Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including... 00:00 Intro 00:15 Tis But a Flesh Wound (Stocks) 07:41 No Pain, No Gain (Bonds) 12:37 Q4 Recession? (Economy) 18:57 The Real Policy Mistake (Housing/Fed) 31:50 Better Than Expected (Earnings Update) 35:13 Streamflation (Streaming Services) 39:32 A Secular Trend (E-Commerce)
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including... 00:00 Intro 00:12 The Purchasing Power Decline (Housing) 03:51 A Dearth of Supply (Housing) 8:55 Disney's Drawdown 11:42 Prepared to Hike Again (Fed) 14:46 A New Computing Era ($NVDA) 18:58 Lower Used Car Prices (Tesla) 22:09 Long Cycles (US Domination) 24:47 The Other Side of Mania (AMC/Meme Stocks) 28:20 The Rental Gap (Suburban versus Urban Rent Growth) 30:58 8 Billion Reasons Thomas Malthus Was Wrong
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including... 00:00 Intro 00:29 A Second Wave of Inflation? (CPI Report) 08:44 The Long Pause? (Fed Policy Expectations) 15:04 All Is Calm (Market Volatility, Credit Spreads) 18:31 The Biggest IPO of the Year (Arm Holdings) 22:39 Big Demands (UAW Strike) 30:15 Retail Sales Slump 33:32 Tightening Lending Standards 34:49 Deficit Spending 38:33 Rising Real Wages
Just read in Reuters that oil is heading up to $100/barrel. The combined cut back from major oil producers including OPEC and Russia are affecting the supply side. Higher energy cost will boost inflation again.
Just read in Reuters that oil is heading up to $100/barrel. The combined cut back from major oil producers including OPEC and Russia are affecting the supply side. Higher energy cost will boost inflation again.
Both NYMEX & Brent crude are up about a percent today. The first is priced near $92 and the latter around $95. Of course, oil prices have always been very volatile. Hard to time. What irks me is Americans’ fondness for driving very large high riding gas powered vehicles for everyday use - often with a sole occupant. These vehicles go about 18-20 miles (give or take) on a gallon of fuel under everyday driving conditions. These drivers are paying double to get from “Point A” to “Point B” they would with a midsized or large sedan capable of transporting 4 or 5 occupants in comfort. OK - it’s a free country. Do as you will. But why than scream about the high price of fuel?
Bloomberg typically puts up prices for both NYMEX and Brent crude oil. Below is a excerpt from one source pointing out some of the differences.
”Brent is a waterborne crude. It is a basket comprised of five different North Sea crudes (Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll, commonly referred to as BFOET). As a waterborne crude, it can be put on a vessel and shipped anywhere. Because of this, Brent reflects global oil market fundamentals and the global economy. This is reinforced by the fact that approximately 80% of the world’s traded crude is priced relative to Brent, including Dubai, Urals, and West African crudes. Brent can be shipped and stored globally, either on land or in floating storage. As it has much more flexibility than WTI in terms of logistics …
“NYMEX WTI In contrast to Brent, WTI Cushing is a landlocked regional crude, which reflects market fundamentals in the midcontinent region of the US. It has storage and logistics constraints at a very specific location: Cushing, Oklahoma. There is limited pipeline capacity to get crude in and out of Cushing, and limited crude storage capacity there.”
As an investment, I maintain a 10% weighting in a CEF that plays around in the energy, industrial metals & precious metals sectors. (To me, it’s all about broad diversification.) A good mutual fund would be more cost effective, and potentially more profitable, but wouldn’t allow for the frequent rebalancing I like to do (intended to reduce risk). For broader allocation purposes this exposure is included under my “equity holdings”, so that my contribution to BBF’s thread did not distinguish this energy / metals exposure from the broader equity eposure
We are fortunate to own fuel efficient cars, not Tesla for sure. Cannot imagine having a Hummer.
We exited the entire commodity futures position early this year. Guess it was premature now that oil is up again. Where is the recession that everyone is talking about?
