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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stock Rover Pointers
    1/10/23. SR informed me of a fix for missing (special) dividends in Portfolio Tools/Future Income.
  • Climate Change and "decarbonization"
    Why would that matter? In any case, the point is that FossilFreeFunds does not "by definition" exclude any firm that is not exclusively in solar, wind, geothermal, etc. This looks like a straw man. Where did this come from? And why just US?
    So long as there are any utilities (or if you prefer, US utilities) that are not exclusively into renewables but are still acceptable to FossilFreeFunds, that'e enough to show that FossilFreeFunds does not have the zero tolerance policy you described.
    A 50% threshold is pretty far away from zero or even de minimis tolerance. Take, for example, Clearway Energy Inc. (CELN.A) According to its most recently posted 10-K (2021), 3/4 of its $12B in operating revenue is derived from renewables. Which means that 1/4 of revenue is still "dirty".
    Praising the worst of the worst for "transitioning"? How far? It's easy to put up good numbers by picking the low hanging fruit - substituting something merely less bad.
    what if the [100 dirtiest US] power plants simply reduced their emissions rate to the national average emissions rate of all power plants in the United States? That average rate currently sits at 454.7 kilograms per megawatt-hour, which would amount to a 46.46% reduction in total emissions.
    What if our “100 Dirtiest” all switched their entire production to natural gas instead of coal and oil products? The national average emissions rate for natural gas power plants is 401.25 kilograms per megawatt-hour, which would be a 52.75% drop in the total emissions released by these plants.
    https://findenergy.com/top-100-dirtiest-power-plants-in-the-united-states/#what-would-it-look-like-if-the-100-dirtiest-plants-made-a-change
    It's going to take more than a single graph showing bad actors behaving less badly to impress. Not that the changes aren't for the better, but what comes next? And when?
  • Sunbridge Capital Emerging Markets Fund (I class) to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000139834423000515/fp0081452-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0081452-1_497.htm
    Sunbridge Capital Emerging Markets Fund
    Institutional Class (Ticker Symbol: RIMIX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the "Trust")
    Supplement dated January 10, 2023 to the currently effective
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information ("SAI").
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the Sunbridge Capital Emerging Markets Fund (the "Fund"). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately the Fund is closed to all new investment.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about February 10, 2023 (the "Liquidation Date"), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder's proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund's shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, Sunbridge Capital Partners LLC, the Fund's advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-877-771-7721 if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • 401(k) Rollover
    State protections for IRAs vary widely. WA is among the states with strong protections; my state IL too. But there are some states with poor protections (CA, ME, NE, WY). Do check your own state.
    https://www.thetaxadviser.com/content/dam/tta/issues/2014/jan/stateirachart.pdf
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    "In the single malt sleeve, picked up a bottle of “Craigellachie” Speyside on a lark while in Costco a month back. Before popping the cork last night I took a closer look at the label - 46% ABV (92 proof). Wow. Was surprised they made single malt in that strength. Haven’t consumed enough to evaluate yet - but first impression was positive - FWIW."
    ***********
    +1.
  • 401(k) Rollover
    Thank you all for the excellent information.
    I reside in Washington state which has strong creditor protections for "employee benefit plans."
    Here's a snippet from the corresponding state law:
    "The right of a person to a pension, annuity, or retirement allowance or disability allowance, or death benefits, or any optional benefit, or any other right accrued or accruing to any citizen of the state of Washington under any employee benefit plan, and any fund created by such a plan or arrangement, shall be exempt from execution, attachment, garnishment, or seizure by or under any legal process whatever."
    This law specifically states that employee benefit plans include: IRAs, Roth IRAs, HSAs, 403(b) accounts, etc.
    Link
  • Rebalancing your portfolio
    The Case Against Frequent Rebalancing of Portfolios
    By Mark Hulbert at the WSJ
    Note: the story is supposedly not behind a paywall.
