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AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/23/22

For the week ending on 11/23/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (40.2%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (28.9%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (30.9%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -11.3% (high). Investor concerns: Inflation (high but moderating); supply-chain disruptions; recession; the Fed; dollar; crypto winter; divided Congress; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (39+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=847

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  • edited November 24

    For the week ending on 11/23/22, bearish remained the top sentiment (40.2%; high) & bullish became the bottom sentiment (28.9%; below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (30.9%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -11.3% (high). Investor concerns: Inflation (high but moderating); supply-chain disruptions; recession; the Fed; dollar; crypto winter; divided Congress; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (39+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar flat. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=8&scrollTo=847

    A little surprising how far stocks (and for that matter bonds). have come off their bottoms. But then the investing and trader boards seem to mirror the same bearishness. In this environment disbelief is the bull’s greatest ally.

  • 2022 has been an unusual year for the AAII Sentiment, a contrary indicator. The low-high ranges YTD are:

    Bullish: 15.84% (4/14/22) to 33.33% (8/18/22)
    Bearish: 27.54% (3/31/22) to 60.87% (9/22/22)
    Bull-Bear Spread: -43.1% (9/22/22) to +4.3% (3/31/22)

    The current Sentiment reading is fairly negative, but not as bad as it was in September (or, in April or June). However, Charles Rotblut of AAII sees the current situation much more optimistically (e.g. "new 2022 high for bullish sentiment" last week; he hasn't tweeted yet about today's readings).

    There has been a rush into guaranteed products* (Treasuries, CDs, stable-value/SV, m-mkt funds, etc) but that may be justified for now. My rule of thumb is to favor guaranteed products so long as their guaranteed rates well exceed the 30-day SEC yield of competing choices. This will change eventually.

    *Principal and interest are guaranteed currently or at maturity.
  • The Bull-Bear spread is -11.3% as of 11/23/22, so it is improving from Sept 22, 2022 (-43.1%) as you noted. Still learning on how to use this contrarian indicator.
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