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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Buy, Sell and Ponder October 2017



  • Closed out long-time position in GPEOX; adding the yearly max to GPMCX and holding GPGOX. The EM fund hasn't been bad, but it has lagged and I can afford to trim there.
  • BenWP said:

    Closed out long-time position in GPEOX; adding the yearly max to GPMCX and holding GPGOX. The EM fund hasn't been bad, but it has lagged and I can afford to trim there.

    You're going to regret that.
  • edited October 2017
    carew388 said:

    @hank-some clarification on TUHYX. I was concerned the fund might close in the future, and the fund previously wasn't available on numerous brokerage platforms, so I took a small position to reserve my spot. I see this fund as a substitute for PRHYX which IIRC is still closed. Sorry for the long-winded response.

    Thanks for the clarification. That’s a perfectly reasonable move - and not necessarily a sign of bullish sentiment.

  • Why not HYB if you like TRP High Yield exposure? Fabulous CEF.
  • edited October 2017
    If gold drops further I’d put a toe back in the water. Sold OPGSX @$18 couple months ago. Has dropped to around $16.50 today. I’m really concerned about the messages coming out of Washington. Corker, McCain, Flake and many former military & civilian leaders have been really unloading. (Also former Presidents of both parties.) Regardless of your affiliation, this kind of turmoil can’t bode well for the nation or the stock market.
  • I'm bearish over the next 3 years maybe. But damn if i have any guesses for the next year let alone month. I usually follow dash of insight for 3-9 month indicators. And he mainly focuses on whether a 20+% drawdown is expected.
  • @carew388 "Two ntf alternatives to GABCX are MERFX ARBFX."

    I looked at all three, having owned MERFX for a long time. GABCX is not avaliable for new accounts at either Fido, Schwab or Vanguard ( I can't stand Mario anyway so I would have to hold my nose) The other two are similar but ARBFX has a smaller asset base and has done a little better long term. Don't expect rocketships but it has produced a relatively modest return without a lot of downside. They do better in years when there is a lot of merger activity

    I have to be put into the bearish camp, near retirement and more worried about "the return of my capital than the return on my capital". I have left my long term funds alone but have ratcheted down equity exposure over the year to about 30% to 35% and emphasizing short duration bonds
  • edited October 2017

    Today is the last Friday of the month and a monthly close for Old_Skeet. The previous week there was no report on the barometer but the week closed with a reading of 132 and every feed indicated that the S&P 500 Index was overbought. This week a good bit of the overbought condition was worked off as the barometer closed the week, and the month, with a reading of 143 putting it just barely into overvalued territory and close to fair value. Generally, a lower barometer reading indicates there is less investment value in the Index while a higher reading indicates potentially more investment value.

    The three major feeds of the barometer are a breadth feed which measures the number of stocks in the 500 Index above their 200 moving average. An earnings feed that combines both forward earnings estimates and as reported earnings (TTM). And, a technical score feed that is a combination of the Money Flow Index and Relative Strength Index. Combined these three feeds produce the barometer reading. The higher the combine feeds score the lower the barometer reading. And, at times, the slow stoch and short interest feeds factor into the reading. Just this past week short interest in SPY rose form 2.8 days to 3.3 days to cover. If the Index continues to advance I look for short interest (days to cover) to pullback as shorts cover their positions.

    For the month the three best performing major sector etfs followed were XLF, XLB & XLK. From a technical score perspective only XLP (staples) offers investment value, form my perspective, as it is the only sector etf followed that is currently scored undervalued.

    At this time, due to valuation, Old_Skeet is not buying (nor selling) and remains in a cash build mode as my mutual funds make their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio. According to my equity weighting matrix, which is driven by the barometer, I am overweight equities, at this time, by about 4% due to a seasonal investment strategy.

    I wish all "Good Investing."
  • TedTed
    edited October 2017
    @ Old _Skeet & MFO Members: Here is a complete breakdown of the Sector SPDR's ETF Funds.
    One Month % Change
    S&P 500 Index
    Consumer Discretionary (XLY)
    Consumer Staples (XLP)
    Energy (XLE)
    Financials (XLF)
    Health Care (XLV)
    Industrials (XLI)
    Materials (XLB)
    Real Estate (XLRE)
    Technology (XLK)
    Utilities (XLU)
  • @MFO Members: With my recent dividends in CIM I buying MSOPX, a two year old World Large Cap Growth Fund that will give me a little more foreign stock exposure. In it's short life MSOPX has had excellent returns. Suggest you take a look.
    M* Snapshot MSOPX:
  • edited October 2017
    Hi @Ted, MSOPX is indeed a nice concentrated fund consisting of about 30 stocks. I've got global growth covered with a sleeve of three funds consisting of ANWPX, SMCWX and THOAX. All of these are long term positions with two of them having a sizeable capital gains tax bill to pay if I sold. Guess, I'll hold with what I've got.

