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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Public/Private-Credit ETF PRIV with Liquidity Provider Apollo
    New questions are already being raised after PRIV started trading on 2/27/25. Its name is being changed effective 3/21/25; basically, as further correspondence between SSGA and SEC explains, "Apollo" is being dropped from the name because while Apollo is the primary limited liquidity provider, there may be other liquidity providers. Some prospectus descriptions may also be revised. This is unusual or irregular - why weren't these issues addressed before the trading began?
    Current Name: SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF
    New Name: SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/sec-in-hot-seat-over-private-credit-etf-approval.html
    SSGA Filings
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1516212/000000000025002259/filename1.pdf
    https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1516212
    Edit/Add, 3/11/25. Morningstar's critical take on this issue,
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/will-sec-force-changes-ssga-apollo-private-credit-etf
  • YBB’s weekly Barron’s summaries
    @BaluBalu, presentation is certainly confusing.
    Fair Value and Current Price displayed are real-time or daily prices.
    Star-ratings are updated monthly (analyst-generated), but may be updated more frequently for computer-generated Q-ratings. So, 5* displayed for CWEN seems stale.
    More confusion is created by stating the as-of date.
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Saw this hilarious sale pitch at CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/08/ultrawealthy-to-retail-investors-expanding-access-to-private-credit.html
    Pull quote:
    BondBloxx’s Joanna Gallegos thinks it’s a great idea despite the asset class’ reputation for charging high fees and academic research that have shown sluggish returns. Her firm launched the BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) about three months ago.
    “We don’t believe in the velvet rope. We believe in connecting markets,” the firm’s co-founder and chief operating officer told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “People have not had access to it. It makes sense in a portfolio. People should have access to … a power tool like that in their portfolio.”
    Yet another Minsky Moment?
  • NOAA Said to Be Planning to Shrink Staff by 20 Percent
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The New York Times:
    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier agency for weather and climate science, has been told by the Trump administration to prepare to lose another 1,000 workers, raising concerns that NOAA’s lifesaving forecasts might be hindered as hurricane and disaster season approaches.
    The new dismissals would come in addition to the roughly 1,300 NOAA staff members who have already resigned or been laid off in recent weeks. The moves have alarmed scientists, meteorologists and others at the agency, which includes the National Weather Service. Some activities, including the launching of weather balloons, have already been suspended because of staffing shortages.
    Together, the reductions would represent nearly 20 percent of NOAA’s approximately 13,000-member work force.
    Managers within NOAA have been told to draw up proposals for layoffs and reorganizations to trim the agency’s staff by at least 1,000 people, according to eight people who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss the plans publicly. NOAA managers have been asked to complete their proposals by Tuesday, one of the people said. The proposals are likely to involve eliminating some of the agency’s functions, though managers have received little guidance about which programs to prioritize for cutting.
    The recent employee departures have already affected NOAA’s operations in many realms: predicting hurricanes and tornadoes, overseeing fisheries and endangered species, monitoring the changes that humans are bringing about to Earth’s climate and ecosystems.
    NOAA has been singled out for cuts by some of Mr. Trump’s allies. Project 2025 calls NOAA “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry.” The document calls for the agency to be dismantled and some of its functions eliminated or privatized. The idea that private companies could replace NOAA in forecasting the weather is a “gross misunderstanding,” said Keith Seitter, a distinguished visiting lecturer in meteorology and climate science at College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, Mass: “The app on your phone or what you’re watching on TV, those are private-sector companies, but those private-sector companies depend critically on NOAA for all the information that they’re using to create those forecasts,” Dr. Seitter said. “It’s a coordinated effort.”
    Employees who are still working at NOAA describe feelings of deep anxiety. Their colleagues have been let go unannounced, meaning they have no idea who might simply not show up for work. With their government-issued credit cards frozen, they can’t buy supplies for research projects or travel to retrieve instruments that have been installed at sea. They are scrambling to back up their scientific data, fearful that programs might be shuttered or leases on buildings canceled.
  • Mid-Year MFO Ratings Posted ... New Navigation Bar
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 7 March 2025. Flows remain updated through 28 February.
  • Gimme Credit - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Surprised myself, after a quick check of the chart, YTD. My Junk is holding its own, but my core-plus fund is doing better so far, this year, amid all the turmoil.
    TUHYX 1.46%. Yield is 7.32
    PRCPX 1.56 Yield is 7.03
    WCPNX 2.25. Yield is 5.06
    (Morningstar.)
