31 October 2020
Portfolio summary
20,000 shares of FUAMX. $237,800.
2,000. IGOV. $105,940.
10,000. SGOL. $180,500.
7,000 SGGDX $183,960.
1,500. FSUTX. $131,985.
10,000. FLOWX. $120,700.
Cash. FDLXX $ 91,576.75
Total. $1,052,461.75
John

I own MSFBX no load/ntf at Fidelity and Schwab. E/R is 1.19% . 35% is invested in the Consumer Defensive category, and lost under 30% in 2008.

I think replacing VLSIX with RLSFX may help with the "minimum drawdown" aspect, at least based on their short-term history.

I replaced VLSIX with RLSFX and the results were worse for performance and SD. See (link)

First, I don't list all my funds and I don't follow all the funds.
Second, I list the ones that have done better for 1-3 months but still make some choices.
PIMIX is on the list under Multi.
WATFX is a good fund but I prefer GIBLX which is better for 1-5 years.
Your question is more complicated. What kind of investor are you? do you need a ballast fund? is it for 3 months or 3 years? are you retired? how much risk/volatility you want to take? how the other portion of your portfolio look like
Sure, PIMIX did better than WATFX last month because rates were up and Multi did better.
You need to tell me a lot more before I can post my ideas.
PIMIX is a pretty good fund but used to be a great fund until 01/2018. I prefer TSIIX for longer hold. If you need more ballast, I like PTIAX.

Since 01/2019, the above funds made 8.5% + SD=2. See (link)
VLSIX is the one that limits it.
But I can do even better with BIL=40% + IQDAX=30% + VLSIX=30% and make 12.6% + SD=3.55(still low)

Happy Halloween experts!
Just for entertainment purposes only and to maybe provide for good debate and ideas to the class going forward...provide your best 5 fund portfolio, minimum of 8% return, minimum drawdown to be held for the next 12-36 months...
I'll start, FWIW and again, for entertainment purposes only.
VLSIX KAR Long/Short, 15%
TMSRX, T Rowe Price Mult Strat Total Return, 5%
IQDAX, Q Infinity, 30%
ARBIX, Absolute Convertible Arbitrage, 10%
BIL, ETF, 1-3 Month TBills, 40%
Ideas/Thoughts....what say you experts, c'mon FD1K, whatda got?
Best,
Baseball_Fan

Hi Catch -
When I need a quick “reality check” I sometimes pull up the DJI or similar chart. Of course, experienced market watchers know that the Dow is hardly representative of the broader market. In yesterday’s case, the quick glance was enough to convince me that equities aren’t the “screaming buy” they were in back March. So, I didn’t succumb to the temptation to throw money at the beast.
A surprise yesterday was that DODBX gained 0.35% in what was overall a falling market. Worth noting : HY and shorter maturities held up pretty well, while long-term rates rose enough to help the banks and other financials.
Yes, I hear there’s snow forecast for Sunday in northern Michigan, followed by a warming trend.

Observations for one month as of 10/30/2020:
October was not a good month for stocks and most bonds (Interest rates were up). High rated bonds were down for 1 and 3 months. The best bond categories have been Multi+Non Trad.
Multi: 0.1% for the month but securitized shined again(IOFIX,DHEAX). HOBIX with 1%.
Uncontrain/Nontrad: +0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX) did better at 0.8%
HY Munis: (-0.3) for the month but BSNIX(new fund from Baird) has done better all year.
High Rated Bonds: (-0.3%) for the month. The index BND -0.56%
Bank loans: Flat but EIFAX +0.3%.
HY+EM: HY 0.25 and EM= +0.1 for the month and this time no correlation to stocks.
Corp: -0.2% for the month. PIGIX -0.5%.
SP500(SPY) Down month at -2.5, YTD=2.9%.
PCI CEF (-5.1%) for the month. YTD still at -18.1%
My own portfolio
I started the month with IOFIX+JASVX (both securitized) + NHMAX(HY Muni). Early in the month sold NHMAX and bought HOBIX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HOBIX continues to have good performance for 1-3 months. It was another good month for me, even last week I made 0.1%.
In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. Since I retired in 2018 I don’t see any reason to be invested when markets crash. I can be out until markets look better. Sure, sometimes it’s just a false alarm but I rather be out. It works well with my trading style and not recommended for anybody else.

