Morgan Stanley's (MS) strategist Mike Wilson has been among the most bearish strategists. It is a tough life for bearish strategists on the Wall Street. Firms' sales teams can't make much money if their strategists are downright bearish. So, eventually, such analysts are either proven right, or are fired.
This is why MS Mike Wilson has been in the news so much.
But now he is flipping! He is still bearish but says that this rally has room to run, and then collapse.Twitter LINK
cites Bloomberg but that is behind paywall.
In other words … “keep your shorts on.”
“We believe it does not refute the very poor risk reward currently offered by many stocks given valuations and earnings forecasts that remain way too high, in our view.”
... "Outlook Uncertain."
OK, that's actual advice I can rely on!
Nice. ….. Wilson was featured during the pre-market hours on Bloomberg TV today.
But don’t write Wilson off yet. Wrong? Might just be early. I’ve heard this (bullish take) from enough quarters recently to give it some credence.
The SP500 was positive by over 80% since 1980, a smart analyst should realize that and be mostly positive. Making short-term forecasts is nuts and these experts should be challenged. The ones who interview them don't do it because they know they would not have a show.
Hmm … Tell me who makes correct forecasts 100% of the time. If it were a “sure bet” than wouldn’t everybody buy the same investments? Then 100% of us would outperform the market 100% of the time. This does not compute.
To the original topic - There’s a sizable body of market watchers who think we will soon see a bear market rally. Put another way - The theory is that longer term this is a secular bear market. But that first there will be a significant rally. I don’t know if that will happen. But it helps explain Wilson’s prediction as nicely capsulated by @yogibearbull in the OP.
Looks to me like it collapsed before it ran.