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  • Nice reference; lots of up-to-date details.

    As of this afternoon:
    217,583 cases
    8936 deaths (that's 4.1%)
    84,383 recovered (so there are still many active cases)

    Among the deaths:
    a 34-year-old Indian soldier
    a 56-year-old Brazilian
    a California man in his 50s

    It's not just us old folks at risk.

    Hunker down everybody. (But you might not want to watch CNBC.)

  • For anyone who missed this I think this is the best single web analysis of the pandemic
  • edited March 2020
    Using a few numbers from JohnN's link, I come up with the following death rates, using the reported "Total Cases" and "Total Deaths".

    Now we all know that reported numbers in situations like this are typically tentative and subject to significant correction, but still it's very interesting to note the differences in the death rates, and how they vary by country.

    Italy 8.3%
    Iran 6.5%
    Spain 4.3%
    Germany 0.2%
    France 2.9%
    USA 1.7%
    S. Korea 1%

    What does Germany seem to know that no one else does? Perhaps their numbers were run with the same software that they used to report emissions on their diesel engines?

    There is a wealth of additional statistical info regarding the death rates at John's site. Here's an additional link for that.

    is the first place I go, though no granularity
  • The Axios reference is really up to date.
    Note the US data:
    Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 7,769 —
    Total deaths: 118 (That's a 1.5% mortality rate; maybe social distancing is working)
    Total recoveries: 106 (still a lot of active cases)
  • The US mortality rate is consistent with the figure that I calculated so that's probably fairly reliable. Let's hope that our government's COVID data is more accurate than it's COL inflation figures.
  • edited March 2020
    I'll reload this one from a post a few days ago. If you find the most current news story is more than 10 minutes old.........look at the top of the news story list and CLICK THE BURNT ORANGE shaded words, "moved here" . You'll have the newest feeds in the list.

    CNN news feeds.

    NOTE: Politico is not updating data properly as of 4pm, March 19.
    Also, another interesting data set from Politico. I don't know the frequency of the update. Although the time/date indicates current, some of the data is not current.

    LASTLY, I'll add this editorial to the ongoing failures, IMHO. I know of 2 college students who returned from Italy about 2 weeks ago and entered through customs without any checks, questions or ....
    Last night, Tuesday, March 17; 2 family members returned from checks of any kind or questions at customs. They made one stop, late at night for groceries, and will remain at their home for 14 days (not that they were asked or told at customs, but by family members).
    Yup, everything thing is running like a fine tuned watch.
  • edited March 2020
    Know several colleagues of friends very young age ER physicians, finished residency last year 30s years old, now in ICU on ventilator, likely will not make it. One has very young 2 year old daughter...We are indeed praying for them...

    so close and so surreal
  • Coronavirus live updates: U.S. cases near 11,000 — an 8,000% increase in 15 days

    Here is a short summary of the latest infection statistics, as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle:

    • 926 in California, including 440 in the Bay Area.

    • 10,755 cases in the U.S., with 155 deaths: 17 in California, 68 in Washington state, 20 in New York, 9 in Florida, 7 in Louisiana, 5 in New Jersey, 4 in Georgia, 3 in Texas, 3 in Oregon, 3 in Michigan, 2 each in Connecticut, Colorado, Indiana and Virginia, and one each in Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and South Dakota.

    • More than 235,000 in the world and 9,700 deaths. More than 84,000 have recovered.
  • I dont think you can use the test data until tests are widely available. The numbers then will skyrocket. Using the flu as an example it is estimated there are 100 cases for every diagnosed case but most of these people are not sick enough to go to hospital

    I dont know if the death statistics only count people who tested positive. In China they added Lung CT scans as a marker of disease ( and used clinical criteria for diagnosis before test was available)

    The data from China does not give comfort

    72 314 Cases (as of February 11, 2020) ( 80000 cases now so most of them)

    Confirmed cases: 44 672 (62%) ( positive viral test)

    Suspected cases: 16 186 (22%) ( based on symptoms and exposure)

    Diagnosed cases: 10 567 (15%) ( based of other testing like CT Scan)

    Asymptomatic cases: 889 (1%)

    Age distribution (N = 44 672)

    ≥80 years: 3% (1408 cases)

    30-79 years: 87% (38 680 cases)

    20-29 years: 8% (3619 cases)

    10-19 years: 1% (549 cases)

    <10 years: 1% (416 cases)

    Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

    Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

    Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

    Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

    Case-fatality rate

    2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

    14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)

    8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

    49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

    It took an average of eight days from onset of symptoms to incubation or hospitalization.

    So I take this all to mean the US death rate may be less than China's but probably a bit lower overall if the system is not overwhelmed. Our nursing homes and prisons will have death rates far higher. In Kirkland 30% of the residents have died.

    China had 10000 cases Jan 21 and 200 deaths but the number didn't start to level off for another 2 to 3 weeks, even with their draconian isolation.

    Italy had 10000 cases March 10th with a 35% increase daily they have 35000 8 days later

    AS of today they have had more deaths than total China deaths.

    US death rate is close to Italy's^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    ( A bit of difference in numbers of deaths from Johns Hopkins or CDC although he has JH data)

    We should expect the number of cases to rise rapidly with more testing. Numbers of hospitalized patients and deaths will be a more reliable indicator of the effectiveness of control but that will probably lag by at least a week.

    By early to mid April we will probably know if the social distancing is working.

    Stories like the above from the airport and the news of "bro culture" in Florida on Spring break are very very depressing
  • edited March 2020
    Antimalarial drug plaquenil and Remdesivir appear very promising... we have the best Healtchare team and hospital/icu...hope we will get through these difficulties time
  • johnN- God Bless You for a message of hope!!!
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