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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    I started wondering what would happen if all the "real car" (not SUV, not truck) manufacturers simply picked up their marbles and went home. Reuters reports:
    Automakers may spread the tariff cost between U.S.-produced and imported models, cut back on features, and in some cases, stop selling affordable models aimed at first-time car buyers, as many of those are imported and less attractive if they carry a higher price tag.
    ...
    Affordable models most likely to be affected include the Honda CR-V, Chevy Trax, Subaru Forester, Chevy Equinox and Honda HR-V, said Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox.
    "Car makers know they have certain vehicles in their portfolio that can tolerate lower profit margins," Keating said. "Some vehicles may just prove to be too expensive, and most of those are affordable models manufactured outside the U.S."
    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-car-buyers-face-higher-prices-less-choice-under-trumps-tariffs-2025-03-28/
    Instead of halting sales, manufacturers might simply stop building inside the U.S., especially if those cars are going to be heavily tariffed anyway (foreign parts).
    Car Manufacturing Plant Shutdowns Could Cost Half a Million US Jobs
    In response to potential new tariffs from the Trump administration, Japanese car manufacturers Honda and Toyota, which sold more than 3 million cars in the US last year, are considering shutting down production at some or all of their US plants.
    ...
    Together, Honda and Toyota have 18 US auto plants and employ more than 55,000 workers across 13 states.
    ...
    If Honda and Toyota were to shut down production, even briefly, those plants would send unemployment rates skyrocketing—in some areas by more than 30 percentage points. The newly unemployed workers could stretch state and federal safety net programs through claims on unemployment insurance benefits, Social Security Disability Insurance benefits, or other kinds of support.
    ...
    Shutdowns would also cause indirect effects: individual and corporate income tax revenue would decline; companies that produce tires, glass for windshields, and steel for car frames would all be affected; and unemployed auto plant workers would have less money to spend in restaurants, movie theaters, and retail stores. Using estimates from the Economic Policy Institute of employment multipliers—the number of other jobs that would be affected by an auto plant closure—we can see that plant shutdowns could cause an additional 410,000 jobs to be lost.
    https://www.urban.org/urban-wire/car-manufacturing-plant-shutdowns-could-cost-half-million-us-jobs
    (good tables and graphics in the piece)
  • Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    Stable-Value (SV) Rates, 4/1/25
    TIAA Traditional Annuity (Accumulation) Rates
    Rates down by -25 bps; early release
    Restricted RC 5.25%, RA 5.00%
    Flexible RCP 4.50%, SRA 4.25%, IRA-101110+ 4.50%
    TSP G Fund 4.250% pending (previous 4.250%).
    Options outside of workplace retirement plans include m-mkt funds, bank m-mkt accounts (FDIC insured), T-Bills, short-term brokered CDs.
    #StableValue #401k #403b #TIAA #TSP
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1926/thread
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    That would pose undue hardship for many budget minded families, including us.
    As those who like pickup trucks and SUV, they will see a lot more then $4K increase; something more like $10-15K!
    Here is a Barrons article on price hike.
    https://msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/trump-tells-car-companies-not-to-raise-prices-why-that-s-bad-news-for-gm-and-ford/ar-AA1BQFCo?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=17ad90f53b8e4891e4bdd6a7c9aaf876&ei=2
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    The earning season is coming and it won’t be pretty. There may be better buying opportunities ahead after 10%+ pullback. At that point, the valuation may return to the nominal range.
    The FED is in a tight spot right now with slowing economy and worsening inflation from tariffs. Some members suggested 2 rate cuts this year. I would say there may be none as the tariffs war is only starting.
    Edit: Another point is that we may be marching toward stagnation and that can be really bad. Stocks fall, and the FED may have to hike the rates instead.
    https://axios.com/2025/03/28/pce-index-inflation-trump-tariffs
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Brings to mind the following comment.
    "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose any voters."
