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10 mo SMA Method Applied To DODIX & DODGX

edited March 2014 in Fund Discussions
Please find performance below for applying 10 mo simple moving average (SMA) method to two classic funds Dodge and Cox Income DODIX and Stock DODGX, instead of the exchange traded funds in the original post Flack's SMA Method.

I was reluctant to try this approach for classic mutual funds because when you trade say at Schwab, there is a one-day settling period on funds and usually redemption fees for trading in under 60 or even 90 days. But if you own an account directly with D&C, like I do, you can literally exchange D&C mutual funds on-line (simultaneously selling and buying) at the day's closing NAV. Furthermore, D&C charges no trading fee, nor is there a redemption fee. So, game on.

Since these funds have a history longer than exchange traded funds, the analysis also addresses Investor's request to look back further in time.

Again, if DODGX is above its 10 mo SMA at month's end, then the method is all-in DODGX the next month. If DODGX is under its 10 mo SMA, then all-in DODIX instead the next month.

Here are timing plots and portfolio growth performance, as well as a look at running draw down:


Corresponding life-time performance::


And finally, performance over 218 5-yr rolling periods and 242 3-yer rolling periods:


The lifetime absolute return is extraordinary. But what continues to impress me the most is protection against downside risk that the method offers, in addition to the simplicity of implementation. Note that it may not beat the fixed portfolios every single period, but it sure seems to help avoid losing money.

I have always been told that you can't time the market and beat it. That may be true. But if your goal is to minimize downside risk while still being in the game for some potential upside, I'm becoming more convinced that dynamic risk parity approaches like Flack suggested are the way to go.


  • Charles,

    What database did you use for this analysis?

  • edited March 2013
    Again, I see that the results are largely skewed by late 2008/early 2007 results. That is why I asked you to produce rolling 3 and 5 year results (of each rolling period) of the strategy.
  • edited March 2013
    I wonder whether this is a data mining effect. The main relative gain occurred, I believe, because of the combination of three factors: There was a very long almost uninterrupted uptrend in non-technology stocks in DODGX from 89 to 07 (they survived even the horrible tech crash of 2000), then there was an approximately 2 years long catastrophic fall after 2007, and then another long uptrend. Once one knows these parameters, one can propose many methods to win. But will these methods work in a more sharp downturn like the one in 1987? In a much longer downturn? In a secular bear market when the overall trend is down? I would guess that in different cases, different strategies will be required, and we do not know which one to choose unless we know in advance how the market is going to behave.

    I am just playing a role of devil's advocate; my first reaction was that I should implement this strategy immediately, my second reaction was that I would not like to do it in my taxable account, and then I decided to ask the questions formulated above.
  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @retire55: I actually use the M* database of monthly returns embedded in Steele Mutual Fund Software. But the same info is downloadable for free on Yahoo Finance, at least for these two funds. Here, to make it easy, I'll post the monthly ratios used in the analysis below, if you want to analyze yourself. They reflect total monthly returns.

    A bit more here...Clifford Asness at AQR Funds is also a champion of momentum, especially when coupled with value (Ref: Value and Momentum Everywhere). I'm in middle of assessment, but suspect one reason Flack's SMA method works so well for DODGX is because D&C is a value house. So, it may be benefiting from both value and momentum effects, or essentially a combined value and momentum strategy.

    Here are the monthlies used:

    12/12 1.00145 1.02713
    11/12 0.99928 1.00756
    10/12 1.00874 0.99384
    09/12 1.00660 1.03007
    08/12 1.00368 1.02898
    07/12 1.01494 1.01914
    06/12 1.00450 1.05551
    05/12 1.00075 0.92970
    04/12 1.00756 0.98781
    03/12 0.99924 1.02574
    02/12 1.00915 1.04498
    01/12 1.02103 1.05695
    12/11 1.01422 1.01123
    11/11 0.98752 0.98721
    10/11 1.01184 1.11373
    09/11 0.99529 0.90878
    08/11 0.99531 0.92889
    07/11 1.01187 0.96161
    06/11 0.99606 0.97628
    05/11 1.00955 0.99005
    04/11 1.01208 1.03797
    03/11 1.00161 0.99173
    02/11 1.00813 1.03652
    01/11 1.00326 1.03073
    12/10 1.00000 1.07861
    11/10 0.99594 0.98894
    10/10 1.00654 1.04228
    09/10 1.00658 1.09993
    08/10 1.00746 0.94027
    07/10 1.01090 1.07183
    06/10 1.01359 0.94098
    05/10 0.99830 0.90643
    04/10 1.00855 1.01226
    03/10 1.00863 1.06647
    02/10 1.00086 1.01989
    01/10 1.01224 0.98060
    12/09 0.99913 1.02342
    11/09 1.01148 1.05111
    10/09 1.00712 0.97130
    09/09 1.01627 1.05035
    08/09 1.01189 1.04330
    07/09 1.02919 1.09391
    06/09 1.01530 0.99986
    05/09 1.02348 1.07481
    04/09 1.03441 1.14552
    03/09 1.01022 1.08873
    02/09 0.98291 0.86721
    01/09 1.01015 0.90197
    12/08 1.06028 1.03037
    11/08 1.00541 0.90960
    10/08 0.96957 0.81790
    09/08 0.96165 0.86481
    08/08 1.00507 1.00678
    07/08 0.99495 1.00945
    06/08 0.99001 0.89053
    05/08 0.99602 1.00971
    04/08 1.01107 1.06225
    03/08 0.99499 0.96783
    02/08 0.99900 0.96210
    01/08 1.01215 0.94552
    12/07 1.00000 0.97564
    11/07 1.00611 0.97201
    10/07 1.00615 1.00401
    09/07 1.01140 1.02185
    08/07 1.00941 0.99576
    07/07 1.00105 0.96396
    06/07 0.99583 0.98464
    05/07 0.99585 1.03535
    04/07 1.00522 1.03400
    03/07 1.00000 1.01351
    02/07 1.01268 0.98392
    01/07 1.00212 1.02014
    12/06 0.99789 1.02207
    11/06 1.01285 1.01252
    10/06 1.00647 1.02932
    09/06 1.00979 1.02883
    08/06 1.01323 1.01243
    07/06 1.01115 1.00635
    06/06 1.00000 1.00045
    05/06 1.00000 0.98288
    04/06 1.00000 1.02523
    03/06 0.99556 1.01654
    02/06 1.00222 0.99611
    01/06 1.00223 1.03984
    12/05 1.00561 1.01713
    11/05 1.00225 1.03109
    10/05 0.99776 0.98225
    09/05 0.99221 1.01022
    08/05 1.00785 1.00757
    07/05 0.99776 1.03607
    06/05 1.00562 1.00631
    05/05 1.00794 1.02579
    04/05 1.00800 0.97414
    03/05 0.99206 0.99456
    02/05 0.99887 1.03005
    01/05 1.00455 0.97727
    12/04 1.00803 1.03950
    11/04 0.99771 1.05885
    10/04 1.00575 1.02348
    09/04 1.00346 1.02929
    08/04 1.01643 0.99902
    07/04 1.00709 0.96996
    06/04 1.00356 1.02572
    05/04 0.99410 1.00745
    04/04 0.98148 0.97801
    03/04 1.00465 0.99041
    02/04 1.00703 1.01955
    01/04 1.00708 1.03952
    12/03 1.01073 1.06068
    11/03 1.00479 1.01691
    10/03 0.99523 1.05602
    09/03 1.02068 0.98968
    08/03 1.00859 1.02553
    07/03 0.97605 1.03684
    06/03 1.00000 1.00895
    05/03 1.01458 1.07925
    04/03 1.01355 1.07065
    03/03 1.00123 0.99947
    02/03 1.00996 0.97656
    01/03 1.00250 0.97044
    12/02 1.02561 0.96677
    11/02 1.00644 1.07880
    10/02 0.99360 1.03607
    09/02 1.01693 0.90280
    08/02 1.01319 1.02338
    07/02 1.00664 0.91090
    06/02 1.03010 0.95349
    05/02 1.00967 1.01357
    04/02 1.01685 0.96834
    03/02 0.99441 1.04258
    02/02 1.00845 1.00802
    01/02 1.00709 0.99822
    12/01 0.99436 1.02820
    11/01 0.99579 1.08162
    10/01 1.01569 1.01100
    09/01 1.00863 0.90729
    08/01 1.01164 0.98130
    07/01 1.02232 1.00823
    06/01 1.00149 0.98049
    05/01 1.01054 1.03054
    04/01 1.00000 1.06198
    03/01 1.00606 0.98638
    02/01 1.00917 1.00238
    01/01 1.02347 1.02091
    12/00 1.01752 1.08799
    11/00 1.01618 0.99701
    10/00 1.00651 1.03174
    09/00 1.00327 0.99567
    08/00 1.01325 1.04828
    07/00 1.01173 1.01733