Diversification didn’t help you much in October. SPY down -2.5%, FSPSX(International index) -4%, BND -0.56%

PSSAX has beaten SH by a significant margin. For a while I thought it was just the bond portfolio aspect of it, but I don't think it's just that anymore, maybe something also to do with how they trade futures.

It might be trading or it might just be the level of equity exposure.
For simplicity, assume bond returns are fairly stable. They certainly should be relative to equities. This assumption lets us view 100% of the volatility as equity-based. PSSAX is about 8% less volatile than SH. 3/5/10 year standard deviations are 14.93/12.52/11.22 vs 16.35/13.68/12.42. Capture ratios are consistent with this observation.
Just eyeballing the graphs, it looks like they might be much closer if one adjusted SH's beta (e.g. by multiplying SH's changes by 92% or so) and adding a relatively constant bond performance kicker (say, 1% - 2%).
Assuming my quick and dirty black box guesstimates are close to the mark, the question then becomes: how/why does PSSAX have less equity exposure than SH?
I had thought that PSSAX was just like others of its ilk, like DSENX, PSTKX, etc. Those funds target 100% equity exposure via derivatives, and then add bond exposure. For example, the PIMCO prospectus section describing PSTKX reads:

The Fund typically will seek to gain long exposure to its benchmark index in an amount, under normal circumstances, approximately equal to the Fund’s net assets. However, S&P 500 Index derivatives may be purchased with a fraction of the assets that would be needed to purchase the equity securities directly, so that the remainder of the assets may be invested in Fixed Income instruments.

Unlike these funds, and unlike SH, PSSAX does not aim for 100% (actually negative 100%) equity exposure. Its prospectus reads:

While the Fund will, under normal circumstances, invest primarily in Index short positions backed by a portfolio of Fixed Income Instruments, PIMCO may reduce the Fund’s exposure to Index short positions when PIMCO deems it appropriate to do so. Additionally, the Fund may purchase call options on Index futures contracts or on other similar Index derivatives in an effort to limit the total potential decline in the Fund’s net asset value during a market in which prices of securities are rising or expected to rise.

So, according to the prospectus PIMCO is actively managing the equity side as well as the bond side of the fund. I'm still guessing that this is largely macro market timing and not individual issue selection, but one would need to dig through the (semi)annual statements to verify that.

@Gary1952 Did you enjoy the multi-trillion dollar government stock market bailout via socialism this year that saved your portfolio?

you can drag the right edge of the slider to specific start and end dates. ... I am correct ... sliding the right edge towards the left of the screen produces exact date ranges
Sliding (dragging) the right edge toward the left changes the end date to an earlier date. StockCharts writes: "Left-click on the right edge of the slider's thumb and drag it left or right to change the chart's ending date".
Since the left edge (starting date) does not move, sliding the right edge leftward does have the effect of compressing the date range, hopefully to the exact range desired. However, sliding the right edge does not move the left edge - it does not change the start date.
Chances are high that any fund started in 1999 doesn't have the same manager
I suppose that's true, but why suggest that TGLMX started in 1999? StockCharts isn't just missing data for TGLMX for early 1999, but for all of 1998, 1997, 1996, ...
reboot once the manager changes
At best, this explains why you don't care about the early missing data. It may matter to others. Lots of people here seem to care about fund history, e.g. MAXDD, regardless of manager.
More generally, are you saying that you don't care about a manager's history once he leaves a fund? Because if you did care, then you would want older data, some of which StockCharts doesn't have.
This is not hypothetical. Lots of people jumped on DoubleLine as soon as Gundlach started it. They based their decision on his record with the fund he left, TGLMX. Unfortunately, they couldn't get his complete record through StockCharts.
I get it, you don't care about older data, so while truncation of data might bother others, you're fine with it. You're also fine with a 5% error in its data on TGLMX performance, because you're not interested in that particular performance figure. But doesn't it concern you that the StockChart data has errors of this magnitude?
You're the StockCharts maven. Where do these errors come from, why should I have faith in what it shows me?