    Are you not concerned buying at this time of year with the fund's capital gain exposure? According to Morningstar this is listed just short of 30%.
  • Hi guys!
    Skeeter: Good post, again. Love to read them.
    Ted: I thought you just bought a world or international fund a few weeks I wrong on that? Also, this fund is fairly new. What gives, big guy? If I remember, you always said you wanted a fund with a track record. We're not chasing here, are we? Not looking for a fight.....just saying. Also, FIDO had a webinar this week about the 4th quarter......unimpressed. Duke took some notes again, so here goes. Their four (4) picks: Industrials, Health, Tech and Finance. They are strong and will stay so you have time to get in. Stay away from Telecom, Energy, Staples. The best areas to be in with rising 10-year bonds: Tech, Finance, Disc. Industrial. Eddie Yoon was talking healthcare is like a coiled spring ready to launch......his opinion is very bullish. He says it's cheap-----20% of GDP. And we're the innovators to the world buy now it has about a year's lag time. Also, Energy P.M....also talked U.S. growing production---60 thousand barrels per month. He is bullish on MLP's. On tax reform, cycles best area, along with small and mid caps. For 2018, tech outlook is still a buy on its margins and profits. Materials also a buy as world economies heat up. Market at fair value. They call it a buy. It's about earnings and they're good. Also, Thursday, I added to FSPHX. If it goes down more, will add again.
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • @Puddnhead: I said I was buying MSOPX as soon as I had enough in dividends, and I not chasing performance I want more international exposure.
  • About 15% of my self managed portfolio has been in DSENX. I decided to start moving some of that money to the International (Europe) fund, DLEUX. I started the process last week.

    DSENX has made me a believer in the Shiller CAPE method. I've done well with the domestic fund. Though I told myself I would give the newer fund some time to prove itself, I decided to jump in sooner than later. The CAPE value method seems to work, at least when we are in a value market. My thought here is there is more value right now in Europe than the U.S. I plan to keep moving from domestic CAPE to the European model until the 2 are closer to 50:50.

    FWIW, from their website, the 4 sectors DLEUX is invested in as of the end of the 3rd Q.

    Consumer Discretionary
    Consumer Staples
    Health Care
  • edited October 2017
    Sold my last chunk of PJP and decided to exchange it for FSPHX. In that portfolio the health care fund I already own PHZSX I can't add to since it is institutional shares that I bought while at ML . Pudd, I also saw the video conference Fido held in which Yoon spoke, and liked his medical devices emphasis ( I know the manages a select fund in that sector) since i added an etf fund IHI this year. The Fido fund does have a fine record. We do seem to have some similar funds Pudd.
  • @MikeM, I have invested with DESUX several months ago and it has hold its own comparing the DSEEX. At Fidelity, the institutional shares required $5K minimum. The domestic market is moving up due to the expecting tax reform (lower corporate rate) to pass this year. I prefer oversea market with better valuation basis and they are in the early cycle of improving economy.

    @jlev, which indicators from Dash of Insight you follow that you found reliable?

  • Hi slick!
    I have also signed up for equity perspectives on 11-2 with Josh Berger of Wellington Management.....and Municipal Bonds on 11-1. I don't know if you saw them. Thought they might be interesting. If I do catch them, I will start the November thread on them.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. Sven and Jlev: I also follow Dash.....just the weekend post, though.
  • edited October 2017
    @Sven ---

    >> I have invested with DESUX
    [[assume you mean DSEUX]] several months ago and it has hold its own comparing the DSEEX. At Fidelity, the institutional shares required $5K minimum.

    With a $50 fee, no? I also show $100k min for Fido - ?.

    I did buy some DLEUX, ntf.
  • @davidrmoran, I stand corrected for the right trading symbol. For tax-deferred accounts the minimum is $5K plus the $50 transaction fee. The $100K is for taxable accounts. Certainly this is not a tax efficient vehicle for taxable accounts.
  • dig it, shoulda figured that out, sorry; typical of fido
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