    - Donald J. Trump, 01/23/2016
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    3/28- This, thanks to a lead by @Crash. Edited excerpts from a report by CNN:
    Florida debates lifting some child labor laws to fill jobs vacated by undocumented immigrants
    Florida has been working for years to crack down on employers that hire undocumented immigrants. But that presented a problem for businesses in the state that are desperate for workers to fill low-wage and often undesirable jobs.
    Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state legislature have a potential solution: children. The state’s legislature on Tuesday advanced a bill that would loosen child labor laws, allowing children as young as 14 years old to work overnight shifts. If the new law is passed, teenagers would be able to work overnight jobs on school days. They are currently prevented from working earlier than 6:30 am or later than 11 pm per state law.
    The bill passed through the Florida Senate’s Commerce and Tourism committee on Tuesday with five votes in favor of the loosened child labor restrictions and four against them. The bill will pass through two other relevant committees before being put to a vote with the full Florida Senate. DeSantis is supportive of the law and has been vocal of cracking down on immigration, echoing President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. However, economists have warned that could backfire, sparking further inflation and labor shortages.
    “Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally, when you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts, college students should be able to do this stuff,” DeSantis said last week at a panel discussion with border czar Tom Homan, as first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
    The state has been easing up on child labor protections for years. Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing home-schooled 16- and 17-year old teens to work any hour of the day.
    The state’s Republican-led legislature on Tuesday will debate the new law, which also includes a number of changes including eliminating working time restrictions on teenagers aged 14 and 15 if they are home-schooled and ending guaranteed meal breaks for 16 and 17 year olds.
    The number of child labor violations in Florida has nearly tripled in recent years, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
    Comment: Does anyone seriously believe that the children of the upper classes will be included in these young workers?
  • TCW MetWest Intermediate Bond Fund reorganization
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1028621/000182912625002146/tcwmetro_497.htm
    TCW METROPOLITAN WEST FUNDS
    TCW MetWest Intermediate Bond Fund (the “Fund”)
    (I Share: MWIIX; M Share: MWIMX)
    Supplement dated March 28, 2025 to the Prospectus and
    the Summary Prospectus, each dated July 29, 2024, as supplemented
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and the Summary Prospectus and any previous supplements. It should be retained and read in conjunction with the Prospectus and the Summary Prospectus and any previous supplements.
    On March 27, 2025, the Board of Trustees of the Fund, having determined that a reorganization of the Fund would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders, voted to approve a form of Agreement and Plan of Reorganization to reorganize the Fund with and into TCW Core Plus Bond ETF, a newly-created exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) (the “Acquiring Fund”), which will be a series of TCW ETF Trust (the “Reorganization”).
    Pursuant to applicable law (including the Investment Company Act of 1940) the Reorganization may be implemented without shareholder approval. The Reorganization is expected to occur in June 2025 and is expected to be a tax-free reorganization for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Additional information about the Reorganization will be made available to shareholders in a combined information statement/prospectus prior to the Reorganization date.
    The foregoing is not an offer to sell, nor a solicitation of an offer to buy, shares of the Acquiring Fund, nor is it a solicitation of any proxy. Because the Fund is expected to reorganize into the Acquiring Fund on its reorganization date, you should consider the appropriateness of making a new or subsequent investment in the Fund prior to its reorganization date. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, strategies, fees and expenses of the Acquiring Fund and/or the Fund carefully before investing.
    Prior to the Reorganization date, a combined information statement/prospectus will be included in a registration statement on Form N-14 that will be filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). After the registration statement is filed with the SEC, it may be amended or withdrawn and the combined information statement/prospectus will not be distributed to shareholders unless and until the registration statement becomes effective. Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when they become available because they will contain important information about the Reorganization. After the materials are filed, free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s web site at www.sec.gov. These materials also will be available at https://www.tcw.com and a paper copy can be obtained at no charge by calling 1-877-829-4768.
    Shareholders should retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • Affordable compact cars could be first to see rising prices from tariffs
    Following are edited excerpts from a current report in The Washington Post:
    The Trump administration’s 25 percent tariffs are likely to lift costs for virtually every car, analysts say, but popular brands like Toyota, Honda and Subaru are among the most vulnerable.