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1027596/000089418920008824/kellner497e10302020.htm
497 1 kellner497e10302020.htm 497
Filed Pursuant to Rule 497(e)
1933 Act File No. 333-17391
1940 Act File No. 811-07959
Kellner Merger Fund
Investor Class GAKAX
Institutional Class GAKIX
A series of Advisors Series Trust (the “Trust”)
Supplement dated October 30, 2020 to the Prospectus
and Statement of Additional Information, each dated April 30, 2020
At the request of Kellner Capital Management (“Kellner”), the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Advisors Series Trust (“AST”) has reviewed information relating to Kellner’s request to reorganize the Kellner Merger Fund (the “Target Fund”) into the AXS Merger Fund, a new fund (the “Acquiring Fund”) that will be created as a series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Reorganization”). The Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective and substantially similar strategies and policies as the Target Fund. The Reorganization will be structured as a tax-free reorganization for federal tax purposes and is subject to a number of conditions, including the receipt of approval by the shareholders of the Target Fund.
The proposed Reorganization will result in a change in your Fund’s management arrangements. AXS Investments LLC (“AXS”) will serve as the new investment advisor to the Acquiring Fund and Kellner will serve as sub-advisor with the same portfolio managers as for the Target Fund responsible for day-to-day management of the Acquiring Fund. There will also be no change in advisory fees for the Acquiring Fund compared to the Target Fund. The Acquiring Fund will be overseen by a different Board of Trustees as it will not be a part of AST, but will instead be part of Investment Managers Series Trust II. The Acquiring Fund will have different service providers than the Target Fund.
Based on the material provided to the Board, the Board considered the Agreement and Plan of Reorganization at a meeting held on October 19, 2020 and thereafter approved the Reorganization on October 23, 2020, subject to the approval of the Acquired Fund’s shareholders. The Agreement and Plan of Reorganization provides for an exchange of shares of the Target Fund for shares of the Acquiring Fund, which would be distributed pro rata by the Acquiring Fund to the holders of the shares of such class in complete liquidation of the Target Fund, and the Acquiring Fund’s assumption of all liabilities of the Target Fund. Shareholders of the Target Fund will receive shares of the Acquiring Fund equal in value to the shares of the Target Fund held by the shareholders prior to the Reorganization.
More detailed information about the Reorganization and the changes that will result from the Reorganization will be provided in a proxy statement that is expected to be sent to shareholders in the coming weeks. When you receive your proxy statement, please review it and cast your vote to avoid any future solicitations.
* * * * * * * * * *
Please retain this Supplement with the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information.

Alright, here's mine. Oct. 30th, 2020:
Taxable: PTIAX -.02 cents, or -0.09% ........... YTD: +3.34%
IRAs:
Bruce BRUFX: -$3.39 or -0.57% YTD -0.11%
PRWCX -.02 cents or -0.06% +6.57%
PRSNX -.01 cent or -0.09% +4.51%
PRIDX -$1.02 or -1.26% +16.54
PRDSX -.45 cents or -1.09% +2.87%
RPSIX -.02 cents or -0.16% +0.11%
Way too much work to do weekly or monthly performance. The lot of them are down quite a bit, just since last week or so. Covid raging, earnings, other junk?

10/30/20
Fund Price Shrs Total
IRA
FBSOX $80.35 1490.922 $119,795.56
FSCSX $23.68 6911.407 $163,662.12
FSMEX $70.07 894.361 $62,667.84
FSRPX $20.51 2626.641 $53,872.40
FSPTX $25.95 7730.426 $200,604.55
FSPHX $31.05 1788.444 $55,531.20
FOCPX $15.08 9010.463 $135,877.78
Taxable
FNCMX $137.78 1664.039 $229,271.33
FBGRX $139.35 1368.101 $190,644.87
cash 0 0 $0.00
Total ----- ----- $1,211,927.65
YTD 21.19%
MTD -3.37%
Copying my spreadsheet as with M* and ACI this took about 4% of editing as on M* where ACI took about 5% of M* time.
Rich

You're right about my confusing $ and %.
(BTW, one drags the left edge of the slider to specific start dates. Editing errors by one and all :-))
My point about setting specific dates was not that you couldn't do this with the StockCharts slider (or with the M* slider for that matter). Rather, it was that requiring the use of a slider to input precise dates is poor UI design. (You had written that you "found Stockcharts to be more user friendly".)
Here are excerpts from a couple of UI pages:

