Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Wagner chief Prigozhin declares war on Russian military leadership, says ‘we will destroy everything
I could lay out some bizarre possibilities here (covert in nature) - but will refrain.
The Wagner general is known to be a hot-head who often criticizes the Russian military brass and political leaders. But this is a bit extreme. Taken at face value it raises a specter of a potential armed struggle for control of Russia’s political and military command, and with that their nuclear arsenal.
Al Jazeera: "The United States said it was monitoring the situation, with National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge telling reporters that US allies were also being consulted."
Maybe Putin has gotten a bit more than he asked for, or really wanted. Whatever the outcome, this might be very interesting. Just to clarify a bit, Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, is not a general (except maybe in his own mind)- he's a civilian, and (former?) Putin pal.
Imagine a civilian with his own private "army" taking on the Army- this makes the US look really stable, for a pleasant change.
In thinking about that, it occurs to me that Prigozhin's "Wagner" outfit is nothing more than a heavy-duty version of our "Proud Boys", "Oath Keepers", et al.
For anyone who watches South Park, it seems like a cartoon villain, a Cartman is trying to take over Russia— a foul mouthed idiot who lived in and operated a hot dog stand as his first business and is behind the Russian troll factories that helped drive the 2016 election. Now he leads a private army of ex-cons. It’s hard to imagine a more surreal situation: https://nytimes.com/2023/06/23/world/europe/yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-wagner-coup.html
Spewing vulgarities, disregarding the law and displaying loyalty to no one but Mr. Putin, Mr. Prigozhin, a businessman known as “Putin’s chef” because of his catering contracts with the Kremlin and Russian military, has become a symbol of wartime Russia: ruthless, shameless and lawless. It was a significant turnabout for Mr. Prigozhin, who acknowledged only last fall that he had founded Wagner.
In Moscow, he has been dogged by open questions and criticism, with analysts expressing doubts that his recruitment of prisoners and endorsement of extrajudicial executions had broad appeal.
Mr. Prigozhin expanded Wagner’s presence in Ukraine after the Kremlin’s attempt to seize Kyiv, the capital, failed in the initial days of its invasion early last year. The “private military company” was at that point largely active in Syria and Africa, where it operated both on behalf of the Russian government and in the service of Mr. Prigozhin’s own business interests.
He was also active elsewhere. In February 2018, Mr. Prigozhin was one of 13 Russians indicted by a federal grand jury for interfering in the American election through the Internet Research Agency, a troll factory that spread falsehoods and waged information warfare against the United States, in support of the presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump.
The United States imposed sanctions against Mr. Prigozhin in December 2016.
Born in 1961 when St. Petersburg was called Leningrad, Mr. Prigozhin was sent to prison in 1981 for robbery and other crimes, according to Meduza, an online investigative publication. After serving his nine-year sentence, he opened a hot-dog stand, eventually leading to an entrepreneurial career starting restaurants and convenience stores.
Yes, For a change, CNN is actually airing real news today. Won’t last for long. If the Russian story isn’t resolved within 48 hours it will be back to the busted sub, the gal who got bitten by a shark somewhere and maybe the latest Johnny Depp saga.
This incident is not over and Putin’s vulnerability has been exposed. Al Jazeera article discussed some possibilities after the excise.
Questions remain: 1. What is next for Prigozhin in Belarus? Cannot imagine he just ‘retires’. 2. Who will take over Wagner group since they done the bulk of fighting in Ukraine?
@Sven posed the question - "Who will take over Wagner group since they done the bulk of fighting in Ukraine?"
For me that begs the questions: 1. Are they loyal only to Prigozhin? 2. Will they retain the same loyalty and attitude fighting for a different leader? 3. Will they be supplied and paid as before? Reports are that the Russian military refused supplying them needed supplies and the question of the Russian military firing on them still seems unresolved. Not a good setting in my opinion. 4. OR is this all a ruse or play to get Belarus soldiers into the battle while claiming that they were merely members of the Wagner group? It wasn't that long ago that news reports were suggesting such an idea.
The Wagner is a mercenary group, i.e. soldiers of fortune, and they will fight against whomever as long they are paid (there is no loyalty). And many do not live long enough to collect. News reported that they will be redirected by Russian army. Other complains are just noise to cover the intent.
