Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • I'm Not Sure Wood at ARK ETF Knows What "Soul Searching" Really Is
    The ETF is down now 45% in the past 12 months and more than 50% off its peak price of $159.70 at $76.91 today.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    @Puddnhead, did you know it is Jerome "Curly" Howards birthday today. No Yuks... he would be 119.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me.
    What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link).
    So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
    Me, me, me. Some things never change do they?
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Let it go down, please. The more, the better...for me.
    What I find funny is when someone "knows" the reason why it went down. So many predictions by so many "experts" have been wrong(link).
    So why did stocks go down? The only true reason is because there are more sellers than buyers.
  • JP Morgan reorganizes some OEFs to ETFs
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1047712/000119312522010937/d293556d497.htm
    Affected:
    JPMorgan Inflation Managed Bond Fund
    JPMorgan Market Expansion Enhanced Index Fund
    JPMorgan Realty Income Fund
    JPMorgan International Research Enhanced Equity Fund
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    The selloff is from lofty levels. The “dippers” seem to be off-line again today. A few months ago I (teasingly) wagered one the Dow would dip to under 34,000 by end of 2021. I’d have lost that wager. But goes to show how high the markets remain.
    About a 1.5% dip today across most markets mid morning. Oil is very hot due to tensions in the Middle East and over Ukraine. Gold’s flat, but silver shot up. SLV was more than 2% higher last look. Bonds are getting the blame. 10 year was up to 1.85% last night. Suspect it will drop back by day’s end.
    I’m watching ARKK to see if its steep dive will level off before it crashes and burns. But it’s down more than the average market loss today. To some extent I think money has been rushing to perceived “safer” investments (ie from aggressive growth and tech to value and preferred stocks). Might be the right move. But it might also be akin to seeking safety on a sinking ship by climbing to the upper levels. :)
    For the literary minded, one of my favorite Hemingway passages:
    “Once in camp I put a log on a fire and it was full of ants. As it commenced to burn, the ants swarmed out and went first toward the center where the fire was; then turned back and ran toward the end. When there were enough on the end they fell off into the fire. Some got out, their bodies burnt and flattened, and went off not knowing where they were going. But most of them went toward the fire and then back toward the end and swarmed on the cool end and finally fell off into the fire. I remember thinking at the time that it was the end of the world and a splendid chance to be a messiah and lift the log off the fire and throw it out where the ants could get off onto the ground. But I did not do anything but throw a tin cup of water on the log, so that I would have the cup empty to put whiskey in before I added water to it. I think the cup of water on the burning log only steamed the ants.”
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    @BaluBalu
    I viewed the "red" again, too; late last evening and thought that it may not persist overnight...but.
    I'm placing the market links here again, versus keeping them only at the beginning of this post, for easier access.
    The slow market melt remains, eh? Our house remains U.S. markets and growth equity oriented. I surely don't know where the money is hiding, at this moment; but there remains too much "hot" money looking for a home, at this point, IMHO. As to how much of a sell down is needed to bring the money back into the equity markets, I don't know.......the magic 8 ball is still awaiting repair parts. I do review technical data as to 14 day relative strength to discover what areas are moving towards or are at a "30" reading, which attempts to indicate an oversold or buy area for whatever is being reviewed.
    Still watching.....
    The "red" remark is relative to the first set of data for global markets, as one scrolls down. The clock icon at the right edge indicates full open trading. One will also see the blinking of a line, as market numbers change.
    Global Futures and Active/Open Markets
    NOTE: I'll add FINVIZ, mixed markets.
    AND Global etf's, multi-sectors, active real time changes through a trading day.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Small-Cap Growth Indexes - Issues
    Issues related to small-cap growth indexes are discussed. These include the markets (SC-gr indexes lead only when the category leads) and there are wide variations among the SC-gr indexes (probably related to their selection criteria).
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1074886/why-indexing-small-growth-stocks-hasnt-worked
  • What's with junk bonds and preferred stocks?
    Thank you for confirming the data. Both financial and energy sectors are ahead of S&P 500 by several % so far this year. The short stock is labeled as hedged equities in D&C recent Shareholder Letter.
    the Fund holds a short S&P 500 futures position with a notional value of approximately 4.1% of the Fund’s total net assets.
    https://dodgeandcox.com/pdf/shareholder_reports/dc_balanced_letter.pdf
    D&C Stock fund is also ahead of the VG value index by several %.
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    Look, I wasn't trying to make any point other than I already hold a real estate fund. Period. RQI isn't for everyone anymore than CPREX is. Also I don't expect any one particular fund to repeat one year's performance anymore than I expect it to bounce around like a yoyo. Last year it worked, who knows what it will do this year. All I do usually is devote 5-10% of my portfolio to the real estate sector.
  • What's with junk bonds and preferred stocks?
    I too notice that DODBX is up while the balanced index is down, +3.2% vs -2.3%. Will see next week if that is a typo reported.
    It’s nuts. DODBX is heavy into banks which are benefitting from the spike in interest rates. Throw in an overweight in refiners (reported about 2 years ago) and add a 5% short on the S&P (reported within the last 12 months) and you get a 3+% start to the new year. There’s some kind of sorting-out process taking place in the markets. We’ll see where it all leads …
    Marty Zweig - “I’m nervous Lou. Very nervous.”
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    Too late for me. I moved into a real estate fund (RQI) over a year ago. Oh well.
