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Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Winter Reporting ... Market Swoon Updates

edited March 2 in Off-Topic
I had to start a new thread as the other thread ran out of available character space.

Being a retail investor and student of the market I like to share my thinking along with my positioning (and holdings) from time-to-time.

As of market close November 1st Old_Skeet's stock market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed the week with a reading of 142 indicating that the Index is overvalued based upon the metrics of the barometer. The yield on the US10YrT moved fom 1.8% down to 1.72% as Treasuries gained in value while their yield fell. I'm finding that the yield on the 500 Index is listed at about 1.9%. With this, the yield advantage remains with stocks. The valuation for the Index moved from 3023 to 3067 for a gain of about 1.4% as shorts began to cover their positions during the first part of the week before short volumes began to turn upwards towards the end of the week. It will be interesting to see in the coming week(s) if the Index can continue its upward march with the short volumes increasing towards the end of the week. It seems some investors are looking for a pullback.

For me, I'm opening November at about 2% heavy in stocks and chose not to rebalance from recent strong upward stock market movement. Generally the 4th and 1st quaters have historically offered up the better returns for stock investors. Plus, I'm thinking that yearend capital gain distributions from many of my equity funds will perform an automatic rebalance of sorts as I take all dividend and capital gain distributions in cash being in the distribution phase of investing (retirement). My three best performing funds, for the week, were DWGAX +2.29% ... SMCWX +2.15% ... and, LPEFX +2.10% which are found in the growth area of my portfolio. Notice all three have a foreign tilt.

Thanks for stopping by and reading.

Trailing comment ... Here is a bit of news that I picked up in my Sunday evening reading that supports the shorts. Freight and Rail Traffic Slows 8% in October ... https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/freight-railroad-traffic-plunged-8-end-october

Wonder what our FOMC wizards will do now? Remember, a year ago they were on a march to increase rates. Thus far this year they have cut three times. Will more rate cuts follow? My thinking ... Perhaps. For me I'll be watching my risk on assets more closely. Remember, though, GM has been on strike for better than a month.

Now a link that supports the bulls. From Momentum Monday it is titled "Stock Market Hits All Time Highs as Nancy Pelosi Creeps Closer to Presidency."

https://howardlindzon.com/momentum-monday-stock-market-hits-all-time-highs-as-nancy-pelosi-creeps-closer-to-presidency/
>
As of market close November 8th Old_Skeet's stock market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed the week with a reading of 143 indicating that the Index is overvalued based upon the metrics of the barometer. The yield on the US10YrT moved from 1.72% up to 1.94% as Treasuries lost value while their yield gained. I'm finding that the yield on the 500 Index is listed at about 1.89%. With this, the yield advantage now favors the US10YrT over the S&P 500 Index. However, from a long term capital appreciation perspective go with stocks. The valuation for the Index moved from 3067 to 3093 for a gain of about 0.85%. I'm also finding that short volumes which receeded in the previous week have now moved upward during the week as some investors continue to look for a pullback. And, although the Index marched ahead for the week, in it's value, it's breadth reading deminished as there are less companies trading above their 50 day moving average this week over the previous week, or so. So, it seems breadth support has now started to wane. The question, for me, is ... Will this continue?

For me, I trimmed (sold) a little of my risk-on exposure during the week as I'm thinking the Index is now on a "sugar high" in hopes that a trade agreement will soon be signed with China. I'm still invested within my asset allocation model; but, with a defensive tilt as I favor (dividend paying) value over (capital appreciation) growth. My three best performing funds, for the week, were FDSAX +2.41% ... HWIAX +2.07% ... and, TEQIX +1.52% which are found in the growth & income area of my portfolio. I've got about twice the amount invested in value than I have invested in growth. From a domestic to foreign mix I'm currently about 65%/35%.

Your comments are welcome as this keeps the thread "alive" and from getting burried deep within the stack. Perhaps, you have something you'd like to share about the markets or even your portfolio itself? Please know questions are also welcome.

Based upon the posting rules of the board ... Without Comments ... the thread will be left to "die" and will not be continued. However, a monthly posting, of the barometer, might be considered, going forward, if there is an expressed interest, for such, coming from fellow members.

Thanks for stopping by and reading.

