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The Stock Market Is Getting Scary. Here’s What You Should Do. By Burton G. Malkiel
“Here’s What You Should Do” - By Burton G. Malkiel
A bit presumptuous isn’t he?
Agree with the scary part. Sound advice in general. I wonder if the NYT editors created the pompous sounding header?
Author: ”Mr. Malkiel is an American economist and financial executive. His 50-year-old book, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” is widely credited with popularizing stock index funds.”
Have listened to this book on Audible and found it interesting.
In the Comments section of the NYT article from the OP, there are over 680 recs for a message that pointed out that the US is now an autocratic state and thus should be compared more closely with China. Both have compromised data and a few rich dudes running the show.
Not sure we can chuckle at that..... because it's really happening.
There are numerous economic red flags that are being ignored, and this regime will try to hide any negative prints.
Trust will be an issue going forward in the US, for what we are becoming is not what we ever were.
Yes, I think that's true on at least one level. But how do we explain how roughly one-half of the voters in this country now admire and emulate our current "leader", and those vandals who he led to attack our Capitol? Did a large number of them just change their personalities, beliefs in democracy, and value systems, or were those types there all along, and we're just seeing that now?
My personal belief is that those people were there all along, but until the communications revolution of the internet and streaming video they were relatively isolated, without the ability to easily communicate with others of similar beliefs, and they were essentially isolated into fairly small but unorganized groups.
Now they've found each other, and all hell has broken loose. We now have no idea what sort of harebrained rant will emanate from the White House at any time, and who will be the target of that man on any given day.
Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.
The country is ideologically split. Ignorant and racist white males---many of them--- resent losing pride of place. So, they're engaging in a backlash. Criminal Doctor Orange feeds them the pap they want to hear. He's of the same ilk. Ignorant women, as well. As long as they're MAGA, the Orange Doink doesn't care.
So many voters spent their ballot on a man-child who is immature, spineless, ignorant; he is a Superfund site dressed up like a human. They are dragging down the country, and the rest of us along with them. And project 2025? If ever there was a recipe to subvert the USA...
But the Market possesses no more of a conscience than many of the voters. It will carry on apart from the politics, until it can't... How big is that deficit by now? And in 10 more years? Ask the CBO. By then, it will hardly be worth counting. The Orange coup continues apace, from within. It's an undeclared Civil War again.
“Here’s What You Should Do” - By Burton G. Malkiel
A bit presumptuous isn’t he?
don't be ignorant )
You’re starting to sound like the other side. Demean the speaker instead of making your own case for your viewpoint. If you think the article’s caption is fitting explain why.
I think “Here’s what you should do” is simplistic and assumes the writer understands your needs, goals and situation better than you do. HTH does he know what you or I should do with our investments? As I wrote, it’s a good article. Captions don’t always accurately reflect what’s inside.
Yes, I think that's true on at least one level. But how do we explain how roughly one-half of the voters in this country now admire and emulate our current "leader".....
My personal belief is that those people were there all along... Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.
This is the cold hard truth that some of us (myself included) wrestle to grasp. Tough to swallow, but it resonates.
The markets can ignore a lot of political mayhem, but there has to be a line in there. We are crossing that line, or have crossed it. Congress is impotent. We are now an autocratic state. We see corruption at the top in full public view.
The US Govt and the Fed backstopping the foundation of the US markets.....that backstop is fading away. Take away the safety nets, and it could look ugly.
My personal belief is that those people were there all along, but until the communications revolution of the internet and streaming video they were relatively isolated, without the ability to easily communicate with others of similar beliefs, and they were essentially isolated into fairly small but unorganized groups.
Now they've found each other, and all hell has broken loose.
Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.
You may have a point, Old Joe.
According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
I’m with OJ. These people and their mentality have been here all along. Gerrymandering has helped them a lot. The days of Dan Rather and Walter Cronkite speaking for the nation are long gone, replaced by an enormous quantity of media outlets spewing hatred and conspiracy theories
In some respects the article presents a paradox. In his opening comments Malkiel notes the euphoric state of investors: ”Now, jubilant investors are pushing our market to historic highs …”
From that initial (and accurate) note of euphoria, Malkiel turns to fault the Administration’s economic policies as harmful to investors. One might reasonably ask, Why are those investors so euphoric then? The President’s supporters would cite the market performance as due to their leader’s brilliance (satire intended). Indeed, Trump often cites the high market level as indicative of such.
I think @Old_Joe made some good excellent points, but suspect the issue has even deeper undercurrents. In that regard, I’ve searched for parallels to our situation to that of Germany in the 30s. There are some striking parallels to voting patterns, but a key difference is that Germany had a viable 3-party system. So, while the National Socialist party attained a plurality of support among the populace - it never garnered higher than 37% of the electorate at its height. That said, it’s an interesting area to study if one is trying to understand the appeal of authoritative leaders.
@hank said- "I ... suspect the issue has even deeper undercurrents".
Yes, I think so also. My comments were just a real quick overview/summary.
What’s wrong with a solid B ?
Grade raised to A after further contemplation. I hadn’t quite thought of it that way. But I knew the internet had a lot to do with it.
- OJ points to the internet allowing these folks to self-identify / band together. Yes.
- But the anonymity offered also promotes more meanness. Similar to angry drivers on the road, people who don’t know you personally, live on your block or work along side you, feel freer to be abusive than those you might have associations with.
- Along with the internet is the evolutiondevolution of cable news. Where did fair and balanced go? Pick your side. Watch / listen only to the ones that agree with your views. What could separate us more? Like sheep we are herded.
- Then there’s that hybrid product the podcast offering some of the polarization cable viewers gravitate to, but imbued with the meanness and failure to fact-check only the internet can deliver.
- When I said “deeper” I was referring to something deep inside the human soul that repeatedly leads to episodes of human folly and tragedy. War upon war. Century upon century. In the freedom offered by the internet the beast rages untethered. Make what you will of it.
[snip] According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
The Financial Times recently published their Business Book of the Year 2025—the longlist. The following book was on the list.
In Outclassed: How the Left Lost the Working Class and How to Win Them Back, Joan C Williams looks at the US left’s failure to challenge the rise of Trump, through the lens of workers and the working class. She aims to explain how that happened and how the Democratic elite might use economic and political tools to recover support.
I think the "woke" agenda has alienated a great many of those who are disaffected away from the Dem Party--- regardless of anything else, be it wages, cost of living, etc. "Gender -fluid?" You gotta be kidding me, they say. It's visceral with them, biblical. And a great many on the Evangelical extreme Right are biblical literalists, fundamentalists.
The Dems do need to re-accentuate bread and butter issues.
anyone casually familiar with the role of equity within asset allocation would know that malkiel is in the top tier of practical academics, including bill bernstein and mike mauboussin. malkiel deserves some benefit-of-doubt, basically providing the public (and john bogle) a foundation for indexing.
malkiel has advised all but very few should time index fund shifts based on anything other than rebalancing, in that most are likely to get this wrong. where he has been a bit stubborn, is in realizing flow distortions to the market due to indexing popularity. but this understandably gets drowned out in the golden age of grift via crypto, spacs, leveraged option ETFs, dozens of trump vehicles, etc...
anyone casually familiar with the role of equity within asset allocation would know that malkiel is in the top tier of practical academics, including bill bernstein and mike mauboussin. malkiel deserves some benefit-of-doubt, basically providing the public (and john bogle) a foundation for indexing.
malkiel has advised all but very few should time index fund shifts based on anything other than rebalancing, in that most are likely to get this wrong. where he has been a bit stubborn, is in realizing flow distortions to the market due to indexing popularity. but this understandably gets drowned out in the golden age of grift via cryto, spacs, leveraged option ETFs, dozens of trump vehicles, etc...
Yes. I agree and gather this to be true from a variety of smart market commentators I listen to. But try telling that to someone who has been riding the indexes higher and higher all or most of their investing life. And “overvalued” doesn’t mean the market won’t continue to rise … perhaps riding atop an ever rising permanently higher plateau …
I hope I did not come across as critical of Malkiel. I really think the article’s header was an editorial choice. Often the same article will appear in various venues across the internet with different captions / titles.
Yes, both parties gerrymander. I should be more clear:
Here are some state distortions at a glance:
1. TX - GOP received 56% of the vote and received 79% seats 2. NC - GOP received 10-11 of seats despite close vote share 3. WI - GOP received 75% of seats with less than 50% votes 4. OH - GOP received 75% seats with roughly 52% votes 5. MO - GOP received 58% votes and received 87% seats
\\ “Here’s What You Should Do” - By Burton G. Malkiel
>> A bit presumptuous isn’t he?
Since you are so endlessly prolix on this forum, I just do not understand how often you also are dimly reflexive. Malkiel! It is not as though you are uninformed, just that you behave as if. I think we have had this discussion.
@PopTart- Yes, both parties gerrymander. That's why I voted for California's independent redistricting commission, which I believe has worked very fairly. And now our governor wants to "temporarily" shut down the commission for five years to offset Trump's work in Texas. "Nice guys" just can't win.
In NAACP v. Merrill, plaintiffs challenged prison gerrymandering in Connecticut as a violation of one person, one vote. In Connecticut (and other states), prisoners are counted as residents of the districts where their prisons are located, as opposed to being counted as residents of their home address. While the Second Circuit affirmed, for the first time, that plaintiffs could sue a state over prison gerrymandering, both parties filed for dismissal in April 2020.
Comments
“Here’s What You Should Do” - By Burton G. Malkiel
A bit presumptuous isn’t he?
Agree with the scary part. Sound advice in general. I wonder if the NYT editors created the pompous sounding header?
Author: ”Mr. Malkiel is an American economist and financial executive. His 50-year-old book, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street,” is widely credited with popularizing stock index funds.”
Have listened to this book on Audible and found it interesting.
Not sure we can chuckle at that..... because it's really happening.
There are numerous economic red flags that are being ignored, and this regime will try to hide any negative prints.
Trust will be an issue going forward in the US, for what we are becoming is not what we ever were.
You said it!
My personal belief is that those people were there all along, but until the communications revolution of the internet and streaming video they were relatively isolated, without the ability to easily communicate with others of similar beliefs, and they were essentially isolated into fairly small but unorganized groups.
