. The jeans were manufactured, finished, ready to wear. Then they were shipped to Saipan, where a flag and logo was sewn onto the back pocket. The slogan said: "Made in the USA." As the French would say: "Merd."
  • media economy coverage
    +1 I think capitalism in the US became too used to free/low cost labor based on the prevalence of slavery, indentured servants and convict leasing-and thus American capitalism doesn't value labor.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    Some thoughts on bonds from David Giroux, manager of PRWCX, in this week’s Barron’s:
    * “My last recommendation is a bond. I echo the view expressed here that fixed income hasn't been this attractive in a long time. We invest in high-quality high-yield bonds and high-quality leveraged loans—issuers whose Ebitda isn't volatile and that have a large EV [enterprise value] cushion, relative to their debt. You can get yields of 7% to 8% today in the high-yield and leveraged-loan market without taking on bankruptcy risk.
    “My pick is the Hub International 7% coupon unsecured bond that matures on May 1, 2026, trading for $99. This is a bond that tends to be reasonably liquid, given its large size, and should be able to be purchased through most, if not all, brokerage accounts. Hub is one of the largest private midmarket insurance brokerages. It is an attractive business with low capital intensity, long-term organic growth in the mid-single digits, and low cyclicality … “

    The above is Giroux’s final (fifth) recommendation. For what interest it may hold, following are the 4 equity investments he recommends:
    - GE HealthCare Technologies GEHC $58.95
    - Avantor AVTR $20.07
    - Fortive FTV $65.54
    - NXP Semiconductors NXPI $159.63
    * Excerpt & additional information from: Barron’s “Roundtable III” - January 30, 2023 print edition.
    Extra-topical - But makes you wonder why he was high on AMZN a year ago when it was 30% more expensive but fails to mention it this year? But I digress …. :)
  • media economy coverage
    Nuance, details and context matter. Making generalizations about the 1619 Project is foolish. (And “foolish” is a polite word for what I think of doing this.) The original 2019 publication in the NYT magazine was 100 pages of ten different essays by ten different authors on different subjects. The project has since grown to be over 600 pages. To just dismiss the project in its entirety is equivalent to picking up a book of essays by various authors, reading one, and saying “this book stinks.” In fact, such generalizations without reading the material smack of prejudice, i.e., to prejudge a group of essays in this case without giving them a chance. (And again, “prejudiced” is a less inflammatory word for what I think describes people who dismiss without reading the 1619 Project.)
    I’ll be specific and honest. I have not read the entire Project. The essay that interested me, which I’ve previously discussed here, was the one on “low-road capitalism” by Matthew Desmond because of its direct relationship to subjects discussed on this board: https://nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/14/magazine/slavery-capitalism.html
    The question that fascinates me in this essay is whether the institution of slavery influenced how capitalism in the U.S. functions today—how labor is treated, how certain investments such as mortgage bonds came to exist and how profit generation in a still capitalist system might be different if we took the high road instead of the low one.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23
    Market breadth extremely strong and remain elevated past 3 4 wks
    Part due to Tsla good er sustain rally last few days
    See what will uncle Powell say in two wks. Maybe another consecutive 0.25 0.25 then stop. Inflation appeared improved compared 6 months ago
    It's been a reasonable onpar Earning weeks so far
    Just like that everyone forgot we had massive draws down in tech -40 45% last year /68% retracement in cryptos
    Nasdaq sp500 all past 200 days ma past 24 48 hrs... Most of my cover call options expired itm didn't expect 10 12% swing in few wks
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 1/25/23
    From Barron's:
    By Alex Eule Friday, January 27
    "The January Effect. Stocks closed out another strong week, with the Nasdaq Composite, in particular, benefiting from the 2023 rebound. The tech-heavy index rose another 1% today, pushing its weekly gain to 4.3%. It's the Nasdaq's fourth-straight week in positive territory.
    The S&P 500 rose 0.25% on the day and 2.5% on the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was essentially flat on the day but still up 1.8% this week.
    As investors look toward an end to rate hikes, growth-focused tech stocks have been the primary beneficiary. The Nasdaq is closing in on its best January in more than 20 years. With two trading days to go, the index is up 11% on the month, its best January since a 12.2% gain in January 2001.
    For a lot of folks, the '01 callback will come with bad memories. At the time, the market was still dealing with the dot-com crash. After the strong January, the Nasdaq went on to fall 30% through the rest of 2001. Ultimately, the Nasdaq didn't find its bottom until October 2002."
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Jan 28 Episode
    McLennan will examine the risks of monetary and fiscal tightening amidst high debt levels in the U.S. and discuss the types of companies that can succeed despite these challenges.


  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Took just a smidgeon from both PRWCX and PRNEX and combined the amount from them both to buy PRCPX (junk bonds) shares.
    Portfolio X-Ray now shows:
    7% cash
    51 domestic stocks
    9 foreign stocks
    32 bonds