Howdy folks,
This past Friday I started to 'slowly' move money overseas. Major accounts are at TRP and I moved from Treasuries cash to PRELX. It seemed to be the most non-US cash type account available there. If anyone has a better suggestion, I'm all ears.
I cannot envision any future scenario where this ends well. Powell and friends have done a great job dealing with their side of the problem but the disfunction in Washington and looming fall election in the face of the Second Wave of COVID-19 - it is like looking into a can of worms.
I'm NOT disinvesting in the US and US companies but damn, I'm simply trying to cover my ass.
Oh, BTW, the kid is gonna get reelected this November. The four trustees on our Township Board ran unopposed - from either side of the aisle. feh. We've had a balanced budget for around 15 years in spite of falling tax revenues and revenue sharing from the state; we get along; and, normally (without the virus) there are flowers on the bridges. duh. Government can work.
and so it goes,
peace and flatten the GD curve,
rono
Comments
The foreign countries have dealt with COVID-19 and we have not. Their economies will reflect this in the coming months - and alas, so will ours. Next winter is starting to look more and more like the Dark Ages - here in the states. Europe and Asia have already figured this out and we're dealing with the Stars and Bars.
America will get beyond this but it's not going to be for a while. Cripes, there won't be any fall sports until the fall of 2021.
And the only solution being offered is QE on steroids [are there any left or did the Admin buy them all up?].
Now how in God's name do you figure the dollar is going to like all this?
Lastly, on a more sober note, I'm moving money overseas ON THE MARGIN. This is a MINOR strategic move in keeping with my play in the metals.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
If you haven’t looked at Michigan roads lately ....
I believe that the answer might well be nowhere as dear leader proclaimed his intent to withdraw from the WHO. Apparently the fact that not everything, good will, can be bought no matter how much money you have.
Hank - ouch. [rono being MDOT retiree].
It's not a handout and it is an investment in America. Hell, 90% of people would rather work.
It's called demand side economics. Raising and indexing the minimum wage. Universal healthcare and education. All of these would add enormously to the aggregate demand..
This really isn't rocket science for decision makers that aren't being bribed.
rono
please note my township is floating a 3 mil tax increase for fire and EMS. We chose November 2020, 2 years ago because it would have the largest turnout. This way we'd see if the residents want to pay or not for the level of service they're going to receive.
Trustee rono
We are not like Russian nor China where we can forced mandated quarantined/locked downs. In those countries you may be put in jails if you don't comply. Herd immunity is maybe the new norms because we dont comply. Think most folks may need to hunkered up, fall and winter 2020 maybe bad because of influenza and covid19 double team. Most influ vaccines are only 10-20% effective; covid19 vacc may follow same patterns.
Having said that maybe good term to go more stocks if you think long term and not near retirement. In 5 years we won't even remember what is covid19...but If I was retired probably 50-60% bonds, 20s% cd and 20s% stocks...hate to loose all harsh earned monies in this environment. Think what Mr. Rono do is absolutely correct, playing very little in EM but I suspect its a very small % of portfolio
We did add more gld and slv last wk
One bond turned over/called yesterday and we transferred all those funds into vanguard star, vpccx and Vanguard2045
Huh?
True, some brave Governors like Michigan’s Whitmer followed the early CDC advice and imposed stringent lockdowns & closings - only to be confronted by gun-toting lawbreaking Trump supporters hell-bent on “liberating Michigan” as Trump instructed.
But at the highest levels of government we’ve tried nothing to curtail the spread of the virus. Quite the opposite, our leader has ridiculed folks wearing masks and lied about the seriousness and true extent of the pandemic. And he’s encouraged his followers to follow his ignorant example and to ignore the advice of even his own health experts.
“Tried everything”? Give me a break.