    And RQI may do well this year as well, but certainly not at a 56% clip...sometimes leverage works in your favor.
    Here's a asset allocation heat map from Ben Carlson showing real estate at the top of the heap for 2021.
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Screenshot-2022-01-07-131143-1.png
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)

    Some clarification re the “favorably mentioned” funds I listed in the OP.
    All 8 funds were cited by Sonal Desai, CIO and portfolio manager Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. I should have noted that in the OP. Here’s the full text of her remarks re CPREX in the Barron’s article under discussion:
    Desai: “From a portfolio perspective, there are different ways to hedge against inflation. For that reason, I started moving toward real estate in the middle of last year. All of my picks are funds. First, I want to highlight a private real estate fund, Clarion Partners Real Estate Income fund [CPREX]. It is a Franklin Templeton fund. Clarion offers direct access to institutional-quality private real estate, with daily pricing. These are commercial real estate properties with the scale and balance-sheet quality that institutional investors demand. It's hard to come by such assets as a retail investor. The fund has direct investments in commercial real estate and real estate securities. It is backed by long-term real estate contracts and taxed as a real estate investment trust, which has investment benefits. The retail fund has been around only since 2019, but Clarion has a 30-year track record serving institutional clients. The portfolio's target allocation is 60% to 90% private real estate and 10% to 40% public real estate securities. It invests in warehouse, apartment, office, retail, and other property sectors.”
    As always, before investing read a fund’s prospectus, perform due diligence and make sure the fund is appropriate for you. (Also, note comments re CPREX made above by members.)
  • What's with junk bonds and preferred stocks?
    I think it’s just a strange period. A lot of things don’t make sense. My equity / balanced funds have been outperforming my multi-asset alternatives while the major stock indexes have been falling - a complete reversal of the norm. Alternatives generally loose less in falling markets.
    Alternatives:
    TMSRX -2% YTD
    ABRZX -1.86% YTD
    QED -1.84% YTD
    Equity & Bal.
    DODBX +3.16% YT
    FLJP +.50% YTD
    RPGAX -1.60% YTD
    Just an aberration I think. As the others may have noted, High Yield, Leveraged Loan, Floating Rate & Preferred are all more sensitive to credit risk and less sensitive to interest rate risk than are investment grade bonds. I own DODIX and am not worried about it. Sharp cookies there. Should be able to do better than cash over 3 year stints even in a mildly higher rate environment.
  • What's with junk bonds and preferred stocks?
    "Be aware that 60 day IRA transfers are restricted to one within a 365 day period, not within a calendar year. One could not, e.g. do a transfer 2/2/22 and then another on 1/12/23."
    Yes, it's a 365 (or 366) day wait. "One year period" more specifically. Many sites (even some IRS ones) get this wrong, and say 12 month period, which is different! Or even say "per year", which is ambiguous. The Bobrow v. Commissioner 2014 ruling says "1 year period" and the IRS says subsequent IRS publications will "reflect the Bobrow interpretation of § 408(d)(3)(B)." Publication 590 specifically states:
    "The 1-year period begins on the date you receive the IRA distribution, not on the date you roll it over into an IRA."
    Worse yet, different parts of USC and other state and local laws definine "1-year period" differently. But as far as the IRS is concerned, it's from MM-DD-YYYY to MM-DD-YYYY+1 plus a day just to make sure ;-)
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    And notable Ahlsten / Parnassus quote: “ Value has done well out of the gate, but growth stocks could come back strongly in the second half as the yield curve flattens. People will rediscover that they want to own innovative companies, not slow-growth, narrow-moat, old-economy companies. Areas like semiconductors could do really well. Semis are 60 basis points of the global economy but bring intrinsic value to the table. Hyperscaled software providers, and innovative companies in healthcare, life sciences, and life-science tools all could do well as the economy slows. The second half could be almost the mirror image of the first half. The S&P 500 could end the year up by mid- to high-single digits.”
    Black: “ I follow small- and mid-caps, as well. The small-cap Russell 2000 trades for 17 times forward earnings, but 39% of the companies in the index have no earnings. Thus, the Russell’s true P/E is about 28 times, as is the Nasdaq’s”
  • What's with junk bonds and preferred stocks?
    I do my one 60-day transfer a year
    Be aware that 60 day IRA transfers are restricted to one within a 365 day period, not within a calendar year. One could not, e.g. do a transfer 2/2/22 and then another on 1/12/23.
    https://www.irahelp.com/slottreport/what-year-means-when-it-comes-your-ira-rollover
  • A Glimpse into Barron’s Roundtable Part 1 (January 17 print edition)
    @Thanks @Edmond for the insights on CPREX. I noted that one of the roundtable participants mentioned it favorably - that’s all. 10 different participants. Some may have been tossing grenades. However, based on your description, I’ve decided not to invest the $1,000,000 minimum in that fund.
    Randal Forsyth summarized Zulauf’s current bearish views a few weeks ago. I checked Zulauf’s forecasting record which isn’t very good, and so I withheld posting that on the board. I’m somewhat in agreement with Zulauf myself. But it’s certainly not a mainstream view. Would be happy to hear you and others discuss it - supplying the necessary substance to make Zulauf’s case or negate it. I subscribe to Bill Fleckenstein’s “Daily Rap” column / blog and get a somewhat similar take on the markets there as what Zulauf is saying.