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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Feds invade Georgia Hyundai facility
    More on this: Excerpts from a current NPR report-
    South Korea's foreign minister is considering a trip to the U.S. to meet with the Trump administration after hundreds of South Korean nationals were arrested in Georgia this week at an electric vehicle battery plant.
    "We are deeply concerned and feel a heavy sense of responsibility over the arrests of our nationals," Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said at an emergency meeting in Seoul.
    He said South Korean President Lee Jae Myung called for all-out efforts to swiftly resolve the matter, "stressing that the rights and interests of South Korean nationals and the business operations of South Korean companies investing in the United States must not be infringed upon."
    U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents arrested 475 people, most of them South Korean nationals, in a raid Thursday at a massive electric vehicle battery plant under construction in Ellabell, Ga. The plant is a joint venture between Hyundai Motor Group and LG Energy Solution.
    "This operation underscores our commitment to protecting jobs for Georgians and Americans," said Steven Schrank, special agent in charge of homeland security investigations for Georgia and Alabama, during a news conference announcing the operation. "We are sending a clear and unequivocal message that those who exploit our workforce, undermine our economy and violate federal laws will be held accountable."
    He said it was not an operation where agents simply rounded up people and put them on buses, but the result of a months-long investigation. The workers, Schrank said, were either illegally present in the U.S. or working unlawfully.
    The arrests add to tension with a key ally at a time when President Trump has been pushing for trade deals and more South Korean investment in the U.S. Hyundai also has an auto plant in Montgomery, Ala., and has announced plans to invest more than $5 billion in a steel plant in Louisiana.
    "I would say that they were illegal aliens, and ICE was just doing its job," Trump said when asked about the raid at the White House on Friday.
    Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia says the raid raises questions about both the president's immigration strategy and how the firms were able to allegedly employ workers without proper documentation.
  • Leuthold Grizzly Short Fund will undergo 1-4 reverse stock split
    ”I'm no trader, but a quick look at the GRZZX 5-year chart shows a steady decline from about $11.00 in 9/2020 to about $5.00 now. Maybe just to make the worth of the fund look a little better?”
    That’s pretty much what posters on this thread say (cosmetics).
    A more rational idea (further down in the discussion) ) also sounds possible: ”Commission and margin rules at many banks have a share price lower threshold value, below which margin requirements are far stricter and commissions are higher. Doing a reverse split puts them back above this threshold …Option markets tend to dry up when stocks go below $3 or so
    If Leuthhold were to come out with an etf version of Grizzly I might be inclined to own a few shares. Using an OEF for the purpose of hedging really doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I think Leuthold waives short term / frequent trading fees & restrictions on this one. But very likely your brokerage wouldn’t.
  • US Appeals Court says tariffs are illegal.
    You have freedom of choice, exercise it.
    I am all for freedom of speech, but IMHO a more appropriate place for the blatant anti-Trump statements should be a political forum, not an investing forum.
  • Morgan Stanley says longer Muni Bonds great opportunity
    A key report from Morgan Stanley, titled "A Historic Dislocation: Opportunity at the Long End of the Municipal Curve," published on August 15, 2025, detailed the rationale behind their bullish stance. Despite the Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index showing negative returns year-to-date, the report highlighted a potential buying opportunity. The firm's analysis pointed to a "historic dislocation" and technical factors that, in their view, made long-term municipal bonds particularly attractive. They also noted a trend of institutional investors rotating out of corporate bonds and into municipals.
    Heard a MS rep on CNBC World claim that even if you don’t need tax advantages, longer munis still good opportunity - he was pitching to Japanese clients.
    Which muni bonds funds do you like? VETI, MUNI, NUVBX, FMBIX?
    https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/individual-investor/insights/articles/opportunity-at-the-long-end-of-the-municipal-curve.html
  • Leuthold Grizzly Short Fund will undergo 1-4 reverse stock split
    I'm no trader, but a quick look at the GRZZX 5-year chart shows a steady decline from about $11.00 in 9/2020 to about $5.00 now. Maybe just to make the worth of the fund look a little better?
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Look at WCPNX. I used to own it, but it was going nowhere fast. It was too tame for me. Solid, low risk. 4.85% current yield. Top 10 in portfolio is all Treasuries, except one listing of Fannie Mae.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/wcpnx/risk
  • Feds invade Georgia Hyundai facility
    More detail: Excerpts from a report in The Guardian:
    At least 475 workers detained in major Ice raid at US Hyundai factory
    South Korea alarmed after hundreds of nationals arrested at Georgia work site making batteries for Hyundai and Kia cars
    Hundreds of workers at a factory being built in Georgia to make car batteries for Hyundai and Kia electric vehicles were detained in a huge raid by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) on Thursday that stopped construction.
    The facility is part of what would be the biggest industrial investment in the state’s history and had been hailed as a huge boost for the economy by Georgia’s Republican governor, Brian Kemp.
    About 475 workers were arrested, according to US immigration officials on Friday, the largest single-site enforcement operation in the history of the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which was created in the aftermath of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on the US in New York and Washington DC.
    However, the Korea Economic Daily earlier had reported about 560 workers at the Hyundai facility and LG Energy Solution (LGES), had been detained, citing unidentified industry sources. About 300 are South Korean nationals, according to local media reports. Hyundai Motor is a South Korean automotive company but has many international plants.
    The raid on Thursday has dealt a setback to the company’s substantial project in Georgia and was a dramatic iteration of the Trump administration’s harsh crackdown on immigrants in the US.
    It also showed the disruptive impact that Donald Trump’s mass deportation agenda is having on businesses, even as the White House tries to spur more inflows from foreign investors.
    South Korea’s foreign ministry said that “many of our nationals” had been detained and expressed concern about the impact of the raid.
    The battery production facility, a joint venture between South Korean battery maker LGES and Hyundai Motor, was due to start operations at the end of this year, according to LGES, to power electric vehicles.
    The battery factory is part of Hyundai’s $12.6bn investments in Georgia, including the automaker’s just-opened car factory, in what would be “the largest economic development project in the state’s history” and is part of a bigger investment in US industry by the South Korean company, announced in March as Trump was ramping up tariffs.

