The Proposed Budget

Old_Joe

Investor unease over President Donald Trump’s economic program drove the government’s borrowing costs to their highest level in nearly two decades, following House approval of tax legislation that is expected to add trillions of dollars to the ballooning U.S. national debt.

The yield or interest rate on the 30-year Treasury bond briefly topped 5.1 percent Thursday morning, reflecting investors’ demands for greater compensation in return for lending money to the U.S. government.

If yields remain elevated, they will eventually mean higher borrowing costs on mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. Already, the average rate on 30-year mortgages has risen to 6.81 percent from 6.62 percent in mid-April, according to Freddie Mac.

Higher bond yields also are likely to act as a headwind on stocks. The S&P 500 index dropped more than 1.5 percent in early trading after the House passed the president’s tax plan by a vote of 215 to 214 with all but two Republicans in the majority and every Democrat voting no.

The above is from a current report in The Washington Post.

catch22

Thanks @Old_Joe
Watching the Senate now, eh?

I'll add this for now for whomever one may consider the words apply to; today, in 6 months or 2 years or ???

CRAZY

Observant1

Politics aside, this bill is fiscally irresponsible.
Our national debt was 124% of GDP as of 2024.
The government now spends more on interest than it does on national defense or Medicare.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the bill will add aproximately $3.8 trillion
$2.3 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimates additional debt would be $3.1 trillion
after accounting for recent adjustments made by House leadership.
Borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, and small business loans will increase.
U.S. equities may also lose some of their appeal when bond yields are elevated.

Edit: Revised CBO debt estimate based on current information. Added CRFB estimate.
https://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbos-first-score-house-reconciliation-bill

Observant1

Link to WaPo article referenced in OP for non-subscribers.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/trump-s-tax-bill-plan-adds-to-federal-debt-prompting-investor-backlash/ar-AA1FielS

JD_co

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-bill-house-republicans-pass-what-know-rcna208488

A debt limit hike
"The bill is projected by the CBO to add $2.3 trillion to the federal deficit over 10 years, with the tax breaks and new expenditures far outweighing the savings.

It also raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion ahead of a summer deadline announced by the Treasury Department for Congress to act or risk a catastrophic default. "


Oh, and he wants his name on the tax accounts for Children for which folks receive a lousy $1K (bold added):

Trump accounts
"The measure creates new tax-preferred savings accounts for children that the federal government seeds with a $1,000 deposit. Parents could then contribute an additional $5,000 annually until the child is 18. The money can be used for educational purposes, for a down payment for a home or to start a small business.

The original version of House Republicans' legislation called them "MAGA" accounts, but after an eleventh-hour amendment, they were renamed 'Trump" accounts."

Old_Joe

Evidently in this proposed "budget" is also a section which is designed to limit the power of federal judges to hold people in contempt, potentially shielding President Trump and members of his administration from the consequences of violating court orders.

The sprawling domestic policy bill Republicans pushed through the House on Thursday would limit the power of federal judges to hold people in contempt, potentially shielding President Trump and members of his administration from the consequences of violating court orders.

Republicans tucked the provision into the tax and spending cut bill at a time when they have moved aggressively to curb the power of federal courts to issue injunctions blocking Mr. Trump’s executive actions. It comes as federal judges have opened inquiries about whether to hold the Trump administration in contempt for violating their orders in cases related to its aggressive deportation efforts.

It is not clear whether the provision can survive under special procedures Republicans are using to push the legislation through Congress on a simple majority vote. Such bills must comply with strict rules that require that all of their components have a direct effect on federal revenues.

But by including it, Republicans were seeking to use their major policy bill to weaken federal judges. Under the rules that govern civil lawsuits in the federal courts, federal judges are supposed to order a bond from a person seeking a temporary restraining order or a preliminary injunction.

Free (hopefully) link to NY Times report.

AndyJ

A lot depends on how the Senate Parliamentarian comes down on compliance with the reconciliation rules. The S.P. has been in the job since 2012, appointed by Harry Reid. The MAGAs could try to fire her and put in an Aileen Cannon clone.

davidrmoran

direr than the usual:

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-22-2025?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=20533&post_id=164216050&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=tcpky&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

bee

Kitces article on the proposed Federal Tax changes:

Here's one:


proposed-tax-bill-2025-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-tcja-sunset-salt-deduction-cap-child-tax-credit-qbi-deduction-maga

msf

Thanks for the link. Pieces on the Kitces site are always worth a read. I'm planning to read it in full over the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, I see that the exec summary is already out of date:

It also creates a new type of savings account for children – Money Account for Growth and Advancement, or "MAGA" accounts – which the Federal government would automatically open and fund with $1,000 for every US citizen born from 2025 through 2028!