    Car costs, which have already spiked 20 percent since the pandemic, are expected to get another jolt in coming weeks, with the Trump administration’s newest proposed tariffs likely to add thousands of dollars to manufacturers’ sticker prices. It’s unclear exactly how and when prices will start ticking up, but analysts say brands such as Lexus, Toyota, Honda and Subaru are likely to be among the first to face higher costs because they have the smallest stockpiles of cars already in the U.S.
    “We’re going to start seeing prices rise almost immediately,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, who expects an average markup of $6,000 per car. “Some of the most affordable vehicles — compact SUVs, for example — are made outside the country, so they’re going to be the most vulnerable.”
    In addition to lifting car prices, economists say the new tariffs will stifle global production and cut into U.S. economic growth at a time when there are already signs of strain. Consumers, who account for roughly 70 percent of the country’s economy, are beginning to pull back in the face of high costs and elevated interest rates. Further price increases could put a freeze on the sale of motor vehicles and parts, which accounted for about 20 percent of the economy’s growth in late 2024.
    “You take a $40,000 car — now it’s a $45,000 or $50,000 car,” said John Luciano, owner of Street Volkswagen, a dealership in Amarillo, Texas, where roughly 80 percent of cars come from overseas. “There is no way around it, these tariffs are going to be brutal.”
    “Even if you’re thinking, ‘I’ll just go buy the most American car I can think of — a Ford F-150,’ it’s really not that simple,” said Joseph Yoon, consumer insights analyst at the automotive research site Edmunds. “Half the parts on that truck are from Canada or Mexico.” "For a lot of people, it’s the second-biggest expense after housing, and it’s how they get to work”. “Car prices are already the highest they’ve ever been, and now you slap a 25 percent tariff on them — that means customers will stop buying. It’ll be a hit to the economy.”
    At Glassman Automotive Group in Southfield, Michigan, the automotive group’s president said that an additional spike in prices would push car buying further out of reach for many. “It’s going to affect all the brands I sell — Hyundai, Kia, Subaru,” said George Glassman, who employs about 120 people. “No one really knows just yet whether this means you’ll be $2,000 or $3,000 or $7,000 more for a car, but it’s going to create an incredible disruption to the overall industry.”
    “One of the main goals of the tariffs is to reshore production, to bring manufacturing back from overseas,” said Abby Samp, an industry economist at Oxford Economics. “There’s probably some scope for that, but it is going to involve a significant amount of investment, and it will raise costs for U.S. manufacturers and households.”
  • Is US Stock Market Outperformance Sustainable?
    "The US stock market is by far the best one long term."
    I believe US stocks will perform well in the long-term
    and most stock investors should have a healthy allocation to the US.
    This does not necessarily mean the equity portion of their portfolios should be 100% US equities.
    For example, wouldn't it have been beneficial for retirees (presumably withdrawing from portfolios)
    to have foreign stocks in addition to an S&P 500 fund during the "Lost Decade"?
    "So, it boils down to timing and trading."
    No, it really doesn't.
    Numerous studies have indicated excessive trading often leads to lower returns.
    It boils down to creating a sensible investment plan with an asset allocation
    suitable to an investor's risk tolerance/risk capacity,
    and then sticking to the plan (making adjustments as needed based on life changes).
    Some investors may find it helpful to work with a financial advisor to develop this plan.
  • Fido’s “basket” option
    Yesterday a dividend was received from one of the 9 CEFs. But it was “reinvested” into the fund (as I’d previously established) separately. In other words, the share total in the “basket” for this fund did not increase. Rather, a new position in the fund for the amount of the dividend received appeared in the more traditional folder at Fidelity (chump change)
    CEFs often declare divs weeks before the payable date. Perhaps that's the issue.
    When don’t dividends reinvest into my basket?
    Only dividends generated from shares held in a basket prior to the ex-dividend date will be allocated to the basket. Dividends from shares held outside of the basket, or in a basket on or after the ex-dividend date, will be allocated to the account. All subsequent dividends will be proportionately allocated based on these rules.
    https://www.fidelity.com/direct-indexing/customized-investing/faqs
    While all the shares in question could be sold, only the option to sell a specific number of shares surfaced. No way to sell a dollar amount
    This sort of order is often called "fractional shares". Fidelity provides fractional share transactions on stocks and ETFs. Apparently not on CEFs. Are other brokerages different? For example, Schwab 's fractional shares (what it calls "Stock Slices") is restricted to S&P 500 stocks.
  • Fido’s “basket” option
    Just short of chaos is how I’ll rate this newfangled “basket” option at Fido.
    Yesterday a dividend was received from one of the 9 CEFs. But it was “reinvested” into the fund (as I’d previously established) separately. In other words, the share total in the “basket” for this fund did not increase. Rather, a new position in the fund for the amount of the dividend received appeared in the more traditional folder at Fidelity (chump change). When I was unable to transfer that amount into the “basket” and merge it with the larger holding I could not. Called Fido for help. I was assured the dividend would “recycle” over night and be combined into the larger position.
    The above failed to materialize after 24 hours. This morning I cancelled the free one month basket enrollment online. According to Fido’s literature, cancelling should have taken all basket holdings out of the basket and placed them into the original account folder with everything else. Did not happen. I tried moving “all” manually. No go. I tried moving some individually and was told by their robot I couldn’t move any out unless I set the allocation back to 100% for all the ones left behind in the basket. ? ?
    I called Fido again today. They tried to help. We got all but 2 funds out of the basket. Two remain with target allocations of 50% each. I am assured no trades will execute as a result of this. I am a told the remaining funds will be captive to the basket until my “free trial” expires in about 25 days from now. (As far as I can tell, there’s no real significance to this.) To see where the account stood, I attempted a test sale from a couple of the former and current basket inhabitants after market open. While all the shares in question could be sold, only the option to sell a specific number of shares surfaced. No way to sell a dollar amount. As if trying to sell or buy across 9 basket funds isn’t difficult enough … it will now be even more difficult with my having to convert dollar sums into shares for each of the 9. Fortunately, this shouldn’t be necessary very often.
    Ahhh - Tread carefully. If your dividends can’t be reinvested back into the Fido basket, over time it will distort the weightings and make managing the basket cumbersome.
    PS - The basket approach from an investment standpoint is working as expected. It’s running 1-2% ahead of the diversified allocation fund the money came out of - albeit most of that a result of 1 fortuitous trade. The overall daily volatility is lower with the basket of CEFs compared to the previous allocation fund. But six weeks is too soon to say. The CEFs are roughly evenly divided between bonds and equities. As of this morning the bond portions are hare having a nice day.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Throughout history ruling classes have done whatever it takes to create an underclass equivalent to financial slavery, to perform labor that is ruinous to health and long life. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration is intent upon choking off any type of support for low-income Americans, which will eventually force them into the farm fields to replace the workers who are now being deported.
    3/28- This, thanks to a lead by @Crash. Edited excerpts from a report by CNN:
    Florida debates lifting some child labor laws to fill jobs vacated by undocumented immigrants
    Florida has been working for years to crack down on employers that hire undocumented immigrants. But that presented a problem for businesses in the state that are desperate for workers to fill low-wage and often undesirable jobs.
    Florida’s Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and the state legislature have a potential solution: children. The state’s legislature on Tuesday advanced a bill that would loosen child labor laws, allowing children as young as 14 years old to work overnight shifts. If the new law is passed, teenagers would be able to work overnight jobs on school days. They are currently prevented from working earlier than 6:30 am or later than 11 pm per state law.
    The bill passed through the Florida Senate’s Commerce and Tourism committee on Tuesday with five votes in favor of the loosened child labor restrictions and four against them. The bill will pass through two other relevant committees before being put to a vote with the full Florida Senate. DeSantis is supportive of the law and has been vocal of cracking down on immigration, echoing President Donald Trump’s rhetoric. However, economists have warned that could backfire, sparking further inflation and labor shortages.
