Fixed income outlook from Schwab Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.
Grantham’s at it again … No one (including myself, Mr. Grantham, Dodge & Cox or T Rowe Price) is offering investment advice.
Grantham may be exercising a time honored
persuasive technique.
Grantham’s at it again … I pity the poor soul who has followed Grantham’s advice over the past 10 years or so.
Grantham’s at it again … FWIW,
I and everybody I personally know invest based on our view of the future - I.e., personal predictions - and within the limitations life imposes on us. Agree that prediction in this context is not the same as certainty of outcome.
I have followed Grantham's various public pronouncements about equity returns for the past 10 years. A few years after one such pronouncements, his firm's then deputy CIO (Ben Inker?) was asked in a Morningstar interview why their funds did not reflect those pronouncements and he came clean saying that they never got around to investing in line with those pronouncements. Lucky for their fund shareholders.
The linked article in the OP includes the following: "Our forecast is to have a negative return on US stocks over the next seven years. I strongly believe that will be accurate." [Bold added] He may turn out to be correct about negative returns for SPY or VTI from now until October 2028 (7 years?) but not IMO because of currently known facts. I am invested in SPY and am not reducing it based on the quoted statements but I will understand if somebody at MFO wants to reduce or even liquidate their SPY or other US equity holdings based on those statements.
Nobody should take the above personally. No offense is intended.
AAII This is an
example of the tracking of the
AAII Sentiment Survey that I do. It is available elsewhere and my intention is not to start the series here.
AAII Sentiment Survey,
11/
17/2
1For the week ending on
11/
17/2
1, there was a decrease in the bullish sentiment but it remained the top sentiment (38.8%; now average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.9%; above average). Early December deadlines loom for budget & debt-ceiling. The decision on Fed Chair (POWELL or BRAINARD?) has to be made soon with Powell's term expiring in February 2022. Electric-vehicles (EVs) remain a very speculative area (Rivian/RIVN, Lucid/LCID, etc).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
10-
14-2
1 37.9
1% 30.33% 3
1.75%
10-2
1-2
1 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-2
1 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-04-2
1 4
1.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-
11-2
1 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-
17-2
1 38.8% 33.9% 27.2%Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 3
1.43% 30.54%
STD
10.0
1% 08.36% 09.50%
LINK
Grantham’s at it again … “Grantham for all his long term predictions does not invest his funds in line with his predictions.“A legitimate point. But I don’t invest according to my own predictions either.
Does anyone?
Prediction does not =
certainty. So some humility as investors is appropriate. What I attempt to do is tilt things in the direction I think will reduce overall portfolio risk while achieving best hoped for results under varying market environments. Not a perfect science. And beyond the scope of this discussion - except that philosophically it might help understand Grantham’s seeming hypocrisy. What may not be apparent in the list of Grantham’s investments (linked below) are derivatives he may have employed which are designed to offset losses in down markets.
One thing that set me to thinking about all this was Dodge and Cox’s revelation in a recent portfolio report (for DODBX) that they hold a 5% short position in the S&P, which they think highly overvalued, while continuing to invest in the stocks they find attractive. Quite an unusual step for this very conservative house.
And this from T.Rowe Price’s May 3
1 Annual Report for their Spectrum Allocation funds …
“As we look ahead, the central question for investors—assuming the economy’s recovery from the pandemic continues apace—is whether the returns on financial assets will be as robust. Valuations are elevated in nearly all asset classes, and in some areas, there are clear signs of speculation. It is not an easy environment to invest in, but our investment teams remain rooted in company fundamentals and focused on the long term, and they will continue to apply strong fundamental analysis as they seek out the best investments for your portfolio.” https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=ann&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77957L302Note: The above was written 6 months ago. Can we say valuations are better now than they were than? And the
“signs of speculation” less apparent?
Grantham’s Top Investments
Grantham’s at it again … Mr. Grantham's investments are quite aggressive despite his gloomy market predictions.
“This is going on as far as the eye can see. It’s an unfair advantage for green investing, Grantham said.
There may be a bubble that will affect this for a year or two, but it will come back bigger and better than other groups because of this tailwind. This is going to be the most important investment theme for the rest of your life.”"To exploit this green boom, Grantham is making risky bets.
Venture capital and other private investments now compose more than three-quarters of the $1.4 billion in assets he manages across a foundation, a charitable trust and his personal holdings."
"Grantham says his venture-capital portfolio has returned 19% annually over the past decade, including a 102% jump in 2020, a 'watershed' year."
Link
Grantham’s at it again …
Grantham’s at it again … @sma3 - Thanks for posting the Bloomberg interview. Had forgotten I’d viewed it recently.
