Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
More importantly … Do you care what the IMF thinks? How much are you willing to (or planning to) alter your long term investment plan to accommodate their thinking?
We all engage to a degree in confirmation bias - the tendancey to seek out those whose opinions support whatever opinion we may already have.
The other issue is that the global economy and global securities markets are two separate things. People can be suffering economically and Wall Street might like it, especially now as labor costs have been rising because of low unemployment. Wall Street might prefer if people start losing their jobs--bad for the economy/humanity, but good for investors seeking to keep labor from having the upper hand. Look at this quote from the story:
The "U.S. is most resilient," she said, and it "may avoid recession. We see the labor market remaining quite strong."
But that fact on its own presents a risk because it may hamper the progress the Fed needs to make in bringing U.S. inflation back to its targeted level from the highest levels in four decades touched last year. Inflation showed signs of having passed its peak as 2022 ended, but by the Fed's preferred measure, it remains nearly three times its 2% target.
"This is ... a mixed blessing because if the labor market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down," Georgieva said.
”The other issue is that the global economy and global securities markets are two separate things.”
Yes (emphatically).
I also find that we here, and the media as well, tend to focus on the United States. There are other important economies out there both developed and undeveloped that don’t necessarily march in lock-step with the U.S. Yet, there are ways to invest in those. Then there’s the whole issue of FX / foreign exchange (ie different currencies and relative values) that hardly ever enters these discussions. And there’s commodity-linked investments. People are now waking up to this area (primarily energy and food production). But there are other areas like industrial & precious metals that rarely get mentioned.
The investment universe is far larger than typically portrayed here or in the press.
The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored.
The IMF and World Bank provide help to many developing countries through grants and loans. Some of their annual funding comes from developed countries. Both institutions are in unique positions to have global economic views that shouldn't be ignored.
First: Thanks for telling me what I think. Additionally: I simply was sharing a newsworthy story. It's no surprise to me.
I see Croatia has in the New Year moved to using the euro. We have a cousin employed over in Croatia. Re: currency values, I wonder whether that will help or hurt her, or be a neutral item in the Big Picture.
Yes, we here at MFO rarely talk about the miners, or other basic materials. WFG is on my watchlist. My PRNEX (Natural Resources) is up +7.11% for 2022. (Morningstar.) My own mileage DID vary. Kinda finished where I started with that fund in 2022.
Lots of studies / articles written over the past couple decades re the accuracy and usefulness of IMF predictions (detractors and supporters) if anyone wants to do the digging.
I’ll defer to the wisdom of Yogi Berra: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
First: Thanks for telling me what I think. Additionally: I simply was sharing a newsworthy story.
@Crash - An apology to you if my remark appeared personal. Wasn’t meant that way. I appreciated your OP. The story belongs here on the board. What I was trying to get at was: whether you or other board members actually alter your investment profile based on predictions for the next year? And what changes, if any, are being contemplated based on the IMF prediction?
I like to read the predictions. But try to keep an open mind and not succumb to my own confirmation bias. Adhering to a pre-planned model allocation is one way to avoid being swayed. Yet allows for a few minor adjustments over the course of a year.
Maybe those on the board who plan to do something substantially different based on this latest prediction would carry on here ….
+1. @hank It pays to be informed. Yet huge, big macro predictions like that one from the IMF must indeed be taken with a 50-pound bag of salt. There are so many variables. So many surprises can happen. What if the war against Ukraine by the Poot-bag comes to an end? What if we could suddenly begin to actually trust the cooked information coming out of China re: covid (and everything else?) What if Africa became educated, stable and on a path to sustained development, without the corruption and political instability which makes so many of them "shit-hole" countries? Same goes for Philippines and elsewhere. What if humanity as a whole (with a "w") suddenly woke up and saw the benefits of long-term thinking instead of short-term profits as the primary driver for decisions? What if we could finally manage to see each other in each other's face?
From The Vatican, lately. @LewisBraham wrote about it: "No investment of money is morally neutral; “either God’s kingdom is being advanced by the assets we deploy, or it is being neglected and undermined,” said a new Vatican document."
Don't like the term, "God's Kingdom?" Think of it as The Common Good or Human Progress or Human Ethical Evolution.
Comments
We all engage to a degree in confirmation bias - the tendancey to seek out those whose opinions support whatever opinion we may already have.
AKA: "The need to feel better from knowing that other people have made the same stupid mistakes that you did"
Yes (emphatically).
I also find that we here, and the media as well, tend to focus on the United States. There are other important economies out there both developed and undeveloped that don’t necessarily march in lock-step with the U.S. Yet, there are ways to invest in those. Then there’s the whole issue of FX / foreign exchange (ie different currencies and relative values) that hardly ever enters these discussions. And there’s commodity-linked investments. People are now waking up to this area (primarily energy and food production). But there are other areas like industrial & precious metals that rarely get mentioned.
The investment universe is far larger than typically portrayed here or in the press.
Additionally: I simply was sharing a newsworthy story. It's no surprise to me.
I see Croatia has in the New Year moved to using the euro. We have a cousin employed over in Croatia. Re: currency values, I wonder whether that will help or hurt her, or be a neutral item in the Big Picture.
Yes, we here at MFO rarely talk about the miners, or other basic materials. WFG is on my watchlist. My PRNEX (Natural Resources) is up +7.11% for 2022. (Morningstar.) My own mileage DID vary. Kinda finished where I started with that fund in 2022.
I always pay attention to @yogibearbull.
I’ll defer to the wisdom of Yogi Berra: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
I like to read the predictions. But try to keep an open mind and not succumb to my own confirmation bias. Adhering to a pre-planned model allocation is one way to avoid being swayed. Yet allows for a few minor adjustments over the course of a year.
Maybe those on the board who plan to do something substantially different based on this latest prediction would carry on here ….
Thanks.
It pays to be informed. Yet huge, big macro predictions like that one from the IMF must indeed be taken with a 50-pound bag of salt. There are so many variables. So many surprises can happen. What if the war against Ukraine by the Poot-bag comes to an end? What if we could suddenly begin to actually trust the cooked information coming out of China re: covid (and everything else?) What if Africa became educated, stable and on a path to sustained development, without the corruption and political instability which makes so many of them "shit-hole" countries? Same goes for Philippines and elsewhere. What if humanity as a whole (with a "w") suddenly woke up and saw the benefits of long-term thinking instead of short-term profits as the primary driver for decisions? What if we could finally manage to see each other in each other's face?
From The Vatican, lately. @LewisBraham wrote about it:
"No investment of money is morally neutral; “either God’s kingdom is being advanced by the assets we deploy, or it is being neglected and undermined,” said a new Vatican document."
Don't like the term, "God's Kingdom?" Think of it as The Common Good or Human Progress or Human Ethical Evolution.