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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • "Think this through with me". (RPGAX)
    "Let me know your mind." Uncle John's Band, The Grateful Dead. Enjoy the FULL album, HERE:

    How much of my stuff should I transfer into RPGAX?
    I want to keep a retired man's less risky portfolio. I'm 52% in bonds, and I like the monthly dividends--- though not needing them, yet. Those are being re-invested. Some of those bonds are in PRWCX, too. I do want a healthy amount in stocks, though--- with heirs in mind. I honestly cannot see me using the PRINCIPAL in the portfolio. With wife's income, I don't need to do it. The small chunks I take each year can certainly grow back through the following year. And if the Market goes South, I will just refrain from taking that annual chunk. That's as much of a strategy as I can describe.
    Stocks are still 40% of portfolio. 11% is already in foreign stuff. And RPGAX holds just a bit more in foreign stuff than it does in US stuff. But bonds comprise the plurality. ...I don't want to be performance-chasing. I surely don't want to REPLACE PRWCX. I've got a small amount in foreign smid-caps, too, in PRIDX. (Both PRWCX and PRIDX are closed.) Or should I just wait and save $$$ in order to invest in RPGAX? Maybe that makes the most sense. But I just consolidated and concentrated my stuff, deliberately, before retiring here to live in the sun. (Wet season has been WET, though!)
    I'd be glad for your input about this. RPGAX has drifted in and out of my attention for quite a while. Thank you.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    20 cents a gallon in 1921 is the equivalent of $2.94 today (CPI).
    Basically gasoline cost the same then as it does now.
    yup, and if you shopped around a gallon of gas stayed at that level (and lower than that with inflation) for the next 4-5 decades.
  • This Summer Could Be the Start of a New Roaring Twenties
    US Global Investor - Investor Weekly:
    A little over a hundred years ago, the United States emerged from the double whammy of a world war and deadly pandemic. Eager to get back to “normal” life, Americans went on a decade-long spending splurge, buying cars and radios and stocks.
    Although we all know how it ended, the Roaring Twenties was largely a product of pent-up demand.
    This summer, I believe we could see the start of a similar demand-driven economic boom as millions of Americans, newly vaccinated and $1,400 richer, make up for lost time by booking flights and vacations, going on cruises, visiting family out of state and more.
    As I shared with you earlier this month, close to $18 trillion sit in Americans’ savings accounts right now—a record amount. Much of this cash is just waiting to be unleased into the U.S. economy.
    https://usfunds.com/investor-library/investor-alert
  • F.O.M.O. etf, Fear Of Missing Out ..... All Aboard, for the train to everywhere/everything !!!
    A Bloomberg video about this etf exists, but I do not have access at this time, as I'm not a subscriber.

    FOMO, short overview
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Excellent articles thank you for posting!
    Do wonder the models account for crazy investing manias which we def have now, potential huge war on our turf, we mess with the wrong folks we'd most def see missle rain on our turf or em pulse knocking out our infrastructure and regardless will we experience extreme socialism where we are headed, that won't be good for stonks
    I would think all bets are off and then the question will be can we cross borders with our wealth
    Also how much more impact will bitcoin have? Will it turn into the place to be or another investing farce?
    With advances in genetics do you need to push the curve out to 55, 60 years??
    Good health and good luck to all
    Baseball Fan
  • suppler and more sensible takes on SWR
    Thanks @ davidmorn
    I am also intrigued by Pfau's & Kitces studies that suggest:
    In a world where the conventional wisdom is that retirees should reduce their equity exposure throughout retirement as their time horizon shortens, this research suggests that in reality, the ideal may actually be the exact opposite.
    and,
    if the portfolio is depleted too severely by withdrawals and bad returns in the early years, there won’t be enough (or any) money left for when the good returns finally arrive. And notably, the truly dire situations are not merely severe market crashes that occur shortly after retirement, but instead the extended periods of “merely mediocre” returns that last for more than a decade, which are far too long to “wait out” just using some cash and intermediate bond buckets. Conversely, when the equity glidepath is rising and the retiree adds to equities throughout retirement (and/or especially in the first half of retirement), then by the time the market reaches a bottom and the next big bull market finally begins, equity exposure is greater and the retiree can participate even more!
    I have often thought...
    Own retirement date funds (that have a glide path) towards initial retirement (your retirement date) and then re-cast these "retirement date " funds out over your retirement horizon in increments that maximize a SWR, Portfolio Duration (You do not want to have a chance of failing after only 10 years if you are planning for 50 years), and Terminal Value.
