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Where to now St. Peter?

Howdy folks,

Viking just cancelled our Med cruise for next month. That's good because even with trip insurance, you're not covered for fear or even pandemics. They offered 125% of monies paid to them in a voucher OR 100% cash back. Sorry but we're taking the cash, TYVM.

NBA cancelled the remainder of their regular season and the NCAA banned fans from March Madness and frankly, they'll end up having to cancel the Dance. Rats, my Spartans are a 10 - 1 fav. Oh well.

What we have to do, each an every one of us, is to see into the future of an economy without [email protected] interaction. That's the world that we'll wake up in after the Great Depression. Yeah, I said it. This won't be a recession, but a global depression where the quality of life declines for the majority. Look around you and notice that the economy is screeching to a halt. Look at Italy. They just ordered everything nationwide closed other than grocery stores, pharmacies and bank. Do you realize what this does to the service industry? These workers don't have sick leave and don't have savings and are going to truly suffer. Oh, yeah, Donny's wants to cut the payroll tax (that supports SS and Medicare) for people that won't be working you blithering idiot. How about no school and the kids are home but mom and dad both work?

My shopping list for the future includes those retailers that have mastered online shopping - Walmart, target, Home Deport, Kohls, Amazon. Many peeps are going to be forced to buy stuff online including groceries that they have delivered. They'll find out they like it. Think about the percentage THAT NEVER GO BACK to a brick and mortar store. You can bury most of the B&M chains as well as sit-down restaurants and movie theaters.

The world is changing before our eyes.

and so it goes,

peace,

rono


Comments

  • Ouch. But I fear you are correct. I was thinking of a gigantic governmental response, whether it's the US alone, or together with others, like a Marshall Plan, which rebuilt Europe after the War. How might that be accomplished?
  • Hi Mark,

    T. Friedman was on this morning and outlined 6 steps. Get Bezos to deal with PPE, Gates to deal with the vaccine. Drop all tariffs to zero. Have Don, Nancy and Chuck got to Camp David and NOT LEAVE until they come up with a fiscal stimulus plan. Squeeze the Sauds to increase production. - can't remember 6, but basically take a WWIII approach like you suggest - full bloody mobilization.

    Alas and alack, none of it will happen. Hell, Don won't even declare a National Emergency that would free up billions because it wouldn't look good on his resume'.

    and so it goes,

    peace,

    rono
  • edited March 12
    Thanks Rono. Sorry to hear of your trip cancellation. I’m actually airborne on way back from Charlotte / Hilton Head areas. Folks at airport seem amazingly calm. Very few wearing masks. (But dead afraid to cough in public). I wondered if the flight home would even go. Plans to see an opera in Toronto in May don’t look too promising. So sad for all the hard working talented athletes and performers.

    Feeling kind of clueless here at the rapidity of seemingly everything falling apart. Fleck still likes AU - and the miners. I hold a tad plus what’s in PRPFX. But Geez - down another $50 early today and the miners lost around 8% yesterday alone.

    The Bush crash starting in 2007 led to about a 50% decline in equities - a bit less at home and a bit more overseas as I recall. My holdings fell 21% in 2008 as I was aggressively buying down. Today, older and more cautious, the loss on a 50% bear market should be about 15-20% for myself. That’s the kind of loss equity investors should be able to tolerate every so often. Pay-back for the good times.

    I don’t know if the Trump crash will be as bad as the Bush one was. Much different circumstances - and starting from a grossly overvalued market IMHO. But my gut tells me we won’t snap back from whatever this one is in a few years like we did before either. (And the likes of Hank Paulson and Tim Geithner are nowhere to be found.)

    Personally - nibbling at PIEQX a non N America developed index. I think it will beat the pennies cash now pays over a few years. Some European markets down 10% today. End of March I’ll rebalance everything, including hard hit PRNEX. Debating adding a small spec in miners today.
  • The only thing I can think of which will permanently turn around the global economy, financial markets and life in general is a vaccine. Even the whiff of a rumor of the possibility of a vaccine will cause markets to skyrocket.

  • From comments above it appears 3 nails driven into coffin & 1 removed ! I'll go along with Pop Tart on this one. To much money to be flushing down the toilet for this to continue ?! Algorithms out of control or just plain fear running wild ?!
    I will admit it's harder to keep buying on the drops, at least for me, but holding to much dry powder , buying looks to be a good idea at this time.

    Different strokes for different Folks , Derf
  • @PopTart- Hello again, and I hope that all is well at your end. I completely agree with you re vaccine.

    Take care- OJ


  • edited March 12
    @Rono- Yes sir, you must have been listening to our dinner conversations. Things are going to take one hell of a long time to stabilize, even with a vaccine, and many business models that have been taken for granted for centuries are going to have to pass the test of future existence. Given that the presidential candidates are all old men with lots of exposure due to campaigning I wouldn't be totally shocked if the next president isn't any of the three current contenders.

    For example: at the most basic employment level, in-home services of one kind or another- who will want workers coming into their homes, and how many of those service workers will want to go into homes with unknown health situations?

    Like you, I expect home delivery of everything from groceries on up to radically increase. But even handling delivered parcels will make folks a little nervous, yes? How do you know who might have sneezed on that bag?

    Public transit (which I and my wife use constantly)?

    Theater, concerts/opera/symphony/sports events?

    Our national health "system"?

    Good luck on all of this.

    OJ
  • It could be tough finding that vaccine or treatment when the genius in charge spends his time disparaging and gutting the various agencies and professionals needed to find solutions and add calmness to the dissemination of credible information. I wish he and all his advisors would just get out of the way but I know that ain't gonna happen. I can't wait to find out where the blame will be laid besides them hoax tossing democrats and fake media folks.
  • edited March 12
    Hi sir
    Maybe south pole little warmer now

    No people closed to you within in 6 ft
  • edited March 12
    It will probably be useful to keep an eye on China to help get a sense for how deep and lasting this downturn will prove to be. I read a report this morning indicating some of the factories in their hardest impacted regions are already starting to reopen. Is this a lull in the storm or just propaganda or is it actually a turning point for them? It's too soon for me to be convinced the worst case outcome will come to pass.
  • @Old_Joe : Given that the presidential candidates are all old men with lots of exposure due to campaigning I wouldn't be totally shocked if the next president isn't any of the three current contenders
    If there are candidate vaccines in the shadows, I guess they can use the candidates as the older male demographic in the human trials.
  • @Anna- sounds fine to me!
  • edited March 12
    whom ever next democrats VP moniation crucial; Others may not make it [Don, Michael, Joe nor Bernie- w/ next Swine or Covid/influenza].
    Beto Camala 2020!
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