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Has a stock market selling stampede now begun?

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  • edited October 2018
    Funny how things change sometimes. Never thought that I'd be wishing for a return of ol' GWB instead of what we've got now.
  • Old_Joe said:

    Funny how things change sometimes. Never thought that I'd be wishing for a return of ol' GWB instead of what we've got now.

    @OJ, once in a while that thought crosses my mind too, and then I recall that it was a package deal that included Dark Lord Cheney.
  • @AndyJ- Yeah, I forgot all about that one. Actually, he'd fit in nicely with Bolton. Maybe that's next.
  • I'm thinking that rono is just reading the tea leaves as he sees them, not going negative for ideological reasons, eh? The Markets--- that big , conglomerated ball of everything that goes into trading (vs. investing) every day, loves the Repugnant Party. Because Markets don't have any conscience--- just like the Repugnant Party. There, I've said it.
  • You said it @Crash, and I agree. I do think though that the market has already priced in a Democrat swing. If the Trump-enablers do hold their seats, it could be an upswing in the market. Toss a coin. Personally, I'm willing to have more drop in the market if it puts this guy in lame-duck status.
  • @MikeM: Best of luck on tonight's game !
    Derf
  • Thanks @Derf. They'll need more than luck, divine intervention maybe. Tom Brady versus, ummmm, not sure who our QB is.
  • edited October 2018
    MikeM said:

    Thanks @Derf. They'll need more than luck, divine intervention maybe. Tom Brady versus, ummmm, not sure who our QB is.

    I recall my days out near Buffalo and all the Buffalo fans. I had to go along. It's fun for me to root (if that's the proper usage?) for a perpetual underdog. Ralph Wilson Stadium. Used to go by it a lot, living between Buffalo and Salamanca. And I recall the early frost. Mid-September. Jayzuz.
    http://www.city-data.com/city/Ellicottville-New-York.html
  • Derf said:

    @VF: I tried to do 3 primary with different % in retirement account. I think its being a retirement account that's causing me grief.

    good to know. Have been toying with moving my TDAmeritrade:-( IRA to Vanguard. The problem with Vanguard that drives me crazy is they cannot multiply and divide with rounding properly.
  • Hi sir Vintagefreak that why they have desktop calculators
  • edited October 2018
    Hi folks, I am linking below Jeffrey Saut's commetary dated October 29, 2018 titled "The Perfect Storm." In his commentary he comments on the recent selling stampede along with his thoughts as to when and why it might be ending. However, no one really knows for sure when it will end. Enjoy the read.

    https://www.raymondjames.com/wealth-management/market-commentary-and-insights/investment-strategy

  • @Old_Skeet: Thanks for the read.
    Good investing to all, Derf
  • edited October 2018
    With all respect to Jeff Saut, I think the term “stampede” is being grossly abused here. Admittedly, there’s no generally accepted definition for a market stampede. But there is a generally accepted definition for market correction. That’s a retrenchment of at least 10% from recent market highs. Judging by that, the NASDAQ and Russell entered correction territory during mid-October and the S&P entered correction territory yesterday, October 30 - being now down slightly more than 10% from recent highs.

    I think this is more than just an exercise in semantics. Some inexperienced investors might misconstrue “stampede” to represent “crash.” It could prompt them to throw common sense out the window and begin buying blindly out of a mistaken belief the market (having already crashed) can’t go much lower. Depending on your situation and time horizon that might not be a bad idea. But for some it would be. The problem is they might buy heavily today, after a mere 10% pullback - expending all their reserve cash - only to be hit with a real market stampede / crash a few weeks or months later. For those who remain fully invested at all times mine is a mute point. However, the tenor of this thread leads me to think some are at least considering changing their allocation based on market behavior. Either approach has merit. But if you are considering making changes, step gingerly.

    My own humble thinking is that we are nowhere near what I’d consider a stampede in most markets. Gold might qualify - being down roughly 20-30% from its 12-month high, but I hear no one using stampede to characterize that retrenchment in price. The EM markets, taken in whole, are quite possibly in the process of a stampede - but again they haven’t experienced the kind of public hype that a mere 10% correction in the S&P has brought on.

    The U.S. equity markets have been decidedly rocky as of late. Sometimes that type of action precipitates an approaching market stampede / crash. Often it does not. Time will tell. In the meantime, sit back and relax. Like pornography, the best definition of stampede might be: “You’ll know it when you see it.”

