2022 better not turn out to be Death by 1,000 Cuts. Can't we just get a few big wash out days where equities are down -4% or -5% per session? That's the way to do it.
This correction is too orderly.

(Macaulay) duration is the time weighted sum of cash flow present values normalized by dividing by the bond price.

https://www.fincash.com/l/basic/macaulay-duration
What you were using was modified duration (or effective duration), i.e. sensitivity to interest rates:
TIPS have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates.
Modified duration is the derivative of present value (PV) with respect to rates (again, normalized by dividing by bond price, i.e. PV). That turns out to be Macaulay duration divided by (1+r) where r is the discount rate per coupon period.
This is easy to see. Start with the PV formula:

After dividing by the bond price, differentiating with respect to i (rate) gives:
{[(-1 x PMT1/(1+i)¹) + (-2 x PMT2 /(1+i)²) + ...)] / BondPrice} / (1 + i) =
- ( timeWeightedCashFlowPVs / BondPrice ) / (1+i)
- MacaulayDuration / (1 + i)
Related to, but not the same thing as Macaulay duration.
Still, that doesn't address your more significant assertion that TIPS' duration (whatever the form) is longer because cash isn't paid out until maturity. IOW, that TIPS are effectively zero coupon bonds.
With a traditional CD, interest compounds at a fixed rate. So calculating APY and YTM is easy. In fact, all that really matters (except for tax purposes) is the final value of that CD. You could call it a zero since you don't get the cash flows until maturity.
Still, there are interest payments; you can see it in the balance reported for your CD. The risk with fixed rate CDs (as with zero coupon bonds) is that interest rates may rise and you can't deposit those interest payments at the new higher rates.
If the bank did allow you to draw the interest payments and redeposit them at higher rates, that CD would be more valuable to you. It's not that you're literally getting your hands on the cash, it's that you're able to get current (higher) market rates on the interest as it is credited.
Same with TIPS. You don't get your hands on the inflation adjustments. But you see them in your balance (i.e. "principal amount"). And if inflation rates go up, that new balance benefits from the higher rates.
In this regard, TIPS work even better than redepositing the CD interest or reinvesting bond coupon payments. With the CD or the fixed rate coupon bond, only the interest payments receive higher rates going forward. With the TIPS, the original principal (as well as the inflation "adjustments") receive the benefit of higher rates.
With respect to inflation, TIPS are floating rate bonds, and as such have zero duration.
I started with the statement: "The relationship between inflation adjusted (real) durations and nominal durations is somewhat complex." This may help (or further confuse):

Nominal bonds are generally considered to have one duration (the sensitivity of the bond's price to a change in its nominal yield or interest rate), but inflation-indexed bonds, such as Treasury Inflation-Indexed Securities (formerly, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS), may be regarded as having two durations: Di, the sensitivity of the bond's price to a change in inflation, and Dr, the sensitivity of the bond's price to a change in real interest rates.
For a nominal bond, whether a change in yield was caused by a change in inflation expectations or a change in the real interest rate does not matter; the effect on the bond's price is essentially the same either way. But for a TIPS bond, an increase in inflation does not affect the bond's price because the change in the cash flows in the numerator (of the equation for discounted cash flow analysis) is indexed to inflation and the discount rate in the denominator has also been increased by the same change in the expected inflation rate. Thus, the TIPS bond has an "inflation duration" of zero. A change in real interest rates, however, affects the price of a TIPS bond much as it does the price of a nominal bond, so a long-term TIPS bond has a long real-interest-rate duration—say, 15 years.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v60.n5.2656
That is why Vanguard moved to short term TIPS.

I just checked at M* the valuation of top 10 components of ARKK portfolio. Two companies are rated four stars (Twilio & Zoom), one company is rated five star (Teladoc), and one company is rated two stars (Tesla). All other companies are rated 3 stars. The higher the star rating the more undervalued a company is. Assuming M* valuation work can be relied upon and assuming the market pays attention to M* work, it appears ARKK may currently be in the range of fair value. But given market's mood always swings too far from the median, another 15% drop in ARKK from today's close price would put it at $64.50, which I think is a good entry point.

+1 Berlin Germany residents voted for expropriation of thousands of apartments owned by big developers, but that process hasn't been completed yet.

Except:
“Cincinnati government entity outbid more than a dozen investment firms to buy 194 homes in and around the city, a move meant to keep tenants in their homes and private investors out of their neighborhoods. The Port of Greater Cincinnati Development Authority agreed last month to pay $14.5 million for the properties scattered throughout Hamilton County, which includes Cincinnati. While continuing to operate them as rentals, the agency said it intends to upgrade and eventually sell the homes to their primarily low-to-middle-income tenants …
“The program is the most aggressive response yet by local officials looking to keep homes out of the hands of professional investors. Publicly traded companies, private-equity firms and thousands of smaller investors have been buying up single-family homes and renting them out, usually to people who can’t afford the steep down payments. Laura Brunner, CEO of the Port of Greater Cincinnati Development Authority, worries that a rental-industry ‘feeding frenzy’could lock families out of homeownership. Investors now account for about 18% of all U.S. home sales, up from about 8% in 2009 …”
The Wall Street Journal - January 19, 2022
Story By: Konrad Putzier and Will Parker

Well I was at the gym today but didn’t see nobody naked. Got the ol ticker up to 120 BPM on a treadmill and it didn’t break. Thanks for sharing Catch.
Henry David Thoreau - “Time is but the stream I go a fishing in.”

@hank
IG bonds today and IG bond futures at this time have assumed a more normal relationship to equity weakness. Some relief in the bond sell down is in place at this time (Jan. 20, 10:30 pm, EST).

Hi @Old_Joe
Heard part of a short blip today about ASML also having problems obtaining parts/product for their factory in Berlin, after the fire there, a few weeks ago. Overall, I believe they remain well positioned in this tech. area.
ASML articles
Take care,
Catch

Following up on yogibearbull's post above, this video was referenced by that M*post:
It shows a zero visibility automated landing at the Milan International airport, and it's well worth a watch. At the beginning it seems as if there's no motion at all... be patient.

If you happened to be flying on this aircraft would you be concerned that the radio altimeters were working correctly?

European 5G frequencies 3.4-3.8 GHz
US 5G C-band frequencies (T, VZ) 3.70-3.98 GHz
T-Mobile 5G frequency (band 41) 2.5 GHz
Other frequencies are in use too, but the above are relevant for airplane instrumentations that have used 4+ GHz for decades. And only the US 5G C-band is near those, NOT T-Mobile 5G, nor European 5G.

Two years ago: I don't know where at this forum, but I too, noted Covid on Jan. 21, 2020. I still have pics in my phone from the John Hopkins site when they began posting global Covid data. Anyway, you may choose to read some of the posts in this thread.
NOTE: the MFO link below contains 3 sections. The link goes to page 3, and I can't adjust this fact. Click the number 1 (1,2,3; just to the top right of the text area ) to go to the beginning of the post.
From the original post:

I wrote on Jan. 21:
As to a "black swan" or what could also be named as an excuse to take some profits by the big market players; IS IF.......and likely a much to do about nothing, is the monitoring of the corona virus in China and other countries in the area.
If this virus were to become very wide spread and deadly; well, who knows, eh?
Market reports (of course) are already headlining that this virus could trigger a markets sell-off.
I can not disagree that if a global problem with any virus became serious enough; markets would be affected.
Of concern to the CDC, WHO and other health organizations at this time, is the beginning of the lunar new year period; which always involves escalated travel volumes by millions of Chinese, both domestic and foreign travel.

