I believe the unnamed article referenced is one from Prof. Snowball:
Investing in 2022: The Indolent Portfolio (Jan 2022), citing
The case for a stock-light portfolio, version 4.0 (April 2021), or
Mutual Fund Commentary Nov 1, 2014
They all reference the same T. Rowe Price analysis of data from 1949 to 2013. For more current data and something a bit more interactive, Portfolio Visualizer has an efficient frontier tool.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/efficient-frontier
Worth noting is that the TRP analysis probably uses either Treasuries or total US (IG) bond market for the fixed income portion. Those have virtually zero correlation with the US stock market.
This matters because as one uses "junkier" bonds (moving from IG funds to core-plus funds, multi-sector, and ultimately to HY funds) the correlation with stocks increases substantially. This in turn reduces the diversification effect of the bonds and thus does less to temper the equity volatility. Interestingly, according to PV, using HY rather than IG bonds results in a lower return efficient frontier. That is, for a given target volatility, HY + equities returns less than IG + equities.
This PV output shows the efficient frontiers and optimal allocations (i.e. highest Sharpe ratios) using data from 1987 through 2021.
The higher efficient frontier (EF) curve, i.e. the one with the higher return for a given level of volatility, is the IG + equity portfolio. Mixing HY and equity doesn't do as well. An 80/20 IG/equity mix, according to the curve, has a standard deviation of around 4.4%, or around 30% of the 15.3% volatility of a pure equity portfolio. It also has an average return of 7%, which is about 60% of the 12.3% return from the equity portfolio. Figures that are consistent with the TRP results.
You can play around with this, e.g. using a portfolio of HY, Intermediate Treasuries, and equities. The result of that experiment suggests that once one goes above 40% in equities, one is better off leaving out the junk bonds.

fyi.. ...
since inception VASIX vs SPY runs 56% of CAGR and 29% of SD. 10/1994. Lo as 16% Equity.
since inception FASIX vs SPY runs 55% of CAGR and 31% of SD. 2/1993. Hi as 25% Equity.
since inception VBMFX/SPY vs SPY runs 60% of CAGR and 28% of SD. 2/1993.
The 60/20 may also be a good trade off depending on market valuations, business cycle and future perceptions of return (or loss). 100% equity portfolio in retirement normally not used.

A 15-85 or 20-80 stock-bond portfolio is also called parity portfolio that means that the SDs of stock and bond portions are nearly equal.
There are several funds/OEFs that offer this mix - FASIX, VASIX.
Hedge-fund managers may put high leverage on such parity portfolios.
Some may use these as next level of risk up from core bond funds; another way is core-plus. Idea is to add some stocks or HY to core/inv-grade bonds.
There are some multisector and HY bond funds with up to 20% equity, RPSIX (MS), FAGIX (HY).
So, there is something to this 15-20% equity solution.

I enjoy reading the MFO articles. Anybody have thoughts regarding the article mentioning .....a 20% equity portfolio translates into receiving 60% of the returns of an all equity portfolio with about 25% of the volatility? Just a Thinking Fast and Slow type observation....volatility (SD) is a annualized metric that would remain in this case relatively consistent over time around 25% but the 60% yearly returns vs SPY compounded over a 30 year retirement horizon would not be 60% after 30 years. A significant difference in return. IOW's the value one receives from low SD does not compound over time. Although there is value inherent.

I too am perplexed by positioning in my fixed income sector. I planned for higher interest rates in 2021, and shortened duration. But the shortest stuff JCPB,VUSB, loss money ( although not much, but I would have been better off in cash) and core bond funds relatively crashed TGFNX (-1.5%) SUBFX (-1.2%).
While last year floating rates, junk ( even munis) and preferreds ( and I owned some) were the place to be, I just don't believe they will do well in 2022 unless interest rates collapse, along with the economy
As almost all stock valuations are so high, I am very reluctant to go all in on dividend stocks for my income.
Selected value funds may do less bad, and I am particularly partial to those that do not insist on being fully invested, like PVCMX.
Multi sector income funds like FMSDX may do well be are also at risk.

Will read the article but it is a rather odd title. I was alive in 1970-1981 when the federal funds rate hit what? 12 14%? My first mortgage in 1984 was at 11.5%
Somehow all the humans I knew then seemed pretty ingenuous.