  • 2025 Tax Changes to Prepare For
    People with working class retirement income get the ability to deduct $1K worth of charitable deductions without itemizing (starting in 2026). Only matters if their income is greater than the standard deduction.
    Since their tax brackets are lower than the those of the wealthy, this deduction is of less value to them than to high earners. IMHO a fairer break would have been to give a tax credit of, say, 50% of the amount contributed, up to a $500 credit (50% of $1K).
    With an increased standard deduction and an extra $6K "senior deduction", people with working class retirement income get the ability to convert more of their IRA tax free. That is, they can generate more income from conversions while still staying under the (now increased) standard deduction amount. This in turn gives them more flexibility in future years as the amount they must take from their T-IRA (RMD) is reduced.
    Their tax bracket (assuming they are subject to taxes) is locked in at 10% or 12%. Without this legislation, roughly speaking the 12% bracket would have reverted to 15%.
    https://smartasset.com/taxes/trump-tax-brackets
    Chickenfeed. But slightly above zero. Perhaps.
  • Sentiment & Market Indicators, 9/3/25
    Then there is this market topping signal that works sometimes:
    from the linked article:
    Quietness in the stock market is a sign of a topping condition for prices. This phenomenon works this way because after an uptrend, people feel more confident, everyone is feeling fine, there are no perceived problems, and no need to get aggressive or ambitious with one’s trading. So price and breadth data show that quietness. But after a decline, people get more panicky, and that shows up with louder breadth numbers.
    This week's chart shows an indicator which is a derivative of the McClellan Oscillator which my parents created back in 1969. The indicator looks at the Oscillator's values over the preceding 15 trading days, to see what the total range of values is. High readings mean that the Oscillator has been moving a lot, which reflects a more violent condition in the breadth numbers associated with a bottoming condition. But low readings like the one we see right now means everything is calm, which can be a topping condition.
    ... emphasis on "can be"!
    narrow_range_of_mcclellan
  • 2025 Tax Changes to Prepare For
    Thanks @yogibearbull
    Looking for a tax calculator that incorporates all of these changes... especially for a 65+ youngster.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    @Crash- Actually, I found a pic which would have guaranteed  that you would skip lunch, but I didn't have the heart to do that to you. :)
    :)
    Anyhow, time for a break. It's the week-end. What new surprise will we be presented with at the tail end of the news cycle? That's the Orange Felon's habit, eh? Anyhow, I'm feeling good, having contributed today to a pet charitable project. Stealing a page from Scott Galloway. He and Kara Swisher are quite engaging on their podcasts. She made me giggle a little while ago, as a guest with Nicolle Wallace on her own podcast: "The Best People." They were tying it up. Swisher mentioned that "lesbians should raise all the children; the world would be a better place." I might have to just agree with that. Jayzuz. Any more mass shootings today that I don't know about? ..... Watch the subdued reaction to today's jobs report from the WH, eh? The Orange Liar In Chief dissembled in his inimitable way, almost making sense with his response, when asked about it.
    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBHGZpDF2fsqPIPi0pNyuTg
    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5487439-trump-friday-jobs-report-real-numbers/
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    05 September, 2025: Scarlet Fu hosts.
    Kay Herr (JPM) looking for sub-trend growth in fixed income, the equivalent of a "soft landing." Normal, healthy slowdown in job growth.
    Ian Lyngen (BMO) notes that today's lower-than-expected jobs number includes the 2nd-lowest participation rate of the year. Revisions will of course be expected. The job market is cooling, not contracting.
    Herr: the automated phone calls, asking people to respond in order to collect unemployment information, is surely not the best way to acquire data. (I recall, in the 2000s, receiving these calls from the gummint, and did my duty; lots of people just don't.) Herr states that the 3rd (of 3) automated calls attracts greater participation than the first two.
    Will there be a 50 basis point cut in Sept? More than likely not.
    Patrice Altongy (HSBC) and Matthew Mish (UBS):
    This past Tues: record 10-year UK gilt sale, at 14B pounds stirling. Also, best week in issuance since May in Europe: 79B euro. USA: 2nd-most active week of the year in I.G. (But note, it was a short week, with the holiday.) JUNK: yields are near a 40-month low. Demand is fostering a big growth in supply. Wednesday was the busiest day in 3 months. Default rates are still low. BDCs are quite busy.
    Interest rates are heading lower. RISKS in the economy? The labor market, and the A.I. trade. Also, Private Credit quality must be watched.
    Clients still sitting on lots of cash.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-09-05/real-yield-9-5-2025-video
  • Do You Really Need 'Private' Investments? (Independent Vanguard Adviser, 05.27.2025)
    I didn't find prior commentary regarding this recent SEC ruling which impacts closed-end funds.
    "Before regulators formally lifted the informal rule on Aug. 15, 2025, closed-end funds
    and their cousins—interval and tender offer funds—that put more than 15% of their assets
    in private funds could only sell themselves to accredited investors,
    or individuals with a net worth of more than $1 million or an annual income of at least $200,000."