MFO February 2020
Remain curious,
Catch

Prof Damodaran's reaction to Cathie poking at the Value stocks -

@stayCalm -
Good luck. Let me know if you find the perfect hedge. I learned long ago that betting on both sides of a sports event (hoping you can get out of one position early) tends to be a loosing proposition. Mainly because there’s associated expenses (the casino’s “take”) on both sides, so you simply double your cost.
Holding any hedge is costly even if it works. You’re essentially betting on both sides as I understand it.
I started using DOG (100% inverse Dow) with some success back in October and noted it here. But the potential for loss seemed too great. So in November I started using TAIL (+.57% today). It only moves (inversely) about 50% of the major markets most days. However, historically it’s done much better after steep sell offs. I’m close to break even on the hold - probably out a few $$. Cost aside, it helps smooth out the daily value fluctuations. Hard to put a price on that. I like DRSK somewhat, but haven’t owned it.
If these were fuels:
DOG 100 octane
TAIL 85 octane
DRSK 60-70 octane
Keep in mind that higher octane is more potent on the downside as well as upside.
Haven’t looked at BEARX closely. But the 3% ER is a turn-off. Today it gained 1.25% which puts it about midway between the Dow and NASDAQ (on an inverse basis) - 100 octane.

TIPS have higher durations than Treasuries of comparable maturities, so they are hit worse from rising rates.
That seems a little odd. Do you have a source?
The relationship between inflation adjusted (real) durations and nominal durations is somewhat complex. To simplify matters, we can assume the Fisher hypothesis holds literally:

The Fisher hypothesis, which states that nominal interest rates rise point-for-point with expected inflation, leaving the real rate unaffected, is one of the cornerstones of neoclassical monetary theory.

Barsky, The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forcastability and Persistence of Inflation, Journal of Monetary Economics 19 (1987).
That is, real rates don't change; nominal rates change in lock step with inflation. If inflation goes up by 1%, nominal rates go up by 1%. The real rate doesn't change. Since TIPS adjust yield for inflation, their prices should change only as a result of changes in real rates, which by assumption are nonexistent. Thus zero duration.

[Laatsch and Klein] confirm that TIPS bonds have zero sensitivity to changes solely in expected inflation. By changes solely in expected inflation, we mean that the real rate remains unchanged and the nominal rate changes in accordance with the established Fisher [Publ. Am. Econ. Assoc. 11 (1896)] effect. [They] show that the first derivative of the TIPS price [i.e. duration] is zero whenever the real rate is held constant.

Laatch and Klein, The Nominal Duration of TIPS Bonds, Review of Financial Economics Vol 14, Issue 1 (2005)
They go on to say that even relaxing the Fisher hypothesis (so that real rates change) "if expected inflation changes ... zero-coupon TIPS prices ... will change by a smaller percentage than will zero-coupon ordinary Treasury bonds."
Shorter duration for zero TIPS than for ordinary (nominal) zeros.
Here's PIMCO's "translation": TIPS should perform better in a rising interest rate environment than conventional Treasury bonds because their inflation adjustments provide better price protection, but only when rates are rising as a result of increasing inflation.
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/understanding-treasury-inflation-protected-securities

DODBX still leads, but it is now acting similar to others.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=DODBX&compare=BALFX,FBALX,FMSDX,JABAX&id=p15525362102

@BaluBalu - I did but I was in before the huge run up and out in May 2021. There were others. Although I agreed with her "disrupter" thesis it was strictly a momentum trade on my part. I still think the disrupter thesis has merit but valuations are nuts.

I tried to look through website and prospectus but the strategy was unclear - some combo of long Treasuries with options overlay.
Looking at its chart, it does have positive correlation with 10-yr Treasury yields, but looking at some hi-lo values, friction/drag is awfully high. If sinks very rapidly but bounces slowly. Soon after inception, rates fell 21 bps (only) and it collapsed; but now rates are higher than at inception, and it is well under the inception value. Looks like a bad deal.
Values 10-yr Yield
51.25 1.575%
38.46 1.354%
42.31 1.655%
37.38 1.550%
40.97 1.725%
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PFIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71742655630

PFIX's hedge is working great MTD due to interest rate concerns, but ugly performer otherwise. If you believe that interest rates are going to go zoom through the roof, then it could be a nice find for 2022.
Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX)
Year Month Return
2021 6 -15.30%
2021 7 -2.08%
2021 8 -1.94%
2021 9 2.28%
2021 10 -1.35%
2021 11 -1.50%
2021 12 -5.00%