    “Why do we say we need to import foreigners, even import them illegally, when you know, teenagers used to work at these resorts, college students should be able to do this stuff,” DeSantis said last week at a panel discussion with border czar Tom Homan, as first reported by the Tampa Bay Times.
    The state has been easing up on child labor protections for years. Last year, the legislature passed a law allowing home-schooled 16- and 17-year old teens to work any hour of the day.
    The state’s Republican-led legislature on Tuesday will debate the new law, which also includes a number of changes including eliminating working time restrictions on teenagers aged 14 and 15 if they are home-schooled and ending guaranteed meal breaks for 16 and 17 year olds.
    The number of child labor violations in Florida has nearly tripled in recent years, according to US Department of Labor statistics.
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    There are a lot of parallels. Cheeto even renamed Mt Denali back to its former name of Mt McKinley. McKinley lasted 5 months into his second term …
  • Removal of Reliable Economic Data
    Would it be possible that by removing advisory boards it might be easier to cook (even maybe overcook) the government books?
    You mean like redefining words to mean what the government wants them to mean (thank you Humpty Dumpty)?
    Reuters: US Commerce Secretary wants to remove government spending from GDP
    ECONOMISTS ARE WARY
    Economists cautioned against changes to the current national accounts structure as it would make GDP very volatile and difficult to get a clear view of the economy's health, creating more uncertainty.
    "I don't think the stock market, the financial markets would like that," said Sung Won Sohn, Finance and Economics professor at Loyola Marymount University.
    It would also be impossible to compare the U.S. economy's performance against its global peers.
    Looking at the private sector alone would not give the full picture on growth, Sohn said.
    "Economic growth over time would become a lot more volatile. The reason is, when the economy slows or, when we are in a recession, for example, the government spends a lot of money," he said.
    Removing government spending from GDP would distort the figure as government productivity is assumed to be zero whatever the production is in the computation of GDP.
    "It's imperative that we keep the current system because, we need to make comparisons, and it's important to know how well we are doing compared to a year ago, five years ago, 10 years ago, and we can learn from our mistakes," Sohn said.
  • Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 2/28/25
    Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 2/28/25
    Some shift out of stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $39.79 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $397.9 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
    OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 60.36%, Hybrids 4.24%, Bonds 17.81%, M-Mkt 17.59%
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1924/thread
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    "Having a vehicle to go work while earning a living and feed your family is NOT an American Dream!" - Bessent. Yes, downgrade our lives, oh wise ones! And yet, we shall continue to blindly follow thee. We are not worthy.
    Project 2025 running strong.
    Stoppage of SS checks would be a defining moment.
  • Ultra-ST ICSH Prospectus Supplement
    Changes for Ultra-ST ICSH (ER 8 bps) relate to a switch from maturity-based to duration-based portfolio construction. The name will change too.
    Current Name: iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond Active E.T.F.
    New Name: iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active E.T.F.
    https://www.ishares.com/us/library/stream-document?stream=reg&product=ISHICSH&shareClass=NA&documentId=1253480~2338529~1094609~2317799~2253106~2252037~1870754~1896230&iframeUrlOverride=/us/literature/prospectus/p-ishares-us-etf-trust-active-10-31.pdf
    Other Ultra-ST ETFs https://etfdb.com/etfs/bond-duration/ultra-short-term/
  • Donald Trump announces new 25% tariffs on all imported cars and car parts
    Be ready for the price hike for just about all name brands. So much wins with these tariffs and their impact on inflation.
    https://apple.news/A8j5V1-XQTu6Gk1aIVZJZQA
    Treasury secretary Bessent stated that " “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.” Having a vehicle to go work while earning a living and feed your family is NOT an American Dream!
    https://cnbc.com/2025/03/06/treasury-secretary-bessent-says-the-american-dream-is-not-about-access-to-cheap-goods.html