    Here's a link to Kitces discussion on the topic:
    https://kitces.com/blog/should-equity-exposure-decrease-in-retirement-or-is-a-rising-equity-glidepath-actually-better/
  • FPACX VERSUS SOR
    SOR looks like a reasonable alternative for FPACX if you're interested in a different fund from the same management team. As such it's somewhat similar, and has a fair coefficient of correlation (0.72, meaning an R² of 0.52), per Portfolio Visualizer.
    FPACX vs. SOR chart over lifetime of FPACX
    One (SOR) holds 43 stocks, the other 56 (both as of Dec 31, per M*). One (SOR) is 35% in US stocks, the other 50%. One (SOR) is short 5% in cash (still net 12% positive), the other isn't shorting but is long 21% in cash. Same management, same investment space, yes. Clones or near copies, no.
    The 8% discount is the lowest discount in 3 years, looking at the 3 year graph at CEFConnect (click on "pricing", then select the graph's 3 year tab). Its one year Z score is 1.96, its six month score is 3.54. I'm not a closed end fund investor, so I can't suggest what time frame is best to look at, but this doesn't strike me as a good time to buy if what you're looking at is the size of the discount.
    M* (via Fidelity) writes: "In our opinion, a z-score of less than -2 signals that a fund is relatively inexpensive, and a z-score greater than +2 signals that a fund is relatively expensive."
    On the topic of discounts, just as a discount boosts the effective yield of a bond fund, it also boosts the effective expense ratio of a fund. That 0.97% ER is 0.97% of NAV. Since you'd be purchasing at an 8% discount, the effective ER for you would be 0.97%/0.92 = 1.05%. That's the same ER as FPACX according to M* if you exclude borrowing costs. (Some people think this is more meaningful, many do not.)
    If you like SOR, that's fine, go for it. But don't do it as an attempt to buy an FPACX clone and save a few bucks in the process.
  • Small Cap Value
    Concerning M* and BRSVX, the link below indicates that Gamestop was BRSVX's largest holding, at 1.96%; I believe it is based on 3/12/21 figures. The link indicates also that the Gamestop position was up on 1303.93% since it was first purchased 9/30/18. The Michaels Stores position is up 66.52% since it was announced that it was going to be taken private again.
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=BRSVX&region=usa&culture=en-US
  • Small Cap Value
    "DFFVX is UP 17.31% YTD while FCPVX is UP 25.13% YTD. (I confirmed that data on their respective sites. M* YTD TR data for the latter is incorrect.) "
    First US News, now slamming M*.
    Fidelity's FCPVX is up 25.13 YTD though March 11. (There's this funky little asterisk on the YTD figure that reads "*AS OF 3/11/2021".)
    DFA's DFFVX is up 17.21% YTD through February 28. (The table says "annualized, but it has a footnote saying that "Performance less than one year is not annualized.")
    FCPVX was up "just" 15.63% through February 28, per the cited Fidelity page. Same as M*.
    Can you say Beardstown Ladies? Typos like writing 17.31% instead of 17.21% are common and understandable (more so if links are provided to check sources); comparing apples and oranges is not.
    This apples to oranges comparison resulted in a making FCPVX look better than it was. It's very easy to imply bad intent, if you get my drift. IMHO here, as with US News and its formulaic fund rankings, a cigar is just a cigar.
  • Small Cap Value
    As of 12/31/2020, the largest holding of BRSVX was GameStop. Not a stock I would expect John Montgomery to buy, but what do I know? M* claims the stock has gained 6,500% over the previous year. My experience with Bridgeway funds was that some years are blowouts and others the obverse.
  • Small Cap Value
    I picked US News as only an example that supported some of the SCV funds identified above. I could have picked another example such as:
    https://mutualfunds.com/equity-categories/us-small-cap-value-equity-funds-and-etfs/
    or something else for that matter, but I did not.
    It was not intended that US News should be used as the final say on one's investment decision. I hope each and every reader/op does their own homework before they invest.
    PVFIX, based on the M* information as of 2/28/21, was 7.31% YTD and in the 100% rank category. However, the trailing total return, as of 3/11/21 was 13.27% not 7.31%. The fund started to slowly increase as of March 5. Incidentally, Pinnacle's website states that is performance YTD is 12.60% - http://www.pinnaclevaluefund.com/performance.aspx
    Are there better SCV funds? Sure, but the OP asked for other possibilities for consideration.
    Also, with the exception of several standout small cap growth funds, there seems to be a resurgence in the SCV arena that has been out of favor for past several years (which is why I mentioned short/long term objective). BRSIX, BRUSX and others have seen some significant percentage of increases in 2021, but it is still early. For example, as of 3/11/21, the YTD total trailing return for BRUSX was 37.31%; BRSIX was 41.73% and BRSVX was 48.02% (I picked on Bridgeway as an example). Even WSCVX's total trailing return was 29.46% YTD as of 3/11/21. I am sure there are other SCV funds that have performed as comparably as well.
