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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M* Fund Spy: How Risky Is Risky in World-Bond Funds?
    "Global-bond fund managers routinely disclose fund-level credit-quality, sector, region, and country exposure breakdowns on their websites, but it can be extremely difficult to deduce where a strategy is taking its credit risk. It can also be hard to discern how far afield it is from the commonly used Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index. Earlier this summer we rolled out a new Fixed Income Exposure Analysis, or FIEA, component for Morningstar Direct and Morningstar Office users to help investors make sense of their individual portfolios and thereby make better comparisons across funds. Elements of this will be available in fund reports on Morningstar.com and other products later this summer."
    Karin Anderson for Fund Spy
  • Mutual Fund Winners Don’t Stay Ahead for Long
    The purpose of MTUM is to use "Exposure to large- and mid-cap U.S. stocks exhibiting relatively higher price momentum" and not value or growth and why it needs to compare to SPY(blend index) + MC.
    MTUM easily beat SPY for 1-3-5 and since inception.
    For growth QQQ easily beat VOOG,VONG for 1-3-5-10 years and it also beat TRBCX for 1-3-5-10 years.
  • anti-contrarian lesson (?)
    From the article
    The lesson: The stock market doesn’t follow a predictable playbook. Even when it seems to follow a pattern, that pattern is subject to change without notice. Result: Efforts to outsmart the market often turn into exercises in frustration. In my view, though, this is actually a benefit: It means that you don’t need to spend much time, if any, trying to stay ahead of the market.
    Generally, it's correct. If you do a bit more analysis you knew that the biggest high tech companies are the most dominated for years decades and why I been posting about QQQ as a good sub for some of your US LC and definitely instead of SC and international.
    SP500 get about 40% of the revenue from abroad and QQQ about 50%.
    Investment legend Peter Lynch said it best: “I think if you spent over 13 minutes a year on economics, you’ve wasted over 10 minutes. I mean, it’s not helpful. Everybody wants to predict the future, and I’ve tried to call the 1-800 psychic hotlines. It hasn’t helped. The only thing I would look at is what’s happening right now.”
    I have been saying it for years disregard the economy, unemployment, hundreds of articles and "experts" I only look at what’s happening right now by using charts and trend. The price is your best indicator real time, it is what sellers and buyers agreed on and definitely don't invest based on predictions since many are wrong and/or months/years away.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Invested within my stock and bond asset allocation of 15% cash, 45% income and 40% equity; and, currently building cash as I believe stock and bond valuations are stretched. I am awaiting a stock market pull back before I put new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio. When interest rates start to rise I will trim from the income side.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Order placed to liquidate my moderate-sized position in VMVFX that I've had since 2014 for 15% LTCGs. I've noticed it's starting to own more large global corps (Alibaba, JnJ, etc) that are not in the small/mid-cap range that once attracted me to it. Plus not sure I still want to be in small/mid-caps these days, either.
  • T Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund Changing Name, Reducing Fees
    I posted purely for informational purposes. Not intended to be a recommendation. I have a rather small investment in the fund and received the client email. I passed it along along for the benefit of T. Rowe Price clients who may frequent the board. The current ER is 0.30%. The new ER will be 0.25%. No doubt you can buy the index cheaper elsewhere.
    One notable feature is absence of any other fees (low balance, IRA maintenance, etc.) as long as one keeps at least $50,000 with T. Rowe Price or elects to receive electronic statements. (They do ask clients to maintain at least $1,000 in accounts and will close accounts that remain under $1,000 after a specified number of days.)
  • T Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund Changing Name, Reducing Fees
    @Crash
    The performance of PBDIX is fully inline with the bond sectors it holds.
    Is is not outperforming it's index or category benchmarks.
    What you are witnessing with this fund is the blended performance of AAA-BBB rated U.S. bonds for the YTD; nothing more, nothing less.
    You may have missed this data from a few days ago:
    The price performance benefit of low yields:
    YTD.......
    --- MINT = +1.15% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB quality)
    --- SHY = +3.04% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +7.35% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +12.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +8.5% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = + 24.1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +27.3% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +36.4% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +39.2% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -.3% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +9.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
  • Mutual Fund Winners Don’t Stay Ahead for Long
    Here's the NYTimes link:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/business/mutual-fund-winners-stocks-bonds.html
    I ran across this study a couple of months ago. You can find a list of Prof. Choi's papers (including links to free versions) here:
    https://faculty.som.yale.edu/jameschoi/research/
    The referenced paper goes by a different title in that list. There it is called Carhart (1997) Mutual Fund Performance Persistence Disappears Out of Sample
    If you want to read a version (virtually the same) with the title mentioned in the NYTimes article, here's another link. This version is not easily downloadable.
    http://docplayer.net/141854703-Did-mutual-fund-return-persistence-persist-a-replication-and-extension-of-carhart-1997.html
  • Bond Yields Are Sending a Scary Signal on Stocks
    Old_Joe: I'm a value investor, but Value has been taking it on the chin for quite a while.
