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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Looking for TCHP …..
    @hank, may be edit the Subject to fix the ticker. Thanks.
    BTW, bid-ask displayed over the weekends (or, when the markets are not open) are stub/fake quotes, not real at all.
    Yes. I took a screen shot when I did a test buy today. It shows: Bid $14.45X2 and Ask $000.X0 with volume of 117,543. So figured something was off.
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    There’s an extensive interview with Summers in Barron’s this week. He reiterates and expands upon the same points of view voiced on the show. I also record the show.
    What I enjoyed most on the most recent program was the brief 1971 clip of a youthful Louis Rukeyser pointing out the track of the Dow Jones over the previous 5 sessions. It appears that back than more importance was attached to the Dow than other indexes.
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via a Twitter post,
    https://twitter.com/ayeshatariq/status/1538469641722413062
    image

    The Russell 2000 is a flawed benchmark.
    As was mentioned, it includes many unprofitable companies since it doesn't screen for profitability.
    Also, the Russell 2000 index reconstitution process enables front-running.
    The S&P 600 is a better small-cap index.
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    @Observant1. It worked! No pop-up message, either. Maybe my ad-blocker did that?
    Glad it worked for you!
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    “More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 declined today.
    It’s the 5th time in the past 7 days.
    Since 1928, there have been exactly 0 precedents.
    This is the most overwhelming display of selling in history.”

    I don't know the significance of this particular event.
    Looking at the broader picture, it appears that market volatility will be high in the coming months.
    An extended period of low inflation and "easy" money is behind us.
    The Federal Reserve is aggressively raising the Fed funds rate and has implemented quantitative tightening. There are several current, influential events - Ukraine war, COVID-19, supply chain issues - where the final outcome is unknown.
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    @Observant1. It worked! No pop-up message, either. Maybe my ad-blocker did that?
  • PREMX / Issue?
    There were rumors on Twitter that Europeans were putting pressure on Ukraine to reach some negotiated settlement and energy got hit - XLE fell by 17-18% in a WEEK. But some pointed out that if these rumors were true, the rest of the market (i.e. non-energy) should rally, but that didn't happen.
    Utilities had been strong in the face of rising rates but people were piling into it. That reversed last week and utilities fell 9-10% last WEEK.
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    While the fwd P/E for small-cap (SC) R2000 has dropped dramatically, R2000 has many unprofitable companies (30-40% ?). Looking at more selective SP MC 400 and SP SC 600, those fwd P/Es have also dropped dramatically. See these charts by Yardeni via a Twitter post,
    https://twitter.com/ayeshatariq/status/1538469641722413062
    image
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    I find Calum Thomas's Chartstorm useful for overall market trends. Basic version is free.
    This week he makes the important point ( as have others) that despite the rapid decline in SP500 etc, and the historically fast drop in the P/E to 15 or so ( a level closer to bottom in other bear markets ave 12) the earnings estimates this is based on are still very high historically.
    https://chartstorm.substack.com/p/weekly-s-and-p500-chartstorm-19-june?r=3fg9z&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
  • PREMX / Issue?
    I compared PREMX and PRELX to ETFs EMB and LEMB. Shown are 1-yr charts - Price funds held up better in 2021 but are doing worse YTD. Things have been difficult and bad for almost everything. Last week even energy and utilities got taken out and shot.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=PREMX&compare=EMB,LEMB,PRELX&id=p77876593522
  • PREMX / Issue?
    Formerly great fund. Once popular here.
    Off -19% YTD … -21% 1 year. Chart resembles wet spaghetti. Seemed to turn down fast.
    Was this Russia - or what - that caused such a drastic turn?
    Their unhedged PRELX seems to have managed to outperform, which makes no sense.