Now they've found each other, and all hell has broken loose. We now have no idea what sort of harebrained rant will emanate from the White House at any time, and who will be the target of that man on any given day.
Maybe we are in fact simply merely becoming a lot more of what we always really were.
(quite aside from his possible playing down of the clear move toward autocracy)
So many voters spent their ballot on a man-child who is immature, spineless, ignorant; he is a Superfund site dressed up like a human. They are dragging down the country, and the rest of us along with them. And project 2025? If ever there was a recipe to subvert the USA...
But the Market possesses no more of a conscience than many of the voters. It will carry on apart from the politics, until it can't... How big is that deficit by now? And in 10 more years? Ask the CBO. By then, it will hardly be worth counting. The Orange coup continues apace, from within. It's an undeclared Civil War again.
I think “Here’s what you should do” is simplistic and assumes the writer understands your needs, goals and situation better than you do. HTH does he know what you or I should do with our investments? As I wrote, it’s a good article. Captions don’t always accurately reflect what’s inside.
The markets can ignore a lot of political mayhem, but there has to be a line in there. We are crossing that line, or have crossed it. Congress is impotent. We are now an autocratic state. We see corruption at the top in full public view.
The US Govt and the Fed backstopping the foundation of the US markets.....that backstop is fading away. Take away the safety nets, and it could look ugly.
You may have a point, Old Joe.
According to an article in today's NYT, "The Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters long before they even go to the polls.
Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.
That four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from. The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too ..."
From that initial (and accurate) note of euphoria, Malkiel turns to fault the Administration’s economic policies as harmful to investors. One might reasonably ask, Why are those investors so euphoric then? The President’s supporters would cite the market performance as due to their leader’s brilliance (satire intended). Indeed, Trump often cites the high market level as indicative of such.
I think @Old_Joe made some
goodexcellent points, but suspect the issue has even deeper undercurrents. In that regard, I’ve searched for parallels to our situation to that of Germany in the 30s. There are some striking parallels to voting patterns, but a key difference is that Germany had a viable 3-party system. So, while the National Socialist party attained a plurality of support among the populace - it never garnered higher than 37% of the electorate at its height. That said, it’s an interesting area to study if one is trying to understand the appeal of authoritative leaders.https://www.johndclare.net/Weimar6_Geary.htm
Yes, I think so also. My comments were just a real quick overview/summary.
What’s wrong with a solid B ?Grade raised to A after further contemplation. I hadn’t quite thought of it that way. But I knew the internet had a lot to do with it.
- OJ points to the internet allowing these folks to self-identify / band together. Yes.
- But the anonymity offered also promotes more meanness. Similar to angry drivers on the road, people who don’t know you personally, live on your block or work along side you, feel freer to be abusive than those you might have associations with.
- Along with the internet is the
evolutiondevolution of cable news. Where did fair and balanced go? Pick your side. Watch / listen only to the ones that agree with your views. What could separate us more? Like sheep we are herded.- Then there’s that hybrid product the podcast offering some of the polarization cable viewers gravitate to, but imbued with the meanness and failure to fact-check only the internet can deliver.
- When I said “deeper” I was referring to something deep inside the human soul that repeatedly leads to episodes of human folly and tragedy. War upon war. Century upon century. In the freedom offered by the internet the beast rages untethered. Make what you will of it.
The following book was on the list.
In Outclassed: How the Left Lost the Working Class and How to Win Them Back, Joan C Williams looks
at the US left’s failure to challenge the rise of Trump, through the lens of workers and the working class.
She aims to explain how that happened and how the Democratic elite might use economic and political tools
to recover support.
The Dems do need to re-accentuate bread and butter issues.
I think Harris won only MD, with all the other states, including battleground states, voting for Cheeto.
This Newsweek article has the photo that I tried to upload.
Some other sources:
Princeton:
https://gerrymander.princeton.edu
very interactive:
https://davesredistricting.org/maps#home
malkiel deserves some benefit-of-doubt, basically providing the public (and john bogle) a foundation for indexing.
malkiel has advised all but very few should time index fund shifts based on anything other than rebalancing, in that most are likely to get this wrong.
where he has been a bit stubborn, is in realizing flow distortions to the market due to indexing popularity. but this understandably gets drowned out in the golden age of grift via crypto, spacs, leveraged option ETFs, dozens of trump vehicles, etc...
I hope I did not come across as critical of Malkiel. I really think the article’s header was an editorial choice. Often the same article will appear in various venues across the internet with different captions / titles.
Here are some state distortions at a glance:
1. TX - GOP received 56% of the vote and received 79% seats
2. NC - GOP received 10-11 of seats despite close vote share
3. WI - GOP received 75% of seats with less than 50% votes
4. OH - GOP received 75% seats with roughly 52% votes
5. MO - GOP received 58% votes and received 87% seats
Just some examples
>> A bit presumptuous isn’t he?
Since you are so endlessly prolix on this forum, I just do not understand how often you also are dimly reflexive. Malkiel! It is not as though you are uninformed, just that you behave as if. I think we have had this discussion.