TRAILING COMMENT: I have linked below an article that covers the author's thinking that there is more upside to come over the next six to twelve months along with how he believes one should play it. https://vantagepointtrading.com/stock-market-firmly-in-bullish-territory-heres-where-to-focus-swing-trading-efforts/

The Take Away ... "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in full-on bullish mode. A breakout to the upside has signaled the next wave to the upside. There are a lot of sectors looking good right now. That means a lot of opportunities. The metals, and associated stocks, are a good place to look right now. I would also focus on technology, biotech, and industrials. Materials are on the verge of breaking out, so now is the time to look for the stocks that are leaders (already breaking out) in that sector."

For me, in the near term and after capital gain distribution season is over, I'm going to expand a couple of equity fund positions. One being a small/mid cap position, another being one of my emerging market funds; and, yet another being one of my good equity dividend paying funds. The residual from my yearend capital gain distributions will go into fixed income.

Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
«13

Comments

  • edited December 2019
    Following is an excerpt from an article @Old_Skeet quotes in his report:

    "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are in full-on bullish mode. A breakout to the upside has signaled the next wave to the upside. There are a lot of sectors looking good right now. That means a lot of opportunities. The metals, and associated stocks, are a good place to look right now. I would also focus on technology, biotech, and industrials. Materials are on the verge of breaking out, so now is the time to look for the stocks that are leaders (already breaking out) in that sector."

    My thought - The positive projections for the metals and materials are encouraging. I’ve seen a strengthening in PRNEX lately, but over the past 2-3 years it’s whacked me over the head pretty well. I’m nothing if not consistent. So I continue to allocate 10% to the “real assets” sector as I have for the last 20-25 years. Currently: OPGSX, PRNEX, PRAFX

    While inflation’s been subdued over the past 2 or 3 decades, I view a possible resurgence as the biggest single financial threat to retirees. I’m paying for insurance against rampant inflation coming back by owning that sector. Other areas of my portfolio amply compensate for whatever damage the real asset sector inflicts.

    Let me hasten to add:. I tend to rotate the 3 or 4 funds held in the Real Assets section, buying when something looks cheap and selling after a run up. So, OREAX which I recently dropped was quite profitable for a few years. That $$ went into PRAFX. And I recently sold OQGAX - spreading the $$ around in the remaining 3 funds. It was up around 17% YTD if memory serves.
  • edited December 2019
    Hi @hank. Thanks for making comment. Below is an update for the week.

    As of December 6th Old_Skeet's stock market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index closed the week with a reading of 140 which indicates, based upon the metrics of the barometer, that the Index is presently overvalued. Remember, a higher barometer reading indicates that there is more investment value in the Index than a lower reading with a neutral reading (fair value) being scaled at 150.

    As long as viewers comments are made updates will follow. This is because I'd rather respond to a comment over just posting updates that bumps the thread to the front of the stack. In this way, I can not be accused, by other posters, of promoting my own thread over their thread.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

    Old_Skeet

  • Overvalued market - for sure it has been stretched. Job data from last Friday got the market going again. Will an agreement be made between US and China in order to start the manufacturing sector since it has been trending downward for several quarters? Otherwise we are letting the cash position to build.
  • Sven said:

    Overvalued market - for sure it has been stretched. Job data from last Friday got the market going again. Will an agreement be made between US and China in order to start the manufacturing sector since it has been trending downward for several quarters? Otherwise we are letting the cash position to build.

    By what measures is the market overvalued or stretched? I just don't see it. For the last 22 months the market has been in a consolidation pattern. Since the end of January 2018 the SPX has risen a mere 5.8% in 1.85 years - way below the long term average. Previous resistance now acts as very solid long term support.

    Honestly, I think the US market is undervalued and significantly higher levels ahead will surprise a lot of people. It's tech and agressive growth funds all the way for me for the next 10 years.
  • edited December 2019
    Hi @Simon,

    Thanks for your comment under this thread which leads me to ask an open ended question about your valuation comment. My question for you is found towards the end of this post. Below is my comment on how I reach valuation conclusions which I post under this thread.

    From my perspective, there are three ways to value the market. One is fundamental analysis, the second is technical analysis and the third is to use some combination of the two.

    With this, I'll cover the three main feeds of my market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index.

    Taking from fundmental analysis I use a blended earnings approach for the S&P 500 Index which consist of both TTM and forward estimates. In this way I'm giving credit for what stocks have done and then also for what they are expected to do. As we opened 2019 the blended p/e ratio was 16.6. Currently, it reads at 19.0. What does this tell me? It tells me that investors are now willing to pay more for corporate earnings today than they were as we began the year. So, from my perspective, the upward move in the Index was due mostly to p/e expansion rather than earnings growth. Simply stated earning have failed to grow enough to keep pace with upward valuation movement thus the ratio expanded.