    I have been investing in BRUSX and PRSVX for the last several years when SCV was out of favor; I am finally seeing the fruits of my long term investing perseverance.
  • Small Cap Value
    Trigger finger a little slow today ? @msf
    Stay safe Derf
    "Pancho met his match, you know, in the deserts down in Mexico..."
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Less than a year ago you (or your commodities / real assets fund manager) could have purchased a futures contract for oil selling at below $0. Much better to have had that kind of foresight / act in a timely manner than to be piling into oil and other commodities after huge one-year run-ups. Not to say they won’t continue to surge. Just saying ...
    Generally, I think the best way to stay ahead of inflation is to be a good investor. Lots of good investors here. “Steady as she goes.” Grow the portfolio.
    Re commodities - I’ve always kept around 10% in commodities, precious metals and real estate funds for diversification as well as an inflation hedge. Actually pulled back a bit recently after nice run-up.
    @bee - Thanks for the question. Worth discussing.
    -
    Referenced Story (April 2020)
    US oil prices turned negative for the first time on record on Monday. ... The price of US crude oil crashed from $18 a barrel to -$38 in a matter of hours, as rising stockpiles of crude threatened to overwhelm storage facilities and forcedoil producers to pay buyers to take the barrels they could not store ... On Tuesday prices rebounded above above zero, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for May changing hands at $1.10 a barrel after closing at -$37.63 in New York on Monday.”
    For reference - Oil today is priced in the $65-$70 range.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Even with the loss of over 500,000 lives from the pandemic, some jobs are eliminated permanently. Small service type such as restaurants are closed for good while the larger chains may survive by cutting back on the work force.
  • Small Cap Value
    DFFVX is UP 17.31% YTD while FCPVX is UP 25.13% YTD. (I confirmed that data on their respective sites. M* YTD TR data for the latter is incorrect.)
    That ~+8% better YTD performance is despite the fact that FCPVX is historically a worse performer in UP markets than DFFVX and is likely do in part at least to the return of Derek Janssen as its PM in 02/21.
    Here are the historical facts:
    DFFVX is a M* 3* rated fund currently, and for each of the past 3-, 5- and 10-yr prior periods.
    FCPVX is a M* 5* rated fund currently, M* 4* for 3- and 5-year prior periods and a 5* for the prior 10-yr period.
    As you know, funds earn those stars on past, actual performance. They don't drive my investment decisions, but they are certainly a factor.
    All other measurements from SD to Sharpe to Sortino to Capture ratio clearly favor FCPVX over DFFVX. These are ALL important investment decision drivers for me.
    M* metal (read, "analyst") ratings are worth the cyberspace they're written on in my book. DFFVX's silver rating, while sounding impressive, is doing nothing to help it come close to the first page of SCV funds that I scope.
    US News rankings are even more worthless to me then M* metal rankings. That lofty #1 ranking hasn't helped it any this year either.
    I make my own determination on how I think a given fund will perform in coming periods.
    Investors are always free to choose their investments. I easily chose FCPVX over DFFVX.
    YMMV and I'm done with this discussion.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    Just as a point of reference - seasonally adjusted jobs peaked in December 2019 at 151,919,000. There are currently only 143,148,000 SA jobs. Hold on while I check unadjusted.
    Unadjusted jobs peaked at 153,095,000 they are currently 141,926,000. So, in my opinion, a long way to go to return to full employment.
  • FPACX VERSUS SOR
    Like our host David, I'm fond of FAPACX. However it has a high expense ratio and is not available as a transaction free fund. on Fidelity, Schwab or Vanguard. Now I'm aware that Fidelity has a good follow on purchase program for additional shares for the purchase price of $5 based on signing up for for a series of purchases. However you will not get the purchase done the day you sign up for the automatic investment. This is not desirable. I like to buy more shares on days the market drops.
    In addition you have to commit for additional purchases for designated purchases by date, time period and amount. Fidelity is lenient and will let you cancel the follow on purchase from what I have read.
    Now I've been buying SOR which is managed by the same advisors and appears to hold the same stocks. There bond portfolio is a little different but somewhat similar as SOR can buy less liquid structed credit. SOR's expense ratio is lower and 1.21 versus .97. In addition SOR is selling currently at an 8% discount to NAV. the only issue I have with SOR that it's daily volume is very low so the bid ask spread is wide. I generally place only limit orders to prevent unpleasant surprises.
    Is their any reason why I should buy FPACX instead of SOR?
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    I read somewhere that wage inflation is the inflationary trigger (indicator) to watch. It will be interesting to see where wages are once we get back to full employment. Today's low interest rates have already triggered real estate price inflation.
    Here's Larry Summer's Take on Impeding Higher Inflation: