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nibbling away

Quick update. I noted that I was trying to buy additional shares of BIAWX yesterday but didn't because (1) $50 transaction fee and (2) four-hour hold time to talk with TD Ameritrade. Got through this morning, after a 40 minute hold. Two notes. First, they have a callback queue but disabled it because so many people were leaving stacks of callback requests that the system couldn't keep them straight. Second, they were very agreeable about waiving the transaction fee.

That purchase complements yesterday's tiny buys in each of my other TD funds: FPACX, MACSX, MAINX, RPHYX, GPROX.

No idea of where "the bottom" is (Leuthold estimates the market is 4% overvalued though bears do blow through "fair value"), but I figured my managers are good and could use the money. In an vaguely parallel vein, I also made contributions to my local food bank (their shelves are getting bare, too), One Tree Planted and a local small business initiative to provide coffee for first responders and medical personnel. That's 'cause Tom Hanks told me to be a helper!

David

Comments

  • Hi David. I'n not familiar with TD Ameritrade.
    Question: You couldn't perform this transaction online?
    Thank you.
  • edited March 17
    Hi, catch.

    I'm at TD because they bought Scottrade, which I used because they had a convenient local office (and wasn't Schwab).

    BIAWX has a transaction fee at TD, which the online execution would have triggered. I decided to call and request a waiver because (a) they should be anxious to be really helpful about now and (b) their soon-to-be robot overlords at Schwab don't charge the TF.

    David
  • Visited my 91 year old father-in-law who was moved to a hospice care facility today. That was difficult.

    Through the market volatility the past couple weeks we have been adding to our positions in PRWCX and AKREX.
  • edited March 18
    Old_Skeet continues to buy in the growth & income area of my portfolio. With this I reduced the cash area by about 1% and raised G&I by 1%. I've decided to temporairly move my asset allocation to 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity in hopes of playing the rebound (in steps) as it comes. In following the money flow feed which is one of the barometer's data feeds it seems money is starting to retrun as the MFI went from 26 to 32 today.
  • edited March 17
    Thx...bought / open positions in Bac at opening and also added BAC preferred stocks

  • If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.
  • edited March 18
    Lawlar said:

    If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.

    Maybe @Simon will check-in and let us know when the Great Bull Market of the next several decades he’s long been forecasting will ignite / lift-off again.

    Current Market Direction:



  • I'm curious where all these various estimates of a bottom come from. We're still above 2016 levels in the market, and does anyone think that the current economic outlook is rosier than in 2016? (That's not a rhetorical question. Is there a case for that, that the outlook for corporate earnings is better now than in 2016?)
  • expatsp said:

    Is there a case for that, that the outlook for corporate earnings is better now than in 2016?)

    You could try digging around on this government data site.

    Or, here's one news account that makes me think the answer to your question is no.
    Corporate profits rose ever so slightly in the fourth quarter of last year after three consecutive drops in the first part of 2019. Heading into 2020, analysts were optimistic that earnings would continue to rebound.
    Then the coronavirus outbreak happened. And now, all bets are off.
    For sure corporations won't be buying back their shares this year with cheap borrowed money to jack up the price for executive compensation packages.
  • @WABAC - SBUX begs to differ on the not buying back their stock part. I grant that it might not be with cheap borrowed money but who knows. And really, could there be a better time if a company is looking to juice its earnings/share figure?
  • edited March 18
    expatsp said:

    “We're still above 2016 levels in the market ...”

    On the last trading day of 2016, the Dow closed at 19,762 .

    Currently, the Dow sits at 19,185 .

    Remains to be seen if the Dow finishes the day still below 2016 level. Always possible they’ll shut this market down early.
  • Mark said:

    @WABAC - SBUX begs to differ on the not buying back their stock part. I grant that it might not be with cheap borrowed money but who knows. And really, could there be a better time if a company is looking to juice its earnings/share figure?

    Depends on their balance sheets. Maybe SBUX is in good shape. M* didn't have it's debt/equity ratio listed when I looked just now. Buffet is certainly in a position to buy back his shares with cash.


