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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    Many moves made in late 2021 that helped/distracted this year.
    1. Sold all bond funds to stable value, CDs, T bills and money market (just as we need 529 fund for our kids in college)
    2. Bought commodity futures and energy and sold half of it last month
    3. Sold all EM funds and bought conservative value overseas funds
    4. Rotated from growth to value funds as value lagged for so many years (sheer dumb luck).
    5. Reduced loss with dividend growth funds
    5. Alternatives were flat.
    6. Precious metals were flat in light of high inflation. Bitcoins must attracted the $.
    For the year, we have a negative single digit loss. Hopefully we are in good position to do better in 2023.
  • Riverpark Short Term High Yield - divs and availability
    RPHYX/RPHIX still managed to return below 3% for the year, as compared to a few banks/CUs that pay above 4%
    This is an apples to oranges comparison, comparing past one year return for RPHYX with the current APY on MMAs. A retrospective comparison would be between a bank's one year return and RPHYX's one year return.
    Some of the 4% accounts didn't even exist at the beginning of 2022. For example, Republic Bank of Chicago's Digital Money Market Account (4.25% APY) only started last August. Starting new account types (often requiring new money) is a common tactic among banks.
    Or look at All America Bank's Mega Money Market Account, also with a 4.25% APY. That started the year with a 0.30% APY, not rising above 1% until nearly the end of June. Even by the end of October, it was only up to 2.5% APY.
    Banks do look better prospectively. For bond funds, prospective means looking at SEC yield. RPHIX's last reported SEC yield is 3.27%. At first blush, that looks inferior to several higher yielding banks, including those that don't play fast and loose with new accounts and rates.
    But compare carefully. That 3.27% is the SEC yield as of November 30th. American Bank's Mega MMA's rate was 2.5% APY until the last week of November when it jumped to 4.0% APY. For the moment, a few banks seem competitive, though not necessarily superior.
    despite such a good distribution
    This suggests a common confusion between YTM and current yield. What counts in the end is total return. Each time RPHYX / RPHIX makes a distribution, whether large or small, the NAV drops by about the size of the distribution. The size of the distribution has little bearing on total return.
    Suppose a fund holds a single, deep discount bond. (HY funds typically buy bonds at substantial discounts.) The fund's NAV gradually increases as the bond ages. This "appreciation" is actually interest - that's part of the YTM.
    When a bond finally matures (or is sold), that "appreciation" (interest) is recognized all at once, even though it really accrued over time. If the fund gathers up all this recognized "appreciation" (interest) and distributes it in December, that could explain the unusually large December div.
    It might be more meaningful to take the excess distribution (above what one expected for the Dec div) and mentally allocate it evenly across all the months. This large div may be nothing more than an accounting artifact, much as annual cap gains distributions don't mean that a fund realized all its gains in December.
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    What worked was alternative funds. Had members exchanged their balanced funds either three years ago or just one year ago for REMIX, in the first instance, or PAEGX in the second, they would be crowing about their gains.
    @LewisBraham was spot-on to point to PGAEX in June of '22 as a fund worth watching. That fund has made money for its entire short existence and with a very steady climb. BLNDX/REMIX was profiled by @DavidSnowball back in 2019 as an alternative fund that promised to deliver. It did so, but the ride was rough at certain junctures.
    I did not get out of my balanced funds (JBALX, PRSIX, BRUFX) all at once or soon enough, so I did not see great gains from my REMIX stake. However, I do not have losses for 2022.
  • 2023 to be a tough year: IMF
    First: Thanks for telling me what I think.
    Additionally: I simply was sharing a newsworthy story. It's no surprise to me.
    I see Croatia has in the New Year moved to using the euro. We have a cousin employed over in Croatia. Re: currency values, I wonder whether that will help or hurt her, or be a neutral item in the Big Picture.
    Yes, we here at MFO rarely talk about the miners, or other basic materials. WFG is on my watchlist. My PRNEX (Natural Resources) is up +7.11% for 2022. (Morningstar.) My own mileage DID vary. Kinda finished where I started with that fund in 2022.
    I always pay attention to @yogibearbull.
  • 2023 to be a tough year: IMF
    The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored.
    +1.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    “I might point out the esteemed Mr Giroux’s interests and motivations don’t necessarily align with individual investors.”
