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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • US consumers warned to brace for higher prices due to Trump’s tariffs
    @Edmond, your stoopidity is simply astounding.
    First, it's appropriate (for YOU) that you quoted REM to try to drive home your point, as it's a band named after Rapid Eye Movement, you know, a dream-state condition.
    LMFAO!
    That pretty much says it all. But here's more to the point(lessness) of your post...
    Let's just take chips, as I trust you've heard (?), they've been driving stock markets for about two years now, and what's holding back the market this year. So they are a great place to provide an example of what @rforno succinctly and accurately stated.
    Here's some comments on tariffs as they relate to that industry by somebody who has elevated his game beyond wild-eyed investment forum posts.
    TRY to understand what he says here. I know it's gonna be virtually impossible for you, but please, do at least TRY.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-tariffs-live-updates-businesses-warn-of-ripple-down-effects-from-tariffs-because-of-rising-costs.html
    Excerpt: (BOLD added):
    Trade uncertainty weighing on chip companies, says ‘Chip War’ author
    The semiconductor industry is particularly vulnerable to tariffs due to how globally integrated its supply chains are, according to Chris Miller, Tufts Fletcher Schooler professor and ‘Chip War’ author.
    Even if chips are assembled in the U.S., many of the components used are not manufactured in the U.S., Miller noted.
    The complexity of the supply chains makes devising a tariff policy around carve outs very, very difficult, which is why the industry is hoping there won’t be any changes at all — because they’ve been structured around the assumption that you can move goods back and forth across borders without this type of tariff uncertainty,” Miller told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

    That said, I'm going to stop reading your posts because I'm losing too many brain cells in doing so.
    Indeed. A man's got to know his limitations. Congrats on knowing yours.
  • With Trump’s Reprieve on Tariffs, Mexico, Still Wary, Breathes Easier
    "On Thursday morning, President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico spoke with President Trump, in a last-ditch attempt to avert the 25 percent tariffs that Mr. Trump imposed this week on her country’s exports, which would devastate its economy.
    For now, it appears to have worked.
    On social media, after the two leaders’ call, Mr. Trump announced that he would give Mexico another month. At least until April 2, he said, Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the main North American trade pact."
    NYT Article
  • M*: What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes
    Bless their hearts, they put this timely piece above the fold today: https://www.morningstar.com/economy/what-weve-learned-150-years-stock-market-crashes
    You'll be glad to know they eventually end:
    Still, even if you are looking down the barrel of the next Great Depression, history shows us that the market eventually recovers.
    But since the path to recovery is so uncertain, the best way to be prepared is by owning a well-diversified portfolio that fits your time horizon and risk tolerance. Investors who stay invested in the market in the long run will reap rewards that make the turmoil worthwhile.
    Sure sounds easy don't it?
  • Euro up vs US$; International Stocks Up
    In 2009, I paid $1.51 for a euro. Lately, it was $1.04. Right now, it's $1.08.
    The instability, confusion and lack of direction politically right now has a lot to do with the dollar's recent fall. Back in '09, we were in the midst of the GFC.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Threw in my cards on FLTR and SCHO--about 15% of my IRA--and took a piddly loss for peace of mind. Decided I don't want indexes, and I don't want to think about NAV spreads on ETfunds. That leaves me 38% cash. Bonds are now represented by MNHAX, CBRDX, CBLDX, BUBIX, and PRWCX at about 38% of holdings.
  • Valuation
    @shipwreckedandalone has cited part of David’s dissertation in the March Observer which went live late yesterday. :)
    Here’s the relevant passage: ”The US stock market has a giant problem. ‘Giant’ in the sense that investors have poured money so steadily and so long into a handful of leaders that their valuations are beginning to redefine ‘irrational.’ Jason Zweig notes, ‘Even after the stumble in tech stocks late last month, the Magnificent Seven traded this week at an average of 43.3 times what analysts expect them to earn over the next 12 months” (‘What You Should Do About the Stock Market’s Giant Problem,’ com, 2/7/25).”
    Ummm … I haven’t had trouble finding equity pockets that have held up well the past 3-6 months - even on the worst days. Don’t want to advise people what to buy, but I’d agree with David that foreign markets are less overvalued. Value stocks have turned up - at least for the time being. I’d add that some exposure to foreign currencies might be prudent. They stand to gain if U.S. interest rates fall and the dollar weakens. You can actually do that with some international / global / area specific equity funds if you check to make certain it isn’t hedged 100% back to the U.S. dollar.
    Longer duration bond funds worry me. However in the hands of a good equity or multi-asset manager (like David Giroux) bonds can even-out the ride. For those willing to take a bit of risk in fixed income, you can improve your return (and increase your potential losses) with CEFs that use leverage. M* does a decent job indicating the amount of leverage the fund uses along with the historical and current discount / premium to NAV. Do your homework before you jump. I’m currently using WEA, BWG, TEI. (With CEFs there is strength in numbers as they are very volatile.)
    I agree with comments in The Observer that short term fixed income is somewhat attractive at 4 - 4.5% That’s an area where I’m willing to “reach” a bit for yield (JAAA / VNLA) knowing full well the idea is riskier than just sitting in a money market fund. I can’t recall a lot of discussion about junk bonds in the commentary, but I’d be very cautious there, Tight spreads now suggest that the premium return paid by junk over investment grade bonds is very small by historical standards. There will be better days ahead to buy junk. All in all, a broadly diversified portfolio that side-steps the hottest sectors would seem a prudent choice if your time horizon is in the 5-10 year range. Of course, if you are 21 and socking $$ away for 50 years down the road you may want to throw caution to the wind.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    3/6 -
    In TradIRA - another nibble on FBTC (bitcoin). Opened small position in PBDC, on its recent pullback. Its price is still elevated relative to long-term trend, so further weakness may be possible. So am hedging my bets by establishing partial position at this time.
    In taxable acct: closed small losing position in XOM. Redeployed to my 'stapled market-neutral' combo: (QDSNX/REMIX/JMNAX). Added to winning position on ABEV (Brazilian beer), after performing more beer research in the bar last night.
    late-in-the-day trades ... In Trad-IRA, added new position (nibbled) SIVR (silver bullion ETF). Thesis: the gold/silver ratio is ~ 89..implying gold is expensive vs silver. And I like the chart. (up and to the right). In taxable account: closed profitable position in AMT, which I bought 5 weeks ago. It 'popped'. I'm not greedy; decided to ring the register and move on.
  • US consumers warned to brace for higher prices due to Trump’s tariffs
    Commentary: Trump’s tariffs open the door to crony capitalism
    Link
  • US consumers warned to brace for higher prices due to Trump’s tariffs
    @Edmond, your stoopidity is simply astounding.
    First, it's appropriate (for YOU) that you quoted REM to try to drive home your point, as it's a band named after Rapid Eye Movement, you know, a dream-state condition.
    LMFAO!
    That pretty much says it all. But here's more to the point(lessness) of your post...
    Let's just take chips, as I trust you've heard (?), they've been driving stock markets for about two years now, and what's holding back the market this year. So they are a great place to provide an example of what @rforno succinctly and accurately stated.
    Here's some comments on tariffs as they relate to that industry by somebody who has elevated his game beyond wild-eyed investment forum posts.
    TRY to understand what he says here. I know it's gonna be virtually impossible for you, but please, do at least TRY.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/06/trump-tariffs-live-updates-businesses-warn-of-ripple-down-effects-from-tariffs-because-of-rising-costs.html
    Excerpt: (BOLD added):
    Trade uncertainty weighing on chip companies, says ‘Chip War’ author
    The semiconductor industry is particularly vulnerable to tariffs due to how globally integrated its supply chains are, according to Chris Miller, Tufts Fletcher Schooler professor and ‘Chip War’ author.
    Even if chips are assembled in the U.S., many of the components used are not manufactured in the U.S., Miller noted.
    The complexity of the supply chains makes devising a tariff policy around carve outs very, very difficult, which is why the industry is hoping there won’t be any changes at all — because they’ve been structured around the assumption that you can move goods back and forth across borders without this type of tariff uncertainty,” Miller told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday.

    That said, I'm going to stop reading your posts because I'm losing too many brain cells in doing so.
  • AXS Market Neutral Fund (class I shares) will be liquidated
    I'd never heard of this fund (prior to your post).
    Looks like it is/was available on the Fidelity platform for a modest $5k minimum on taxable accounts. COGIX performed well in the 2022 bear -- earning a positive 10%. I presume what 'killed' the fund was that during the subsequent roaring bull of 2023-24, it earned about7.2% cumulatively during those 2 years.
    Roaring bulls can cause safe options to disappear.
  • AXS Market Neutral Fund (class I shares) will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1587982/000121390025020768/ea0233229-01_497.htm
    497 1 ea0233229-01_497.htm 497
    AXS Market Neutral Fund
    Class I Shares: (COGIX)
    A series of Investment Managers Series Trust II (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 5, 2025 to the currently effective
    Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”).
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has approved a Plan of Liquidation for the AXS Market Neutral Fund (the “Fund”). The Plan of Liquidation authorizes the termination, liquidation and dissolution of the Fund. In order to perform such liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to all new investment.
    The Fund will be liquidated on or about March 28, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”), and shareholders may redeem their shares until the Liquidation Date. Redemptions made on or after the date of this Supplement will not be subject to any redemption fee that would otherwise be applicable. On or promptly after the Liquidation Date, the Fund will make a liquidating distribution to its remaining shareholders equal to each shareholder’s proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund, in complete redemption and cancellation of the Fund’s shares held by the shareholder, and the Fund will be dissolved. Any liquidation proceeds paid to a shareholder should generally be treated as received in exchange for shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss depending on the shareholder’s tax basis. Shareholders (including but not limited to shareholders holding shares through tax-deferred accounts) should contact their tax advisers to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Under certain circumstances, liquidation proceeds may be subject to withholding taxes.
    In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, AXS Investments LLC, the Fund’s advisor, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation, such as by raising cash or making investments in other highly liquid assets. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with its stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
    Please contact the Fund at 1-833-AXS-ALTS (1-833-297-2587) if you have any questions or need assistance.
    Please file this Supplement with your records.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/5/25
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 3/5/25
    BEARISH remained the top sentiment (57.1%, very high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (19.3%, very low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (23.6%, low); Bull-Bear Spread was -37.8% (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, budget, debt, inflation, Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (158+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+ weeks; cease fire). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds flat, oil down, gold flat, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 43.22% (negative). Market volatility is higher due to tariff announcements & changes. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1900/thread
  • Today’s Market Recap
    @Edmond
    ...And remind me, how did the market finish the day after the speech?
    I'll take the bait...
    Here's your requested reminder about yesterday:
    Dow closes nearly 500 points higher, S&P 500 surges over 1% on hopes for Trump tariff concessions
    [NOTE: The convicted felon's speech Tuesday night did nothing to calm the markets, it was his Canada concession (sic) Wednesday and hopes for more (hints at sanity) that caused the temporary rebound.]
    And here's your wake up call for today:
    Dow futures drop more than 400 points as Wall Street volatility continues
    Overall, since The Orange Turd (TOT) was elected, US markets are UP about a point. After today, it'll be more like Pick 'Em. So ZERO US market growth since Election Day.
    BTW, your cult leader aspires to be as great as a (rare) prior tariff lover, McKinley. Given TOT's vast knowledge of American history, I trust he knows how that all worked out for him?
    So what's your f*cking point now again, bub? And more broadly, who really "needs help"?
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    Very fine people on both sides. No,,, not talking about Charlottesville. And it’s not true in The great American divide of 2025. Once upon a time you could find fine people in both sides. Today,, in America,, we have two sides,,, those who stand for democracy,,,the rule of law and the constitution and those who stand for maga. We have some maghats here and they are blind in their obedience to the orange king.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    NOAA's specialized workforce provides products and services that support more than a third of the nation's GDP. But in MAGA narrative, our country will be "saved" by cutting 50% of the 12,000 NOAA workers. Approx. $600M per year in Comp savings....in the scheme of things, a veritable drop in the bucket. The NOAA's wind and storm forecasts save BILLIONS more.
    But MAGA somehow KNOWS that these jobs were UNNECESSARY, and Musk and his axe crew are always VERY CONSIDERATE in understanding how the agency works and what the CONSEQUENCES would be. Smartest guys in the room.
    OR....MAGA needs to blindly cut trillions of dollars to justify tax cuts that will benefit mainly the wealthy.
    MAGA loyalists - they cant see the forest for the trees. This is why the poor stay poor. Bad decisions and failure to consider the bigger picture.
  • Trump says Mexico and Canada tariffs to take effect– Wall Street closes sharply lower
    ran across this post on tariffs and business uncertainty; so simple AND brief that even some MAGA may be able to grok it.
    https://brianlangis.wordpress.com/2025/03/04/on-tariffs/
    we all know capitalism is extremely adaptable, and the shortest path to a shot at certainty is to join the corruption.
    Make America 3rd-world Again
  • Trump Administration Disbands Two Committees Advising on Economic Stats
    Following are lightly edited excerpts from a current report in The Wall Street Journal:
    Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick disbanded one committee, saying its mission ‘has been fulfilled’
    The Trump administration has disbanded two expert committees that advised the government on producing accurate economic statistics. Members of one group, the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC), were told Tuesday that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick disbanded the committee last week because its mission “has been fulfilled,” in an email seen by The Wall Street Journal.
    The Commerce Department also terminated a second expert group, the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee, which consulted on a separate group of economic stats. Both committees’ websites say that coming meetings have been canceled.
    A FESAC committee member, economist Erica Groshen, said the group played a critical role in guiding the offices that track U.S. inflation, employment and economic growth. “Its work goes to the essential transparency of these statistical agencies,” Groshen said. “When you remove that transparency, then that diminishes trust.”
    FFESACesac guided government statistics for 25 years. High-profile academic economists including Daron Acemoglu, John Taylor and the late Alan Krueger served as some of its past members. Current members included academic economists, think-tank researchers and executives from Wall Street and corporations.
    The committees’ dismantling comes at a challenging moment for the government statistics agencies, which have faced tight budgets and falling response rates to surveys that are essential gauges of the health of the economy.
    The move also follows a suggestion from Lutnick over the weekend that the government could change how it calculates the size of the economy by separating government spending, which would be a sharp departure from academic theory and international norms.
    FESAC met twice a year to advise government statisticians and economists on how to improve and refine their surveys and calculations. Members weren’t paid for their work. Members who chose to attend meetings in person could be compensated for travel expenses.
    Groshen, who was previously head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said FESAC had an especially important role advising on statistics that combine the work of multiple government agencies. That includes the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, which melds analysis from both the Labor Department and the Commerce Department.
    “These advisory committees are really essential to maintaining the quality of the data going forward,” she said.
    Comment: A couple of more guardrails against gaming the system removed.
  • Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy.
    @Edmond … in response to your points
    1. Scientists around the globe are concerned about climate change. It is not a conspiracy, but based on analyses of facts and measurements. I spent much of my career in air quality. I have personally observed and measured how small concentrations of air pollution can affect the environment and people’s health. Much of the opposition to climate change is funded by fossil fuel companies with vested interests in maintaining the status quo.
    2. This is true but context is important. Where I live, conservatives have consistently opposed land use controls to limit development in floodplains, coastal areas. Trump is also cutting funds for the US Forest Service and FEMA. National forests are located all over the US, not just California. I believe we will be experiencing more wildfires in many areas outside the West. Several years ago, we had an exceptionally dry year in North Carolina, and wildfires were occurring across the state.
    3. Many areas flooded by hurricanes in North Carolina were well outside floodplains, even 500-year zones. This was true in hurricanes Fran, Floyd, Matthew, Helene and others.
    Tar, I respect your opinion. Moreover, I respect your civil discourse. A rarity for some reason on MFO these days, where most threads are begun by parties who wish to turn this place into a political board.
    1. I did not use the term 'conspiracy'. Do fossil fuel companies use lobbying to further their interests? Sure. Is the use of money to influence outcomes in the climate issue unique to one side? I doubt it. I suspect money is a corrupting issue on both sides. (and on most issues). I simply do not believe the science outcomes are pure as the driven snow.
    2. Human lifetimes are short. I doubt any of us, from our personal experience has a large enough data set to infer larger truths from our anecdotal experiences. In 2021 the entire state of TX suffered a severe month-long freeze. Worse than anything in my lifetime. Do I infer a new Ice Age is at hand? No. It was a one-off.
    3 By definition then, perhaps the human-defined "flood plain" was not accurately understood. Human knowledge in all realms of science is incomplete and imperfect. We know more today than we did 200 years ago. Our understanding in 200 years will be more accurate still. We don't 'know it all' now. We should acknowledge the shortcomings of our knowledge. There is no sin to admitting we don't know it all.
  • Today’s Market Recap
    For those interested in saving time about Trump Tariff updates, here is a source -
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/05/trump-tariffs-live-updates-china-says-its-ready-to-fight-any-type-of-war-us-wants-till-the-end.html
    Do not worry about how the weblink reads; it is not a single story link.
  • SPX ETFs' distribution Breakdown Qualified and Ordinary
    M* looks at structural differences between SPY (UIT) and VOO. SSGA later introduced SPLG that is similar to VOO and IVV in structure.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/spy-vs-voo-which-sp-500-etf-should-you-own