    06/00 1.02401 0.93499
    05/00 0.99488 1.02134
    04/00 0.99322 1.02450
    03/00 1.01201 1.11141
    02/00 1.01215 0.94968
    01/00 0.99827 0.95029
    12/99 0.99655 1.04710
    11/99 1.00000 1.01445
    10/99 1.00347 1.01384
    09/99 1.01051 0.95584
    08/99 0.99651 0.98581
    07/99 0.99652 0.97222
    06/99 0.99653 1.04542
    05/99 0.99141 0.99883
    04/99 1.00345 1.11701
    03/99 1.00520 1.05750
    02/99 0.98296 0.98908
    01/99 1.00859 0.99977
    12/98 1.00518 1.00114
    11/98 1.01224 1.05047
    10/98 0.99133 1.07786
    09/98 1.01943 1.04612
    08/98 1.01071 0.86413
    07/98 1.00179 0.94808
    06/98 1.00721 1.00177
    05/98 1.01093 0.97329
    04/98 1.00549 1.01487
    03/98 1.00183 1.04764
    02/98 1.00184 1.05281
    01/98 1.00928 0.99472
    12/97 1.01316 1.01091
    11/97 1.00377 1.01551
    10/97 1.01533 0.96027
    09/97 1.01556 1.04678
    08/97 0.98656 0.97443
    07/97 1.03373 1.08081
    06/97 1.01408 1.04267
    05/97 1.00811 1.06607
    04/97 1.01440 1.03821
    03/97 0.98780 0.98111
    02/97 1.00204 1.00743
    01/97 1.00204 1.03636
    12/96 0.98990 0.98662
    11/96 1.01852 1.08620
    10/96 1.02532 1.01611
    09/96 1.01935 1.03114
    08/96 0.99785 1.03584
    07/96 1.00215 0.95778
    06/96 1.01330 0.98746
    05/96 0.99739 1.01235
    04/96 0.99396 1.03333
    03/96 0.99339 1.02248
    02/96 0.98096 1.01472
    01/96 1.00499 1.02450
    12/95 1.01342 1.01725
    11/95 1.01763 1.05161
    10/95 1.01190 0.96951
    09/95 1.01100 1.02320
    08/95 1.01371 1.01461
    07/95 0.99573 1.04010
    06/95 1.00760 1.01067
    05/95 1.04694 1.04317
    04/95 1.01438 1.02979
    03/95 1.00706 1.03217
    02/95 1.02740 1.04344
    01/95 1.01955 1.01860
    12/94 1.01020 1.01273
    11/94 0.99816 0.96180
    10/94 0.99724 1.02407
    09/94 0.98219 0.97126
    08/94 1.00178 1.04691
    07/94 1.02089 1.03647
    06/94 0.99713 0.97526
    05/94 0.99822 1.01837
    04/94 0.98945 1.01384
    03/94 0.97948 0.96162
    02/94 0.98096 0.97749
    01/94 1.01598 1.05711
    12/93 1.00495 1.01557
    11/93 0.99025 0.98937
    10/93 1.00326 1.00749
    09/93 1.00003 0.99256
    08/93 1.02299 1.04208
    07/93 1.00828 1.00000
    06/93 1.02350 1.00613
    05/93 1.00083 1.02983
    04/93 1.00756 1.01161
    03/93 1.00243 1.02377
    02/93 1.02202 1.03442
    01/93 1.02251 1.01815
    12/92 1.02171 1.01267
    11/92 0.99914 1.04021
    10/92 0.97975 1.00730
    09/92 1.01087 1.02519
    08/92 1.00760 0.96139
    07/92 1.02867 1.03104
    06/92 1.01840 0.97757
    05/92 1.02041 1.00932
    04/92 1.00625 1.03018
    03/92 0.99405 0.97590
    02/92 1.00968 1.03248
    01/92 0.98016 1.00347
    12/91 1.03890 1.09160
    11/91 1.00885 0.93688
    10/91 1.00893 1.01075
    09/91 1.02257 0.98517
    08/91 1.02294 1.01871
    07/91 1.01584 1.03654
    06/91 0.99826 0.93515
    05/91 1.00551 1.06065
    04/91 1.01208 1.00745
    03/91 1.01128 1.00374
    02/91 1.01214 1.06619
    01/91 1.00943 1.05644
    12/90 1.01503 1.03487
    11/90 1.02500 1.08515
    10/90 1.01069 0.98052
    09/90 1.00778 0.94231
    08/90 0.98395 0.90150
    07/90 1.01050 0.98755
    06/90 1.01731 0.98619
    05/90 1.03143 1.09220
    04/90 0.98643 0.96992
    03/90 1.00183 1.01990
    02/90 1.00095 1.01858
    01/90 0.98221 0.94644
    12/89 0.99987 1.02878
    11/89 1.00646 1.01757
    10/89 1.02654 0.97951
    09/89 1.00555 0.98229
    08/89 0.98162 1.02985
    07/89 1.01968 1.08453
    06/89 1.03161 0.98932
    05/89 1.02734 1.03499
    04/89 1.01789 1.04223
    03/89 1.00708 1.01362
    02/89 0.98729 0.96981
  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @Investor: OK, I wound back the clock...we are August 2008. Lehman files for bankruptcy next month. Here are the results of the method...similar, if not better, returns to a buy-and-hold strategy while reducing downside risk. Dynamic allocation still impresses me:



  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @andrei: Hi Andrei. DODIX only goes back to '89, but let me look for something comparable. I too am interested in how the method performs through crash events like '87. Gotta run for now, been sitting at the computer all day...back soon.
  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @Charles:

    For ANY set of existing set of data one may invent a strategy which would produce enormous results (back testing). The question is whether this strategy is going to work in the future.

    I understand that a combination of value and momentum may beat the market, but usually the outperformance is very small, it accumulates over many years. Here the main effect is due to a one-time lucky decision during the market crash. This strategy underperformed DODGX during almost 20 years before the crash of 2008, though admittedly it provided a smooth ride. But using it in a taxable account could lead to a substantial after-tax underperformance. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to try something like that - and I guess funds like ARIVX or FPACX are using their own home made rules which tell them when to have 50% in cash and when to buy.
  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @andrei: Sir, not trying to beat the buy and hold on the pure risk-on equity, trying to catch much of the upside while avoiding much of the downside. I think a more realistic expectation is to beat in absolute returns the traditional 60/40 fixed portfolio. But honestly, for me, the biggest attraction of dynamic allocation is protecting against the downside while delivering healthy returns. Andrei, the strategy articulated by Flack (and I am finding several others) is very simple. As far as I can tell, nobody is trying to over correlate or data mine. I'm offering you the results right off the spread-sheet, no fudging.

    I actually believe I've come up with a telling graphic that will help all of us better assess potential benefit of this method. Stay tuned...
  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @andrei: OK, I've just added a so-called "drawdown" graphic, which plots decrease from previous peak of the portfolio versus time. In this case, I can see why D&C share holders (like me) are still shell-shocked. For nearly 20 years, DODGX never drew down more than 20%, until 2008. Then, down 60%. The dynamic allocation method? It never drew down more than 13.7%.
  • edited March 2013
    Dear Charles,

    Thanks a lot for this intriguing post. Unfortunately I am new to this discussion, but I see that it goes back in time for quite a while, e.g.

    In that discussion Investor gave the same argument that I did: The main conclusions seem to be related to the catastrophic event of 2008, and the possibility to avoid this event by proper timing. If you consider any 5 year interval involving 2008, the same method would work. In different circumstances, it might not. For example, it was not very efficient and steady in the long interval form 1989 to 2001 as compared to 60/40, right?

    In these discussions Flack's SMA Method and the name of Mebane Faber appears quite a lot (I am honestly trying to educate myself). Publications of Mebane Faber look very convincing, so much so that when I have read them about a month ago I started looking whether I can invest in accordance with his ideas. Just like scott, I discovered his ETF, AdvisorShares Cambria Global Tactical ETF (GTAA). What a sobering experience! It exists for more than 2 years, and during this time he managed to lose about 1%, whereas the general stock market (VTI) during the same time gained 30%.

    It does not prove anything, but it suggests that interesting ideas which look great when backtested may or may not help their proponents to make money. In fact, it is mathematically inevitable that some strategies must make a lot of money to some people by pure chance. This is an old debate, I do hope that a silver bullet can be found. I wonder, however, why GTAA behaves so poorly if Mebane Faber is such a great market timer?

    What I said does not necessarily apply to your amazing observation and Flack's SMA Method. I am just trying to understand whether the statistical evidence is strong enough, and I do not know the answer.

    Thank you

  • beebee
    edited March 2013
    I haven't posted in a while...helping renovate my 90 year old mom's family apartment...lucky for me it's in Hawaii.

    Thanks for all your research, tables and graphs.

    I believe integrating an "income" fund and an "equity" fund is a prudent way to invest. Whether its with a 200 day moving average strategy, an asset rebalancing strategy, or something else. These kinds of thoughts lead me to invest in PONDX over the last few years and share its performance with this board.

    You're onto something here...keep up the great work. Love reading your threads.
  • Charles,

    Thanks for the information!
  • Thanks for the post. I do agree that moving averages can probably save you some serious draw downs and there seems to be a lot of data that backs that up.

    Of course, you have to be ok with being chopped up during certain periods. In order for a moving average system to do it's intended job, you have to stay committed during times when it's under-performing the B&H market.
  • edited March 2013
    Howdy Charles,

    First, thank you for all of your efforts with data and charts.

    I'm arse high deep in a project(s) and have had too really filter my time allotment to "other" areas of life; although I must continue to read through MFO posts and monitor news/data relative to our investments to stay in the investments thinking loop.

    As many here at MFO are aware, there are more methods available to perform techinical measurements than at least I have the time and/or apptitude to study and learn. My observations (limited study) of the technical areas always bring me back to thinking/study relationships with reading books about any given subject. If I select 10 authors on a given subject, it is likely that 1 author will write and offer the text/data in such a fashion that really hits my "sweet spot" for understanding. Not unlike folks who many of us may encounter who are brilliant in a given field; and may be teachers/writers, but who do not have the ability to properly pass along their knowledge and/or way of viewing or thinking about the subject matter.

    'Course there are all of the other added circumstances that relate to investing, too.

    1. one knowing and understanding their own limitations.
    a. I know and understand when I have hit a wall of perception to grasp a particular concept. I have discovered this numerous times, especially studying methods used in technical areas of investing. I discover and read about a method to find that apparently I do not have the brain power to fully grasp the particular methodology.

    2. liberal "arts" knowledge. This is a tough area to define, as it is different for everyone. Generally accepted I suppose, aside from one's own area of skill(s); is what do you think you know and understand about everything else in the world. Any knowledge should be of value at some point in the future, which starts with the very next day of investing.

    3. fundamental aspects of investing. Well, there exist pure fundamentals here and there; but the current culture of this area has become and remains a most perverted area since December of 2008. Currently, the main perversion modifiers are central bank actions and machine trades. The revised and new normal would include both of these.

    4. one's emotion and passion towards the preservation of their money. Emotional investing sure may get in the way of clear thinking, especially when blending with the passion side.

    5. the machines, the competition. The machine trades ( reportedly about 70% of market(s) activity) are a most serious consideration, too. There is not a clear and concise way to deal with this aspect. One must also consider that there is little love lose among the big houses who battle and fight in this machine area to beat the other guy for bragging rights. Individual investors may well, at times; be standing on the sidelines wondering when do they get their turn in the musical chairs.

    6. talking heads and credibility. This area includes all talking heads, be they screamers on the television channels, internet blogs or the figure heads of central banks and states, et al (including me!). First, they make their case for this or that. The tough part of this for an individual investor is too attempt to understand the motivation of the person; as much of the talk becomes aspects of marketing an idea without giving away the secrets and unknown data available to that person or persons. Too much of the time we do not and never will have the real truths behind actions.

    7. the individual. One's habits are also a very powerful part of investing. Habits can be protective and positive. Habits may also be or place road blocks into one's pathway of change for the better. I offer that one's habits may be the most powerful force involved with investing; and one of the most challenging areas with which to adjust and/or change.

    8. It is about the money, eh? If this house was sitting upon a $5 million portfolio, our direction of investment travel would be different. If we threw (invested) a large portion of this money, knowing that 20% of the value may go bye-bye; we would still happily survive on the remaining $4 million. 'Course this is not our position here, nor our mindset. This is the area of what one has today, how much to invest going forward (during the working years) and how much risk/reward to put in place within various investment sectors. Our house knew from day one that there would not be any provided health plan if retiring prior to age 65, and that the available pensions would be very modest. We understood that we had to do "other things" to provide for our monetary futures via common sense household budgets and investing. Thirty five years later the plan is functioning as expected.

    I've wandered every direction with this, sideways related to technical analysis.
    I have no conflict with Flack's method or other's methods that have been noted over the years. Attempting to mix all of the above personal considerations finds me leaning today towards more influence from the technical side. But, the technical must still be and have influence from the above factors. A 10 month or 200 day SMA is of benefit, IMO; but likely must be tempered and measured from shorter time frames, too. Many so inclined in this area start with 10, 50, 100 and then 200 day averages to attempt to find a continued trend in a given area. Relative strength indicators (RSI's at 21, 14 and 7 day periods) are also part of this; although oversold and overbought indicators can remain in place longer than one would "guess" .
    I do not believe that long SMA's would have been of any value during the short term crash in Oct., 1987. This short period was a strange bird event. This linked chart FCNTX, March 2007-March 2009 is for one of our holdings during part of this period. If there is a period with which to "fiddle" with for outcomes (using tickers of your choice), this would be my choice. Some of this period found very large swings; as well as the majority of the "pros" still noting buy points and that all was well; which lends the best of techinical indicators and "talk" for one's decision making. I chose FCNTX, as at the time; this fund remained the "best" of our bunch for "holding" gains. The other 11 equity funds we held at the time were not doing as well, except PTTRX (10% of the portfolio). Our portfolio obtained its full value on Halloween Day, 2007. It was beat and ripped every whichway for the next 9 months. June 15 of 2008 found 87% of the equity portfolio sold and monies moved to either MM or stable value funds within various accts. Small amounts of FCNTX and VPMCX remained and were ridden through the "train wreck" to be sold in mid-2009, with the monies placed into HY bond funds.
    Technicals and many of the above noted factors all played into this "luck"; if to call it that. My father had been diagnosed with terminal cancer early in 2008 and passed away the day Lehman Bros. crashed and burned. I was obviously very consumed by my father's status; and the technical triggers "again" (June shorter term, 50 day; other factors) tripped our house's sale of eqiuity positions. You may note that the 200 day on the chart looks backward relative to the 50 & 100 day; and would have eventually set a trigger point.

    FCNTX, a few reference points:
    Dec 31, 2007-Mar 17, 2008 -11%
    March 17, 2008-May 12, 2008 +11%
    May 12, 2008-June 16, 2008 -4.3%
    June 16, 2008-Sept 15, 2008 -8.8%
    Sept 15, 2008-Oct 16, 2008 -25.6%
    Oct 16, 2008-Mar 2, 2009 -17%
    I will note too, that I watch CEF and GDX for reference to the precious metals. Using many technical looks, especially GDX has been beat to death. So, is this a deep value play today; or is more value coming? Not unlike the "value" that continued through much of 2008 and became a real value on March 6, 2009.

    An aside from a few days ago: I saw that the French market moved +2.4% on one day. I don't think this has anything to do with French economic fundamentals, but with big, hot money making a buck. Europe still has its economic butt in a thin sling.

    A vast amount of presentations regarding many technical aspects/training await you at "YouTube". Any number of suitable search wording will find many areas of study.

    Lastly, I submit that investing one's own money to sustain a positive forward movement via limiting losses and the value of long term compounding resulting from capital preservation, is one of the most challenging areas one may encounter in a lifetime.

    Thank you again for your time and efforts here, at MFO. I must be away; as the "to-do" awaits me, and hopefully you were able to tolerate and understand my jibber-jabber.


  • Howdy bee,

    A thank you to you, too; for your thoughts and notations regarding technical aspects of investing and how they trigger and/or affect your choices.

    Take care,
  • edited March 2013
    WHEN I heard the learn’d astronomer;  
    When the proofs, the figures, were ranged in columns before me;  
    When I was shown the charts and the diagrams, to add, divide, and measure them;  
    When I, sitting, heard the astronomer, where he lectured with much applause in the lecture-room,  
    How soon, unaccountable, I became tired and sick;          
    Till rising and gliding out, I wander’d off by myself,  
    In the mystical moist night-air, and from time to time,  
    Look’d up in perfect silence at the stars.

    Title: "When I Heard the Learn'd Astronomer"
    From: Leaves of Grass - by Walt Whitmn



  • edited March 2013
    Reply to @catch22, Bee, Mindy et al:

    Thanks Catch! Very much appreciate the advice you are sharing. Miss your frequent posts and insight on the board. And look forward to when you've completed more of the to-dos. I did check-out some of the YouTube videos, but only ones I found seem like pitches from used-car salesman. (Like many fund advisors I suppose.) I've yet to assess the other indices, but I've read Paul Merriman's stuff recently which looks at interest rate and market breath. These would be a bit more complicated than Flack's KIS approach. I like the FCNTX tale. M* gives this silver star, $89B AUM fund "low risk" even now. Yet, it has experienced four drawdowns of 30% or more since 1972 (the year I met my high school sweetheart), including a 46% drop during last crisis. To those that could manage to put it in a closet for 40 years, it has returned 12.2% APR. Unlike say DODGX, it has returned to all-time high. Really liked the comments about the power of habits!

    Bee, miss your posts too and good to hear about your amazing mom. I've never been to Hawaii, but during these brutal 50 deg days here in central cost lately=), we've been thinking about visiting. Thanks for good words.