The tactical nukes are a concern as Putin sees he is losing, and there is no resolution in sight. The revolt reveals the weakness from within.
Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of Russia’s Muslim-majority Chechen Republic, said in a Saturday Telegram post that Chechen fighters were “moving into the zone of tension” and that “the rebellion must be put down,” in a move to support Putin, his longtime ally.
Videos posted Saturday and verified by The Washington Post showed Chechen forces loyal to Kadyrov on the move in Russia’s Rostov region.
Who is Ramzan Kadyrov?
Putin installed Ramzan Kadyrov as the republic’s new leader in 2007. Kadyrov’s tactics and worldview have kept him closely aligned with Putin and Wagner Group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin — the latter of whom he now denounces. The Chechen leader has been a loyal ally to Putin — now for more than 15 years.
Since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Kadyrovite forces — a Chechen paramilitary group — have been fighting alongside Russian soldiers against Ukrainian troops, and even other Chechens.
Kadyrov has remained steadfastly supportive of Putin, despite onetime allies such as Prigozhin airing their dissatisfaction with the strategy in Ukraine, and Kadyrov offered to beat back Wagner forces as they briefly headed toward Moscow on Saturday.
One video, filmed near the border with Ukraine’s Donetsk region, showed a long column of Chechen fighters in trucks and armored vehicles lined up in the direction of Rostov. Toward the front of the convoy, a flag in Chechen colors is visible, and a voice is heard making reference to Prigozhin.
The flag was also visible in a separate video, taken about 50 miles from Rostov, near the village of Matveev Kurgan, which showed armored vehicles on the same road. Other footage showed people greeting what appeared to be Chechen units as they passed closer to the city.
It appeared that Chechen forces were also to be relied upon for the defense of Russia’s capital. On Saturday, Chechen official media reported that some 3,000 fighters based in the republic were deployed to protect the Moscow region. Video published on Telegram by Grozny TV showed forces deployed on a bridge leading to Kolomna, about 65 miles from Moscow.
Kadyrov called Prigozhin’s actions “a knife in the back” in a statement posted to Telegram, and he called on Russian troops to resist any “provocations.”
With respect to Prigozhin, at this point maybe even Putin isn't quite certain exactly who is doing what to who. What kind of government allows, apparently even encourages, a private citizen to form his own "army" and engage in major public controversy with the "official" army?
And given Russian government control over military equipment resources, how exactly does Prigozhin even have access to obtain heavy military equipment, never mind pay for it, without major help from somewhere inside the government (Putin, most likely)? So what kind of game is this anyway? One hell of a lot more questions than answers on this one.
Maybe rental equipment or secondhand purchases are part of the contracts with governments. Kinda like it would work in the United States. First hit on a Google of "rental military equipment": https://www.armytrucksinc.com/
Somehow I don't think that just anyone can "rent" this kind of stuff:
Members of Wagner group preparing to pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday.
The Russian empire today and all of its boundaries from 400 years ago continues to function in similar fashions; although there have been a few bright spots here and there. Four + centuries of dystopian higher society just can not get out of its own way. Not genetic or DNA in the medical sense, but it feeds and becomes 'societal' DNA. Tis just the way things have always been sorted as far back as anyone can remember or read about in a book. General society suffers for the most part, and the oligarchs continue to determine who among them is to their benefit, UNTIL they are not. The methods are not abnormal, as this is the way things have been done for so long. In the way back days they disappeared. Sometimes in secrecy and sometimes in public. The modern methods are a poke in the leg, when walking, with a toxin or falling from a 5th floor window opening. From a prior post a few days ago, "They do eat their own."
If Prigozhin isn't already dead, or been 'disappeared' he will be soon. Honestly who really expects Putin or Lukashenko to keep their promises or deals. They will then divide up the assets in Prigozhin's oligarchy between themselves. If you play with fire sooner or later you're going to get burned.
The stakes are high. Prigozhin might have a secret weapon of SOME sort? To keep him alive and away from Putin's thugs? Is a deal with The West in the offing? Presuming he's not already dead?
Russia is a gang-ocracy, through and through. Violence, extortion, graft, tribute, blackmail, murder, EVERYWHERE, right down to the local Alderman. Are there still cities with a Board of Aldermen? Or is it the Politically Correct, Snowflake-run, inclusive and precise Board of Alders? Or Board of Alderpeople?
