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POT Slammed Today

edited July 2013 in Off-Topic
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In face of several recent bullish reviews on SeekingAlpha:

Potash: 5 Reasons To Buy (7/27)
Potash Corp Should Be Bought Here (7/26)
Potash Seem Ripe For A 15%+ Move (7/9)

Comments

  • I think you have a sector that's already seen significant drops from the highs for the last few years. People tried to pick a bottom, but I can't imagine anyone - analysts or otherwise, saw what was coming this morning that caused this. As I noted in the other thread, POT owns a good deal of SQM and both pay nice dividends. Still, while there may be a bounce, I'd say stay away (and if the industry is really weakened, the dividends may be lessened or dropped.)
  • Reestablished a trading position in MOO early this morning, picking it up under $50. If it falls more, I will double down. MOO has positions in POT and MOS that represent less than 12% of its holdings, and I believe this selling is way overdone. I'll play for a bounce over the next days or couple of weeks.
  • Reply to @tgeno: I agree MOO is probably the best way to play it and I continue to think ag is a place to be long-term.
  • MOO hasn't exactly been a standout since its inception and has a negative 5 year annualized compounded return.
  • A relate article that may explain the reason for price adjustment in Potash:

    Russian Potash company
  • Apart from MOO which is agricultural stocks, agricultural commodities has not been the place to be the past 30 years+. I use to trade agricultural commodities back in the days and was a futures broker for a short time in the early 70s. Comparing prices from then to now and then compared to the S&P then and now it's not even remotely close as to the total returns.
  • Reply to @Junkster: I trade in and out of MOO based on its chart. It's not an investment.
  • Its a beaten down sector, so cost averaging here could be very rewarding for those with patience. Starting to nibble today.
  • From the "Articles & News" thread:

    Potash Group Surviving Demise of Russian Competitor
    "POT, MOS & AGU poised to continue managing supply to bolster prices"
    "We expect a major exit by investors out of potash producers"
    ⇒ Link to Bloomberg Article
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