    Mindy, I grew up an amateur astronomer so really liked the poem!

    I'm just about finished with action items Andrei and Investor gave me...will post results separately. Thanks again.
  • Where is quick way to get the 10M SMA?

    I found quick summary for June 2013 at link below which includes iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury (IEF) and the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking (DBC), and Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU) which are all signaling cash.

  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @equalizer: Hi equalizer. I like Doug Short's material, although not crazy about AdvisorPerspectives website. For ETFs and stocks, SeekingAlpha has a momentum tab on the portfolio page, which includes 50 and 200 day SMA indicators, the latter being close to 10 mo. I think it was bee that suggested Bob's Mutual Fund Page, which tracks momentum for all funds. I find the 10 mo SMA feature on Schwab's chart page convenient and easy to use. All that said, I'm not aware of any freely accessible website that updates momentum for OE funds daily like SeekingAlpha does in real time for ETFs and stocks.
  • Reply to @equalizer: 10mo SMA is roughly 200day SMA (days are the days where market is open). If you use 200day SMA you will get very similar results.
  • Nothing new here as traders have been using various moving averages and with a 1001 filters to trade mutual funds since the 80s.
  • Go Mindy!

    Nuff said.
  • Reply to @Mindy: Please forward that to MJG.:-)
  • Reply to @Junkster: Hey, welcome back to MFO. I see you reclaimed your old handle back.
  • Reply to @Investor: Thanks, I figured since I said Hiyield007 was going on a posting sabattical until 2014 this would be one way to get around that proclamation. Plus, as of last week back around 25% in junk bonds (WHIYX) Will ramp up more tomorrow if the jobs report and risk-on bonds react favorably. Still have some in NFRIX and surprised the floating rate funds haven't received much mention as they have been the steadiest during the recent bond market rout. HFRZX has been more than steady in that sector hittting new highs. One reason I quit posting was more into stocks than funds the past few months but now just have an old standby I mentioned a few months ago - LGND.
  • Reply to @Junkster: I guess you are out of PONDX now. On the equity side you had WAFMX.
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @Investor: I am glad you brought that up. Somewhere in the archives I mentioned what would get me out of PONDX and that would be a 1% decline from highs. I used 1% because it had been in a tight rising channel for almost a year and there had been no drawdowns greater than 1%. Just as in junk (where I use 1% to 1.25%) whenever a tight rising channel fund falls out of its channel expect much more decline. Same thing with WAFMX. It was in a truly spectacular channel (for an equity fund) where its greatest drawdown in the past year had been something like 1.63%. So I used that as my stop. What hurt me there though was I had to eat an extra 2% redemption fee in a portion of my position. Normally I never ever invest/trade in a fund that has a 2 or 3 month redemption fee but I made an exception for WAFMX because its trend had been so peristent.

    I think it may be over for PONDX. Its success over the past many years was almost solely because Ivasyn had the foresight to purchase mortgage bonds, especially non agencies at ridiculously low prices at the height of the 2008/09
    panic. I can't think of what he can do for an encore.

    Edit: One of my pet peeves about mutual fund investing is sooooo much time and effort is spent on what funds to buy while almost no effort is spent on when to exit. I think every investor should have an exit strategy in place whenever they purchase a fund.
  • Reply to @Junkster: Thanks for the update and thoughts. I agree if you are buying a fund as a trading position, you should defined your exit as well.
  • Reply to @Investor: I was just getting ready to post. Anyway, when I am wrong I admit it and it looks like I was premature getting back into junk last week. I had thought a supportive stock market would put a floor under junk. It's hard sometimes to judge how the open end will be priced solely on the action of the junk ETFs intraday but I am exiting my junk at today's close. Keeping my small postion in NFRIX but that may go next week. What a carnage today in bondland.
  • edited July 2013
    Reply to @Junkster: Today is a low volume day so I would not read too much based on today's price action.
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