    +1 I keep hearing for years the following
    1) what about value and growth beat it by so much
    2) the market is expensive but it keeps going up
    3) rates can only go up but they keep going down and why bond have been doing great
    4) PE,PE10 are high, inverted yield signals the next meltdown and...stocks go up
    5) diversification is great and it wasn't and I'm talking about wide indexes such as SC, MC, international. The SP500 had better performance with lower volatility.
    6) Inflation will be higher and kill the economy and it's not high for years.
    These "experts" missed the fact that the Fed is controlling these markets since 2009 and conventional ideas are not working.
    Basically, I disregard all "experts" and articles, their job is to sell you something and/or can't predict the future and definitely can't predict what will happen in the next several months ;-)
  • T Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund Changing Name, Reducing Fees
    “Effective October 1, 2020, the T. Rowe Price U.S. Bond Enhanced Index Fund (PBDIX) will change its name to the T. Rowe Price QM U.S. Bond Index Fund to better reflect how the fund is managed. Additionally, we will change the fund’s fee structure and lower fees, also effective October 1, 2020. We will also launch a new I Class, which will incept on October 5, 2020 and be publicly available on October 7, 2020.”
    Price periodically changes a fund’s name to better reflect its style. Couple others come to mind that underwent name changes: TRRIX, TRIGX. Likely many more. Wondering whether any other of their index funds will receive fee reductions?
    Above excerpt pulled from email to clients. Here’s a link to their actual public announcement - LINK
  • Vanguard U.S. Value Fund (investor class) to be reorganized
    Not meant as a recommendation, but if you're interested in a fund with Marathon as the sole advisor, you could look at HAINX and HAIDX. M* says that the difference is that the former is restricted to developed markets. Though the latter holds just 12% in EM.
    HAINX uses 8 managers from Marathon, including the two Marathon managers on VHGEX. HAIDX adds a ninth manager to the mix.
    Harbor's funds are all submanaged. While Harbor's fees are not as low as Vanguard's (whose are?), they are modest for the institutional share class ($50K min) of their funds.
    HAINX was a great fund in the 1990s and 2000s, managed by Hakan Castegren of Northern Cross. The fund added four Northern Cross managers in 2009. Unfortunately the remaining team did not do well with the fund, and in mid-2018 Harbor switched the fund's advisor from Northern Cross to Marathon. (Shortly after it lost the Harbor contract, Northern Cross shut down.)
  • Exciting New Territory for the S&P 500
    SP index analyst Howard Silverblatt on 2nd quarter S&P 500 earnings:
    "For Q2 2020, 313 issues have reported, as estimates for Q2 2020 have been reduced 47.9% since the start of the year, which explains why 257 issues, an astonishing 82.1% of the issues, have beaten them (the historical average is 67%). "
    Estimates are way easier to beat when you lower them by nearly half, notes John Waggoner. BTW, the S&P500 increased 5.51% (5.64 with dividends), and the three-month period return was up 12.23% (12.87% w dividends).
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Thanks @MikeM for the comment. I was aware of your past experience with PRPFX. I slowly established a position during 2014 and 2015 after most of the euphoria with gold had subsided. January 4, 2016 I converted it to a Roth (and discussed that here). Oil was in the dumps back than (bottoming at $26 later in January). I’m satisfied with the fund’s performance post-conversion. IMHO the fund requires a very long-term perspective and a certain personal philosophical leaning regarding money, risk, value - and markets as well. So it is definitely not for everyone.
    Today it represents 11.6% of invested assets. It is the only fund I’ve chosen not to rebalance or take any distributions from in retirement. That’s intentional, as it will grow to a larger and larger portion of total investments over time. Umm ... I don’t know how large a % I’m willing to allow the fund to become. As I grow older and more conservative it may replace some riskier assets in the allocation model - particularly in the “real assets” & “balanced” sleeves room exists. I’d think 35% of total portfolio might work.