Even with the rolled back and reopenings after 4 wks, covid-19 will run rampage again. May need to quaratine shut down few more wks et and protect the most vulnerable population
@johnN Please provide data links.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2017-2018.html
Last year was excellence 37-47%,
One family physician told me 20s%effective 2019 and 18% 2018...should have find sources before referring words of mouth
In reality prob high 20s_50s% effective
dependence on age group and type. One year I forgot which year was only low 20% effective many patients decided against vaccination next year was not a good idea
I believe you should have put it on the ballot 3 years ago . That way it would be okayed this year!! That's the way it works in my area. Keep pushing until it passes.
Good luck on your float, Derf
for sure
Neither of these would seem to apply to a COVID-19 vaccine. So ISTM that guesstimating based on influenza vaccine attributes is a futile endeavor.
The virus has shown itself to mutate slowly, generally in unsuccessful ways. Though one mutation, G614, did make it 10x as contagious as the original Asian D614 strain. It is this European strain that has been making its way throughout most of the US.
As near as I can tell, traditional production of vaccines using eggs is not even an Operation Warp Speed finalist: "'There’s no sort of old-style technology in this mix,' [former FDA commissioner] Gottleib said. “I’m surprised that either Sanofi or Novavax, someone who is developing [a vaccine using] an older approach … wasn’t selected. '”
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/sanofi-chose-a-proven-program-over-speed-its-covid-19-vaccine-hunt-ceo-says
If one is still going to analogize with influenza vaccines, it would seem better at least to start with higher effectiveness figures. "While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine." That is, when the virus doesn't mutate away from the vaccine.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm
Posts of this nature on other media such as Twitter and Facebook, frequently unchallenged and endlessly repeated by equally ignorant viewers, are causing much of the damage that this country suffers, either because the original poster is too lazy to properly document the facts, or just doesn't care because he likes the "thrill" of seeing his name out there.
Pathetic. Stern note to follow.
I hope you know that old editors' telegram (meaning it was to the ed)
FUCK YOU
STRONG LETTER TO FOLLOW
You need to look at the fund @rono moved into. It’s not an equity fund. It’s a local currency (unhedged) emerging markets bond fund. A very dicey proposition. So, while equities may have been a great buy in March, the dollar was still rising. So it wasn’t a good time to move to foreign currencies. Two different investments. Plus, if you know @rono’s investment history, he owns enough gold and miners to buy both of us - twice over. GDX +51% past 13 weeks / OPGSX +55% same period. YTD numbers on those are similar.
Also - a gross oversimplification to reference March or any other time as “no brainer.” Only with 4 months now elapsed could one make such an audacious assertion. A lot of smart investors here. Some were buying in March and some were frozen like deer in the headlights. But I do not recall anyone referencing that period at the time as a “no-brainer.” My brain was working just fine. I assume yours was.
Hi Derf. Hope you're doing well. Thanks for the kind words. We conducted a community survey in Jan of 2019 and the peeps were in favor of the millage 60/40. We have the lowest taxes in Mid-Michigan and are the only township around without a supplemental millage. We talked long and hard and all agreed to go ahead. We WANT the input from as many of our residents as possible and that's why November 3, 2020 is the nut. We're already looking at a record turnout. I'll keep you informed but I'm cautiously optimistic.
take care and stay safe,
rono
@starchild . Indeed, there has been a great buying opportunity since the market crashed. duh, I thought that was the way it worked. When stocks go down you buy and when they go up you sell.
The problem has been and still is - just WTF are you buying. There are a lot of great companies that are doing well and will continue to do well. I love them and own a few. However, there are also a lot of dead rats that fill the index funds and all the equity funds that most people drool over. Sorry but I don't want to own garbage. You can buy all the airlines, casinos and cruise lines you want but me? Thanks No. Will they eventually recover? Sure. But when? I have no interest in having dead money sitting.
Cripes, I've been buying equities since this started but I have my positions and am still looking to cover my ass.
You really have to come back down off the Fed Liquidity High and get a grip of what is going on with the real economy. Sooner or later, the actual reality of the situation is going to catch up with the market and I don't see that ending well. If you do, go long and stay long.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono