Shake down has started and I am not surprised. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/elon-musk-says-twitter-deal-on-hold-pending-details-on-fake-accounts.html

I wish market commentators would stop using points and use percentages instead.
Points aren't that meaningful anymore.

Totally agree but saying "is off 3.5 percent" isn't the same impact as "down over 1100 points!" when spoken by pundits or headline writers in the news industry...A single big number is more emotional, which the press needs to capture attention.
... though it'd get really boring when they say "up/down by 0.45 percent" which would confuse most people since it a) presumes they don't know whether that's a big or small move on the index in question, and/or b) require some mental math to figure out.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-60-40-portfolio-is-having-its-worst-year-ever-what-to-buy-instead-51652394644?mod=bol-social-tw
"(Bold for YBB emphasis) The heyday of the 60/40 portfolio, an allocation of 60% stocks and 40% bonds, is over. According to Bank of America Securities, the popular investment strategy is having its worst year ever .....“Sustained weakness across bond and equity markets further supports the ‘end of 60/40′ thesis,” BofA analysts said in a report. “Adjusting for inflation, a 60/40 portfolio is on pace to lose 49% this year, which would be the worst annual return on record. The correlation between stocks and bonds turned positive in March and is now the highest in a quarter-century.”....."

@wxman123: that is some serious confidence in BITQ. I hope you get rewarded.

It is literally the bet I feel most confident in as regards risk versus reward at the moment. People really misunderstand this space. I am NOT saying that any particular crypto will do great, though bitcoin has many advantages as one of the first/largest, but the tech is here forever, IMO. I think crypto may be leading the market, up and down these days.

Sold out of PRIDX, used proceeds to buy more PRNEX.
7.63% in energy now. I'll be growing that via ET. Financials are up to almost 35%. PRWCX still =34.91% of total. TUHYX and PRFRX are neck-and-neck at 9.3% each in portfolio.

Health insurance premiums (including ACA Insurance premiums) are deductible against self employment income
It's a subtle point, but the self-employed health insurance deduction (formerly 1040 line 29, now Schedule 1 line 17) is an above the line deduction against gross income rather than a deduction against self employment income (which would be on Schedule C). True, it is capped by the amount of self-employment income, but it doesn't reduce self-employment income.
This is a distinction with a difference.
Suppose one has $10K in self-employment income (after deducting business expenses), and no other compensation ("earned income"). Suppose further that one paid $11K for health insurance.
Then one would be able to take a $10K above the line deduction. Since the deduction isn't against self-employment income, total compensation would remain $10K. And so one would be permitted to contribute $10K to an IRA.
Had the insurance cost been treated like every other business expense, i.e. deducted against self-employment income, then the self-employed income would have been zero, and no IRA contribution would have been permitted.
Yes, this is double counting a deduction. And yet that's the way it really works. It's a presumably unintended consequence of treating insurance costs differently for self-employed individuals than for companies.

@yogibearbull,
Any thoughts on the following?
VIX was down yesterday when S&P 500 was down a decent amount. VIX is having difficulty cracking 35 today.
AAII- S&P 500 has been down about 10% since 4/28 while Bearish sentiment is also down coincidentally about 10% - focusing on the severity of the moves in the same direction rather than the percentage of the move.
CNN fear and greed index is at 6 - the lowest in a year. (CNN is no longer giving me a long term chart of this but I do not remember seeing this low reading in ten years, except for in March 2020).
2-10 yr rates have come down about 20 bps in the past week but not collapsing.
The question I am asking myself is, is the stablecoin fiasco muddling some of the readings and perhaps the contagion is not systemic enough to call a bottom in the stock market?
P.S.: Senate confirmed Powell for the second term.

Ho-hum. DJ Down 500 at 2:00 PM / S&P Down 62 / NASDAQ Down 190
Worse in the precious metals. Miners off 4-5%. Silver getting hit especially hard.
On the brighter side, ARKK appears to have bounced. Presently up +2.25% for the day. Remember - “Every journey starts with that first step.”
Cheers

@wxman123: that is some serious confidence in BITQ. I hope you get rewarded.

