Is there any Portfolio Visualizer PV Public Forum anywhere?
It requires Subscriptions after a free 14 days Trial Period.
Any Subscribers & expert users here?
as I've seen many PV Links here on MFO.
Basically, I'm Interested in Investing or creating a Portfolio NTF type of Mutual Funds or ETF.
Discussing...further analysis & Using PV for Retiree Portfolio Design & Try It Out.
Optimizing techniques or Lowering Drawdown MDD% or Retiree's withdrawal % in RMD, Inflation.
Please post a link if any forum exists?
Can it be worthwhile or add Value & additional help for Technical analysis going forward in 2022?
...as we can Not buy any Past Performances...
Thanks in advance.
Majick

Fed fund futures market expectations now are +0.25% hikes in successive FOMC mtgs in March, May, June. Then skip hike in July, another hike (4th) in September, skip hike in November and another hike (5th) in December. This leads to a speculation that one of those early hikes (any of March, May, June but more likely March) could be +0.50%. Things can change - the fed fund futures can change; Powell can flip-flip (after all, he has done it several times (4?) already, and on rates in Fall 2019, well before anyone had heard of Covid-19).
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

So what does Bullard want-a 100 basis point hike?

+1

+1

If an investor does a tax-free conversion of one share class of a fund into another share class, e.g. investor class to admiral class, there are no tax consequences.
But if an investor sells one fund and buys another, even if the second fund is a clone of the first, two taxable things happen:
1) If this is a taxable account, the investor may recognize gain on the sale, and
2) The old fund may have to sell assets to satisfy the redemption, and in the process generate cap gains that may be distributed to the remaining (old) fund shareholders.
That's what happened here. The employer plans were not exchanging share classes in the same fund, but were literally selling shares of one fund and buying shares in a virtually identical but separate fund.
---
The simple response to your second observation is yes, that's generally correct. The complete answer is a bit more complicated.
Any fund, whether active or passive, ETF or open ended, can alter its portfolio holdings in a couple of ways:
1. Sell the old holdings, buy new ones. This could generate cap gains if the old holdings have appreciated.
2. (a) When investors want to redeem shares, instead of handing them money, hand them back the old holdings that the fund wants to get rid of. Yes, even OEFs in theory (but rarely in practice) can do redemptions in kind (see link below). For an ETF, the bundle of holdings that the investor receives is called a "redemption basket".
https://www.dodgeandcox.com/redemption_disclosure.asp (D&C redemption baskets)
(b) When investors want to buy shares, rather than using cash the fund (ETF) requires the investor to hand over a bunch of new holdings. This bundle of holdings is called a "creation basket".
Usually the creation basket and the redemption basket are the same, but they don't have to be. This gives the funds the ability to tweak their holdings, handing off old holdings it doesn't want and taking in new holdings that it does want.
I doubt this is how a passive ETF would deal with a full index reconstitution, but I could envision it being used to replace a single security. So just because an ETF wants/needs to change its portfolio, it doesn't have to recognize gain on the old holding(s).
(From iShare IG Corp Bond ETF LQD's prospectus: "Creation and redemption baskets may differ ...")

Fed’s Bullard Doesn’t think a half point rate increase “really helps us” …
Interviewed February 1
(Excerpt) St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Tuesday said he favors lifting rates at the U.S. central bank's meeting in March and likely again in May, but he pushed back against the idea of kicking off the coming tightening cycle with a half-percentage point hike. "I don't think a 50-basis point hike really helps us right now," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters … </i1
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-bullard-does-not-think-half-point-rate-hike-really-helps-us-reuters-2022-02-01/

If you have specific questions about Invenomic, do let me know. Ali & co. have been pretty responsive in the past, going so far as meeting me for coffee and an interview in lovely Moline, Illinois. I'd happily raise your questions or ask the folks there to scan this thread (which they've been known to do).
I share, by the way, the concern over the fund's e.r. Part of the expense can be excused as "the inevitable cost of shorting securities," but the management fee is 1.74%. When I look at other five-star long-short equity funds, the equivalent numbers range from 1.20% (Alger) and 1.25% (Virtus KAR) to 1.50% (RiverPark) and 1.99% (Longboard). Again, that's management fee, not total e.r. but management fee is the thing most easily controlled by the advisor.
David

