Ok. Let's talk about mutual funds in the narrowest of ways. Considering the age of the bull market, where we are in the interest rate cycle, where I am i am in my own life cycle and political risk I am finding it increasingly difficult to add new money to my fund positions. For me,,,, political risk is the wild card or the Joker, if I can say that here on the Teddy board. Who else considers political risk to be inhibiting new investment?
Comments
Not much has changed since my last barometer report. It is linked below in case you missed the post.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/42056/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-report-june-recap#latest
Myself? I’ve been looking for a year for some pocket of deep value (a depressed area) where I might speculate a bit and grab off an easy gain. Nothing. Everything looks pricy. Recently I moved some $$ from DODLX (global bond) into PREMX (emerging market bond). The former is ahead about 1.5% over the past year while the latter is off 2-3% over that time. Go with the percentages and figure over the next year or so that relative performance will invert. But, nothing big there - looking at very small advantage over a couple years. And yes, I do think this political mess will get worse before it gets better and there will be a price to be paid by investors. But exactly when, how, and what? Dunno.
Added: Gold’s off substantially over the past couple months (from around $1300 to around $1200). I consider it too risky to speculate in so have avoided the temptation to buy (more than I already own). Could go a lot lower. But for someone looking for an entry point (small allocation) this might not be a bad time.
@hank, Henry Ellenbogen is solid manager and I agree with his sentiment on today's environment. Even though the TRP New Horizon is way ahead of the mid-cap growth funds, he is still cautious which is good. Like you, I did not find any deep value opportunities except for emerging markets but I think better buying opportunities is ahead as the tariff take hold.
The EM stocks aren’t off enough where I’d wade in. Even the bonds are a gamble - but I like the income they kick out. Suspect the hit in the miners may be affecting some of these economies (ie Latin America) and if gold moves up it will help. I maintain a static weighting to international bonds all the time anyway - so in this case just went a bit more aggressive.
Bought PCI and PRSNX (hope this latter is not a mistake) with proceeds from PDI and PTY sales. As ever, looking for genuine diversification.
Debating whether to move one of my children (nontrivial amount) into FCPGX (missed latest runup), thoughts welcome.
I re-established my position in PRBLX as the core for my Roth today. Now that they sold WFC I like the fund again, and will be redeploying my TWEIX proceeds into it over the near future. It is paired with POGRX to give a growthy slant to my Roth, to offset the significant single position in LCV RWMGX in my 403(b).
My long held MAINX is lagging badly this year as the dollar strengthened. Still like this fund better than emerging market bonds and those in local currencies. I have been following PCI but it is trading at a premium so I will wait.
I would advise against chasing the better performing asset - certainly not in one lump sum. If need to be, consider buying in dips over a 3-6 months period. Cash is still a viable option since money market is paying close to 2%.
Where do you get ~2% for mm? not disputing, just curious.
Yes, DLEUX has been most disappointing. I will bail at first breakeven, I think.
I am reconsidering PRBLX.
>> been following PCI but it is trading at a premium
? Help me understand what I am missing here:
https://www.morningstar.com/cefs/xnys/pci/quote.html
If the Ds take at least one house of Congress, as I hope and expect, I think the subpoena power is going to pull up a whole lot of dirt on DJT, and we're heading to a constitutional crisis which the markets are going to detest. I personally believe Mueller will also serve up the goods, sooner rather than later, and that DJT will not go quietly.
So I've been building cash and adding to bonds funds that I consider conservative (OSTIX, RPHYX).
Put more in FOCPX, and PRHSX.
Closed out MAINX, took 1/5 out of TCMPX.
I'm trying to get simpler.
Then I sold of funds at TDA (ulcer alert) to get ready for closing account. Waited 30 days and bought some again, e.g. ICMAX elsewhere. TGDLX sold at loss, waiting for 30 days to decide whether to buy again. Dollar rising...
As a general rule in sell mode for International funds, and buy mode for MidCap. My 401k is mostly invested at this time. Been buying last few days based on my models. Departed from index funds a bit and bought a little of "value" instead. For instance, DODGX and TRMCX. On the growth side, TRLGX, PRDMX.
Bottom fishing international and emerging markets right now. In 401k might move some of Large Cap into these. The dollar needs to fall though.
As I recall they discussed their reasons for selling WFC in a recent commentary/report but I can't remember which one. ;/ I forgot what their explanation was for selling it after holding it for so long DURING the various scandals in recent years, though.....IMO they should've dumped it much sooner than they did. I think they finally got fed up with the company's various questionable practices.
larryB beat me to it. Vanguard Prime money market offers 2.05% yield. Ultra-low ER allows for higher yield.
Last time I checked PCI the discount was less than 1% - not so attractive. As I recalled from Sam Lee who was a Morningstar analyst, he recommended to buy PCI only the discount is in double digits since the CEF is 40% leveraged. Any loss will magnify the leverage.
I wonder what its future holds, as it has outperformed (say) FAGIX just amazingly the last 5.5y over about any interval within you choose.
But note also the smart fundalarm's post of last fall:
CEF wrapper is dependent on VIX. As volatility is subdued, CEFs trade on fundamentals (based on NAV performance) and some investor sentiment (discount/premia). With quiet VIX and outstanding NAV performance, pimco (and other) CEFs attracted more and more new investor money. When VIX spikes, the fundamentals (NAV) become less relevant, and investor psychology dominates trading and discounts widen.
Regards,
Ted