    From a technical analysis perspective I look at the breadth reading as I look to see what percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 Index are trading above their 50 day moving average. For the year this number has ranged from a low of 10% to to a high of 90%. Its currently at a reading of 70%.

    The other thing that I look at is money flow. Which way is money moving and by what magintude. For the year money flow has ranged from a high reading of 84 to a low reading of 16. Its current reading is 57.

    There are other influences that are often times used (from time-to-time). Some of these are (but not limited to) short volumes, interest rates, sock dividned yields, other valuation metrics, etc.

    When combining the three major feeds into a scale produces an overall reading with each feed having an equal weight on the scale. All midpoints are set at 50 for each feed and when combined produce an overall barometer reading. The midpoint of fair value is set at 150 and works up and down form there. Moving upward on the scale indicates there is more investment value in the Index to include undervalue, oversold, extremely oversold barometer readings. Moving in the other direction form the midpoint indicates there is less investment value in the index which includes overvalued, overbought and extremely overbought readings.

    Based upon these metrics, as I write, the brometer scores the S&P 500 Index with a reading of 140; and, when scaled this falls in the overvalued range but just short of being overbought.

    So, how does Old_Skeet use the barometer? I generally like to invest new money into the market when barometer readings are high and accumulate money for future investment puropses when barometer reading are low. And, I also use the barometer to drive an equity weighting matrix that suggest equity weighting ranges within my equity allocation. When readings are high I am usually position towards the top end of my asset allocation range for equities and when barometer readings are low I am usually position towards the low range in my equity allocation. There are exceptions to this and allowed for based upon the calendar, interest rates and other factors.

    As quoted by Simon ... "Honestly, I think the US market is undervalued and significantly higher levels ahead will surprise a lot of people. It's tech and agressive growth funds all the way for me for the next 10 years."

    So, @Simon ... Please explain how you analize the market thus posturing your belief that the market is undervalued as you so believe it to be. How did you determine the market to be undervalued? Please know I'm not saying you are wrong ... I'm wanting to know how you derived at your undervaluation belief.

    Cordially,
    Old_Skeet

  • @Old_Skeet, I value your opinion a lot. Thanks for your summaries over time. Question I have is that how do you account the affect of corporate buying their stock on overall stock market performance in your barometer?
  • edited December 2019
    Hi @kings53man.

    Thank you for your question concerning corporate buybacks.

    Corporate buybacks usually effect both stock prices and corporate earnings. Thus, they are a means companies use to increase investor equity.

    With this, all three feeds of the barometer would be effected with corporate buybacks. The earnings feed since it is comprised of both TTM and forward estimates would reflect buybacks. The breadth feed would be effected as strong corporate buyback activity could and most likely elevate stock prices pushing them above their 50 day moving averages. In addition, this would also effect the money flow feed (generally by raising it) through buying activity in the market.

    With this, corportate buyback activity is automatically baked into barometer readings.

  • I, too, seek to learn from @Old_Skeet's market commentaries. Sometimes I'm confused because from where I sit, he refers to "higher" and "lower" in counter-intuitive ways. But the substance is always meaty and meaningful.
  • edited December 2019
    Old_Skeet's market barometer, which follows the S&P 500 Index, as of Friday December 13th market close finished the week with a reading of 138 which indicates that the Index is currently overbought based upon the metrics of the barometer. For the week short volumes in the Index increase from last week's 47% of the trading volume to 52% this week. With this, it seems, some investors are looking for a pullback.

    In commenting @Crash's comment concerning counter-intutitive ways. The barometer was designed to help me determine when the better times are to put new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio. This is not to be confused with organic growth which takes place as the economy and corporate earnings grow ... over time ... so do ... in general ... stock prices. I'm thinking that this is what @Simon was referring to in his comment which I invited him to expand upon last week.

    As quoted by Simon ... "Honestly, I think the US market is undervalued and significantly higher levels ahead will surprise a lot of people. It's tech and agressive growth funds all the way for me for the next 10 years."

    I too, believe in organic growth in the capital markets. This is the primary way Old_Skeet has grown his portfolio through the years. The other way was to be a smart buyer. In short words ... buy the dips and traughs and accumulate cash when asset values are high. And, then wait for good buying opportunitities when stock market pullbacks come. Then put this held cash to work as better asset prices prevail.

    With this, I remain invested based upon my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.