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:37 Webinar Next Week (9/26 @ 1pm EST) 01:06 Are Higher Rates Here to Stay (FOMC Meeting) 08:52 Good Times, Bad Times (Bonds) 17:02 Rising Rates: Good or Bad for Corporations? 22:24 Another Debt Milestone (National Debt) 26:29 A Minor Pullback (Equity Markets) 28:49 Would Stock Picking Be Easy if You Knew the Future? 31:34 Instacart IPO 36:40 "Soft Landing" 41:38 Slowdown in Homebuilding 44:02 Commercial Real Estate Reset 46:41 Real Estate Boom & Bust in China 48:24 India's Incredible Progress
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:16 Frozen Housing Market 06:41 7 Years Gone (Bonds) 09:14 Fed on Hold (Fed Policy) 12:27 Unaffordable Healthcare 16:18 King Dollar (Currencies) 19:24 Know What You Own (TIPS) 22:12 Indices Masking Weakness (Equity Markets) 23:43 The Freedom Premium 28:15 The 6% CD is Here
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:12 That Escalated Quickly (Bond Yields) 04:36 More Mortgage Pain (Housing) 06:36 Higher Rates, Less Building (Apartments) 08:32 The Coming Default Cycle (Office Property Market) 11:28 Longest Bond Bear Market Ever 15:36 More Jobs (Payroll Report) 19:57 Lower Prices Bring Out the Bears (Stocks) 25:13 When Valuations Matter (Story of 3M) 28:36 Going Nowhere Fast (General Motors) 30:48 Expensive EVs (Rivian) 33:57 Borrowing $2 Trillion in 4 Months (National Debt) 37:58 More Affordable Air Conditioning
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:18 How Long Will Inflation Remain Elevated? (Latest) 05:36 Bond Market Doing the Fed's Job (Fed Policy) 11:43 Boomer Spending Boom 13:53 Banks Still Under Pressure 17:19 The Bill Is Coming Due (National Debt) 21:58 Cry for Argentina 26:12 The Path to Prosperity
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:12 The 8% Mortgage Rate is Here 03:39 Priced Out of the American Dream (Housing Market) 06:43 Lost Decade in Long Bonds (Bond Market) 11:09 The Bear Steepening 14:29 Yield Curve: Still Inverted 16:59 The Difficult Business of Predicting Recessions (Economy) 19:21 Netflix Turnaround 21:10 Margin Compression (Tesla) 24:18 What's Priced In? (Moderna) 26:59 Is This What a New Bull Market Looks Like? (Equities) 30:20 What Are They Trying to Hide?
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:24 Bouncing Back With a Vengeance (Equities) 03:17 Investing in a Drawdown 06:08 Improving Bottom Line (Earnings) 09:54 Loosening Labor Market (Jobs Report) 15:49 Pause, Pause, Pause, Cut (Fed, FOMC) 21:54 Nothing From the 40 in 60/40 26:23 Mortgage Industry Decline (Housing Market) 29:35 More Affordable Rents (Rental Market)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:16 The Tremendous Two (Apple & Microsoft) 03:35 The Fantastic Four (Apple, Microsoft, Google & Amazon) 06:41 The Enormous Eight (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Meta, & Nvidia) 12:16 2023: The Inverse of 2022 14:56 Rising Debt/Delinquencies (Credit Cards, Auto Loans) 19:07 Next Inflation Report: Likely to Decline 21:51 Higher Real Central Bank Rates (Today vs. 2 years ago) 25:37 Spending on Experiences (Concerts, Travel) 27:38 Is Housing Supply Starting to Normalize? 30:41 From $47 billion to $0 (WeWork) 32:40 Outpacing Inflation With I Bonds (updated rates)
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:15 The Road to Lower Inflation (CPI Report) 05:43 More Evidence of Cooling Inflation (PPI, Import Prices) 07:00 Will CPI Decline Again in November? 09:50 Market to Fed: No More Hikes! 13:09 Earnings at New Highs & Stocks Not Far Behind 14:58 The Tech Boom & Bust Cycle 18:14 Manufacturing/Industrial Slowdown 20:33 The Retail Sales Slowdown 25:01 Secular Shift to E-Commerce 26:37 When Debt Matters 30:15 Higher Rates, Lower Homebuilder Confidence 32:30 Thankful for Lower Food Prices
The most important charts and themes in markets, including... 00:00 Intro 00:18 The Volatility Crash ($VIX) 05:30 An Unexpected Combination of Events (Higher Rates/Stocks/Multiples) 07:55 Exponential Growth ($NVDA) 11:29 Holiday Spending Spree? (Consumer) 16:28 Room to Spare (Housing) 19:00 Trying Something New (Argentina Election - Milei) 21:57 Housing Market Standstill Continues (Existing Home Sales) 24:39 "A Very Short Recession" (Conference Board) 27:34 The New King of Shipping (Amazon) 28:47 Lower-Priced New Homes
Comments
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
00:00 Intro
00:15 Tis But a Flesh Wound (Stocks)
07:41 No Pain, No Gain (Bonds)
12:37 Q4 Recession? (Economy)
18:57 The Real Policy Mistake (Housing/Fed)
31:50 Better Than Expected (Earnings Update)
35:13 Streamflation (Streaming Services)
39:32 A Secular Trend (E-Commerce)
Video
Blog
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
00:00 Intro
00:12 The Purchasing Power Decline (Housing)
03:51 A Dearth of Supply (Housing)
8:55 Disney's Drawdown
11:42 Prepared to Hike Again (Fed)
14:46 A New Computing Era ($NVDA)
18:58 Lower Used Car Prices (Tesla)
22:09 Long Cycles (US Domination)
24:47 The Other Side of Mania (AMC/Meme Stocks)
28:20 The Rental Gap (Suburban versus Urban Rent Growth)
30:58 8 Billion Reasons Thomas Malthus Was Wrong
Video
Blog
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes.