  • The PCE index, an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed, slowed to 5.5% in November
    from
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/opinion/election-deniers-recession-inflation.html
    Over the year ending in November (the most recent data available), the Consumer Price Index rose 7.1 percent. But inflation ran at an annual rate of only 4.8 percent over the past six months, 3.6 percent over the past three months and 1.2 percent in November.
    True, inflation has been held down in part by events that probably won’t be repeated, like the plunge in gasoline prices over the second half of 2022. On the other hand, there’s good reason to believe that housing inflation — which accounts for about a third of the Consumer Price Index — has declined sharply, but that this decline isn’t yet reflected in official statistics.
    Add in the latest data on wages, which were seriously encouraging, and a reasonable estimate is that we’ve regained full employment with underlying inflation only a point or two above prepandemic levels. That’s not a perfect situation, and squeezing out the remaining inflation may (or may not!) be hard, but it’s hardly a picture of catastrophe.
    For what it’s worth, financial markets have basically declared the inflation threat over: They’re implicitly predicting roughly 2 percent inflation as far as the eye can see. They’re also willing to buy federal debt at interest rates that are up a bit but still low by historical standards, showing no hint of concerns about U.S. solvency.
    Still, Republicans are determined to see economic and fiscal disaster, ...
  • The Last Eight Years Were the Hottest on Record
    Because it will gradually matter more and more to the investment landscape no matter what the climate science deniers think:
    https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/01/10/world/eight-warmest-years-climate-copernicus-intl/index.html
    https://nytimes.com/interactive/2023/climate/earth-hottest-years.html
    It has for instance huge implications for the insurance industry, for the food industry, real estate, the military, textiles, globalization, shipping, tech waste and power consumption, and of course fossil fuels. There will be economic winners and losers here, and of course a number of species will go extinct. Some already have. Given the conversations we’ve been having about asset classes, a forward looking analyst of them will have to take the shifting climate into account, and how it might impact the expected performance of each asset class over the next fifty years instead of just taking how they did in the last fifty as gospel.
  • EVDAX - Camelot Event Driven Fund

    I do see that ETRADE has it LOAD WAIVED. The Institutional version is $1M Min. Any takers?
    Schwab sells EVDIX with a $2500 min and a $49.95 TF.
    https://www.schwab.com/research/mutual-funds/quotes/fees/evdix
    Alternatively, if Schwab accepts a transfer in of EVDAX shares, you can buy a few shares (with a load) elsewhere to bootstrap and then purchase additional shares at Schwab NL/NTF (OneSource®).
    https://www.schwab.com/research/mutual-funds/quotes/summary/evdax
  • 401(k) Rollover
    most of the protections carryover from 401k/403b to such Rollover T-IRAs
    Unless a debtor files for bankruptcy, rollovers receive no protection under the Bankruptcy Abuse Protection and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA). Seems self-evident.
    Outside of bankruptcy, federal protections don't carry over to IRAs, including rollover IRAs:
    protection is much different outside of bankruptcy. For example, what happens if you (or your dependents) get into a car accident or cause some other damage and have a large judgment against you? First off, the ERISA protection for assets in a qualified plan would still apply. That means any money in a company retirement plan would be safe from collection. However, unlike bankruptcy proceedings, that protection is lost once the monies are distributed out of the plan. This includes rollovers to IRAs.
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/creditor-protection-iras
    Rollover monies may still receive better protection than contributory funds in IRAs under state law, but that's not "carrying over" the 401k protection. For example:
    If you roll over funds from an ERISA account [in California] into an IRA, those funds remain 100% exempt [protected]. This is the case even though the IRA is not fully exempt in California.
    https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/are-my-retirement-accounts-protected-from-judgment-creditors-california.html
    There are no similar protections for [rollover] Roth IRAs
    My guess as to where this comes from is the fact that many states afford Roth IRAs less protection than T-IRAs. But this difference in the treatment between traditionals and Roths doesn't care where the money comes from - rollover or contribution.