    Thanks again for your comments and questions.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

    Old_Skeet
  • thanks for the update. as always, great stuff.
  • Hey @Old_Skeet. Thanks for posting. I was curious can you please tell me what periods during 2019 would the barometer have told you to buy? The reason I ask is that I found myself waiting for equities to sell off in the early part of the year and thus remained a bit too heavy in cash . I was at 60% equiities vs. My target of 70%. In retrospect i should just have DCAed into my funds . Thx
  • edited December 2019
    Hi @MikeW,

    Thank you for your question concerning the better times, according to Old_Skeet's market barometer, to have put new money to work in the S&P 500 Index.

    Thus far this year there has been only one week when the barometer reflected that the Index was extremely oversold. That was for the weekending on January 4, 2019 with barometer reading of 183 with an Index value of 2532.

    Thus far this year there has been seven weeks where the barometer scored the Index as undervalued. They were as follows: Weekending January 11, 2019 with a reading of 157 and an Index value of 2596 ... weekending May 24, 2019 with a reading of 155 and an Index value of 2826 ... weekending May 31, 2019 with a reading of 158 and an Index value of 2752 ... weekending August 2, 2019 with a reading of 160 and an Index value of 2932 ... weekending August 9, 2019 with a reading of 157 and an Index value of 2919 ... weekending of August 16, 2019 with a reading of 157 and an Index value of 2889 ... and, weekending August 23, 2019 with a reading of 160 and an Index value of 2851.

    Thus far this year there has been a total of ten weeks where the barometer indicated the Index closed the week at fair value.

    Thus far this there has been a total of 16 weeks where the barometer indicated that the Index closed the week with an overvalued reading.

    Thus far this year there has been a total of 11 weeks where the barometer indicated that the Index closed the week with an overbought reading.

    And, thus far this year there has been a total of 5 weeks where the barometer indicated that the Index closed the week with an extremely overbought reading.

    Barometer readings are recorded on the last market day of each week.

    Again, thank you for your question. I hope the above information is helpful.

    Old_Skeet

  • edited December 2019
    @_Old_Skeet
    thankyou Sir

    we don't really have a crystal balls. I do believe we maybe at near late cycles but recessions may not take place for at least another ?? 9-12 months according to several PUNDITS [whom are usualy 50% right at time]

    We did add more VTI today and added new positions in vanguard 2045 lifecycles few days ago

    continued to build more bonds in Mama's retired portfolios and added new monies to FBND at fidelity
  • edited December 2019
    @johnN
    You noted: "maybe at near late cycles but recessions may not take place for at least another ?? 9-12 months according to several PUNDITS [whom are usually 50% right at time]

    >>>I've proven to myself and our household over 40 years that I/we too are capable of being correct with profitable investments 50% of the time.
    In spite of requests over the years and providing investment records, we've never been invited to the Barron's Roundtable group.
  • Until the Fed stops printing money you can kiss goodbye a recession anytime soon. Forget 9-12 months, think 9-12 years. It's a buy the dip market. Why fight the trend? The best time to buy is now.
  • edited December 2019
    Hi sirs @_Simon &
    @_CATCH22

    08 09 cycles feds printing so much money market still dropped like a rock market lost more than 55%


    If you have coupe of Billions in ur own portfolios (like Bloomberg trump obama) you can run as many round tables as you like

    Many pundits don't like small investors or business like ourselves but we make up the bulk of the portfolio monies
  • @johnN

    You noted: "08 09 cycles feds printing so much money market still dropped like a rock market lost more than 55%"

    Have you a valid link, to post here for review, of overly large money pumping by the Fed in 2008, prior to the market melt?
  • @johnN

    You first link is in reference to the "post" money pump after the market melt. These actions continue today with the BOJ having direct investment into their equity markets. The ECB also continues to "prop" some market sectors. 'Course, all of the central banks monies dumped into the markets was after the recognition that the full faith, trust and credit among the really large money houses was indeed build upon a house of cards and leverages way beyond anything that resembled common sense. A house of gamblers. The hangover continues from the damage done then and is why I've stated many times here, "That this time is different."

    As to the second link regarding Fed. actions in 2007; one would have to suspect that their data wasn't what they thought were normal data, but they did not foresee what was coming from the "Bad Moon Rising".

    Partial song lyric:

    "I see a bad moon a-rising
    I see trouble on the way
    I see earthquakes and lightnin'
    I see bad times today"

    I will not add further to Old_Skeets thread here as this travels past this thread subject. If one chooses to expand this subject; a new thread should be created.