  • The Leuthold folks track a bunch of metrics. Some target the distance to "normal" and others target the distance to "fair value."

    The fair value note released this week looked at price/cash flow, price to book, dividend yield and three flavors of P/E. The implied drop to reach the median level maintained over the past 70 years ranged from -1 to -22%, depending on the metric.

    Bear markets end up with valuations somewhere around the bottom quartile of the range. So ROE-based P/E is normal at 18.3 and low at 15.1. At the beginning of this week, the market's ROE-based P/E was 18.35 which might translate to "not wildly overvalued but way back the trough in a bear."

    For what that's worth, David

  • hi David. I do not understand "but way back the trough in a bear." I understand that there is still room for bad news -- or something. Just never heard it expressed that way.

    What else can be way back the trough? Is this a common phrase in some part of the country?
  • hank said:

    Lawlar said:

    If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.

    Maybe @Simon will check-in and let us know when the Great Bull Market of the next several decades he’s long been forecasting will ignite / lift-off again.

    Current Market Direction:



    hank said:

    Lawlar said:

    If we’ve entered a bear market, they tend to be drawn out miserable affairs, where every time you think it can’t go lower, it goes lower.

    Maybe @Simon will check-in and let us know when the Great Bull Market of the next several decades he’s long been forecasting will ignite / lift-off again.

    Current Market Direction:



    That's a cheap taunt. You should be ashamed of your arrogance.

    No-one could have forecasted this catastrophe. No, not even me.

    It's sanctimonious people like you who destroy this discussion forum. Your sarcastic comments cause people to leave for good, which is just what I am doing now. I'll be joining dtconroe on Morningstar for some civilized discussion.

    Eventually, this forum will collapse as you all drop dead one by one because there will be no new members to take your places.

    Goodbye.

  • edited March 18
    "No-one could have forecasted (sic) this catastrophe. No, not even me."

    @Simon: Perhaps not. But those of us who have been around awhile and paid attention were well aware that it was just a matter of time until something came along to cause this. And you'll please note the lack of commentary regarding "surprise".

    Good riddance to your know-it-all arrogance. No, you won't be missed. Not at all.

  • No-one could have forecasted this catastrophe. No, not even me.
    Must be his first rodeo.
  • edited March 18
    Come on Simon. You make comments like,
    "Stock prices are going much higher - higher than you can ever imagine."
    and
    " the bull market will last another 15 years",
    those aren't arrogant statements? By the way, ironically you made these comments close to the top of the market, Feb.15th.

    I'd like to see you stick around, but if someone points out statements you made that were so misleading at best, just say,
    "man I was wrong".
  • @MikeM- it takes a man to say something like that.
  • Hi, WABAC.

    Simply typo. Or braino. "way from the trough in a bear."

    The key is that bear markets tend to blow past fair value on the downside. The trough, or low point, of the market tends to be when stocks are selling at a substantial discount to their fair value. so, I was just trying to say we are near fair value but nowhere near the substantial discount that Leuthold uses in their metrics.

    Hope that helps, David
  • Hi, WABAC.

    Simply typo. Or braino. "way from the trough in a bear."

    The key is that bear markets tend to blow past fair value on the downside. The trough, or low point, of the market tends to be when stocks are selling at a substantial discount to their fair value. so, I was just trying to say we are near fair value but nowhere near the substantial discount that Leuthold uses in their metrics.

    Hope that helps, David

    Yes it does. Thank you. I have an amateur interest in local phrases.

    Been a while since we really oversold to the underside though. Late 70's, or early 80's are what real capitulation looks like to me.

    Given the Fed support since the dot.com bust, I don't think we really know what fair value is.

    Your mileage may vary, of course.
  • @WABAC; :Given the Fed support since the dot.com bust, I don't think we really know what fair value is.
    +!
    Derf
  • Agreed: "Given the Fed support since the dot.com bust, I don't think we really know what fair value is."
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