LIHKX is US-LC R1000 + foreign-LC, etc
FISPX is US-LC SP500
QASGX is US-SC-gr R2000-gr
So, he may also consider 80% LIHKX, 20% QASGX in the expectation that US-SC are better valued now and may catchup (past is past).

Not a lot of port moves specifically for 2022. We are nearing end of 10th year of retirement. We use 5-yr retirement portfolio strategies and are nearing the end of our 2nd 5-yr plan (June 2022). All major moves towards next 5-yr plan have been gradual/cumulative over past six months or so and will be completed by June.
Core for next five years will consist of 11 AA OEFs (and possibly 1-2 more) that can be detailed here or via PM if anyone is interested. Still reluctantly holding a smaller slug of dedicated bond OEFs (HY Munis, BL, Multi, ST HY), significantly reduced in number and aggregate $ amount from initial 5-yr plan plan. Also initiated much larger explore section during 2nd, 5-yr plan that will carryforward in next one, comprised of a coupla indivdual stocks and a coupla dedicated stock ETFs and OEFs. Former 10-yr CD ladder initiated at start of retirement continues to see final rungs fall off w/o being replaced. Maturing CD proceeds continue to be rolled to much higher risk cats, primarily explore stuff. Keeping an eye on 5-yr CD rates this year as they inch back to levels that may be acceptable replacements for some dedicated bond OEF holdings.
Will continue to make (what are effectively) tax-free IRA w/d's for personal spending wants/needs up to taxable income threshold in lieu of making Roth conversions. Continue to be ~96% under the umbrella (read, in tax-deferred a/c's) and ~4% in taxable. Haven't paid a dime in FIT/SIT since final year of employment in 2012 (state has actually been paying us $50 annually last coupla years via tax credits) and starting to look like that will all continue for at least five more years or until RMDs are um, required. Life-long tax planning strategy has been to Avoid, Defer, Minimize, and pay them on our terms when we want (read, ultimately have) to pay them.
REALLY appreciated the contributions of many of MFO regulars. Keep up the great work and contributions here and Happy New Year to all!

Just executed: took 15% of my bonds and switched them from RPSIX (covers the bond waterfront) to PRFRX (bank loans.)

Advising son age 30 on best long term choices for employer 401K. Choices limited to Blackrock and Federated Hermes. I suggest 50-50 split between Blackrock Lifepath index 2045 (LIHKX) and Federated Hermes Max Cap Index (FISPX) or Federated Hermes MDT Small Cap Growth (QASGX). Seems FISPX has lower expense ratio and better 1/3/5 yr performance so leaning to FISPX for half and LIHKX for half. Thanks.

I’m not hallucinating. Just misread Wood’s words. A total 40% appreciation is possible over 5 years.. 40% annually is totally wacko!

I'm imagining what the Upside/Downside capture ratio relative to the S&P 500 would have to be over the next five years to deliver a 40% annualized return after the longest bull market in history. You have to believe U.S. stocks are due for another five very strong years or that ARKK is run by the greatest investment genius in history to believe 40% annually is possible for the next five like the last five. And even if it is possible, will investors be able to stomach the volatility along the way or will they time their buys and sales poorly just like they did before?

Our KISS of a portfolio ended the year with 80% in PRWCX/TRAIX and 20% in AKREX. So, not a bad year with low to mid 70's exposure to equities by year end.
Our average age is 56 and probably have been on the light side of equities for our age the past 15 years since PRWCX has dominated our investments, but we are okay with that. We'll keep saving, but probably have enough saved for retirement already, just need to keep growing it at a modest rate for the next handful of years. Grateful to be debt free.
Have decided equity exposure is a bit higher than preferred at this point and am in the process of reducing AKREX and moving some of the proceeds into TRAIX and PRFRX for now which is also holding some inheritance monies my wife received recently from her folk's estate. Planning for our equity exposure to be between 65-70% when done rebalancing.