    Regards,
    Catch
  • @Old_Skeet.... thanks so much for providing such a detailed and thoughtful response. It really helps to see you break out the different market barometer readings across the entire year. I had assumed incorrectly that there were only a few weeks where your barometer would have indicated a buy signal. But actually there were 8 weeks. So you only buy equities if there is a oversold or undervalued reading?
  • edited December 2019
    @MikeW,

    Continuning my comment on your question about the better times for Old_Skeet to be a buyer of equities.

    Generally, I put new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio when the barometer reflects extremely oversold, oversold or undervalue conditions exist in the Index. The barometer reflects that there were 18 such weeks, thus far this years, that were the better times for me to have been a buyers of equities. Naturally, if I have a full allocation to equites I generall pass on making buys unless the markets are extremely oversold, or oversold, (as measured by the barometer) and this is when I'll give consideration to opening an equity spiff position.

    Going the other way when the Index gets overbought, or extremely overbought, is when I'll close an equity spiff position and if the blended P/E Ratio is twenty or above I'll give some thought to trimming my equity allocation. Some may remember I opened an equity spiff position in late summer (August) and then closed it about three weeks later (September) when the Index became overbought. Some investors term this type of investing to playing the swing. There are many investing strategies used within my portfolio. Spiff buying and selling is one of them.

    Thanks again for your question. I hope there is a take-away for you from my comments.

    Old_Skeet

  • Ok thanks very much Skeet for providing this description. It is helpful. If you sell off a set of funds around year end and raise a significant amount of cash will you still wait to redeploy the assets into equities until your barometer shows oversold or undervalued?
  • edited December 2019
    Old_Skeet's market barometer as of Friday December 20th market close reflects that the S&P 500 Index, based upon its metrics, is extremely overbought with a reading of 126.

    Interestingly, as the Index climbs in value so has the daily naked short volumes. Last week the naked short volume was 52% of the total trading volume and this week it was 64%. With the rise in the short volume percent, over the past couple of weeks, there seems to be some strong investor thinking that a pullback might be soon on the horizon.

    From a yield advantage perspective the US10YrT closed the week with a yield of 1.92% vs the yield for the 500 Index was found at 1.84% so, this week, the yield advantages goes to bonds.

    In addition, I'm finding that better than 80% of the stocks within the Index are trading above their fifty day moving average.

    With the extremely overbought barometer reading, the increase in the short volumes, along with 80% of the stocks within the Index trading above their 50 day moving average I'm thinking that the market has begun a peaking process. When it begins to pullback is hard to say.

    In addressing @MikeW's question concerning accruing and deployment of cash within my portfolio. My cash allocation area consist of three parts. They are as follows: A CD Ladder at 8% of the portfolio, money market mutual funds at another 8% and demand cash at 4%. This totals 20% which is the neutral weighting for me in my cash area. Since, we are in the mutual fund capital gain distribution season I'm expecting the cash area to grow upwards to about 22%. This will leave me about 2% cash heavy with money to be invested somewhere within my portfolio. Since, the barometer indicates that stocks are extremely overbought and to maintain my asset allocation mix of 40% income and 40% equity I now need to buy in the income area of my portfolio as I am equity heavy. Stocks have had a good upward run since their August lows. This has resulted in me becoming a little equity heavy. I have the Index being up by about 13% since mid August.

    Generally, I'll rebalance when the income or equity areas moves + (or -) two percent form their neutral allocation. For me, this is 40% income and 40% equity while I generally let the 20% cash allocation float. So, my demand cash could range form 0% to 8% depending on how the income and equity areas bubble. Overall this would mean the cash area could float between 16% and 24%.

    Anyway ... This is how Old_Skeet rolls.
  • edited December 2019
    Not much has changed from last week through this weekending barometer readings (and reporting) as the barometer produced a reading of 126 for both weeks indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely overbought based upon the metrics of the barometer. If I had an open spiff position (special investment) in the Index I would have closed it by now because of valuation and the low barometer reading. The goal with my spiffs are to buy low and sell high thus making profit off the margin. My barometer helps me do this to determine when the better times are to buy and to sell. Remember, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. The highest barometer reading for the year came for the week ending January 4th at 183 (extremely oversold) with an Index valuation of 2532. As of this report there has been a 708 point (year to date) gain in the Index resulting in about a 28% gain not counting dividends.

    Some interesting comments. The naked short volume in the Index remains elevated at a weekly average of 67% of the total volume ... money flow remains strong but seems to have peaked ... there is a slight yield advantage going to the US10YrT at 1.88% vs. the Index at 1.84%. In addition, a little better than 80% of the stocks continue to trade above their 50 day moving average.