From CNBC:

Under the proposal, “Trump Accounts” — previously known as “Money Accounts for Growth and Advancement” or “MAGA Accounts” — can later be used for education expenses or credentials, the down payment on a first home or as capital to start a small business.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/tax-bill-maga-baby-bonus-now-called-trump-accounts-who-is-eligible.html

Here are some other last minute changes that were dropped into the bill:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/05/21/congress/trump-megabill-last-minute-changes-00364603

kings53man

Poor be damned loosing Medicaid, I love my tax breaks.
Is Republican proposal same as what passed Congress yesterday?

sma3

The only bright spot is that today’s newborns, when they are 90, will be able to easily remember who turned the USA into a third world debtor nation, beholden to China for scientific discoveries and biomedical research in 2025

gman57

sma3 said:

The only bright spot is that today’s newborns, when they are 90, will be able to easily remember who turned the USA into a third world debtor nation, beholden to China for scientific discoveries and biomedical research in 2025

With what he's trying to do to our universities that is truth, long before they are 90. Where do people think most new technologies, discoveries come from?

"While both colleges and corporations play significant roles in technological advancements, universities are often the primary source of groundbreaking discoveries and innovations. Universities produce top-tier academic researchers whose innovations can be the basis for life-changing technologies, such as cures for diseases, energy solutions, and improved food ecosystems. "

Universities provide the spark, corporations make them a product. All these research and grant cuts are a big negative. It does one thing: Dumbing down your voters.

Anna

The professional class, those with marketable skills, of America might move to another country so their children have opportunity for a better future. Hopefully, for those who can't, some of the religious public schools will allow training in all areas especially math, engineering and science.

sma3

Here is where the $17 Billion cut from the NIH and the $5 Billion cut from National Science Foundation is going

"The measure roughly doubles the current annual budgets of Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in what Aaron Reichlin-Melnick of the American Immigration Council notes is “the single biggest increase in funding to immigration enforcement in the history of the United States.” It increases ICE’s detention budget from $3.4 billion a year to $45 billion through September 2029, a staggering 365% increase on an annual basis that would permit ICE to detain at least 100,000 people at a time.

It increases ICE’s budget for transportation and removal operations by 500%, from the current $721 million to $14.4 billion. It also calls for $46.5 billion for construction of barriers at the border, including completing 701 miles of wall, 900 miles of river barriers, and 629 miles of secondary barriers, and replacement of 141 miles of vehicle and pedestrian barriers.” It calls for $45 billion for adult and family detention, enough to detain at least 100,000 people at a time."

Anyone care to compare the future value of dollars spent on scientific research vs ICE ?

gman57

The next time a democrat is elected what stops them from closing all these things down and redirecting the money like is happening now with green initiatives, infrastructure etc... ? It's the price of such a divided country, wasting money on the others priorities rather than figuring out where to compromise for the good of the nation. Spend a lot on X then the next admin shuts that down and spends on Y. Back and forth. There has to a lot of waste in that.

Crash

gman57 said:

The next time a democrat is elected what stops them from closing all these things down and redirecting the money like is happening now with green initiatives, infrastructure etc... ? It's the price of such a divided country, wasting money on the others priorities rather than figuring out where to compromise for the good of the nation. Spend a lot on X then the next admin shuts that down and spends on Y. Back and forth. There has to a lot of waste in that.

Yes, I see what you mean. Polarized politics. There used to be a reasonableness, dealing with those across the aisle. Republicans are all but extinct; it's all Repugnants in charge by now. And the Demublicans have been actually tacking to the Right since the Clinton years, apart from the Woke Squad. (Though Obamacare is a positive development.) The Orange One is clearly a usurper. Hopefully, some semblance of normalcy will return when he's done. Is he dead yet?

Crash

gman57 said:

The next time a democrat is elected what stops them from closing all these things down and redirecting the money like is happening now with green initiatives, infrastructure etc... ? It's the price of such a divided country, wasting money on the others priorities rather than figuring out where to compromise for the good of the nation. Spend a lot on X then the next admin shuts that down and spends on Y. Back and forth. There has to a lot of waste in that.

Yes, I see what you mean. Polarized politics. There used to be a reasonableness, dealing with those across the aisle. Republicans are all but extinct; it's all Repugnants in charge by now. And the Demublicans have been actually tacking to the Right since the Clinton years, apart from the Woke Squad. (Though Obamacare is a positive development.) The Orange One is clearly a usurper. Hopefully, some semblance of normalcy will return when he's done. Is he dead yet?
*DUPLICATE. Dunno how that happened.