SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet.

The S&P 500 ended with a 0.3 percent gain, but not before plunging to a point where it was more than 10 percent below its Jan. 3 record. That kind of drop, called a correction, doesn’t happen often, and is a marker of investors’ souring attitudes toward stocks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/business/economy/us-stock-market-correction-territory.html
That was as of Jan 24th. Today the S&P 500 again dipped below its Jan. 3 peak (hitting a low of 4287.11 per Yahoo). Does it really matter whether the index drop is "technically" a correction? What's the difference between dropping 9.99% and 10.01%?
As the NYTimes puts it, "The 10 percent trigger for a correction is an arbitrary, round-number threshold. But it serves as a signal that investors have turned pointedly more pessimistic about the market."

Giroux favors the big ones. Probably out of necessity at this point. GE was his top pick in the recent Barron’s roundtable. Also Amazon and Kerug/Dr. Pepper. OAKBX also leads it by a few % points.
To be down that much in less than a month is concerning. Either the markets have it wrong (which I doubt) or he does.
In recent cnbc interview (late December) he mentioned waiting for more “blood” on the street before buying. So … chances are he’s nibbling. And, as I reported a week ago, he’s jacked up his leveraged loans. I think I’ve heard the lower rated paper isn’t doing so well presently. That’s one thing about OAKBX - they were mainly investment grade paper as I recall. D&C plays a bit in high yield, but not to the extent Giroux appears to be.

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TRP Floating Rate PRFRX is now 8% of my stuff. The only holding that's above the zero-line so far in 2022. (Apart from a minuscule position in ENIC, the Chilean Electric utility, which pays a tiny supplemental "interim" dividend on Friday.) Yes, as of tonight, 25th Jan, PRWCX is down -6.2% YTD. I'd be adding, if it were strategically sound for me to do so.
TUHYX HY is down -1.44% YTD, too. Also 8% of my stuff. But these are long-hold positions for me.
***********************
PRWCX. Microsoft 7.5%
Amazon. 5.27%
GE. 4.4%
PNC. 3.8%
YUM 3.7%
Yes, "da BIG ones!" As @hank said.
PRWCX is still my biggest holding, at one-third of total assets, which includes a bit of stuff which is NOT with TRP. YTD, my stuff is down precisely -4.0%. It could be lots worse.

Giroux has a fantastic long term record. SP500 is about 9% off its last peak so this isn't even technically a correction yet. I track the rolling 36 month average of a fund to make hold/sell decisions, three weeks is wholly insufficient imo to make any kind of determination.

PRWCX/TRAIX has an excellent long-term record, so I’m planning to stick with it. It’s losing about 72% of the S&P 500 index YTD. This is about on par so far with what it dropped in 2008 relative to the S&P.

Tech and growth funds are down closer to 15%

Correction is 10% loss;20%loss is bear market;50% loss is a crash. 2020 qualified as a short-lived bear market-perhaps computerized trading will lessen the length of bear markets going forward.

It's a difficult question to answer, and the most honest one I could give is I don't know. But it's worth noting the goal of many alternative funds is not to beat a 50/50 SPY/Cash allocation. It's to deliver positive absolute performance beating 100% cash or T-bills while not being correlated with stocks or bonds. This fund seems to have done that at least with stocks so far. (I haven't seen its correlation with bonds, but given its different construction I would assume it isn't high.) But that doesn't mean it will do this in the future. I just find its lack of correlation, its actively managed style and the fact it delivered positive results during the first quarter of 2020 while also delivering in 2021 interesting. As for having multiple billions of assets under management, such defensive funds usually only get that kind of money when markets are poor and they, hopefully, hold up well. During a strong bull market, most investors won't even notice they exist.

One options indicator I follow is $SKEW (Stockcharts, etc) or ^SKEW (Yahoo, etc). When puts are more expensive than calls (due to high demand from the hedgers), then SKEW is high (140+); otherwise, SKEW is low/moderate (120s-130s). This is a refinement over the put-call ratio that simply uses put and call volumes. It doesn't work well by itself, but provides useful info with $VIX (^VIX). https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80512392701
When options volumes are high, they distort the market for the underlying stocks. For example, when the retail crowd piles into the calls of meme stocks, options dealers have to buy the underlying stock to maintain their hedges. Likewise, if there is huge amount of put buying, options dealers have to short the underlying stock to maintain their hedged positions.

Curious @LewisBraham....do you personally feel there is/can be a mostly succesful "all-weather" fund?
Marketing hyperbole? Can someone make it work in most market environments, can they beat a 50/50 SPY/Cash allocation to make the fee worth it? Wouldn't they have multiple billions in assets under mgmt?
Makes me think, question, if there deploy proprietary algorithm, models etc...most of them work until the don't as the saying goes about most quant funds.
Best,
Baseball Fan

For the 2nd day, someone is doing heavy duty selling (institutional rebalancing?) in the morning until about 11:00 AM Eastern, and then dippers come in around the lunchtime and onwards to reverse much of the morning action. VIX remains elevated at 30, meaning daily SP500 volatility of +/- 1.6%. VERY UNUSUAL.

Hoping most can read this (inflation, media coverage, reality ...)
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20220125&instance_id=51230&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=80681&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/9bd96088-c8e7-5a15-8d66-b849d04a5f39&user_id=83d45440ead1d14c2a89a1e7221337d1

Also fun fact.....YTD: SCHY -0.12% SCHD -3.53%

500 points here … and 500 points there … and pretty soon you’re talking about a real bear market..
- FOMC meetings usually cover 2 days. This month’s begins today, Tuesday. Tomorrow afternoon (Wednesday) they will issue their “statement” which will be followed by a press conference by Jerome Powell. Often, it’s the press conference that moves markets.
- Roughly quoting Randall Forsyth this week: “Watch what the Fed says, not what it does.” Meaning: They probably won’t raise rates at this meeting, but what they say about future QE or rate hikes will be the real news.
- Just browsing today’s WSJ, the economy has slowed significantly this year - largely attributed to covid.
- The wild market swings are not a positive sign. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 1,000 - 2,000 point one-day selloff in the Dow some day this week or next. ((I’m not psychic - just looking at patterns and, like everyone else, trying to draw some inferences.)

