Sentiment & Market Indicators, 11/12/25

yogibearbull

SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 11/12/25
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -17.5% (very low)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 34 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 48.58% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 52.20% (positive)
These are contrarian indicators.

INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget, debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (193+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (cyclicals up, growth down), bonds up, oil down, gold up, dollar down.

Supremes are handling several cases involving Administration. The longest DC shutdown has ended. Yearend reminders: TLH, RMDs, QCDs, donations, 529 transactions, 401k/403b contributions, Roth Conversions, gifts, tax w/h.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2300/thread

yogibearbull

BTW, cryptos are in a bear territory already. It's said that speculative cryptos and Nasdaq have a good correlation.

Broad market briefly rallied on the expectations of the end of the longest DC shutdown, but has sold hard on the news.

Sentiments are very negative. This selloff is in a favorable seasonality period (November 1 - April 30).

gman57

We just had 6 up months, that's rare. I was expecting a pullback in Oct but I was a month early.

Observant1

It's very unusual for sentiment to be extremely low
after U.S. stock markets have rallied and are near highs.

DrVenture

Excellent and much appreciated summary!

Not a bit surprised at negative sentiment. For all the same reasons expressed in the OP.

Observant1 said:

It's very unusual for sentiment to be extremely low
after U.S. stock markets have rallied and are near highs.

Interesting "observation".

Sven

What can go wrong in this AI-dominated economy ? But then i may be a minority investor.

yogibearbull

Well, $1 trillion OpenAI IPO may be too much for even this market to swallow. Let's hope it remains a rumor only.

Observant1

"The newsletter also highlights a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors.
Stocks’ six-month return was highest when the spread between self-professed bulls
and bears was most sharply negative—in other words, when respondents were most-pessimistic."

"If you’re feeling almost envious of those buying opportunities, have a look at last week’s Michigan
sentiment number. It came in well below expectations at 50.3, the second-lowest result ever.
And the AAII survey just had a bull-bear spread in its most-pessimistic decile."

"And when they respond to surveys, their feelings about the person in the White House skew their opinions.
Low sentiment today is relative to our recent, gentle experiences and also more politicized than ever."

"With stocks near the highest valuation ever, it’s also extremely unlikely they’ll more than double
in the coming years. Are sentiment indicators broken as an investing cue?
No, but they need to be recalibrated."

https://marketsam.cmail19.com/t/d-e-gjdkykl-duklntldl-r/

Junkster

The current AAII bears of 49.1 came out when the S@P was within 1% of an all time high. That occurred only once before and that was April 10, 2013. A year later the market was up over 17%.

Insane bearishness AAII Bulls - Bears average over the past year is -8. That has only occurred 3 times. During the 1990, 2008, and 2022 bear markets. Never in a bull market like now.

The above from @TheMarketStats on X.

Observant1

@Junkster,

Thanks for the additional details!

DrVenture

Must be where the adage about "climbing a wall of worry comes from".