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The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello

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  • The Week in Charts (08/22/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 Tis But a Flesh Wound (Stocks)
    07:41 No Pain, No Gain (Bonds)
    12:37 Q4 Recession? (Economy)
    18:57 The Real Policy Mistake (Housing/Fed)
    31:50 Better Than Expected (Earnings Update)
    35:13 Streamflation (Streaming Services)
    39:32 A Secular Trend (E-Commerce)

    Video
    Blog

  • The Week in Charts (08/30/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 The Purchasing Power Decline (Housing)
    03:51 A Dearth of Supply (Housing)
    8:55 Disney's Drawdown
    11:42 Prepared to Hike Again (Fed)
    14:46 A New Computing Era ($NVDA)
    18:58 Lower Used Car Prices (Tesla)
    22:09 Long Cycles (US Domination)
    24:47 The Other Side of Mania (AMC/Meme Stocks)
    28:20 The Rental Gap (Suburban versus Urban Rent Growth)
    30:58 8 Billion Reasons Thomas Malthus Was Wrong

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (09/06/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes.
    Video
    Blog
  • edited September 17
    The Week in Charts (09/17/23)

    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:29 A Second Wave of Inflation? (CPI Report)
    08:44 The Long Pause? (Fed Policy Expectations)
    15:04 All Is Calm (Market Volatility, Credit Spreads)
    18:31 The Biggest IPO of the Year (Arm Holdings)
    22:39 Big Demands (UAW Strike)
    30:15 Retail Sales Slump
    33:32 Tightening Lending Standards
    34:49 Deficit Spending
    38:33 Rising Real Wages

    Video
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  • Just read in Reuters that oil is heading up to $100/barrel. The combined cut back from major oil producers including OPEC and Russia are affecting the supply side. Higher energy cost will boost inflation again.
  • edited September 18
    Sven said:

    Just read in Reuters that oil is heading up to $100/barrel. The combined cut back from major oil producers including OPEC and Russia are affecting the supply side. Higher energy cost will boost inflation again.

    Both NYMEX & Brent crude are up about a percent today. The first is priced near $92 and the latter around $95. Of course, oil prices have always been very volatile. Hard to time. What irks me is Americans’ fondness for driving very large high riding gas powered vehicles for everyday use - often with a sole occupant. These vehicles go about 18-20 miles (give or take) on a gallon of fuel under everyday driving conditions. These drivers are paying double to get from “Point A” to “Point B” they would with a midsized or large sedan capable of transporting 4 or 5 occupants in comfort. OK - it’s a free country. Do as you will. But why than scream about the high price of fuel?

    Bloomberg typically puts up prices for both NYMEX and Brent crude oil. Below is a excerpt from one source pointing out some of the differences.

    ”Brent is a waterborne crude. It is a basket comprised of five different North Sea crudes (Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll, commonly referred to as BFOET). As a waterborne crude, it can be put on a vessel and shipped anywhere. Because of this, Brent reflects global oil market fundamentals and the global economy. This is reinforced by the fact that approximately 80% of the world’s traded crude is priced relative to Brent, including Dubai, Urals, and West African crudes.
    Brent can be shipped and stored globally, either on land or in floating storage. As it has much more flexibility than WTI in terms of logistics …

    “NYMEX WTI
    In contrast to Brent, WTI Cushing is a landlocked regional crude, which reflects market fundamentals in the midcontinent region of the US. It has storage and logistics constraints at a very specific location: Cushing, Oklahoma. There is limited pipeline capacity to get crude in and out of Cushing, and limited crude storage capacity there.”


    https://www.ice.com/insights/market-pulse/what-are-the-differences-between-ice-brent-and-nymex-wti-futures

    As an investment, I maintain a 10% weighting in a CEF that plays around in the energy, industrial metals & precious metals sectors. (To me, it’s all about broad diversification.) A good mutual fund would be more cost effective, and potentially more profitable, but wouldn’t allow for the frequent rebalancing I like to do (intended to reduce risk). For broader allocation purposes this exposure is included under my “equity holdings”, so that my contribution to BBF’s thread did not distinguish this energy / metals exposure from the broader equity eposure
  • We are fortunate to own fuel efficient cars, not Tesla for sure. Cannot imagine having a Hummer.

    We exited the entire commodity futures position early this year. Guess it was premature now that oil is up again. Where is the recession that everyone is talking about?
  • The Week in Charts (09/24/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:37 Webinar Next Week (9/26 @ 1pm EST)
    01:06 Are Higher Rates Here to Stay (FOMC Meeting)
    08:52 Good Times, Bad Times (Bonds)
    17:02 Rising Rates: Good or Bad for Corporations?
    22:24 Another Debt Milestone (National Debt)
    26:29 A Minor Pullback (Equity Markets)
    28:49 Would Stock Picking Be Easy if You Knew the Future?
    31:34 Instacart IPO
    36:40 "Soft Landing"
    41:38 Slowdown in Homebuilding
    44:02 Commercial Real Estate Reset
    46:41 Real Estate Boom & Bust in China
    48:24 India's Incredible Progress

    Video
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  • The Week in Charts (10/01/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 Frozen Housing Market
    06:41 7 Years Gone (Bonds)
    09:14 Fed on Hold (Fed Policy)
    12:27 Unaffordable Healthcare
    16:18 King Dollar (Currencies)
    19:24 Know What You Own (TIPS)
    22:12 Indices Masking Weakness (Equity Markets)
    23:43 The Freedom Premium
    28:15 The 6% CD is Here

    Video
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  • The Week in Charts (10/08/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 That Escalated Quickly (Bond Yields)
    04:36 More Mortgage Pain (Housing)
    06:36 Higher Rates, Less Building (Apartments)
    08:32 The Coming Default Cycle (Office Property Market)
    11:28 Longest Bond Bear Market Ever
    15:36 More Jobs (Payroll Report)
    19:57 Lower Prices Bring Out the Bears (Stocks)
    25:13 When Valuations Matter (Story of 3M)
    28:36 Going Nowhere Fast (General Motors)
    30:48 Expensive EVs (Rivian)
    33:57 Borrowing $2 Trillion in 4 Months (National Debt)
    37:58 More Affordable Air Conditioning

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (10/15/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 How Long Will Inflation Remain Elevated? (Latest)
    05:36 Bond Market Doing the Fed's Job (Fed Policy)
    11:43 Boomer Spending Boom
    13:53 Banks Still Under Pressure
    17:19 The Bill Is Coming Due (National Debt)
    21:58 Cry for Argentina
    26:12 The Path to Prosperity

    Video
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  • edited October 23
    The Week in Charts (10/22/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:12 The 8% Mortgage Rate is Here
    03:39 Priced Out of the American Dream (Housing Market)
    06:43 Lost Decade in Long Bonds (Bond Market)
    11:09 The Bear Steepening
    14:29 Yield Curve: Still Inverted
    16:59 The Difficult Business of Predicting Recessions (Economy)
    19:21 Netflix Turnaround
    21:10 Margin Compression (Tesla)
    24:18 What's Priced In? (Moderna)
    26:59 Is This What a New Bull Market Looks Like? (Equities)
    30:20 What Are They Trying to Hide?

    Video
    Blog
  • The Week in Charts (10/22/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 The Year's Biggest Correction (Equities)
    06:09 Earnings Comeback (Big Tech, S&P 500)
    10:03 Buying vs. Renting (Housing Market)
    17:20 US Consumer Boosting Growth (GDP)
    22:54 A Depreciating Asset Once More (Tesla)
    28:18 UAW to Ford: "Pony Up" (Tentative Agreement)
    31:49 Unwinding the Fed's Excesses (Fed, Money Supply)
    36:19 Falling Core Inflation (PCE, FOMC Meeting)

    Video
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  • edited November 6
    The Week in Charts (11/05/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:24 Bouncing Back With a Vengeance (Equities)
    03:17 Investing in a Drawdown
    06:08 Improving Bottom Line (Earnings)
    09:54 Loosening Labor Market (Jobs Report)
    15:49 Pause, Pause, Pause, Cut (Fed, FOMC)
    21:54 Nothing From the 40 in 60/40
    26:23 Mortgage Industry Decline (Housing Market)
    29:35 More Affordable Rents (Rental Market)

    Video
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  • edited November 22
    The Week in Charts (11/12/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:16 The Tremendous Two (Apple & Microsoft)
    03:35 The Fantastic Four (Apple, Microsoft, Google & Amazon)
    06:41 The Enormous Eight (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Meta, & Nvidia)
    12:16 2023: The Inverse of 2022
    14:56 Rising Debt/Delinquencies (Credit Cards, Auto Loans)
    19:07 Next Inflation Report: Likely to Decline
    21:51 Higher Real Central Bank Rates (Today vs. 2 years ago)
    25:37 Spending on Experiences (Concerts, Travel)
    27:38 Is Housing Supply Starting to Normalize?
    30:41 From $47 billion to $0 (WeWork)
    32:40 Outpacing Inflation With I Bonds (updated rates)

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  • The Week in Charts (11/20/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:15 The Road to Lower Inflation (CPI Report)
    05:43 More Evidence of Cooling Inflation (PPI, Import Prices)
    07:00 Will CPI Decline Again in November?
    09:50 Market to Fed: No More Hikes!
    13:09 Earnings at New Highs & Stocks Not Far Behind
    14:58 The Tech Boom & Bust Cycle
    18:14 Manufacturing/Industrial Slowdown
    20:33 The Retail Sales Slowdown
    25:01 Secular Shift to E-Commerce
    26:37 When Debt Matters
    30:15 Higher Rates, Lower Homebuilder Confidence
    32:30 Thankful for Lower Food Prices

    Video
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  • The Week in Charts (11/28/23)

    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 The Volatility Crash ($VIX)
    05:30 An Unexpected Combination of Events (Higher Rates/Stocks/Multiples)
    07:55 Exponential Growth ($NVDA)
    11:29 Holiday Spending Spree? (Consumer)
    16:28 Room to Spare (Housing)
    19:00 Trying Something New (Argentina Election - Milei)
    21:57 Housing Market Standstill Continues (Existing Home Sales)
    24:39 "A Very Short Recession" (Conference Board)
    27:34 The New King of Shipping (Amazon)
    28:47 Lower-Priced New Homes

    Video
    Blog

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