    This leads me to believe that the Index is working on a topping out process; however, when a pullback will be forthcoming is hard to say. With this, I have no equity spiff positions engaged at this time; and, I remain invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity.

    Remember, though, we are currently in the part of the calendar where historically most of the stock market yearly gains take place. That being the 4th and 1st quarters of each year.

    Unless something changes over the next couple of days there will be no year ending report that follows.

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.

    Old_Skeet
  • edited December 2019
    Thank you sir

    We added more to VDE VHT QQQ and vanguardlifecycle2040, schwablifecycle2040 yesterday well as X-steel corp bonds and [ytm 7.5% but rated B]

    Currently maybe heavy weight in portfolio (upwards of 20s% on bonds) so prob buy more and equities from now on


    Don't know there is a recession coming but economy and data so strong presently...think end 2018 there was a small recession, has been upward since new yr


    If china usa play nice w each other could be large upsides..

    We also have uncertainties in 2020 election

    Hope we have a good 2020
  • @Old_Skeet: On your message above you said, ( The naked short volume in the Index remains elevated at a weekly average of 67% of the total volume .)
    What would an average short % be of total volume ?

    Thanks for your time, Derf
  • edited December 2019
    Hi @Derf,

    Thank you for your question regarding the average naked short volume for SPY.

    For the past thirteen rolling weeks the average weekly naked short volume is 53%. The highest weekly percentage took place for the week ending 12-27 at 67% and the lowest weekly percentage took place for the week ending 11-1 at 43%. The mid point computes to be 55% which is above the thirteen week rolling average of 53%. The range between the high and low (percent wise) is 24%.

    It seems a good number of investors have been betting against this rally. And, from my perspective, this has helped the fall stock market rally with shorts having to cover their short position (from time-to-time) which has helped to push the market even higher as they cover.

    Skeet

  • @Old_Skeet. Very useful info. Thanks very much for sharing this
  • edited January 4
    Thanks to those that had questions and made comments. Below is this week's report.

    As we close the first week of the new year, according to Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index is extremely overbought with a reading of 126. During the first two trading days of the new year the naked short volume has dropped considerably causing the weekly average to drop from last week's average of 70% to 60% this week. From a yield perspective with the US10YrT being listed at 1.79% and the S&P 500 Index being listed at 1.82% there is a slight yield advantage for the stock Index this week. This is because some investors sought cover in bonds (running their prices upward) due to recent US military action in the middle east. Generally, as bond prices rise their yields fall.

    In closing, there is not much more to write other than stocks have had a very nice run for the 4th quarter of 2019. This was mostly due to P/E expansion which went form a reading of 18.6 to 20.2 (Blended P/E Ratio) as investors were willing to pay more for corporate earnings as we moved through the quarter. For me stocks are now expensive and I rate the Index a hold due to valuation. With this, I plan to stay invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity as this is an all weather asset allocation for me.

    Thanks for stopping by and reading.

    Wishing all ... "Good Investing."

    Old_Skeet

    Trailing comment: I received a question from @johnN that was in my inbox. The question was what was my total return for 2019? For the master portfolio it was 17.07% which is the combined portfolio for all accounts owned. Naturally some accounts performed a little different form one another with the range being from a low at 16.24% to a high at 19.54% depending on the account, its holdings and asset mix. Overall, my asset allocation is 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity for the master portfolio.

    My three best performing funds for the year were LPEFX +39.99% ... NDVAX +33.27% ... and, KAUAX +32.94% all which are held in the growth area of my portfolio. The three worst performing (not counting money market funds) were GIFAX +6.87% ... TSIAX +7.55% ... and, PONAX +7.62% which are held in the income area of my portfolio. My best performing money market mutual fund was PCOXX at +2.22% which is held in the cash area of my portfolio. For the growth & income area the three best performing were EADIX +28.50% ... ANCFX +27.60% ... and, DEQAX +25.01%. For the income area the three best performing funds were were found in the hybrid income sleeve and they were FISCX +23.88% ... AZNAX +19.73% ... and, FBLAX + 17.89%. As of 12/31/2019 Old_Skeet (and wife) owned 51 mutual funds which are spread over five accounts. Old_Skeet is an accredited individual investor.
  • @ Old_Skeet: Thank you for update & answering my question on naked short volume.
    Have a good weekend, Derf
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