    I think that’s a bit too darkly suggestive. But it does raise an interesting question of what the primary motivational factors are for managers who rise to the esteemed position of Barron’s Roundtable Member as well as whether historically their funds have performed better or worse after said ascension. In Giroux’s case, the motivation can hardly be to pull more money into his swollen (closed) fund. If the goal is to bring more assets into TROW it hasn’t gone very well to date, as money has been fleeing and their stock price has fallen sharply over the past year. I’d imagine members are well compensated for their work. Then again … why would someone running a 46 billion dollar fund be in need of additional compensation?
    If the manager(s) of DODBX - one of my larger holdings - ever take a seat at that rountable and begin broadcasting their brightest new ideas to an adoring public … I think I’d sell the fund.
    @Observant1 +1 / You succinctly and clearly stated in 120 words what it took me half a page to convey. Nicely done.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    I can't assume the risk of being invested entirely in stocks.
    I therefore utilize bonds (and "cash") to hedge equity losses.
    Both equities and fixed income experienced losses in 2022 - this is a rare occurrence.
    In late 2021, I sold my core bond holding (DODIX) which was ~16% of my portfolio.
    Overall bond yields have risen significantly since 2021.
    Although the Federal Funds rate will probably be increased a few more times,
    the bulk of rate increases in this cycle may have already transpired.
    I purchased DOXIX (replaced DODIX in 401k) on 12/30/22.
    This is my core fixed income holding currently comprising ~19% of my portfolio.
    The remainder of the portfolio's bond/cash position is in T-Bills and money markets now.
    I'll likely purchase additional bonds/bond funds (possibly TIPS/Treasuries/munis) later in the year.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    At the of the article it also highlighted the default risk of BL has increased.
    Yet there’s a dark cloud to that silver lining. Some 90% of the record $615 billion in loans issued in 2021 were what is known as “covenant-lite” loans with weaker default protections.
    Yes, PRWCX has outperformed Vanguard balanced index (60/40), 11.9% vs 16.9%, even though the balanced index is not exactly the right benchmark. The bank loan allocation has a small loss (TRP floating rate fund, -0.69%) while the total bond index used in VG banned fund lost -13.3%. Even though the growth stocks in PRWCX have not done well, the overall portfolio still outperformed by 4%.
    At the time of the Roundtable discussion, the treasury yield curve has not been inverted until August this year. As of December 28, 2022, 10 year treasury yield is at 3.88% and the spreads between 2 mo, 3 mo and 10 mo to 10 year treasury are all negative. https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202212
    Recent WealthTrack interview Giruox thought we may have a chance of not getting into a recession in 2023. I hope he is right and that is why I invest with him for a long time.
    I will get back to bond finds again but it will be gradual over the entire year. Until the Fed lower the rate , I will stay with Tbill ladders even at 4-5% yield.
  • What helped and what hurt in 2022
    Best portfolio performance enhancer: exchanging DODIX for stable value fund in late 2021.
    Worst portfolio performance detractor: holding VWILX in 2022 (-30.79% return).
    My portfolio consisted of ~70% stocks and ~30% bonds/cash at the start of 2022.
    Here are the 2022 Personal Rates of Return according to Vanguard and Fidelity.
    Accounts are listed in descending order based on their total value.
    401k
    -8.02%
    Taxable account #1
    -8.50%
    Roth IRA
    -17.10%
    Taxable account #2
    -13.11%
    HSA
    Rate of Return info not available
    My overall portfolio value (includes 401(k), Roth IRA, HSA contributions) declined 8.18% in 2022.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @hank, I saw LB's article. All I read is saying it may be or may be pretty close to thinking it may be time to consider bond funds again.
    @MikeM - Yes, LB’s article seems to make the case for bonds - particularly floating rate types of lower credit quality. David Giroux is one proponent noted in the article. What I find interesting is that Giroux isn’t very far off from what he said a year ago. I posted a thread in January of last year on the Barron’s Roundtable and in it I quoted Giroux’s words:
    Giroux: “The asset class today with the most attractive risk/reward profile is leveraged loans. I’ve taken leveraged loans to 12% of my portfolio …”
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/59086/a-glimpse-into-barron-s-roundtable-part-1-january-17-print-edition
    Somewhat paradoxically, his fund lost 12% during 2022. And, as if to further cement his bond credentials, in the same interview Giroux avowed ….
    “I would make a bet that the 10-year doesn’t get above 2.5% in the next year.”
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    LB's article in Barron's looks at pros and cons of FR/BL.
    Keep in mind that FR/BL are a subclass of HY and their rate resetting mechanism works fine when rates are rising or stable. If rates start declining, or economy finds itself in recession, then they will be hit hard like other HY. Davis Giroux runs a capital appreciation fund PRWCX with some exposure to credit spreads and he won't be doing B&H for FR/BL.
    Fido FFRHX, 1-yr (default). Switch to 3+ years to see volatility. https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FFRHX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80706396341
  • I bonds
    My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
    Same here. Plus, the new rate in May seems pretty likely to be even more underwhelming.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    @MikeM I'll be watching pricing in the below list to discover when and where the money is traveling. The FED can control the short duration end for yields, but the markets may control the other durations.
    Last weeks pricing performance.
    --- AGG = -1% / -13.02% (I-Shares Core bond etf) widely used bond benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = -.01% / -1% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.18% / -3.88% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.58% / -9.5% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1% / -15.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.46% / -12.2% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- STPZ = -.22% / -4.47% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.1% / -31.7% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -2.55% / -31.2% (I shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -3.3% / -39.2% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -3.67 / -41.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +5.4% / +93.3% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -7.9/ -72.6% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 3x version of EDV etf)
    --- BAGIX = -.58% / -13.35% (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    *** Other, for reference:
    --- HYG = -1% / -11% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = -1.52% / -17.9% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    --- FZDXX = 4.26% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MMKT fund
  • I bonds
    Anybody buying this year? Seems like a no brainer
    Are you all in? One can overpay one's taxes by $5K by making an estimated payment on or before January 17th. That enables you to buy an extra $5K in savings bonds with the refund, though they will come in paper form.
    A downside is that you'll lose a couple of months of interest before the savings bonds are issued. Say 2/12 x 4% or about 2/3 of a percent in forgone interest. Still seems worthwhile.
    Unfortunately, with what has become typical government efficiency, last year the USPS lost one of the dozen paper bonds sent and the Treasury Dept has yet to complete processing my claim for the missing $50 savings bond.
  • Is 2023 the time to wade back into bond funds? Thoughts?
    I can tell you that I'm 31% in bonds, all in funds--- including some that sit in PRWCX. The other two are junk: TUHYX and PRCPX. I am, likewise, looking for better dividends than the safer CDs and Treasuries offer. And at this point, the damage has been done, I think. TUHYX, by the way, has a brand-new twin: an ETF version. It's THYF. How they came up with that share-price, I dunno. It's over $50 at the moment. Dividends are higher than in the standard OEF, too. FR/BL funds turn me off after my experience with the TRP particular flavor. Supposed to stay level, eh? But the thing fell, even if not by much. Seems to me even junk bonds have just about reached their nadir in terms of share price. I'm not in it, but AGEPX is a Frontier EM fund I like to track. The yield on that puppy is astronomical.
  • I bonds
    My plan WAS to buy I-Bonds in 2023, but stingy rate on 11/1/22 changed that. IMO, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity are better (1.66% real rate plus CPI) OR I may just feed the bear a bit (-:).
  • I bonds
    I plan to purchase I-Bonds at the end of January¹.
    The current interest rate for I-bonds issued from November 1, 2022 to April 30, 2023 is 6.89%.
    This interest rate is comprised of the semiannual inflation rate (3.24%) and the fixed rate (0.40%).
    ¹ I-Bonds purchased late in the month will earn interest for the entire month.
  • BONDS, HIATUS ..... March 24, 2023
    2022 - When Stock-Bond Allocations Failed to Protect
    The yearend data are in. It was a terrible year for both stocks (the worst since 2008 GFC) and bonds (the worst ever), and so for the 60-40 hybrids (the worst since 1937; #3 worst since the 1928 Great Crash).
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/883/thread
  • “Year-End Review” with Louis Rukeyser - WSW / Air Date: December 29, 2000
    In 2000 the markets fared somewhat worse than in 2022. Lou’s opening monologue attempts to put things into perspective. Perhaps striking from among the causes noted for the sharp equity selloff were - Aggressive Fed tightening and “The election that would not die.”
    Opens with blank screen / test pattern. Slide ahead to 2:00 minutes to skip commercials and begin monologue.
    https://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-394-75dbs7t6?start=0&end=1147.71