but i'll only expound on that after they go up.
ok, enough useless fd1k channeling, here is something insightful undisputed by history :
"...financial history is that market pricing almost never takes into account the possibility of huge, disruptive events, even when the strong possibility of such events should be obvious. The usual pattern, instead, is one of market complacency until the last possible moment. That is, markets act as if everything is normal until it’s blindingly obvious that it isn’t.."
p.krugman
and paraphrasing from b.elliot (ex-bridgewater cio) :
it is not uncommon for the market to lag a bad economy for ~9 months after it becomes undeniable, which is on top of the lag from bad decisions that wrecked the economy.
both these put plenty of weight on the investor 'beauty pageant' effect...which is what investors think other investors think despite probabilistic leading quant indicators.
Comments
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Above story is from today’s WSJ - ”The S&P 500 currently trades at 22.5 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with the average of 16.8 times since 2000.” Story adds that today’s figure is misleading because so much of the S&P’s weight is concentrated in just 7-8 stocks: “Not everything looks expensive … If every company in the S&P 500 were weighted equally … the index would be trading at 1.76 times sales, compared with its long term average of 1.43.”
”A Band of Retail Investors Powered the Meme-Stock Rally. Now They’re Flexing.”
“Retail trades now account for 18% of stock-market volume, up from 10% in 2010 …”
5 Largest Asset Bubbles in History
Hemingway
making it impossible to achieve higher returns via expert stock selection or market timing.
I believe markets are generally efficient over longer time periods.
However, EMH does not account for investor behavior nor does it explain bubbles and crashes.
So, the markets are not always right...
Below is my portfolio performance since retiring in 2018. I’ve kept about 95% in bond funds (not CEFs). My portfolio has consistently outperformed a 50/50 portfolio, a 60/40 allocation like VBIAX, and even a 100% stock mix when diversified with 60/40 SPY/VXUS.
That said, beating stocks isn’t my main goal. My objective is to outperform 50/50 while limiting drawdowns to no more than 3% from any peak. In fact, I’ve never lost more than 1% from any top, while still beating most allocation funds. This was achieved through strong market timing. Just like the song (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hx4gdlfamo)
BTW, this performance is 99+% of all the money we have. This includes all brokers, banks, credit unions, and cash/mm.
Portfolio performance since 1-1-2018: https://ibb.co/zT6QGzSs
Yeah, yeah... you and your Dearest Leader have accomplished everything,
BIGGER AND BETTER THAN EVER BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY.
"I actually have accomplished......". LOL. We care not.
In fact, I’ve never lost more than 1% from any top, while still beating most allocation funds."
This is a person who strokes his fragile ego by posting the same FAKE NEWS ad nauseum.
Perhaps he thinks the seasoned investors on the forum will be impressed by this nonsense?
why not just claim 95% in iau for 2 decades?
no one believes that straight blue line...but at least it was drawn below the S&P500.
kudos if rich enough not to care, but magic timing claims are zero value add.
In this (link) you can find several trades I made in crucial markets.
In fact, I posted my sale on 2/29/2020 on this site.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55299/bond-mutual-funds-analysis-act-2/p2
LarryB, My trades were never perfect; I never claimed they were. When I'm wrong, I'm out of the market for up to a week. When I'm right, I was out for several weeks (in 2018, 2020, 2025) to 10 months in 2022. I can't do it with a lot of money, think above 10-20 million; after all, I trade in/out mutual funds. There were already times when the mutual company restricted me from trading their funds too often.
I don't need to prove anything anymore. All the real discussions happen now off the boards.
This is a screenshot in early 2020 (https://ibb.co/k2SKDPPg)
This is a screenshot of 2022 (https://ibb.co/1tKzDR4j)
If the markets go up, orange cries out "they love us". But I don't think we are going to have to hear that BS in the future.
The next dance this market is going to do is called the Dive.
there does seem to be an overwhelming lack of where major positioning should be for the week\month of the posts.
The above phrase is from another poster on another site that has been wrong for about 15 years now. When he posted about his timing, it was a disaster.
I sold on 2/29/2020 and posted about it on several sites, including this one.
I sold early in 2022, and bought in 11/2022 and posted about it. This is why I made 9+% in 2022.
There is plenty of evidence of my portfolio performance.
Several in my circle of traders all have done it.
It's obvious you can't do it, so your only response is trashing.
People like you are responsible for why I (and other great traders) don't post these anymore.
It doesn't bother or affect us, but posters have been interested for years. Actually, 1 of them joined our group after he paid attention for years and started using it.
Basically, you score a giggle, but others lose.
fred walks and bs talks with yet another information-free reply.
contrast with this post from fred who :
- explains his rationale
- gives his current positioning
- estimates his likely changes
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/64547/portfolio-allocation-ideas-strategies
i personally have been in preservation mode since FIRE in ~2018, and am up a few % after all family expenses and luxuries. my actions may only be selectively useful to anyone...e.g., actions in individual stocks are an intellectual hobby whereas for others it may be all they want to do.