Video
Blog
A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including...
00:00 Intro
00:29 A Second Wave of Inflation? (CPI Report)
08:44 The Long Pause? (Fed Policy Expectations)
15:04 All Is Calm (Market Volatility, Credit Spreads)
18:31 The Biggest IPO of the Year (Arm Holdings)
22:39 Big Demands (UAW Strike)
30:15 Retail Sales Slump
33:32 Tightening Lending Standards
34:49 Deficit Spending
38:33 Rising Real Wages
Video
Blog
Bloomberg typically puts up prices for both NYMEX and Brent crude oil. Below is a excerpt from one source pointing out some of the differences.
”Brent is a waterborne crude. It is a basket comprised of five different North Sea crudes (Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, and Troll, commonly referred to as BFOET). As a waterborne crude, it can be put on a vessel and shipped anywhere. Because of this, Brent reflects global oil market fundamentals and the global economy. This is reinforced by the fact that approximately 80% of the world’s traded crude is priced relative to Brent, including Dubai, Urals, and West African crudes.
Brent can be shipped and stored globally, either on land or in floating storage. As it has much more flexibility than WTI in terms of logistics …
“NYMEX WTI
In contrast to Brent, WTI Cushing is a landlocked regional crude, which reflects market fundamentals in the midcontinent region of the US. It has storage and logistics constraints at a very specific location: Cushing, Oklahoma. There is limited pipeline capacity to get crude in and out of Cushing, and limited crude storage capacity there.”
https://www.ice.com/insights/market-pulse/what-are-the-differences-between-ice-brent-and-nymex-wti-futures
As an investment, I maintain a 10% weighting in a CEF that plays around in the energy, industrial metals & precious metals sectors. (To me, it’s all about broad diversification.) A good mutual fund would be more cost effective, and potentially more profitable, but wouldn’t allow for the frequent rebalancing I like to do (intended to reduce risk). For broader allocation purposes this exposure is included under my “equity holdings”, so that my contribution to BBF’s thread did not distinguish this energy / metals exposure from the broader equity eposure
We exited the entire commodity futures position early this year. Guess it was premature now that oil is up again. Where is the recession that everyone is talking about?
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:37 Webinar Next Week (9/26 @ 1pm EST)
01:06 Are Higher Rates Here to Stay (FOMC Meeting)
08:52 Good Times, Bad Times (Bonds)
17:02 Rising Rates: Good or Bad for Corporations?
22:24 Another Debt Milestone (National Debt)
26:29 A Minor Pullback (Equity Markets)
28:49 Would Stock Picking Be Easy if You Knew the Future?
31:34 Instacart IPO
36:40 "Soft Landing"
41:38 Slowdown in Homebuilding
44:02 Commercial Real Estate Reset
46:41 Real Estate Boom & Bust in China
48:24 India's Incredible Progress
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:16 Frozen Housing Market
06:41 7 Years Gone (Bonds)
09:14 Fed on Hold (Fed Policy)
12:27 Unaffordable Healthcare
16:18 King Dollar (Currencies)
19:24 Know What You Own (TIPS)
22:12 Indices Masking Weakness (Equity Markets)
23:43 The Freedom Premium
28:15 The 6% CD is Here
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:12 That Escalated Quickly (Bond Yields)
04:36 More Mortgage Pain (Housing)
06:36 Higher Rates, Less Building (Apartments)
08:32 The Coming Default Cycle (Office Property Market)
11:28 Longest Bond Bear Market Ever
15:36 More Jobs (Payroll Report)
19:57 Lower Prices Bring Out the Bears (Stocks)
25:13 When Valuations Matter (Story of 3M)
28:36 Going Nowhere Fast (General Motors)
30:48 Expensive EVs (Rivian)
33:57 Borrowing $2 Trillion in 4 Months (National Debt)
37:58 More Affordable Air Conditioning
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:18 How Long Will Inflation Remain Elevated? (Latest)
05:36 Bond Market Doing the Fed's Job (Fed Policy)
11:43 Boomer Spending Boom
13:53 Banks Still Under Pressure
17:19 The Bill Is Coming Due (National Debt)
21:58 Cry for Argentina
26:12 The Path to Prosperity
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:12 The 8% Mortgage Rate is Here
03:39 Priced Out of the American Dream (Housing Market)
06:43 Lost Decade in Long Bonds (Bond Market)
11:09 The Bear Steepening
14:29 Yield Curve: Still Inverted
16:59 The Difficult Business of Predicting Recessions (Economy)
19:21 Netflix Turnaround
21:10 Margin Compression (Tesla)
24:18 What's Priced In? (Moderna)
26:59 Is This What a New Bull Market Looks Like? (Equities)
30:20 What Are They Trying to Hide?
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:15 The Year's Biggest Correction (Equities)
06:09 Earnings Comeback (Big Tech, S&P 500)
10:03 Buying vs. Renting (Housing Market)
17:20 US Consumer Boosting Growth (GDP)
22:54 A Depreciating Asset Once More (Tesla)
28:18 UAW to Ford: "Pony Up" (Tentative Agreement)
31:49 Unwinding the Fed's Excesses (Fed, Money Supply)
36:19 Falling Core Inflation (PCE, FOMC Meeting)
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:24 Bouncing Back With a Vengeance (Equities)
03:17 Investing in a Drawdown
06:08 Improving Bottom Line (Earnings)
09:54 Loosening Labor Market (Jobs Report)
15:49 Pause, Pause, Pause, Cut (Fed, FOMC)
21:54 Nothing From the 40 in 60/40
26:23 Mortgage Industry Decline (Housing Market)
29:35 More Affordable Rents (Rental Market)
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:16 The Tremendous Two (Apple & Microsoft)
03:35 The Fantastic Four (Apple, Microsoft, Google & Amazon)
06:41 The Enormous Eight (Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Meta, & Nvidia)
12:16 2023: The Inverse of 2022
14:56 Rising Debt/Delinquencies (Credit Cards, Auto Loans)
19:07 Next Inflation Report: Likely to Decline
21:51 Higher Real Central Bank Rates (Today vs. 2 years ago)
25:37 Spending on Experiences (Concerts, Travel)
27:38 Is Housing Supply Starting to Normalize?
30:41 From $47 billion to $0 (WeWork)
32:40 Outpacing Inflation With I Bonds (updated rates)
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:15 The Road to Lower Inflation (CPI Report)
05:43 More Evidence of Cooling Inflation (PPI, Import Prices)
07:00 Will CPI Decline Again in November?
09:50 Market to Fed: No More Hikes!
13:09 Earnings at New Highs & Stocks Not Far Behind
14:58 The Tech Boom & Bust Cycle
18:14 Manufacturing/Industrial Slowdown
20:33 The Retail Sales Slowdown
25:01 Secular Shift to E-Commerce
26:37 When Debt Matters
30:15 Higher Rates, Lower Homebuilder Confidence
32:30 Thankful for Lower Food Prices
Video
Blog
The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:18 The Volatility Crash ($VIX)
05:30 An Unexpected Combination of Events (Higher Rates/Stocks/Multiples)
07:55 Exponential Growth ($NVDA)
11:29 Holiday Spending Spree? (Consumer)
16:28 Room to Spare (Housing)
19:00 Trying Something New (Argentina Election - Milei)
21:57 Housing Market Standstill Continues (Existing Home Sales)
24:39 "A Very Short Recession" (Conference Board)
27:34 The New King of Shipping (Amazon)
28:47 Lower-Priced New Homes
Video
Blog