    Yup - it has appeal as a lower volatility substitute for gold. That’s to the chagrin of us longer term investors who hold it through thick and thin.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    @hank, as my CDs have matured and yield on CDs and MMs have gone to virtually nothing, I've also been changing "cash" into other holdings. But I've been keeping those other holdings on the conservative side. Nothing too speculative. Not reaching for yield since all my retirement money is in IRA and 401k. I'm just interested in steady, conservative, total return for this substitute for cash... with the understanding I'm also adding risk.
    I've invested quite a bit of "cash" into 2 places, short term treasuries by an ETF, ISTB (Ishares 1-5 year duration) and put a substantial amount into a conservative alternative fund, MNWAX.
    I used to own PRPFX years ago. As you probably remember it was one of the darlings of the board during and after the 2008 recession. By memory, I think the stocks it holds are geared towards energy which hasn't been in favor for quite a while. Always thought of it as a conservative play on gold.
  • Exciting New Territory for the S&P 500
    Interesting concept:
    It seems in this exciting new territory for the S&P 500, stock prices are reacting more to changes in the expected rate of growth of the Fed's balance sheet than they are to changes in the expected rate of growth of the S&P 500's underlying dividends per share.
    How long that might last is anyone's guess. The only thing we know for certain is that eventually, all periods of relative order, disorder, disruptive events, or bubbles in the stock market come to an end. It's only ever a question of when.
    order-disorder-disruptive-events
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    @hank You noted:
    I’m accepting this added risk to help compensate for the extraordinarily low current interest rates
    The price performance benefit of those low yields:
    YTD.......
    --- MINT = +1.15% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB quality)
    --- SHY = +3.04% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +7.35% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +12.2% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +8.5% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- LTPZ = + 24.1% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
    --- TLT = +27.3% (20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +36.4% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +39.2% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
    ***Other, for reference, not AAA rated:
    --- HYG = -.3% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- LQD = +9.8% (corp. bonds, various quality)
    Balanced funds with properly positioned bond holdings have had great benefit to date to offset many equity positions which continue to struggle YTD.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @hank,
    Thanks for posting your allocation and writing about how you portfolio is constructed. I'm going to study your alternative sleeve and see how this sleeve Xrays using a 50/30/20 weighting. Perhaps you would be willing to comment some more about it?
    In looking at PRPFX it looks like it would be a good fit for my niche sleeve. It had the better downside and upsside performance over my current funds in the sleeve during the recent market swoon and the better returns out through 5 years after that the other funds have the advantage.
    With this, I've now have placed it on my buy pending list awaiting better buying conditions as I just, for the most part, don't buy funds while they are at their 52 week highs.
    Old_Skeet
  • Vanguard U.S. Value Fund (investor class) to be reorganized
    The Vanguard Global Equity Fund is the only Vanguard fund that Marathon advises.
    Marathon has advised this fund since its inception in 1995.
    From the December 2018 issue of 'The Independent Advisor for Vanguard Investors' newsletter:
    "Original manager Marathon Asset Management generated strong returns when Global Equity got its start. Vanguard then added Acadian Asset Manangement in 2004 and Alliance Bernstein in 2006, and performance suffered. Baillie Gifford was hired as a fourth sub-advisor in 2008, but oversaw just 5% of the portfolio for several years."
    "Since Baillie Gifford came on board in April 2008 through the end of September 2018, Global Equity returned 78.9%. Marathon's separate account was up 101.0% - meaning the fund still hasn't performed as well in its new form as it would have under Marathon's sole management. Baillie Gifford's separate account gained a terrific 136.9%. And as I said, Acadian's individual record brings up the rear with a 72.9% return."
  • Vanguard U.S. Value Fund (investor class) to be reorganized
    Although Vanguard is often associated with indexing, its actively managed funds had more than $1.4 trillion AUM as of 12/31/2019. This makes Vanguard the third-largest active investment manager in the U.S. Low fees and talented management teams (e.g. Wellington, Primecap, Baillie Gifford) provide a considerable advantage.
    Here are some of my favorite Vanguard active equity funds:
    VHCAX, VPCCX, VPMAX - 100% managed by Primecap.
    VDIGX, VWIAX, VWENX - 100% managed by Wellington.
    VEIRX - 64% managed by Wellington, 34% managed by Vanguard, 1% cash.
    VWILX - 66% managed by Baillie Gifford, 33% managed by Schroder, 1% cash.
    Vanguard Global Equity Fund (VHGEX) is also on my radar now since two of the
    subadvisors were removed (Alliance Bernstein in 2012, Acadian in 2018).
    VHGEX - 50% managed by Baillie Gifford, 47% managed by Marathon, 3% cash
    Some actively managed Vanguard funds have too many subadvisors which adds unecessary complexity and often results in subpar performance.