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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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I love Marketplace reporting, fwiw

David_Snowball
in Other Investing
Marketplace is a suite of daily programs about economics, culture and politics. That is, they talk about politics through the lens of its interplay with economics. The tone tends to be breezy and accessible, though the analysis and guests are pretty consistently solid and non-ideological. (The lead host, a former Navy fighter pilot and Foreign Service officer, remains stunned by Mr. Trump and his followers but that tends not to bleed into coverage the way it might with MSNBC or Fox.)

Yesterday's "that's cool!" moment was a really clear description of the cause of an imminent crisis in $20 trillion commercial real estate. David Sherman thinks the crisis will be monumental but didn't walk through the issue. Marketplace did: commercial RE loans are typically for five years. A record number of loans are due for renegotiation in the next year. Almost all of those loans will be at higher rates and many of those loans will be for smaller amounts. Lenders will grind more on borrowers' cash-flow assumptions and crisis management plans. In consequence, a bunch of deeply indebted borrowers may have to go into fire sale mode for some of their properties, either slashing rents to maintain near-full occupancy or selling properties for whatever they can recoup. This will not be a good thing.

That walk-through helped a lot.

You might find it worth your time to look into Marketplace. It is not NPR though, like NPR, it is listener-supporter. (I contribute monthly.) The flagship show is Marketplace. The daily chat between hosts is Make Me Smart. The program to help kids understand money is Million Bazillion. The show about how money messes with our lives is "This is Uncomfortable."

Comments

  • BenWPBenWP
    @David_Snowball: wonderful trivia about Kai Ryssdal, who is said to have the most enviable voice in radio. I was not a pilot, but I was headed to advanced ROTC and probable assignment bombing Cambodia or Thailand like my college buddy. Dropping out of school and subsequently learning about what was going on in Viet Nam are not decisions I now regret. I went back to the university a changed and more productive citizen.

    I also heard the story about the RE crisis on Marketplace. You are not alone!
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Oh yes- this used to be on our local NPR station, and it was excellent. My hearing degradation prevents listening, but I just subscribed to their newsletter.

    Thanks much, David.
    OJ
  • BaluBalu
    edited July 2023
    Thanks

    A description of each of the 11 shows can be found here - https://www.marketplace.org/shows/

    (Not from the drop down "Shows" menu on the main page)
  • Devo
    edited July 2023
    a contrary opinion to the property doom and gloom is found in this :

    https://www.baronfunds.com/sites/default/files/Baron-Real-Estate-Fund-Quarterly-Letter-3.31.23.pdf

    The results of the fund BREIX in multiple periods means the manager knows what they are talking about.
  • CrashCrash
    I've heard all of this before, and give it due attention. But I continue to wonder just how the doom and gloom would play out, if at all, in a niche-fund like the one I use to invest in Real Estate: PSTL, which is solely focused on POST OFFICE locations?

    it's not lighting the world on fire, for sure. The dividends are healthy, though....Any takers on my question? Thanks.
    https://postalrealtytrust.com/
    https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/XNYS/PSTL/quote
    https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PSTL/opinion
    https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PSTL/analyst-ratings
    https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/PSTL/technical-analysis
  • AndyJ
    Marketplace Morning Report (David Brancaccio et al.) is a quick take in the, yes, fairly early morning, which I like too. It's on my not-so-wealthy NPR station (as well as the website) so may be pretty widespread on public radio.
  • Devo
    edited July 2023
    @crash the real question on pstl is do your dividend go up everytime the cost of the forever stamp goes up
  • CrashCrash
    Devo said:

    @crash the real question on pstl is do your dividend go up everytime the cost of the forever stamp goes up

    Tongue in cheek, @devo?

    The stock is down -10.94% (M*) since I bought-in. But "Personal Rate Of Return" (TRP website after login) shows -8.19%. I suppose it's in the doldrums, a knock-on effect together with pretty much ALL Real Estate currently, eh? Dividends have indeed increased a tiny bit each year, between '22 and '23. I've owned it just less than a year. Not much history. In the end, I can't imagine the P.O. defaulting.

    But Markets are never simple and straightforward. The only SIMPLE rule I've definitely observed in that Markets always overreact to data or events, both to the upside and the downside.
  • Devo
    edited July 2023
    Reits are investments people got into when rates were low for income because they couldn’t get it from bonds. There has been a phenomenal outflow from public reits in the last 12-18 months. Everyone must feel the pain. Even if it’s the post. Even if it’s rain or shine and they deliver their dividends on time. Down 10% @crash in a reit is not bad. Especially if you have done the research. Based on David Sherman’s note important to make sure the reit is not constantly diluting shareholders. Would check that.
  • WABACWABAC
    Is there a secondary market for forever stamps? I think I have a lifetime supply.

    They were inherited. What does that do to the cost basis?

  • Devo
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=261718

    Bogleheads debate on forever stamps humorously fluctuates between replacement to TIPS vs quality of glue on those stamps.
  • Derf
    Take note : Forever stamp price goes up on Monday.
    Enjoy your weekend, Derf
  • CrashCrash
    ork. that sucks.
  • CrashCrash
    Devo said:

    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=261718


    Bogleheads debate on forever stamps humorously fluctuates between replacement to TIPS vs quality of glue on those stamps.

    LOL LOL LOL .
  • BaluBalu
    edited July 2023
    Dallas firm expects to hand back keys to 19 hotels, including two in Plano
    The Plano properties are among a portfolio that would have required a paydown of $255 million and $80 million in capital spending.

    Read in The Dallas Morning News: https://apple.news/AegWIHgtISIa34X7E9rHjDQ

    I am assuming this is the right thread to post the above, given the OP. If not, please feel free to move it to the right thread.

    I know everybody talks about office RE being the only sore spot in real estate. A few weeks ago two landmark hotels were surrendered by the owner in SF and I told myself that SF probably has some idiosyncratic issues and this is likely limited to SF and that if travel and entertainment is booming, the office contagion is unlikely to get to hotels.

    I guess I need to read the Baron funds link @devo posted to understand the nuances of the RE.

    Edit: Baron funds link covers Travel related real estate on page 8 of the 16 page document. Note that the fund, while talks about the great prospects for travel related RE, has allocated only 4.4% to Hotel & Leisure (15+% going to Casinos (grouped in Travel)).

    Hotels 2.0
    Timeshare Operators 1.5
    Ski Resorts 0.9
  • Devo
    “Tell me where I am going to die so I don’t go there” applies to investing just as much as lived experiences
  • BaluBalu
    I should have concluded my mid-night post better. The conclusion is that if one were to make idiosyncratic bets one probably should go with a proven active manager than using passive indices. The only active real estate OEF I ever invested is BREIX and I was happy with it when I owned it. I think I sold it sometime in 2014 but continued for a while my RE bets through fixed income with PDI, DMO, PCI, & PIMIX. Now, I own none of them and am a bit rustic in my knowledge of the sector and am trying to get up to speed.
  • davidsherman
    Just noticed a couple of comments. (A) I bought a bunch of Forever Stamps when they were first issued in April 2007 and dumped them in a safety deposit box. I just calculated by return of 3.29%. Not too good. LOL (B) CrossingBridge Pre-Merger SPAC (SPC) is a ultra short term fixed income alternative is which the SPAC is purchased and redeemed. I think the option to get an excess return from an announced transaction to sell into the news is highly suspect unless MEME investing comes back. SPC is not an equity comparison. (C) I did mention REITs are serial dilution to grow AUM but under rare circumstances I find them interesting and one should look at the Funds to see the if we find any of interest. (D) And one expansion on Devo thought ... I don't know where I am going to die but I am certain it will occur and I hope it is peacefully in my sleep.
  • CrashCrash
    Long ago and far away: I owned TRP RE and global RE. Dogs, in terms of performance. TRREX. TRGRX
  • Tarwheel
    I used to listen to Marketplace on my drive home from work, and it was the highlight of my commute. I haven’t listened to it since I retired but should find a way to hear to it again. It is a great radio show.
  • BaluBalu
    @David_Snowball,

    Do you also go by another alias, such as @admin that is quicker to type on a phone?

    Is there a thought of providing an ignore feature in this forum so one could ignore specific posters or threads to allow easy navigation? Many investment forums have this feature.

    Thanks.
  • hank
    edited July 2023
    BaluBalu said:

    @David_Snowball - Is there a thought of providing an ignore feature in this forum so one could ignore specific posters or threads to allow easy navigation? Many investment forums have this feature.

    ”Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.”

    Desiderata
  • BaluBalu
    edited July 2023
    The ignore feature (button) I am referring to is specific to each user who wishes to use it. Others' experience of the forum is not negatively impacted by it.
  • hank
    edited July 2023
    Understand. It’s been raised before. Just wanted to share my thoughts (which you apparently chose not to ignore).

    Edit - I’m wondering how someone would follow a protracted discussion involving multiple contributors if they had previously selected to “ignore” the comments of certain board members? Would come across as a discombobulated, perhaps completely unintelligible, muddle ISTM.
  • David_Snowball
    Hi, guys. Still in Shetland working via phone.

    The short answer is that we haven't had a Vanilla programmer since Accipiter left.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    ... and that was back in the Ice Age.
  • BenWPBenWP
    ... and our choice of flavors has evolved.
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