    "The old limit applied to private fund exposure only, though.
    Closed-end funds were able to and still can invest as much as they wish in private debt
    or equity securities, whether they limit themselves to accredited investors or not."

    "The secondary managers are coming for you! What are secondary funds?
    These are funds that invest in existing private funds.
    They are funds-of-private-funds that seek to provide private market exposure
    to investors by investing in multiple managers’ private funds."

    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/funds-private-funds-masses-what-investors-need-know-about-secs-latest-guidance
  • Wellington is coming out of the shadows
    History is interesting.
    Bogle was rushing to launch no-load Vanguard in 1974/75 because he was afraid that Capital Group/AF may beat him to that.
    But Capital Group did nothing of the sort. In fact, it became the class champion - tapping all channel sources for its funds. So, RERFX has 19 classes! Then, there are ETFs and separate accounts.
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    Labor number released today does not bode confident that the economy is bursting at the seam. Actually, it is contracting for several consecutive months.
    Stagnation: The data underscores the extent to which consumers and businesses are struggling to accommodate the weight of tariffs, stubborn inflation, the decline in America’s crucial immigrant workforce and overall economic uncertainty.
    https://cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-august-2025
  • Government Statistics: Trump fires labor statistics chief after weaker than expected jobs report
    It's all Biden's fault.
    Yeah. I thought about pointing out that Biden never had a month where the number of jobs dropped. But it wouldn't be fair to mention that without giving Trump some credit.
    Trump handed Biden an economy with so few people working (Trump being first president since Hoover to lose jobs on his watch) that Biden's employment numbers had nowhere to go but up.
    (Actually job growth merely caught up with its pre-Covid trajectory that started with Obama.)
    image
  • US Appeals Court says tariffs are illegal.

                              And @FD1000 IS PROUD TO BE AN AMERICAN !!!
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