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Advisers love bonds, cash and value stocks, shun growth and gold - BofA survey

edited March 2023 in Fund Discussions
(seekingalpha.com/news/3945500-advisers-love-bonds-cash-and-value-stocks-shun-growth-and-gold-bofa?mailingid=30772207&messageid=2900&serial=30772207.61340&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=30772207.61340)

Among other highlights in the survey:
1) In stocks, 78% prefer Value (IWD) (VONV) vs. 12% who like Growth (IWF) (VONG).
2) Respondents are most bullish on Healthcare (XLV), 76% bullish, Energy (XLE), 73% bullish, and Financials (XLF), 67% bullish. They are most bearish on Consumer Discretionary (XLY), 51% bearish, Real Estate (XLRE), 44% bearish, and Info Tech (XLK), 37% bearish.

Let's test the experts YTD.
IWD(value) made 1.3%...IWF(growth) 8.4%
XLV -7%...XLE -2.9%...XLF 2.2% (the most 2 bullish by the experts lost the most)
XLY 10.7...XLRE 3.3...XLK 12.7%

The advisers="experts" were 100% wrong for the above. Pretty funny. I'm sure many believe in the above too.

Comments

  • Well to be fair the survey was taken to assess how managers 'intend' to invest moving forward and not how they were positioned. The part FD left off from Yahoo:


    "Defensiveness is in style among financial advisers, according to the BofA Securities annual Global Wealth & Investment Management Survey.

    Equity allocation (NYSEARCA:SPY) (QQQ) (DIA) (IWM) fell to 57% from 62% in 2022, the lowest level in the short six-year history of the survey. This time around, 372 Merrill financial advisers from around the country responded.

    Exposure to bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) (IEI) (HYG) (LQD) rose 3 percentage points to 27%, the highest recorded.

    "These shifts may continue: 39% said they are moving more into bonds, vs. 18% for equities, consistent with the average bond allocation from sell-side strategists hitting a 10-year high," strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in the survey note Wednesday. "We see long duration bonds (and long duration growth stocks) as risky given rate sensitivity."

    Cash (VMFXX) (SPAXX) allocation rose to 10% from 7%.

    "Just 26% plan to buy stocks with excess cash (v. 42% last year), while 29% plan to buy bonds," Subramanian said. "30% are happy to remain in cash. Cash return/dividend strategies are most frequently requested by clients (82%). We concur. We also prefer companies with self-funded growth (cash flow generators) to those that need to borrow to grow.""

    FWIW.
  • @FD - I also forgot to mention that your link doesn't work.
  • Pretty sloppy for a guy who is always not only on top of everything, but actually well ahead of everything... he didn't bother to check his link response, which seems pretty odd considering that he has such superior financial systems. Makes you wonder a bit.
  • Mark said:

    @FD - I also forgot to mention that your link doesn't work.

    Did you try to copy and paste and it didn't work?

  • edited March 2023
    Old_Joe said:

    Pretty sloppy for a guy who is always not only on top of everything, but actually well ahead of everything... he didn't bother to check his link response, which seems pretty odd considering that he has such superior financial systems. Makes you wonder a bit.

    I have been posting for years, and rarely my links don't work. Because the link didn't work I am sloppy?...mmm...it tells me a lot about you.

    BTW, how about discussing the topic?

  • edited March 2023
    Mark said:

    Well to be fair the survey was taken to assess how managers 'intend' to invest moving forward and not how they were positioned. The part FD left off from Yahoo:


    "Defensiveness is in style among financial advisers, according to the BofA Securities annual Global Wealth & Investment Management Survey.

    Equity allocation (NYSEARCA:SPY) (QQQ) (DIA) (IWM) fell to 57% from 62% in 2022, the lowest level in the short six-year history of the survey. This time around, 372 Merrill financial advisers from around the country responded.

    Exposure to bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) (IEI) (HYG) (LQD) rose 3 percentage points to 27%, the highest recorded.

    "These shifts may continue: 39% said they are moving more into bonds, vs. 18% for equities, consistent with the average bond allocation from sell-side strategists hitting a 10-year high," strategist Savita Subramanian wrote in the survey note Wednesday. "We see long duration bonds (and long duration growth stocks) as risky given rate sensitivity."

    Cash (VMFXX) (SPAXX) allocation rose to 10% from 7%.

    "Just 26% plan to buy stocks with excess cash (v. 42% last year), while 29% plan to buy bonds," Subramanian said. "30% are happy to remain in cash. Cash return/dividend strategies are most frequently requested by clients (82%). We concur. We also prefer companies with self-funded growth (cash flow generators) to those that need to borrow to grow.""

    FWIW.

    All you got to do is listen to dozens of "experts' on CNBC and read many articles in the last 3 months where they said the same thing. No, it didn't start this week, it's been going on for awhile now.
  • edited March 2023
    A working link would be nice @Fd1000. Like flying blind here. But for you to conclude somebody’s opinion of where to best invest was “wrong” based on YTD return (in this case less than 2.5 months) is a bit rash. Hell, even here folks have longer investment horizons than that!