For the week ending on 5/11/22, Sentiment remained very negative: Bearish remained the top sentiment (49.0%; very high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (24.3%; low); neutral became the middle sentiment (26.6%; below average). Investor concerns included high inflation; high market volatility (VIX, VXN); supply-chain disruptions; crypto-crash (there is correlation between cryptos and speculative stocks); Russia-Ukraine war (now 11+ weeks). In the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), almost everything was down (stocks, bonds, oil, gold) with the exception of dollar. #AAII, #Sentiment, #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/626/thread

I pulled up a 10 year chart of TRBCX comparing to FBGRX. The charts overlapped so much until March 2020 (Covid) bottom that one will be forgiven for thinking they are the same fund. But from Covid bottom, TRBCX and FBGRX diverged considerably and at TRBCX's recent peak in Nov 2021, FBGRX returned 175% while TRBCX returned 122%. However, from that peak, both have returned equal amounts and their charts look identical again. It is possible that from Covid bottom until Nov 2021, different active managers showed their skills but since Nov 2021, similar mandates performed similarly - i.e., manager skill may not have mattered much since Nov 2021.
An observation similar to the one above can be made for TRGOX (T. Rowe Large Cap Growth fund) vs TRBCX (i.e., TGROX performed better) but FBGRX was a clear winner among the three during the Covid crisis.
Additional Info: According to M* fund analysis, FBGRX has 281 holdings with an AUM of $70B in the strategy, while TRBCX has 83 holdings with an AUM of $160B in the strategy.

I've owned Matthews funds (MAPIX, MAPTX) previously and believed Matthews was an estimable firm.
Lydia So and Rahul Gupta left the firm in April 2020.
Tiffany Hsiao, YuanYuan Ji, and Beini Zhou left August 31, 2020.
These PM departures occurred within a short timeframe which really concerned me.
I no longer have a high regard for Matthews because of this and mediocre overall performance in recent years.
@ProtonAnalyst33,
I was not aware that a private equity firm has an ownership stake in Matthews.
Do you know when this PE firm initiated its stake?

Your list of names made me go dig up my notepad! There were other key PM departures: Raymond Deng who was a brilliant up and coming PM on Pacific Tiger and China left for Genesis in 2021. Robert Harvey, lead PM of their frontier asia fund also left in 2021. I recall the first major PM departure that shocked me was Kenichi Amaki, who was lead PM of the Japan fund (left for capital group in 2019). Brilliant investor and had basically been with the firm his entire investment career up until that point. how could they let him go? That was the begining of the exodus it seems and I stopped investing in the matthews funds and started asking more questions. In total, I recall them losing over 10 next gen PMs in the span of 2 years. Scary for an investment team of less than 40!
There was also that bizarre hiring then resignation of their President and CIO, Yu Ming Wang. The loss of PMs couldn't be attributable to him b/c many occured before he was even brought in. Truly odd and something I've never seen before in my 40 years in the business. https://citywireselector.com/news/matthews-asia-global-cio-exits-after-less-than-a-year-in-role/a1404581
I believe their new COO also left in less than 2 years, but the PM departures and their profiles (and where they left to) really spooked me.
Re the PE firm, I googled and found this. I think its Lovell Minnik. This article says they first invested in Matthews in 2011. That's over 10 years of being invested, which is a bit long in the tooth for a PE fund. Seems that supports the "sales mode" the firm has undertaken. I am guessing that fund life is coming to an end, so PE firm must sell sell sell!
https://www.themiddlemarket.com/news/lovell-minnick-backs-asia-focused-asset-manager
Something is going on at Matthews and it doesn't seem great for investors. I'd urge everyone to do your diligence.

Threw in the towel, yes it was a white towel ! Sold TMSRX. I ran out of bourbon !
I caught an article in Wed. WSJ . It states dippers are still on the loose .
Data from Vanda Research , 2014 to YTD.
Thursday , largest buying day on record.
March, Largest buying month.
Thinking this buying was from individual investors.
Now what to think of this ? Any ideas ?
Have a good evening, Derf

@Charles Lynn Bolin...enjoyed the recent commentary...resonated with me.
Charles, how do you feel about putting monies into funds that have a somewhat "black box" dynamic to them...yes, they explain their positions but sometimes I wonder, how safe of an investment are some of these funds?
I've had my eye on Grant Park Multi (GPANX) for a while now and have stepped in, toes first, testing the waters...other than I bonds, and Tbills, 2 yr treasury, I think this type of fund might be the only way you can scrape up mid single digit returns for the next few years.
Regarding BLNDX, Standpoint, it's done well YTD but I am concerned the mgr's model might not be picking up quickly enough if there is a trend change, meaning stonk markets really flush, like a limit down day I mean and/or bond yields start moving down and the commodity futures trades turn quickly on him...the 5% down in one day last autumn still holds in my memory and I have reduced my position here....did pick up a bit on PQTAX PIMCO Trend as I'm not certain but my perception (and I could be way wrong) is that their models might be quicker to account for a turn in certain markets and likely less stonk mkt exposure?
Hold on Palm Valley, PVCMX, nibble position started recently in RPEIX T Rowe Global Dynamic Bondo.
Continue to shovel in cash into 90 day Tbill, 6 month T bill, 1 and 2 Yr T Notes.
Safety first, rule1 don't lose money.
Of course, do what works for you, don't listen to anyone on line like me who does not know anything about anything, I just post here to share what I'm doing and only for entertainment purposes.
Good Luck to all,
Baseball Fan

