Hundreds fired at NOAA, Weather Service. Here’s what that means for Americans and economy. Another 'if you don't agree with me, you are (dumb) or (dogmatic). Well, at least there was no accusation of being a Russian bot...
1. A lot of science is funded by govt. Scientists are quite good at math, and understand if they do not provide the desired conclusion -- that being "Omigod, its Global Warming" their future fundings may be cut off. Scientists are human. They have families to raise. They want the gravy train to continue, and know what they need to do, to keep the funding coming. Simple, human motivations.
2. In the past 40 years, a large plurality of new homes/condos have been built very close to the coasts. Commercial developments follow the people. If you put a lot more structures on the coast, you are going to get more hurricane damage. In the arid western US, if the govts refuse to engage in forestry management, the fuel for the fires accumulate until a spark sets the unmanaged flora ablaze. CA is infamous for not engaging in sound forestry management. The Santa Anas blow every year. Bad govt policy is what drove the scale of the disaster.
3. If neighborhoods are allowed to build on a flood plain, they should expect to, well, get flooded. NOLA, famously, is below sea level. And we are shocked that occasionally NOLA gets hit?
The simple expansion of human settlements/cities/exurbsover the past 50 years assures that there will be more incidents of natural disasters. That is simple probability.
Do billions in losses from natural disasters effect the economy? Of course they do. It creates GDP, as incremental spending occurs to rebuild. -- One reason why GDP is a lousy measure of how a country is doing, economically.
Certainly, if NOAA is meritorious, George Soros, Jeremy Grantham and Bill Gates are welcome to fund it with their private donations.
A good year to date for many bond funds.
A good year to date for many bond funds. I like writing. Amazon recently invited me to become a “Vine” reviewer. You get items (to keep) for free in exchange for “your honest unbiased review.”
But wait! They report every item as income based on its normal retail price to the IRS. So, if you received a “free” $1,000 TV set, in my tax bracket you would owe 22% to the Feds and around 4.25% to my state. - $260 + in income taxes alone for a single item. (That doesn’t even take into account the 6% state sales tax you’d pay.) Stories are legion online of unfortunate participants who either did not know the rules or thought they could skate by without reporting. One reported receiving a $20,000 + tax bill from the IRS 3 years after becoming a participant. For me, it’s a no brainer. Not interested. I have some other beefs about how I’ve been treated by Amazon in the past which I won’t get into here. But the coward at the WP practices the same editorial discretion in placement of reviews.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. If you ever want to know how volatile CEFs are, try putting a bunch together (in roughly equal amounts) on a pie chart and watching them jump around. Swapped out a couple from my collection of 7 today, adding TEI (EM credits) from Templeton and LGI (total global return) from Lazard. The remainder of the lineup: JEQ, CPZ, BWG, WEA, GGN. Together they comprise 17.5% of portfolio. Should be interesting.
(All inside a Roth IRA)
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. In IRA, re-opened small position on 3/5/25 in CTA - this is a managed-futures ETF.
Thesis: Like most investors, I have oodles of bonds & stocks. But I am under-exposed to commodities. IMO the managed-futures space is a lower-volatility means to access commodity prices. To my mind, CTA compares favorably vs OEF mgd-futures funds in terms of volatility/returns..
Other 'nibbles' during the past 2 days:
a)In Roth - Added QQQI & BITO (bitcoin futures/option income ETF).
b) In Trad-IRA added to FBTC (bitcoin), GQGPX (EM), and new position in FSCO (private credit CEF). FSCO has a history of lessened volatility and divd increases. Also added to my home-made 'stapled market-neutral fund' combining QDSNX/REMIX/JMNAX.
c. In taxable account: adding to MSFT and QQQ position. Opened small position in DFAT (DFA s/c value ETF).
edit: in taxable account, added to 'ABEV'- Brazilian beer company. Buying simply on techicals -- most EM sold off hard at year-end, many are in the process of 'springing back' to their trendlines. Beer is a pretty stable business. I've done plenty of 'research' on beer.
Today’s Market Recap
US consumers warned to brace for higher prices due to Trump’s tariffs
Today’s Market Recap Foreign assets spiked about the time the U.S. markets began the late day sell off. There were unconfirmed reports the Fed was eyeing more rate cuts than earlier proposed (5 thru year end I think). That would weaken the dollar, but might serve to push up U.S. equities. This is beginning to make some sense.
Today’s Market Recap The S&P 500 was within 4 points or so of the 200 day simple moving average when it reversed.
Back-handed blessing? HK firm sells port facilities at Panama Canal to BlackRock. (news link.) The $22+B is for the 45 ports in 25 countries. Panama ports happen to be part of the portfolio BLK affiliates bought. A deal like this takes months to agree on, including on the ground extensive due diligence. I think it is a great deal for CK Hutchinson.
More likely Larry Fink is having a sense of mortality. My guess is BX passed up the deal or it was never brought to it. They tend to do go after more high margin projects than BLK does.
Back-handed blessing? HK firm sells port facilities at Panama Canal to BlackRock. (news link.)
Trump says US will impose tariffs on overseas agricultural goods within weeks This country does want illegal immigrants - if they can pay them at 50% off, deny them any and all benefits and if they'll do the work no natural born citizen will do. Hell, they're crying for them as we speak. They also like rich ones apparently but mostly only from certain countries with the right colors and religious beliefs. Forget all that "bring me your tired and poor" nonsense we used to treasure. Our doors now are being watched by massive idiots and backwards values.
American businesses reel as Trump tariffs start to bite
Back-handed blessing? HK firm sells port facilities at Panama Canal to BlackRock. (news link.)
Trump says Mexico and Canada tariffs to take effect– Wall Street closes sharply lower
Today’s Market Recap Thanks guys. Good humor.
Here’s a few snippets characterizing the day’s trading -
Barron’s: “The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday, but some midday dip buying cut into the worst of the day’s declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 670 points, or 1.6%. The S&P
500 was down 1.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4%. The Dow was down more than 800 points at its low, while the Nasdaq was down 2.1%.”
The WSJ: “
Trump's Tariffs Spark Retaliation, Whipsawing Markets”
Reuters News:
”Investors say it's time to take Trump seriously as markets recoil.” Bloomberg:
”Day One of Trump's Trade War Delivers Wild Ride for Wall Street”Bill Fleckenstein (
Fleckenstein Capital .com):
“Wild Volatility Continues to Rule”
What was the news around 2:20 PM Central Eastern when the trapdoor opened?
I’m not aware of any particular news. Markets seemed to claw back much of the day’s losses around 2:00. As you say, trap door opened. But the real carnage must have been in the last hour ISTM.
I can’t recall this kind of volatility before. But, no doubt it has occurred.
”Recession Watch” I’d say. You can’t throw up 2
5% taxes everywhere (tariffs) and not brake the economy.
** brake as in “rapidly decelerate”
American businesses reel as Trump tariffs start to bite Following are edited excerpts from
a current report in The Washington Post:
China imposed tariffs of up to 15 percent on a raft of U.S. farm products and blacklisted more than 20 U.S. companies, marking a major escalation in a brewing battle between the world’s two largest economies. The move targets some of the United States’ most important exports to China, including soybeans, meat and grains. China is the largest market for American farm products, accounting for 17 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
China last year imported almost $20 billion in soybeans, corn, cotton and the other U.S. farm products that will be subject to the new tariffs, according to USDA data. Those products accounted for about 80 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to China.
By late afternoon, futures tied to wheat and corn had shed about 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
The tariff news sent the U.S. major indexes reeling for a second day in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 670 points, or more than 1.5 percent, to close at 42,520.99. The S&P 500 shed 1.2 percent to settle at 5,778.15, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dipped more than 0.3 percent to end at 18,285.16.
The new U.S. measures will result in levies as high as 45 percent on some Chinese goods that were already targeted during Trump’s first term, including home appliances, electronics, clothing and machinery.
Best Buy shares tumbled 13.3 percent after its chief executive said the Trump levies made price increases “highly likely” for Americans. Other consumer goods companies also slumped, including Wayfair and Whirlpool, which fell 8.1 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively. VF Corp., which lists Vans and Timberland among its labels, slumped 7.4 percent.
In other news, Investopedia is reporting that Tesla shares fell Tuesday, with the stock losing about a third of its value since the start of 202
5.