Yeah - Hussman’s a perma-bear. Somehow think Grantham’s a little sharper. GMO must have some good supporting talent & research capability. A bit more here than just some old man crying
wolf. Hope he’s wrong. I’d like everybody to be rich, and making money has been easy for many years now.
March 2009 is when things started to move. Dow has climbed from around 6,000 than to over 36,000 of recent. Just 2 or 3 brief hiccups along the way. The thing some of us who survived ‘07-‘09 might think about is whether at
15 years additional age we’d be willing / able to ride out a storm like that again - possibly something worse. Not a prediction. Just something I thought might add some balance to the general euphorism here.
@Old_Joe / A nickel for your subscription is in the mail. Am confident I’ll get my money’s worth.
Grantham’s at it again … 
Grantham’s at it again … +
1 @MikeMThanks for those stats. I realize he’s been early / wrong / or whatever for quite a while.
To dump some fuel on the fire here, the new EV truck maker, Rivian, that went public about a week ago now has a market cap greater than that of either GM or Ford. I don’t think they’ve sold a single production model yet, although Amazon (who has a stake in the company) has ordered
100,000. Nuts!
(At least Mike’s wearing a helmet in case everything goes to hell …) :)
now, here's an unusual financial calculator need TIAA has 2 kinds of RMD services.
1st is informational RMD calculation but TIAA doesn't act on that. If one has multiple 403b, their RMDs can be combined and taken from any one 403b. TIAA doesn't know about investors' plans.
2nd is contractual RMD service where TIAA calculates, makes RMD withdrawals, and sends them to designated accounts.
So, don't waste money on lawyers before knowing this.
Grantham’s at it again … I didn't see in the article what inflation factor is used in these predictions. Did I miss it?
Grantham has been doing this so long there are now reality checks for those predictions. I found this one from 20
18 where on Dec. 3
1, 20
10 this 7 year prediction was made. Below, prediction and actual 7 years later.
20
10 prediction... 20
18 actual
US LC predicted +0.4%... actual was +
12%
US SC predicted -
1.9%... actual was +
10%
Int LC predicted +2.
1%... actual was +5%
Int SC predicted -
1.4%... actual was +4%
EM predicted 4.
1%... actual was 0%
https://www.mymoneyblog.com/gmo-asset-return-forecasts-vs-actual-returns-2011-2018.htmlNot sure what to make of it but this obviously smart man has had trouble with his predictions in the past. Why adjust based on future predictions? Yeah, we may be in a value bubble and a bear market is always on the horizon somewhere down the road, but sounds like his algorithms were saying the same thing in 20
10. Remember, his predications have to not only predict the global equity markets, but also the rate of inflation. Impossible task maybe? But A+ for the effort.
November Commentary is live! Make use of stable-value (SV) within 401k/403b/457. Good options at TIAA, OK at Federal TSP & elsewhere.
Don't overlook I-Bonds although limited in amounts - but $30k/yr possible for an average US family of 3.15.
Grantham’s at it again … A pity that this guy has to be hocking his investment program around Grantham's advice. The question of when we have a crash is hard, perhaps impossible, to answer. Grantham's been right a few times timing wise--2000 especially--but wrong a lot lately. I'm more interested in figuring out what kind of crash it might be, what will trigger it, how to recognize it once it's begun, how much of a decline it could be, how long it might last, and what to do when it happens. GMO's 7-year Inflation-Adjusted Forecast:
Asset transfers to Vanguard People should of course be careful. But realistically, some 3rd party may be involved in such back-office/processing fin-tech stuff. Not every institutions will have in-house/internal capabilities on this fin-tech. So, it comes down to the trust one has in the 2 institutions involved.
I use Zelle and don't think it is a solution. Zelle transactions are limited by banks to $200-2,000 (small potatoes). Transactions/mistakes are NOT reversible/fixable - and users accepted that condition on sign up. Try sending $100K or $1 million by Zelle (-:).
SS increase: what to do We got our boosters at our local CVS. They schedule appts 15 minutes apart and their process went flawlessly for us who happened to get ours on two different days, so we saw it happen twice there. That said, the pharmacist who we've known for years did express a lot of angst though over how taxing the process is on their staffing.
Fidelity's Joel Tillinghast to retire from active management in 2023
Yes, YBB, that is the PV Chart I was trying to link. Thanks!
And anyone who happened to look at the LINK I incorrectly posted might just want to take a look at the LINK YBB correctly posted for me.
Asset transfers to Vanguard I have had good luck (and speed) to transfer asset to/out of Vanguard. Typically, it takes about 10 days from start to finish. The most time consuming part is having to mail in the form to Vanguard. T. Rowe Price requires signature guarantee from a bank and credit union which takes another day to complete.