There will surely be more pain..... I'm adding to my oil/gas midstream play, ET....... FINANCIALS have been killing me, constantly, since I bought-in, earlier in '22. Really sucking cow farts. My biggest bite in Financials is in PRISX, TRP. .....Bar Harbor Bank, less so, but nothing to write home about. (BHB.) Still rated "BUY" by the only TWO analysts who bother with it. Regarding my long-time darlings, the big Canadian banks: All are trading at Fair Value (Morningstar) except for CM, at a -13% discount at the moment (Morningstar.) And I still own ZERO in any of them. But if we are in the midst of a "Grand Re-Pricing" event in this moment, now may be a good time to grab me a buncha CM... Decisions, decisions.... What's a mother to do?

Hold tight to financials. The bank always wins in the long run. preferred players, BTO and KBWP.

Hi Sirs:
Or try
Brandy
SCOTCH
Wild turkey
Works VERY well in this market
Friend A loss -530k last 4-5D
Friend B -350k after all in w Luna crypto over weekend
Few committed suicide in other country per news
Headline tomorrow:
60% crypto traders bankrupted
80% stress depressed
1% contemplating suicide
Lucky I got out cryptos and options 6 wks ago
Still down lots for 6 months

Crypto is one area that I feel fairly certain will recover and I'm buying more with each daily crash. There is no fundamental reason for the sell off, sold by those who should not have bought in the first place. I'm not sure which crypto vehicle will prevail, only that the technology and concept is here to stay. Using BITQ to make my bet.

Jason Zweig, When Cheaper P/E Ratios Mean Nothing, WSJ, Aug 16, 2017.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-cheaper-p-e-ratios-mean-nothing-1502458113
Aside from negative P/Es, there's a more basic question of how the P/E of a portfolio is calculated.

And what is used in the industry? The Investment Company Institute, the mutual funds trade group, says funds may use any method they like to calculate P/E ratios. Spokesman Chris Wloszczyna says, "There are no regulations." At Vanguard, the industry's second-largest fund company, spokesman Brian Mattes says he's "not sure what methodology" the company uses to determine its funds' P/E ratios. Value Line reports an average P/E that is the arithmetic mean, but with negative P/Es and those greater than 100 excluded.

Agrrawal, Pankaj, et al. “Using the Price-to-Earnings Harmonic Mean to Improve Firm Valuation Estimates.” Journal of Financial Education, vol. 36, no. 3/4, 2010, pp. 98–110
https://www.jstor.org/stable/41948650
M* currently uses a weighted arithmetic average of the P/Es:

The (P/E) ratio of a fund is the weighted average of the price/earnings ratios of the stocks in a fund's portfolio. At Morningstar, in computing the average, each portfolio holding is weighted by the percentage of equity assets it represents, so that larger positions have proportionately greater influence on the fund's final P/E.

https://www.morningstar.com/invglossary/price_earnings_ratio.aspx
FWIW, I agree with the JSTOR paper that a weighted harmonic mean makes the most sense: Add up all the earnings in the portfolio and divide that into the total price of the portfolio. This also does a somewhat better job at handling negative P/E stocks.

FBGRX, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth, has actually outperformed TRP’s Blue Chip fund. Also heavily tech and growth names. Just another alternative for “bottom fishing.”

Thanks for the information
I have in the distant past owned TRBCX. Was a fine fund 15 years ago. But things change. It fell 3% today putting it down over 33% YTD. If you liked it at the end of 2021, you gotta love it now - at 2/3 the price.

At some point it will be prudent to buy a former high flyer, such as ARKK. BGAFX, Alex Umansky’s entry in the Baron stable, has declined 48% YTD and considerably more if you consider its 2021 peak to the current trough. Some aggressive growth funds could do no wrong for a long time; now it appears they can do no right. Thing is, no one knows where the bottom is. Even reasonably priced, profitable tech companies are getting gored.