    As far as the BAPCPA is concerned, a rollover is a rollover, whether traditional or Roth:
    Because of the unlimited exclusion for qualified retirement plan assets transferred into a rollover IRA, CPAs should always ensure that rolled-over retirement wealth is segregated in a rollover IRA that is distinct from other traditional or Roth IRAs that the debtor may own.
    https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2006/jan/protectretirementassets.html
    See also: https://mgoprivatewealth.com/ideas-insights/now-you-know-the-only-difference-between-a-rollover-ira-and-a-contributory-ira-bankruptcy-limits/
    If you want a less wonky source, though I'm not fond of citing it, Investopedia says:
    For the purposes of BAPCPA, a rollover IRA is a traditional or Roth IRA account that was originally funded through a transfer from a qualified retirement plan.
    https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/081915/my-ira-protected-bankruptcy.asp
  • 20 Funds for Investors to Consider in 2023
    Thanks @Obsevant1. Couldn’t help noting that 5 funds from TRP comprise close to a quarter of the list.
    I hope it’s OK to supplement this thread with a reference to @LewisBraham’s excellent article in the current issue of Barrons (”Investors Rediscover Stock Funds”). A nice broad-brush look at how different equity sectors fared last year. Can’t do it justice here. A few clips might entice folks to pull up the whole article / purchase / read Barron’s.
    Excerpts from Barron’s - “Investors Rediscover Stock Funds” - January 9, 2023
    - ”In this difficult environment, active management worked. Mutual funds in Morningstar's Large Blend category, which are mostly actively managed, were up 8.4% for the quarter and down 17% in 2022 …”
    - “A favorite sector for value investors—energy—continued to dominate, with the average energy mutual fund up 21% in the fourth quarter and 45% in 2022.”
    - “Perhaps the biggest surprise this past quarter was the tremendous rebound in foreign stock funds, in particular Morningstar's Europe Stock and Foreign Large Value mutual fund categories, both of which averaged 18% returns. Two value funds—Causeway International Value (CIVVX) and Oakmark International (OAKIX)—had strong runs of 23% each.”
    - “The Europe Stock mutual fund category has only 18 funds. Two of the largest—Vanguard European Stock Index (VEURX) and T. Rowe Price European Stock (PRESX)—were two of the best, up 21% each in the quarter. Still, the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK), also up 21%, is an easier way to get exposure …..

    - Article details / discusses the impact of foreign exchange rates in driving returns on non-U.S. stocks. (If you haven’t noticed, the dollar has weakened in recent months, helping non-dollar domiciled assets.)
    - Lewis also notes, ”One trend that persisted all year was shareholder redemptions from Large-Growth mutual funds. T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) lost the most from outflows in the quarter's first two months, $2.7 billion, and $12 billion for the year through Nov. 30.”
  • All Asset No Authority Allocation
    @hank I agree with the benefits of diversification between these asset classes and their different performance characteristics. Rebalancing can also enforce a certain value discipline as you state. I disagree with the notion that equal weighting these asset classes will produce optimal results or necessarily even good results in the next fifty years simply because it has in the last fifty years.
    These back-tested rules based systems lack nuance and a failure to acknowledge that the future is different from the past. Worse, I think the promoters of these rules-based systems can have ulterior motives. They may want to create investment products off them that a simple algorithm can run for 0.05% while charging 0.50% to ETF investors in a world that has devalued active management.
    In many ways I think the asset allocation decision requires more nuance and is more important than individual security selection. An active manager who is thinking seriously about how long-term economic, geopolitical, environmental and market trends are shifting in 2023 can add value where the one who is only looking backward to 1973 through 2023 may not.
    The problem I admit is most active managers are not adequately equipped to make that kind of macro forward-looking analysis of asset classes. And worse, some are also drawn to short- lived trends that help gather assets instead of produce good results. Crypto as an asset class comes to mind. So I can see how the AANA strategy has a certain appeal and, I think, a dangerous simplicity to it.