    Some possibly helpful links:

    How to tell a stock Market Correction from a Crash
    https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/investing/what-is-a-stock-market-correction-and-what-happens-in-a-crash/

    Investor Stampedes and Stock Market Manias
    https://www.thebalance.com/investor-stampedes-4029722

    Definition of “Stampede”
    https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stampede
  • Hank, you are correct but who would read the blather if the headline said markets are going to go down a bit.
  • MARKETS BEGIN ARMAGEDDON !!!

    FOUR HORSEMEN SEEN APPROACHING SOUTHERN BORDER !!!
  • edited October 2018
    @Old_Joe,

    Just because it’s legal where you live, doesn’t mean you should be smoking it!.
    (PS - Relax. We got 5000 troops heading your way. We’ll stop em.)
  • Howdy folks,

    Sokay. I'm not overall negative and particularly not negative should democrats take as much control as possible. Hell, I'm hoping that the Coalition of the Decent make America Good again.

    That said, we're talking stock market and so much of the gains can be attributed to the cuts to both taxes and regulation. With a democratic house the trend will be opposite, at least to select industries but with only the house you won't see a reversal. However, with the house, every person who ever talked to the Donald is going to be investigated. You think things have been bad with Nunez.

    That's with only the house flipping. Should the senate also flip, you could see vetoes overridden but you could also see serious moves towards impeachment.

    The market will not like impeachment.


    the rono is down for it but WTF

    and so it goes,

    peace,

    rono


  • Yeah I'll take a hit to my wealth if it means that cheeto is in jail.
  • Mark said:

    Yeah I'll take a hit to my wealth if it means that cheeto is in jail.

    +1.
  • This seems the dumbest thing from Arends I have ever read, speaking of the next slump:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-simple-way-to-beat-a-bear-market-2018-10-30
  • johnN said:

    Hi sir Vintagefreak that why they have desktop calculators

    not sure if you were being sarcastic:-)
    my problem is when they report cost basis on tax forms. their calculations are incomprehensible and whatever "rounding logic" I apply, I cannot reach it. So I'm forced to use THEIR cost basis lest IRS audits me seeing discrepancy and keep a note what my actual cost basis was.

    I guess I shouldn't be complaining. At least they are not Ameritrade. I get an ulcer every time I type that word.
  • edited November 2018
    Hello. With the S&P 500 Index being up for the past three trading days (by defination) the selling stampede (or perhaps as some might say it should have been called the "selling frenzy") is now over. From Monday's close of 2641 to Thursday's close of 2740 this puts the Index up from the bottom 3.7%. So, thus far, if you were not invested you missed a good third of the upturn from the most recent decline of this selling frenzy.

    Remember, midterm elections are just days away.
  • Old_Skeet said:



    Remember, midterm elections are just days away.

    I bet we see continued run-up today and perhaps Monday, and then a massive reversal on Tues if the Dems retake the House. You know, get as much altitude as you can so any big drop down won't bring you 'down' too far.....
  • Hi @rforno,

    rforno said ...

    I bet we see continued run-up today and perhaps Monday, and then a massive reversal on Tues if the Dems retake the House. You know, get as much altitude as you can so any big drop down won't bring you 'down' too far.....

    My comment.

    I'm thinking we will see a stock market rally through the end of the year. Come January things could change. With this, I'm not putting new money to work on the equity side of my portfolio. With the US 10 Yr yielding about 3.2% and the US 2 Yr now at about a 3.0% yield I am starting to build the fixed income side of my portfolio by raising my cash and my bond allocations by 5% each and in the process reducing equities by about 10%. I'm thinking that the FOMC is going to continue in their march to raise interest rates again in December and a few more times in 2019. This should, by my thinking, create greater headwinds for stocks.

    I'll bet President Trump sure wishes he had left Janet in charge. I wonder, if he will fire Mr. Powell?


  • I bet other-wise than Mr. Skeet. I think we will look back a year from now and pin point October as the start of a continuous downward trend leading into a recession. Just a gut feel of course. Hope my gut is wrong.
  • I am betting the opposite
  • I am betting the opposite
    Is that bet with new money invested?
  • retired, so no new moneys from anywhere :)
    but yes, I will be staying more in equities than otherwise
  • <
    Old_Skeet said:

    Hi @rforno,


    I'll bet President Trump sure wishes he had left Janet in charge. I wonder, if he will fire Mr. Powell?


    The Federal Reserve Act doesn’t explicitly give the U.S. president power to fire the Fed board members. But section 10 has a mysterious little phrase indicating it’s at least possible......

    “…thereafter each member shall hold office for a term of fourteen years from the expiration of the term of his predecessor, unless sooner removed for cause by the President.”

    I have no doubt that Trump will give it a try. He thinks he is supreme ruler of the land. Act swiftly, Mr. Mueller. Its time.
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