All I needed this Saturday AM. Several of the roughly dozen participants in Barron’s Annual Roundtable refer to politics or geopolitics having negative implications for investing in the coming year. The comments resurface throughout the lengthy article in various ways including mention of the end of democratic government in this country and potential use of nukes by one or several global actors. (Pour me a tall one.)
Excerpt:
Question: (From Barron’s Editors) What will we be talking about when we gather a year from now?
Ahlsten: An economic recovery, lower interest rates, lower inflation, a higher stock market, and a better outlook for 2025.
Priest: Continued deterioration in the geopolitical situation.
Rogers: An extraordinarily complicated election whose outcome could be thrown into the Supreme Court.
Rajiv: More of the same. Most trends are protracted. Geopolitics won’t shift dramatically, and the U.S. economy will be fine.
Cohen: We’ll be talking about the U.S. election and leadership in several other nations. Things look a little dicey for leaders in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We may be dealing with a different cast of characters next year. Also, I agree with John that our election consequences could be messy. And we’re all going to come with new book recommendations. Hopefully, some will offer comic relief.
Black: The outcome of the election could be an issue.
Giroux: We’ll be talking about AI, and the potential for $3 trillion of tax cuts to expire in 2025. We’ll be talking about the Magnificent Six instead of the Magnificent Seven, as Tesla will be out of that group. It could be a big underperformer this year. It is an auto company with a high valuation, and is losing market share.
Desai: We will be talking about many of the same things we discussed today, because nothing will be solved. And we will definitely be talking about the U.S. fiscal position. Also, my macro forecast was pretty darned close last year. Just noting.
Gabelli: We will spend a lot more time trying to figure out how to solve our fiscal problems, which will become more visible after the election.
Witmer: The U.S. will be fine. We tend to muddle through. Taxes have to go up. Nonprofits should probably be taxed on incoming funds. The large estate-tax exemption is due to sunset at the end of 2025. That will raise some money.
* Excerpt from Barron’s January 15, 2024
(Not that I haven’t had the same thoughts. But by and large these annual discussions steer clear of politics.)
Comments
As for the Dems, they want an ever-expanding gigantic, huge, inclusive tent. Anything is just OK. Standards? Who needs standards? Common Sense? What's THAT? And utterly airtight---STILL--- support for Israel's war will cost them votes. The border? Porous. We need immigrants, as noted on this week's Wall Street Week by Steve Rattner. But it needs to be orderly. And we can't fix the Latin American morass from HERE.
I happen to own a CEF from Gabelli (quoted in the excerpt). Suspect he’s to the right - though I don’t know if he supports Trump or not. Anyway - he’s made me some money … better than some of my other stuff.
@hank - Yes. we also did well with Mario, many years ago.