This excerpt from a Barrons article today suggests the upcoming FED meeting where the path of interest rate increases may be discussed is the main driver of very recent volatility. Not sure if that is today(?)

Wall Street Is in a Volatile Mood, With Uncertainty Over Fed Direction
Wall Street’s mad Monday really was quite something. After a bloodbath early in the day (Monday), U.S. stocks staged a remarkable comeback as investors flocked to buy the dip.
The S&P 500 was down close to 4% at one point but closed 0.3% up, while the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also pulled a rabbit out of the hat. All that happened off the back of very little news...
...It was a perfect illustration of the heightened anxiety being felt ahead of the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting of 2022, which begins today. The path ahead for interest-rate increases is uncertain and it’s rattling the markets. The Fed can relieve some of that tension with its decision Wednesday, although a more hawkish update could see the selloff resume.

Biden is under political pressure to do something about inflation so the rate increases will be jammed through no matter that the market is trying to scare off the Feds. Inflation affects a lot more people that matter to the Dems vs. a correction to SP500.

+1
Actually my previous post pertained more to bear markets than run-of-the mill corrections. I’m not attuned to the finer points, except bears tend to last longer - usually measured in years. That’s why many keep the cash reserve.
If the early morning numbers hold up or get worse, we’d probably be in correction territory in most
markets. Calling it a bear would be premature.
Qtr 1 of 2020 was somewhat unique. Huge 15-25% selloff across many asset classes in 2 or 3 months. WTH that was, I’m not sure.

“I suppose there are some investors who can change up their strategy from bull markets to bear markets but I haven’t met too many who can do so consistently. I’m a much bigger fan of creating a portfolio that takes corrections and bear markets into account when you create your investment plan. You should strive to create a saving and investing process that is durable enough to handle both up and down markets."
It’s an unanswerable question. Corrections are about as unpredictable as the weather. And they can vary as much in intensity as well.
I doubt if there’s any one good way to prepare. Maybe you shouldn’t even try? Many here, wiser than me, keep several years’ cash reserve on the side so they don’t have to withdraw portfolio money during a correction. Personally, I’m conservatively enough invested and diversified enough that I can continue withdrawing $$ during a multi-year correction without doing a lot of damage. There’s a cost to that in that I can’t take as much risk and reap as bountiful a reward during the the good times.
How often to expect? Geez. I’d like them more often - maybe every year or two - because I think the severity would tend to be less than if we go 3, 4, 5 years without one. And, there’s a school of thought (ie Grantham) that we’re spoiling for much worse than a routine “correction.” I’m not endorsing Grantham - just tossing that out there for thought.

“A consortium of U.S.-based creditors to Mexican multimedia conglomerate TV Azteca S.A.B. de C.V. has threatened to take action to seize its assets in Mexico and abroad after the company skipped a year’s worth of interest payments and is on the cusp of forgoing another in February … Mexico City-based TV Azteca is the second largest producer of Spanish-language television programming in the world …
“TV Azteca has been in arrears on its debts for almost an entire year, after it skipped a $16.5 million interest payment on a $400 million dollar-denominated bond due in 2024 last February and hasn’t sent creditors any money they are owed since. The company also opted not to pay another $16.5 million interest payment that came due in August, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
“The company’s largest U.S.-based creditors, including Fidelity Investments Inc., Contrarian Capital Management LLC and Cyrus Capital Partners LP, met with a representative for TV Azteca at Fidelity’s headquarters in Boston on Wednesday to discuss a plan that would repay the bondholders in full plus accrued interest over time, one of the people said. TV Azteca has yet to decide if it will accept the offer.”
(Excerpted from)
“Pro Bankruptcy Distress”
By Alexander Saeedy
The Wall Street Journal
January 24, 2022

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/889366/000119312522015835/d266872d497.htm
(See link for table of reorganizations)

Sigh. I would not want to quip too subtly for the room, but veteran business writer Peter Coy's report in toto is interesting not only about FAA imputed pokiness (all the moreso given OJ's take) but also about gov stymying of its own agency as Kudlow brags of and takes such pride in.
Especially since DSP can indeed readily solve things:
“This is very, very easily solved technically,” said Theodore Rappaport, a developer of 5G technology who is a professor at New York University’s Tandon School of Engineering. “It’s frustrating as an engineer” to see the old technology still in use, he said. The F.A.A.’s argument is that it couldn’t issue a new standard for radar altimeters without knowing in detail the design of the 5G equipment. Etc.
Kudlow's comical college history was on point for anyone familiar with his years of divisive rightwing free-market blathering in economics and policy as Trump's NEC head, and before --- here crowing about beating the gov agency crucially charged w air safety. Seriously.
A commenter makes the point plainly but without any classmate jokes about a former Porsche-driving SDS leader who (sort of) reversed course in life:
... Ajit Pai [FCC], Larry Kudlow, and the rest of the clown car went to Washington to let industry, in this case the communications industry, do anything they pleased. Maybe that was based on their childlike faith that markets cure all ills and government can only do wrong. But the result was that administrative agencies whose job was nonprofit things like, you know, not crashing airplanes had no voice in the Trump government, and businesses such as telecom has no one watching who cared about consequences. The result was predictable. The wonder is that no one has died as a result. Yet.