Slider Design: Rules of Thumb
Summary: Selecting a precise value using a slider is a difficult task requiring good motor skills, even if the slider is well designed. If picking an exact value is important to the goal of the interface, choose an alternate UI element.

https://www.nngroup.com/articles/gui-slider-controls/

When website sliders don’t work
...
[S]ometimes, sliders aren’t the answer. For instance, if your users need to select very precise information. Sometimes sliders can make it harder for users to land on a value if the range is too large.

https://www.justinmind.com/blog/the-complete-guide-to-designing-slider-controls
For me, data is paramount. If the data isn't there, it really doesn't matter whether one tool is easier or harder than another to use. Could one answer this question with StockCharts: What funds have never had a losing year? In a slightly different form, this was actually asked in another thread this year; it's not a hypothetical exercise.
Consider TGLMX (formerly TCW Galileo Mortgage-Backed Securities Fund). It last lost money in 1999. StockCharts can't tell you this, because it doesn't have complete 1999 data for the fund.
StockCharts performance graph of TGLMX (try "sliding" all the way to the left)
M* graph showing a 0.46% loss for TGLMX in 1999.
TGLMX prospectus from 2000 showing a 0.46% loss for TGLMX in 1999.
StockCharts data for TGLMX starts on Jan 7, 1999. The fund lost about 1/2% in price in the first week of 1999 (you can check prices at Yahoo), and about 1/2% for the whole year. That means that the fund was essentially flat from Jan 7, 1999 to Dec 31, 1999. But StockCharts says that the fund lost 4.89% over this period (you might double check my reading). That's a huge discrepancy.
You may tolerate small data errors, but for me this is game over. To paraphrase the late Senator Dirksen, a percentage here, a percentage there, and pretty soon we're talking real money.

Interesting group of funds thus far presented here. A quick and dirty review suggests SVARX has for me provided the most appealing combination of total return and downside protection from this group during its lifetime (7 years).....September saw me moving ~5% of my portfolio from bond funds to utility stocks. Will include SVARX in my thinking about possible changes among the bond funds.

It's interesting to look at 10 and 15 year performance of different mutual funds. If a fund has an impressive 10 and 15 year return (above average), but has struggle over the last three to five year period I look for reasons why. Sometimes it's a reason to stay away. Sometimes it's a reason to add to my watch list.
Energy/Natural Resource funds and also value tilted funds seem to be full of under performer right now.

Vanguard now reports YTD (10/29) of $1.75, StockCharts reports $1.73, and M* reports $1.75. That's more than yesterday's penny's worth of rounding error. While I appreciate that real investors care about real account balances, I consider the fund itself to be the authoritative source.
M* has a slider that can be used in the same way as with StockCharts. Curiously the StockCharts slider has one additional feature: the ability to enter explicitly the span of a timeframe, but not where that timeframe sits. M*, in contrast, provides the ability to input explicitly the beginning and end dates. I find that more valuable, as setting both dates automatically defines the span, while inputting the span does not determine the dates.
How would you get the total return of VWINX from 2/21/20 to 3/23/20?
The ability to show relative performance in a StockCharts graph is a cute little feature. It, like the ability to sort "historgrams" (more accurately called bar charts), presents an alternate visualization of data it has graphed.
StockCharts seems to carry a limited data set. When I ask PerfChart for "all" the data it has on VWINX, it only goes back to 1/4/1999. We all know that Wellesley is older than that. 1994 is an important down year to look at. It's just not there. M* provides the whole history back to 1970.
My personal bottom line is that I can live with almost any UI, but I can't live without accurate and complete data.

Key Points:
° Over the last 25 years, exceptionally outstanding fund performance nearly across the board was followed 5 years later by poor performance; this happened beginning in 2000, 2007, and 2014.
° When only a small number of funds excelled after the 2007-09 bear market, all were doing poorly by 5 years later.
° In early 2015, funds that were previously among the biggest performance winners suffered sharp dropoffs by 2020; the table below shows these funds and how badly they wound up doing.
° If these trends continue, the funds I list doing unusually well right now may not be your best choices for the next 5 years.
November Edition