The Lonely Bull

hank

Just viewed Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week. Won’t link to it because there’s a running thread that someone updates weekly. And, also, wasn’t too impressed with the main guests - although Rick Rieder (Blackrock) is always fun and informative to listen to.

E-Gads the overall tone in all the media is so bearish - even with the S&P off more than 15% YTD and the NASDAQ down more than 20%. I won’t state an opinion on market direction remainder of the year. Will say I’m more optimist longer term than 90% of the “experts.” I always find it odd that folks prefer to buy equities when they’ve been red hot rather than after they’ve cooled down and gotten cheaper. There may well be a recession out there somewhere. But this baby’s been the most over-predicted recession I can ever remember. Likely, stock and bond valuations have already experienced some heavy “discounting” in the eyes of the storm watchers.

Psychology seems to go something like this: Dow falls 500 points from near 37,000 to 36,500 and a fella races in to “buy the dip.” A year later, Dow has fallen 5,000 points to 31,000 - 32,000 and now it’s something those (now reformed) dippers won’t lay a hand on.


Interesting Observation: “With bullish sentiment having averaged a reading of only 24.22% in 2022, it is below the previous runner-up and record low of 27.29% and 27.08% in 1988 and 1990, respectively. That low average is thanks to twenty weeks so far this year where bullish sentiment has been below 25%.”

SOURCE

Crash

I'm taking a page from your playbook, @hank. Incremental, small doses. Starting a position in NHYDY. Adding to PSTL. Both knocked down in a serious way. But some favorite webpages include ratings from analysts which tell me these two are screaming BUYS.

.....Discovered another prospect, too: ACGL. Arch Capital Group. Specialty insurers, out of Bermuda, but it's too pricey, just now. Looking for a bigger discount.

hank

I wouldn’t want anyone to stumble into trouble based on anything I said. Not qualified. And I don’t comment on others’ stock picks anyway. Randall Forsyth (citing mainly Stephanie Pomboy) is about as bearish as I’ve heard him on his return to Barron’s this week. Great read. That said, I gotta believe that even in a recessionary environment (which Forsyth more or less prophesies) there will be survivors. I have one pick I’m mulling over from this issue of Barron’s myself.

Funny lead-in this week from Forsyth upon his return. Has to do with Kim Kardashian becoming a high profile spokesperson for Private Equity investing:

Forsyth: “If private markets do get marked down one-to-two quarters after the public ones, as Citi says they have historically, that points to similar trouble for the former. I wouldn't shed any tears for Kardashian or any other A-lister able to get past the velvet ropes into private-equity funds. None are apt to be prowling dollar stores in search of ramen noodles, even if their PE holdings go to zero.”
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Nice correction below from @yogibearbull. Sounds like Kardashiam is more than just a “spokesperson” for private equity. Rather, she has launched a new fund that invests in such.

yogibearbull

Kim Kardashian's fund is SKKY Partners.
https://twitter.com/SKKYPartners
https://skky.com/

johnN

Hi Sirs (Crash Hank Yogibearbull) been dca weekly sp500 and xlf great long terms good vehicles... Can't go wrong w SPY and XLF)

Also 50 bucks monthly into bit coins btc-cash(BCHUSD) prob think sale once BTC get to 45 50k or so see how memontum turns in 12 24 MONTHS ....who knows may run up to 78k again w new bull cycles (may run 3 4 more yrs)... Also added lithium etf and SGML Chpt last wk. Musk think these will tripple in 4 5 yrs
Also dca monthly into TNA SPXL TQQQ

Maybe easier and more lazy way to do

Lots pundits saying we maybe near bottom 8th of fear/bear cycle run (last 7-9 months) hard to say. Price may not be cheaper in 3 months

Sometime no time to find good vehicles like you did weekly scalpings other wise/good finds will do more research.

Rumors on Wall Street say Hedge funds started to buy small caps etf last wk or so thinking new bull cycles emerging/baby bull born??!!! ... We will find out in 7-12 wks... If Feds pivoting ease Qt Oct meeting

Good luck.. Thank you for suggestions

Crash

@JohnN. It almost sounds as if you're operating your own mutual fund(?)

1. Choose securities adroitly, selectively.
2. Invest in a handful.
3. Leave it alone.

johnN

Yes sireee
-24 or 27% haircuts last downturns ( could not remember)
-17% now

Coming back slowly

Forgot added VHT tech also last wk


Friends also loaded ton slv gold 7d ago

hank

Interesting discussion. I’m as confused as anyone. No real answer except be careful. Don’t throw your entire wad at this thing because it could last years. Technically the S&P isn’t even in a bear market yet - if 20% down is the criteria.

I’ve liked alternatives for some time as an (albeit expensive) replacement for equity and bond funds in a portfolio. The ones I own are down, but as a group they’ve held up better than stocks or bonds. Slow is the word if adding risk (ie buying equities or real assets). Nobody knows how long the market drop will last or how far it will go. A good start to knowing that might be to try and get in the head of Jay Powell. He’s holding most of the cards at the moment, though many other forces (economic & political) could intervene.