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    MikeM said “ (@hank, do you still own that one?)”
    @MikeM - Yes, still own PRPFX. It’s 10.4% of portfolio, equally weighted along with NLSAX, CVSIX and TRRIX* - all relatively “sleep-easy” funds. (TRRIX’s dismal 2022 was, I suspect, an aberration.) Combined, they comprise the “alternatives” sleeve of the portfolio. There’s also one very large consumer staples stock in that grouping which helps offset the higher fees the 4 funds command.
    * While not in itself an alternative fund, TRRIX holds some TRP funds which are ”alternatives” - notably TRDZX and PRAFX. Suspect others as well - short on time.
    Note: The alternatives sleeve is supposed to represent conservative, stable, time-tested non-traditional investments in which I have an high degree of confidence. As such, it is rarely messed around with. I trust them enough as a whole to keep hands-off.
    -
    In the single malt sleeve, picked up a bottle of “Craigellachie” Speyside on a lark while in Costco a month back. Before popping the cork last night I took a closer look at the label - 46% ABV (92 proof). Wow. Was surprised they made single malt in that strength. Haven’t consumed enough to evaluate yet - but first impression was positive - FWIW.
  • 401(k) Rollover
    There are some advantages to putting rollover money in a separate T-IRA (sometimes also called Rollover T-IRA). It can have money from various rollovers. As most of the protections carryover from 401k/403b to such Rollover T-IRAs, this is a clean way of doing things. If rollover money is mixed with contributory/personal money, different rules apply to different portions and the whole T-IRA may be frozen in case trouble arises.
    There are no similar protections for Roth IRAs, so you can put after-tax and Roth 401k/403b money into existing Roth IRA.
    As Secure 2.0 changed rules for RMDs from Roth 401k/403b (so, RMDs are no longer required), this isn't as urgent an issue as it was before (when Roth IRA didn't require RMDs, but Roth 401k/403b did).
  • Latest: 16 Jan, '23: NFCU 15-month CD. Different terms
    @Anna,
    5% for 15 months with beginning deposit of only $50 with additional deposits is not bad.
    Just got a family member into it yesterday. Just want to make sure you stay on top of the maturity date so it doesn't rollover into something with a much lower rate when it matures.
    I have PenFed also, but I check DepositAccounts.com to see the current deals. I tend to use military related credit unions or Texas based credit unions. Rates were a little better than than what the credit unions pay in my area.
  • 401(k) Rollover
    I think using your existing ROTH IRA is the way to go because of the 5-year rule withdrawal. If you open a new account, you have to wait 5-years before penalty free withdrawal; your existing Roth IRA is likely older, and get you sooner to penalty free withdrawal (if you ever need a withdrawal).
    Hope others will comment, but that's my understanding. In my Fidelity Roth 401(k), I like how Fidelity showed "First Roth Contribution Year" and "First year of withdrawal without penalty *" ------ "*" is for 59 1/2 penalty free withdrawal, so if you are over 59 1/2, then it doesn't really matter.
  • Latest: 16 Jan, '23: NFCU 15-month CD. Different terms
    I was just at the local branch today. Not a word about it. Saw no notices, nothing. Jan. 9, '23, which is the opening day of the 13-month, 5% deal.
  • 2023 Investment Plans
    I am making few tweaks here in 2023:
    1. Reduce cash to increase intermediate-term investment grade bond exposure.
    2. Maintain decent exposure to energy and commodity futures and pay attention to China reopening and industrial output (they are #1 in oil consumption)
    3. Increase developed market exposure and watch for US dollar index movement (for on-USD hedged funds)
    4. Add more value, utilities, consumer staples and health care funds/ETFs as defensive positions in case of recession
    5. Sell off treasury bills and CDs as they matures
    6. Be patient with alternatives funds.
    This defensive portfolio may likely to lag if the market move strongly upward. But it will survive if we have another drawdown as in 2022.