    Despite this, I've been noticing WCPNX is more volatile, though not by much. If my Junk were to behave like a stable value MM fund which offers a 7 percent+ yield, I'd be gleeful. Lately, it's ALMOST behaving that way.
  • Gimme Credit - latest memo from Howard Marks
    Nice @Mark.
    High yield credits are a rewarding area for investment. What people need to remember is they behave more like equities than traditional bonds during periods of market stress. So, considering a “whole” portfolio, high quality bonds (especially AAA rated) can rise in value and add stability during rough times, while high yield bonds are more likely to sink along with your equities exacerbating your losses.
    * 2022 was an exception & may have taught “the wrong lesson”. Due to the extremely rapid series of rate increases implemented by the Fed, high quality bonds suffered steep losses right along with equities. Actually, the funds I’ve looked at that had some lower rated corporate bonds seem to have held up better than those having higher quality bonds. A really unusual year.
    Don’t know anything about NVDA. TSLA has fallen about 25% this year. Breaks my heart.
  • tariff bluster from Trump is just that: a pretext
    It appears that the tariffs are simply meant to weaken Canada economically, as their economy is very dependent on exports.
    So...punish to what end? Well, when the White House Press Secretary was asked why Trump refers to the Prime Minister of Canada as "Governor", Karoline Leavitt said that Trump believes Canada would benefit from being the 51st state, and would then have no tariffs.
    Same for Greenland I suppose.
  • SPDR Bridgewater All Weather ETF (ALLW)
    Mitch, thanks for the 'heads up'.
    First thing I did when I saw your post was to visit their website, to check out how the fund has deployed capital..
    their website shows 181% allocated (?) I don't see any mention of how exactly they are managing that feat. Are they shorting cash? I've no idea. The website doesn't seem to say... Whoever set up their website should have that easily identifiable. I see too, its showing its price at a 0.45% premium as of 3/6 === which is not the last trading day. So its 'stale' info. An ETF's calling card is its webpage. This webpage seems to be a 'work inprogress.
    The ER is 0.85% It looks like their big stock, bond holdings are other SPDR ETFs.. which are ETFs any DIY'er can buy themselves without paying ALLW for the 0.85% management.
    Their fact sheet lays out the investment framework, which includes equities, nominal bonds, TIPs, commodities, and gold -- all in different admixtures, depending on what growth and inflation are doing.. Whether ALLW adds value is dependent on how well they react at inflection points in capital markets.
    Just my 'first take'. Maybe they will prove themselves over the ensuing months.
  • Gimme Credit - latest memo from Howard Marks
    In a sense that tactic of buying when others are fearful has worked for me as well. Dumpster fires and bathwater floods are great places to look for hidden gems rather than racing up the roads to the current sparkles in the eyes of the masses.
    I am no where near the abilities of Buffett, Marks or a host of others but my best returns have come from selections made during those times.

    +1
    I’ve spent hours listening to Howard Marks drone on about his philosophy of buying low and waiting (often for years) for those distressed assets to recover. A favorite of mine. I’d be much richer if I’d followed his advice and not let go of some bargain priced stocks, bonds or funds too early. It’s a tough act to follow. Requires the Biblical patience of Job. (I’m the dummy who let go of DKNG a couple years ago at around $12.50 after a two-year dalliance with the struggling stock.)
    Marks’ earned his reputation buying distressed debt (lower tier junk bonds), including debt of companies in bankruptcy. So the comments in the linked piece are with reference to that asset class. To his way of thinking this kind of dumpster-diving entails less risk than buying many other market-priced assets. But it only works if you are confident enough in your picks that you can hold for the long run. My point earlier: If you are a more diversified investor, don’t think buying some BB and lower credits is going to smooth out your ride or prove an easy path. Understand the risk you’re adding to your portfolio.
  • FHMIX

    IAV has concluded its multi-part series on the plethora of bond choices at vanguard; highly recommend to anyone w/subscription.
    regarding my discomfort with Baird due to their their penchant for charter schools, i ran across this for texas, where they invest.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/valere-public-schools-superintendent-salary-texas
    for some weird reason, i have run across similar corruption related stories in every state (5) that i have lived, which have stuck in my mind. charter school shenanigans seem to be under-reported at the national level, and i cringe at the effects of a vanished Dept.Of Education to funnel more money that way.
    this is not a knock on baird, but adds to the reasons i stay away with so many great but imperfect choices.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (03/07/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:19 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    01:22 Topics
    02:25 The End of a Historic Uptrend
    06:04 There Will Be Drawdowns
    11:04 A Sentiment Shift
    13:13 Diversification Is Back
    15:04 Nvidia: Earnings Soar, Stock Plummets
    18:45 A Growth Scare?
    22:00 Record Trade Deficit
    26:00 Falling Real-Time Inflation
    Video
    Blog
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought a handful of SPXS calls on today's pop higher to accompany my tiny stock position in this leveraged short SPX fund. Total at-risk: $450
    After this week's action, I don't trust this afternoon's modest rally heading into a weekend of continued tariffing, waffling, bloviating, and tweeting...
    (I have a good chunk of profits already locked in for 2025, so I can speculate a bit if I want)
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Private-equity wants a slice of your 401k and it’s counting on some help from Trump Administration. The wrappers being considered are OEFs, CITs, interval-funds (IFs; buy anytime, but redemptions are limited). The TDFs can invest 5-10% in alternatives including private-equity/credit, but most plans don’t even do that fearing possible troubles with ERISA. High fees are another problem that may attract class action lawsuits. To address illiquidity, some firms have partnered with liquidity-providers. The 401k plans with brokerage windows shift all risks to the plan participants, but then why not just buy private-equity/credit giants APO, KKR, BX, BLK, etc.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-401k-private-equity-62be9228?refsec=mutual-funds&mod=topics_mutual-funds
  • American Century Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872825/000087282525000023/acwmf03082025497.htm
    497 1 acwmf03082025497.htm 497
    American Century World Mutual Funds
    Summary Prospectus and Prospectus Supplement
    Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund
    newaci_logoblk.jpg
    Supplement dated March 8, 2025 n Summary Prospectus and Prospectus dated April 1, 2024
    The Board of Directors has approved a plan of liquidation for the Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund. Under the plan, the liquidation date of the fund will be May 29, 2025. The fund will be closed to all new accounts and all new investments, except reinvested distributions, as of the close of the New York Stock Exchange on May 23, 2025.
    To prepare for the closing and liquidation of the fund, the fund’s portfolio managers may increase the portion of assets held in cash and similar investments to pay expenses and meet redemption requests. In doing so, the portfolio managers may sell securities to increase cash and cash equivalents exposure up to 100% of the portfolio. As a result, the fund will not be pursuing its stated investment objectives. The fund will also adjust the valuation of fixed income securities in its portfolio from the mean of the bid/ask price to the bid price.
  • the state of play, every other day or so
    I think it appropriate to post this wise and thorough substantiated wrapup (which I assume most good progtards here read anyway) as it touches on so many economy areas; but lmk if not.
    https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/march-6-2025?r=tcpky&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
    HCR is one industrious force for good.
  • Market Concerns - are you hedging your portfolio, or is it business as usual?
    @hank We are trying to time the markets. At least I am.
    The toughest part of the game is parsing out your dry powder.
    The quip about “loading up the wagon” was made in jest of course!
    Not a market timer. Wish everyone good luck in that if that’s their game plan. I try to buy things that haven’t done particularly well lately relative to their asset class and sell if I think they’ve produced a decent return. Overall valuations do enter into the picture. I’d rather be at 45% equity instead of 38% today. Caution is in order. Not because of Trump’s erratic actions, but rather because valuations are still very rich (as David addresses in some detail in the March Observer).
  • Gimme Credit - latest memo from Howard Marks
    “Let’s say high yield bonds yield 8% and a Treasury note of the same maturity offers 5%, for a yield spread of 3%, or 300 basis points. Which is the better deal? It all depends on the likelihood of default. “
    Yes and No. It’s not as simple as Marks’ equation. It also depends on the role of credit inside your broader portfolio. That assumes you have a diversified portfolio with a reasonable sense of how it will behave under different market conditions. In ‘08 AAA bonds actually gained, helping offset losses across most risk assets. Had you held junk bonds in place of AAA they would only added to the pain. While they didn’t perform as badly as equities, they’d have offered little relief in offsetting portfolio losses.
    When things are going well as they have been (pretty much since 2009, baring a few hiccups), it’s easy to get carried away with returns. To wit - Buffett’s warning: ”When the tide goes out …”
    From Yahoo Finance - 2008 Returns
    PRHYX -24.46%
    Category Average -26.41%