probably will be able to let things down easy
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&amp;emc=edit_pk_20220201&amp;instance_id=51861&amp;nl=paul-krugman&amp;productCode=PK&amp;regi_id=22268089&amp;segment_id=81324&amp;te=1&amp;uri=nyt://newsletter/292a92e4-f45d-5b58-9234-e4b0303326c2&amp;user_id=83d45440ead1d14c2a89a1e7221337d1

unusually high capital gains ... has ... drawn scrutiny from regulators
debate over whether target-date funds are suitable for taxable accounts
The high Vanguard distributions were the result of a technical change Vanguard made. It lowered the min for institutional funds, thus triggering a mass selloff by small company plans as they migrated from retail clones into the institutional funds.
Once one realizes this, the two statements above come off as a nonsequitor.
Suppose that instead of target date funds, Vanguard had lowered the min of VITPX from $100M to $5M. (For the sake of argument, assume VITNX, VSMPX, and VITSX did not exist.) One would expect to see a similar migration of small employer plans from the retail fund VTSAX to the institutional clone VITPX.
This in turn could trigger a large cap gain distribution to the remaining retail investors. VTSAX has unrealized cap gains amounting to about half of the fund assets, according to M*.
Surely one would not suggest that a total stock market fund was an inappropriate choice for a taxable account, just because a poorly planned change could could trigger a torrent of recognized cap gains.
This is a completely different question from whether target date funds are suitable for a taxable account.

Ummm ... we did write about it in our December issue.

Fed’s Harker Says 4 rate hikes appropriate this year.
(Excerpt) Right now, I think four 25 basis point increases this year is appropriate," Harker said during an interview with Bloomberg TV. "But there's a lot of risk here," including the risk that inflation is worse than expected, or that it eases faster than Fed officials expect, he said.
Here

And thanks to all of the folks who made it happen.
Quick intros to Devesh, msf and The Shadow in the publisher's letter, plus bits of ARKK Snark and perspective on January.
Snowball profiles Intrepid Income and updates the bang-for-the-buck capture ratio essay from February 2020
Devesh begins what promises to be a long conversation on managing inflation risk and msf takes on risk ... uhh, risk. Charles's look at funds that didn't draw down last year (remarkably few) and did have a positive return; David Sherman's name keeps coming up.
The Shadow casts his eye on industry developments and Lynn Bolin echoes the "don't let volatility scatter your wits" theme in his piece of analysis paralysis and portfolios.
Some old features are - manager changes, funds in reg, launch alerts - are either on hiatus or wrapped into other features. If you'd like to change that or revive them, you're more than welcome to join the crew!
Cheer the guys on, poke them as appropriate, and join the conversation if you can.
As ever,
David

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vanguard-bolsters-roster-of-external-advisors-with-addition-of-ariel-investments-301471513.html
From Vanguard:
https://pressroom.vanguard.com/news/Press-Release-VG-Bolsters-Roster-External-Advisors-Adds-Ariel-Investments-013122.html

+1.

Several past posts:
1) "MSF describes it—blend—a blue chip stock with its heady growth days in the past.
"Agree with msf and Lewis assessment. The fast growing business (iPhones, computers, music, and AppleTV) since Steve Jobs's returned has plateaued. In some area Apple is trailing."
2) "Growth is about revenues, cash flow and earnings versus the benchmark and industry peers and it’s forward looking, not from five or ten years ago."
FD: reality check. After another year. Apple proved it's not just another blue chip stock. It's even more amazing to do it when it's so big already.
Apple 2021 annual EPS was $5.61, a 71.04% increase from 2020. The price followed.

Hi sir the Pudd
Many folks say its oversold past 6 weeks...hard to say
Still got 15 yrs left and has time to make up...
I still buy Vang 2050 vpccx vgstx monthly basis.
If was retired probably all bonds Corp bonds TIPS and very little equities added. Mama portfolio very conservative down 5% last 6 wks

@Observant1 : Thank you for the link.
Part of the 1%, Derf

Even if the Fed raised rates to 2.00% by the end of the year, real rates will remain negative.

Yes.
Looks like they’re trying to talk some of the overheated markets down without having to really do much heavy lifting (raising rates quickly). I try to hedge my bets being up there in years. Still have a bit of exposure to longer dated investment grade bonds in the event the Fed pushes too hard and economy falls off a cliff. Not recommending that for anyone else. Just the way I tend to think about hedging risks.
Agree, bonds are not a good investment with inflation far above what they yield.

M* indicates that BIVIX has a net ER of 2.84% and an adjusted ER of 2.24%.
I personally wouldn't purchase a fund with an ER > ~1.25%.
Many alt funds are too expensive...