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Why own turkey now



Turkey was the worst performing country ETF of 2018 down -41%. Yet, perhaps counter-intuitively, data suggests this is a good sign.
Turkey is no stranger to being the worst-performing country, but on the 3 occasions it's happened recently, the average subsequent 1-year annual return is 280%.
This strategy is volatile. For example, in 2010, Greece lost -45% only to lose -63% the following year. However, the results of this strategy historically outperform global indices.
Turkey appears to be a strong candidate for robust expected returns in 2019 and beyond driven by a general re-rating of the market from 6x earnings and export-led growth.


  • For Thanksgiving (be sure to freeze it, though). It's delicious.

  • You beat me by two seconds....

    Why own Turkey? Depends why a person would want to own the country, I guess. Down 41% may lead some to try a mean-reversion trade, but I have no compelling reason/idea/need to own it (or many countries) myself.
    JoJo26 said:

    For Thanksgiving (be sure to freeze it, though). It's delicious.

  • Well, being retired I just got up (eat your hearts out!) so you two certainly got there well before me. Early birds, worms, and all that...
    Gobble-gobble... :)
  • That depends on whether you want to support a fascist or not with your capital:
    The question is when does investing in a regime become immoral to each individual investor? Would you own German or Japanese stocks in 1940, even if the return prospects were great? I don't buy the argument that politics or ethics don't matter in investing and that all that should matter is profits. Investors made a conscious choice to divest from South Africa during Apartheid for good reasons. How about a highly profitable manufacturer of Sarin gas or child pornographry? Where does one draw the line? Each must make his own ethical bed and sleep in it. I'm not saying these questions are easy or even have a universal answer, but they should be asked.
  • @MFO Members: Never let your emotions get in the way of making a profit !
  • edited June 2019
    @Ted How come you don't sell meth for a living then instead of soybeans?
  • Because it's not legal, soybeans are !!!!!!!!!!
  • So if it was legal, you would sell it? I just want to know if you'd be willing to be a drug dealer.
  • edited June 2019
    @Ted No answer. I thought so. Maybe we should start calling you Walter White.
  • edited June 2019
    He makes an alley cat look pretty good.
  • Funny. I thought, from the header, that edible turkeys were the topic here. No capital "T." ...THAT'S why. No, I could not deliberately own Turkey these days. Erdogan is as bad or worse than the Trumpster. If there were a different planet I could move to and invest in, I'd choose it.
  • @MFO Members: Great tune !
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