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    I saw that same article. I cannot read it because I do not subscribe, but am heartened by it. Morale builder for me, with 35% of portfolio now in Financials. That, of course, includes Asset Managers. PRISX. Also, BHB. And BHB just paid a divvy on Fri, 17th June: 4.01% yield.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519072-bar-harbor-bank-growing-small-cap-new-england-bank-yielding-4-1-percent
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    +1 Thanks for info hank. I may buy a small amount in my Fido ira just to track it.
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    Here’s an additional excerpt from the same article -
    It now trades cheaply at 10.5 X projected 2022 earnings, and yields 4.5%. T. Rowe Price also has one of the industry's best balance sheets, with $3.5 billion, or $16 a share, of net cash and fund investments. “Among active managers, it's best-of-breed,” says Warren. “The current multiple of 10 to 11 times is unheard of for T. Rowe.” Warren has a fair value of $155 for T. Rowe's shares. The stock historically has traded for 15 times (projected earnings)
    (I’m not a fan of TRP personally. And think it’s a bit early to be buying any of these.)
  • Barron’s likes asset managers
    From current issue - BlackRock is their top pick. It’s stock value is back to 2018 levels. These firms are a play on an eventual rebound in stock prices and a revival of investor interest.
    Re T. Rowe Price, Baron’s recommends the stock, but mentions some recent problems at the firm:
    “T. Rowe Price has taken one of the biggest hits in the sector, with its shares down 46%, to $106. The former investor favorite has had outflows, and the performance of its growth-oriented mutual funds has been dismal this year. One of its flagship funds, T. Rowe Price New Horizons (PRNHX), is down 40% this year.”
    Others mentioned as attractive acquisition candidates (no particular order):
    Franklin Resources
    Invesco
    AllianceBernstein
    Article: Asset Managers Are Worth Buying Now - by Andrew Bary
    FWIW
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    Over the past month, losses among sectors have been fairly uniform. Overweight investments in the energy and utilities sectors mitigated my overall YTD stock market losses until then with the past week hurting my portfolio the most. It appears to me the stock market decline has recently entered a new, more generalized selling phase as it moves towards it's eventual bottom. So, I suspect the 90% down days information at the start of this thread represents more than random event -- particularly if it truly spans almost 100 years of data. Every cycle is different and the recent Fed activism adds a new wrinkle. But, even so, I wonder if history could provide useful information to those who are able to read it.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    :). Funny you should mention that. I hold both PRWCX and (my wife's T-IRA) is in BRUFX. It's a very stinky year. But we are riding it out. YTD I'm down -18.2%. That does include just 3 single stocks, which are not a great big piece of the portfolio yet.
    RIDING THE STORM OUT:
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    “Mary Ellen has 43 years of investment experience managing a broad range of fixed income portfolios. She is responsible for the formulation of fixed income strategy as well as the development and implementation of all fixed income asset management services. Mary Ellen serves on the board of Baird Financial Group, is President of the Baird Funds and is chair of the Baird Diversity Steering Committee.” Source
    Currently age 64. Must have begun managing money at 21. The Bond Bull began 2 years later.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Another possibility is BRUFX (Bruce fund). Like DODBX its stock holdings are large value, while PRWCX/TRAIX is large growth. But while DODBX has a 49% turnover, Bruce is only 4%. So in a non-tax-deferred account your after tax return is higher with BRUFX than with DODBX (9.54% vs 9.08% average over last 3 years and 7.62% vs. 6.97% average over 5 yrs. ), but 1 and 10 yrs DODBX did better.) I think that TRAIX and BRUFX complement each other. You need to buy Bruce directly from them, but it is easier to hold as it is considerably less volatile (3 yr beta of 0.95 vs 1.34 for DODBX and 1.04 for the T. Rowe Price offerings.). Bruce's site is www.thebrucefund.com
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    In 2008/09 this indicator only led to more declines. Another market tidbit courtesy of Charlie Bilello. This year to date ranks as the third worse start for the S@P since 1928. In the previous seven worst starts the S@P always closed the year higher than it’s June 17 close.