Highly respected economist David Rosenberg was mentioned in this week’s Barron’s (“Up & Down Wall Street” column). This interview from a month or two ago is very in depth. Honestly, I haven’t fully digested it all yet.
A few excerpts:
“There are bubbles everywhere: residential real estate, equities, corporate credit, cryptos. But there is nothing in my interest rate forecast that is bearish for risk assets. Because in the final analysis, the central banks have to offer a policy based on the real economy. Without doubt, the valuations are crazy, and there will be a day of reckoning. It’s just not clear that it will be in the next twelve months.”
“We can argue if (bonds) are a good investment. But if you agree with my view, they will be a good trade. If you have anything remotely close to a contrary antenna, you have to be owning Treasuries right now, I mean the very long end of the curve. That will generate the biggest return.”
“If you’re looking for a hard asset that is unloved and underowned, gold and gold mining stocks will be a very good place to be. Very recently, gold has been firming despite a strong U.S. dollar. If I’m right with my forecast and the dollar depreciates next year and real interest rates stay negative, this will be a very important tailwind for gold.”
Interview

@Baseball_Fan:
Re FMSDX - Lipper breaks down its holdings this way:
50% Stocks
25% Other
24% Bonds
2% Cash
Would you happen to know what the 25% “other” is invested in? Thanks.

Per Fidelity:
FMSDX
As of 11-30-2021:
Portfolio Weight
Equities ex. Preferred Stock 46.54%
U.S. Treasury & Government Related Securities 17.75%
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds 0.24%
Mortgage Backed Securities 0.01%
High-Yield Investments 14.70%
Bank Loans 6.23%
Convertibles 6.78%
Preferred Stock 4.52%
Emerging-Markets Debt 3.26%
Cash & Net Other Assets -0.03%

@Baseball_Fan:
Re FMSDX - Lipper breaks down its holdings this way:
50% Stocks
25% Other
24% Bonds
2% Cash
Would you happen to know what the 25% “other” is invested in? Thanks.

+1
From what I could tell, this week’s is a rerun of last week’s show. I always watch it. Quality of these shows ranges from “just fair“ to “very good” on a week-to-week basis. I’d probably score the linked show about a “4” on a scale of 1-5. Some very good observation re valuations, interest rates, inflation in the latter half. Thanks @Catch23
Larry Summers might be hard to swallow for some. I’ve grown to appreciate his frequently featured commentaries over time. :)

@BaluBalu,
TANDX, ~10%
ARTTX, ~5%
FMSDX, ~5%
PVCMX, ~5%
I'm uber conservative...recognizing I have taken on "risk" by being way conservative past several years...still working, I didn't like being idle as I was "semi-retired" for ~ 18months...so live below my means.
Do recognize I've been ok with this during the past several years but past year have taken it on the chin with "silent losses"...due to severe inflation which appears to be getting worse as we head into new year (grocery store, heating bill, conversations with supply chain/vendor mgr's...many taking double digit increases at the beginning on 2022)
Best,
Baseball Fan

FWIW, the investment manager, IndexIQ appears to have thrown in the towel with respect to index construction.
This fund currently tracks the IQ Real Return Index, developed by IndexIQ LLC. This index targeted a positive real return. The index is "based on the premise that capital market returns tend to be forward looking and anticipate economic developments including inflation expectations."
Summary Prospectus
However, as of Feb 28, the fund will track a different index, constructed by Bloomberg.

the Fund will begin seeking investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield (before the Fund’s fees and expenses) of the Bloomberg IQ Multi-Asset Inflation Index (the “New Index”). ... Bloomberg Index Services Limited serves as the index provider for the New Index.
The New Index seeks to provide investors with a hedge against the inflation rate by providing diversified exposure to assets that have historically exhibited positive sensitivity to the Consumer Price Index, or CPI.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1415995/000110465921150893/tm2135117-10_497.htm
That sounds like a different, less ambitious objective (inflation hedge vs. positive real return) and a different approach (less psychic, more traditional). It also suggests the risk of high turnover early this year.

It is complicated. I am not sure why there is so much focus on the "4%" rule when the IRS forces people over 75 to remove 4.07% of your retirement accounts. By 80 it is up to almost 5%.

This conflates 4% of starting amount (inflation adjusted) with 4% (or 5%) of remaining balance.
The 4% rule is supposed to enable one to spend down savings so that they are not depleted for at least 30 years. But the savings are, or may be, depleted at some point past that.
As one draws down one's savings, the 4% of the original value gradually evolves into 5%, 6% and more of the remaining balance. The RMD calculation is designed to automate this while adjusting for a gradually growing life expectancy.
That is, as one grows older without dying, one's expected lifetime expands. So year by year, one needs to plan on living longer and draw down a bit slower (as a fraction of remaining assets).