    Please! I can’t tolerate CNBC. Geez - A bunch of old farts displaying cheap looking hair pieces. At least the women on Bloomberg look fine - even if the investment advice no more useful.
  • edited March 2023
    @hank and @Old_Joe - but did you copy and paste the non-working link? Who does that? Anyway try this LINK and maybe....

    FWIW in his original post the address shown was highlighted and a simple click should have taken one to the article. I don't know what he's done to it since because it is no longer highlighted. Maybe it's just my Mac messing with me.
  • So I read the linked (sic) article.
    Then I read the OP.

    After which, my only thought was/is:
    I thought Roseanne Roseannadanna passed away a long time ago.

    I see that the OP has also posted the same link (sic) on another forum and has been met with similar criticisms there.

    OK, so I actually had/have two thoughts:
    "You can't stop him. You can only hope to contain him."

    Or in the case of Roseanne, her.
  • For such an incredible financial genius FD10 seems to have a lot of trouble just posting a simple link. Go figure...
  • edited March 2023
    Thanks @Mark. It was kinda late. Will play with the airhead link later. I’ll cut FD some slack here. He’s not accustomed to posting threads with links.

    “To try and fail is better than not having tried at all.”
  • edited May 2023
    Just checking in again since the first post on March 8th. Quote "78% prefer Value (IWD) (VONV) vs. 12% who like Growth (IWF)"
    This (chart) since March 8th shows that IWF=growth continues to outperform IWD=value by more than 9% since and GLD did pretty well at 10+%

    YTD: IWF leads by "only" 16.5% (chart).
  • Between March 8 and May 13 I only worry about the performance of my favorite baseball team.
  • edited May 2023
    The advisers polled in the BoA survey may have been wrong (haven't read article).
    Prognosticators' market predictions are often incorrect.


    “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”
    - Yogi Berra

  • OK, I got it when I'm correct, advisors MAY be wrong. They are actually wrong many times, and why I don't listen to them. I just invest based on what has worked recently.
  • The link worked once the parenthesis were removed. Then was informed that had run out of free articles, so it was good that the summary was posted.
  • stillers said:

    So I read the linked (sic) article.
    Then I read the OP.

    After which, my only thought was/is:
    I thought Roseanne Roseannadanna passed away a long time ago.

    I see that the OP has also posted the same link (sic) on another forum and has been met with similar criticisms there.

    OK, so I actually had/have two thoughts:
    "You can't stop him. You can only hope to contain him."

    Or in the case of Roseanne, her.

    As it turned out, you were wrong again. The tech rally continues, contrary to what you posted + these "experts" who were wrong at the beginning of the year, and since the OP.

  • FD1000 said:

    ... I just invest based on what has worked recently.

    What are your momentum (or other) criteria for reckoning a turn ?

  • edited May 2023
    FD1000 said:

    stillers said:

    So I read the linked (sic) article.
    Then I read the OP.

    After which, my only thought was/is:
    I thought Roseanne Roseannadanna passed away a long time ago.

    I see that the OP has also posted the same link (sic) on another forum and has been met with similar criticisms there.

    OK, so I actually had/have two thoughts:
    "You can't stop him. You can only hope to contain him."

    Or in the case of Roseanne, her.

    As it turned out, you were wrong again. The tech rally continues, contrary to what you posted + these "experts" who were wrong at the beginning of the year, and since the OP.

    So on May 30th you are replying to a post of mine from March 9. Ok, got it now.

    FD, you clearly did not understand my post, but you came out trolling and swinging regardless, as is your nature and general level of comprehension.

    My post was NOT about your OP comments about this topic. It was in relation to the criticisms you received for it here and elsewhere.

    So again, from that perspective, like I said, I thought Roseanne Roseannadanna passed away a long time ago.

    (As you were not allegedly living in the US during her time, you might want to research her a bit to perhaps, I dunno, maybe get to first base in understanding my drift.)

    As for the tech rally, we happen to have our 2023 stock sleeve heavily slanted to growth and tech, and hold a LARGE position in FSELX. So we are actually actively participating in the HUGE 2023 "tech rally" that you are only watching from the sidelines while reportedly fully hunkered down in MMkt funds.

    BTW, I'm starting to feel genuine sorrow for your family. And I consider that a big step on my part.
  • edited June 2023
    stillers: BTW, I'm starting to feel genuine sorrow for your family. And I consider that a big step on my part.

    FD: Your usual, I post about investments and you troll my thread and attack me personally. After years that you claimed I don't have a clue, would never retire, and would never make it in retirement, the opposite is true. I retired years ago in 2018. Our portfolio size grew from 25+ times our expenses to close to 50 times, not including SS. All documented (here). We keep spending money on weeks of travel around the world, restaurants, and a new vehicle and are extremely busy. Life is good, no need to feel sorrow, unless you are talking about yourself.
  • some of us are built to be traders, i suppose. i could not do such a thing.
  • edited June 2023
    Ah, c'mon man! Don't make me elevate my feelings from sorrow to pity.
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