12 September, '25. Scarlet Fu once again.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-09-12/real-yield-9-12-2025-video
I'm with Sonal Desai: the Fed should NOT cut, yet. But I expect it's going to happen.
Mark Cabana: the market is underpricing how much the Fed will cut through this cycle. (Huh?)
Inflation-risk is being underpriced. Treasury yields are near 2025 lows.
Credit volatility is at the lowest since February. I.G. largest issuance this week: Wells. Elevance health. Hewlett Packard. Capital One. REPSOL???
Junk: 3rd consecutive week in which there's over $9B in supply created.
Amanda Lynam. Whoa! 71% of Junk issuance this year has been for refinancing or debt repayment. Favorable technicals on supply AND demand side. Demand from yield is robust.
Junk: 6 weeks of gains, as yields plunge. But Triple Cs are not doing as well as the rest.
Wayne Dahl of Oaktree is in on the conversation.
Should we just avoid the junkiest Junk? CCCs? Lynam: CCCs are selectively OK. So, get granular in your due diligence and you can find some CCC "winners." She redefined Private Credit on-air, saying they've expanded so that they are reaching some higher quality borrowers... It's not like it used to be.

If you check the supplement dated February 28, 2025 page two it says effective March 14 all 2% redemption fees are removed on the 2 funds in question above. Time for another posting hiatus.

Dr venture:
I started preparing for rate cuts in 2023
FD: looks to me, you missed performance. SPY, the easiest most common index, aka, the market, made over 77% during 2003-5.
https://schrts.co/wUfkzfTU

I started preparing for rate cuts in 2023, once it appeared that rates were close to peaking. Also, taking advantage of those higher rates to make some fairly risk-free money in MMF, ultrashort and short term bonds, and some MS bond funds. These low-risk positions enabled me to take more risk in equities, while staying frosty. For 2025, our Roth up 15% YTD. TIRA up 14.2% YTD. Our 401k (60/40) is up 10.5% YTD. Our "general" taxable account is up 11.4%, this being where all of our MMF and ultrashort reside. Stocks, such as CEG (+43%), KLG (+41%), JNJ (+26%) and a host of mutual funds with 14-16% gain have really propped this last category up.
I believe that bond-like assets are set to do quite well as rates decline. Equities may also benefit from rate cuts, unless inflation weakens the golden goose (consumer), through higher prices, and/or job losses destroy consumer confidence and spending momentum. I also believe that tariffs have consequences, that may yet to be felt. So, watching equities closely here. I am shifting more cash to areas that may benefit from rate declines, as well.
Currently, 58% equity, 22% bond(ish) FI, and 20% MMF/ultrashort bond/cash subs. While politics should not impact your choices, the impact of politics absolutely should be taken into consideration. Rates, tariffs, trade initiatives, deficit spending, national debt are all economic examples of politics that impact markets. Not to be ignored.
I am pretty sure that Pimco CEFs are going to shine in the next 6-12 months. Maybe outshining stocks. Nor do I care about their performance during less favorable periods, only what they can do for me at this time. When that changes, so will my allocations. I am weighing whether to sell more equities to beef up bond fund positions.

Holding this stock since a spinoff from some ATT that I have owned, as compensation, since the late 1970s. M* has a FMV of $20 on it, and the position was not exactly huge, so I held on, despite the irritation of watching it flounder. With a 1-yr return of 142%, I feel so much better.
the ATT stock came from employment with Illinois Bell Telephone after high school, working for money to fund college. It become Ameritech, and then SBC, then ATT again. It spun off NCR, Agere, Lucent, Avaya and the other RBOCs. I never sold the original issuance. Approximately $600 of stock at issuance, is now worth $45,000 in T, plus the WBD and other spinoffs, that I previously sold. Including the WBD, it is now valued at over $50K.
What a ride!

APDPX and its more risky emerging markets counterpart, APDOX are good funds, but those who trade funds frequently may not like the 2% redemption fee for shares redeemed within 90 days or less.

I know the Artisan High Yield fund has such a fee but can’t find it on the funds above. I checked the prospectus and it specifically says no redemption fees as does Schwab and Fidelity. I ask because I have a small holding in APDPX. I am close to 90 days but don’t want any 2% surprise if the world comes to the end in the next couple weeks. I checked before buying but if you have more pertinent info please advise,
https://artisan.onlineprospectus.net/Artisan/s000075102/index.php?open=globalunconstrained!5fsum.pdf&scr=mob2VXQKOIQ7D
I also hold ARTZX and sold a portion off recently (dumb me) and didn’t get hit with a redemption fee

@fred495 Do you own APDPX & other than a fee to purchase what's not to like?

Yes, and it's also a nice diversifier in my portfolio.

One last thing.
PV also has option to not reinvest the distributions.
While tax rate is not typically 100%, think (unsure) you could look at the difference in terminal values in the two portfolios without dividend reinvestment (i.e., 100% tax), and close the gap between the two by 2/3 or 1/2, depending upon if - for example - your tax rate was roughly equivalent to 33% (1/3) or 50% (1/2).
This might ballpark the tax impact,, etc. of the mutual fund structure vs the ETFs.

APDPX has been on my best list of funds for months, but not for DT.
In April it was down 1.8%. In 2024 HOSIX goes up extremely nicely from left to right, while APDPX goes down
Since 01/2022: HOSIX made 32+% APDPX 35+%
But HOSIX SD is at 1.3% vs 2.6%
HOSIX has the best Sharpe > 3 of all the funds at Fidelity.
The 30 day yield of HOSIX=6.6...DHEAX=5.5%...SEMIX=6.2...SCFZX=5.4%.
We are not in a low-rate environment. 2025-6 would still be higher than years ago and if rates go lower, these funds would probably make 4.5%
My cloudy crystal ball says that the first 3 will make 5-6% in 2025...and 4-6% in 2026. See YTD chart (https://schrts.co/gGdZWGIt)
The idea is to get at least 4.5-5% in 2026 at the lowest SD possible.
But Schwab MMs still pay over 4%. Why would DT take a risk for another 1%? That's not for me to answer.
The future is unknown.
If you want to beat MM by a bit, go for RPHIX; see YTD (https://schrts.co/pmVkkFJw)
In the last 5 years, max loss for RPHIX was about -0.3%.
See a 3 year chart (https://schrts.co/VzvsMKJB).
Disclaimer: I don't currently own any of the above.

Portfolio Visualizer ("PV") has option to display distributions from the various back-tested portfolios.
Per PV...
On an initial $10,000 investment for the common time interval, looks like FPACX has distributed total $1,684 (or about 17% of the initial investment.)
On an initial $10,000 investment for the common time interval, looks like the FPAG/BINC blend has only distributed total $652 (or about 7% of the initial investment.)
If the alternative portfolios were held in a taxable account, looks like FPACX would be much less tax efficient than the ETF blend, and that this could/might "tip" the decision in favor of the ETF blend, even if the returns (before tax) were otherwise similar.

@fred495 Do you own APDPX & other than a fee to purchase what's not to like?

I don't interpret it as having trouble, but the funds are in "quiet period" with SEC so they are getting everything in order before the funds start to being offered. It appears the opening date has been moved from August 11 to September 10. Look at how long the T Rowe Price Capital Appreciation and Income Fund was announced back in 2017/2018 only to open a year or two ago.

They are delaying till October 1st now.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312525197907/d50711d485bxt.htm
If they are not having problems raising the money, any insights into what "getting everything in order" might involve that would require extra ~ 2 months? I certainly would not want this to drag out as long as the ~ 5 years it apparently took PRCFX...

Prepare for rate cuts?
.....Everyone and his uncle expects a 0.25% cut by the FED next week. The banks and businesses will rejoice, probably way too much. Already today, Thursday, Mr. Market was partying "like it's 1999."
LOUD start.

...Allegedly because the latest inflation statistics did not figure to change the overall orientation. So, the cut is indeed still in the cards.
Prepare? I'm sitting tight. A quarter of a point will not move the needle for me. Quite a nice bump-up today, but it's just one day. Even so, it's been a better year in the portfolio than I'd have expected, given the political turmoil. but as ever, Mr. Market ignores politics... until he can't, any longer. Then the spam will already be hitting the fan.
52.22% stocks.
46.76% bonds. (27.75% Junk, 18.6% core US bonds. Tiny slivers of TIPS and Developed country bonds.)
Single stocks: BLX, FBP, ET.
Funds: BALFX, PRWCX, PRCFX, TUHYX, PRCPX.
*Junk bonds.

@dtconroe. I believe your goal is 4% to 6%. Many would tell you to venture into emerging market debt which has shined the past many years and their yields haven’t been dropping drastically - think EIDOX and AGEYX which I hold. But definitely not for those who are risk averse and definitely not for you. To be honest 4% to 6% with little to no risk in a much lower rate environment is pie in the sky thinking. Best of luck with whatever you decide.

However, along those lines, I would recommend you check out APDPX.
For the period from April 2022 to August 2025, Portfolio Visualizer reports an annual return (CAGR) of 9.35%, and:
SD = 2.65%
Sharpe = 1.81
Sortino = 3.94
Max. Draw down = -1.42%
No guarantees, of course, but what's not to like? So far, so good.
Good luck, dt.

Added a new position, CARY (Angel Oak Income ETF)...currently a 5.73% distribution with a clear MBS focus.

65% FPAG / 35% BINC?
Fairly similar, FWIW.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=3swyJ96bDWKq3uq1wk4T0x

someone in a podcast somewhere talked about the machination of creating an ETF and absolutely how much easier it is to do than a mutual fund. but they said that starting a ETF is expensive so unless something has changed, these things have to recoup so much before they just shut em down.
on a other discussion board a product called XOUT grew in popularity. they had a screeen that would remove 10-20% of the SP500. Basically their screen would rule out the worst 20%. people were discussing their methodology and how it was dumb or right but overwelmingly people were positive on the product. it lasted 2 years before getting shut down. #1. nobody put money into it and #2 it performed HORRIBLY.

After reading the Beyond Vanilla bond article I thought I'd have another look at River Park Strategic Income. It cannot be found on the River Park website. I found 5 equity funds and 2 fixed income funds but Strategic Income is not among them.