Anyhow, I read Anne Garrels book. It is shocking, the violent shit that goes on. I recall the story of a guy who was not able to make a living, trying to farm his little plot of ground. He learned to be a mortician. He started a business in that line of work. ... The local "sheriff" knocked on the door, wanting money to PERMIT him to be in business within "his" district.
He would not pay. He refused. Then one evening, he was kidnapped and thrown into a car. Blindfolded. He was taken to a house. No way to know precisely which one. But it was just at the edge of town. The blindfold was removed. A gun was put to the back of his head. He was ordered to open the door into the next room.
He looked. It was his best friend's wife being raped. The "Man" said his own wife would be next, if he did not pay. He paid, then. But he was required to pay MORE.
He and his wife moved away. I forget whether or not they were able to get out of Russia, but he was doing better, in the new location. But only after some required pay-offs, of course. What a filthy, despicable government. From top to bottom.
Comments
So, are the Wagner folks going to leave Ukraine?
The Wagner general is known to be a hot-head who often criticizes the Russian military brass and political leaders. But this is a bit extreme. Taken at face value it raises a specter of a potential armed struggle for control of Russia’s political and military command, and with that their nuclear arsenal.
"The United States said it was monitoring the situation, with National Security Council spokesperson Adam Hodge telling reporters that US allies were also being consulted."
Imagine a civilian with his own private "army" taking on the Army- this makes the US look really stable, for a pleasant change.
In thinking about that, it occurs to me that Prigozhin's "Wagner" outfit is nothing more than a heavy-duty version of our "Proud Boys", "Oath Keepers", et al.
https://nytimes.com/2023/06/23/world/europe/yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-wagner-coup.html
https://msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/breaking-richard-engel-on-reports-of-attempted-coup-on-putin-in-russia-184441925759
Al Jazeera:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/24/wagner-boss-says-march-on-moscow-halted-to-avoid-bloodshed
Questions remain:
1. What is next for Prigozhin in Belarus? Cannot imagine he just ‘retires’.
2. Who will take over Wagner group since they done the bulk of fighting in Ukraine?
For me that begs the questions:
1. Are they loyal only to Prigozhin?
2. Will they retain the same loyalty and attitude fighting for a different leader?
3. Will they be supplied and paid as before? Reports are that the Russian military refused supplying them needed supplies and the question of the Russian military firing on them still seems unresolved. Not a good setting in my opinion.
4. OR is this all a ruse or play to get Belarus soldiers into the battle while claiming that they were merely members of the Wagner group? It wasn't that long ago that news reports were suggesting such an idea.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4066663-kremlin-faces-deeply-unstable-equilibrium-think-tank/
The tactical nukes are a concern as Putin sees he is losing, and there is no resolution in sight. The revolt reveals the weakness from within.
Ramzan Kadyrov offered troops to stop Wagner
With respect to Prigozhin, at this point maybe even Putin isn't quite certain exactly who is doing what to who. What kind of government allows, apparently even encourages, a private citizen to form his own "army" and engage in major public controversy with the "official" army?
And given Russian government control over military equipment resources, how exactly does Prigozhin even have access to obtain heavy military equipment, never mind pay for it, without major help from somewhere inside the government (Putin, most likely)? So what kind of game is this anyway? One hell of a lot more questions than answers on this one.
First hit on a Google of "rental military equipment": https://www.armytrucksinc.com/
Members of Wagner group preparing to pull out from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to their base in Rostov-on-Don late on Saturday.
(Graphic is from a current New York Times report.)
Four + centuries of dystopian higher society just can not get out of its own way. Not genetic or DNA in the medical sense, but it feeds and becomes 'societal' DNA. Tis just the way things have always been sorted as far back as anyone can remember or read about in a book. General society suffers for the most part, and the oligarchs continue to determine who among them is to their benefit, UNTIL they are not. The methods are not abnormal, as this is the way things have been done for so long. In the way back days they disappeared. Sometimes in secrecy and sometimes in public. The modern methods are a poke in the leg, when walking, with a toxin or falling from a 5th floor window opening.
From a prior post a few days ago, "They do eat their own."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-is-dead-man-walking-eurasia-group.html
Russia is a gang-ocracy, through and through. Violence, extortion, graft, tribute, blackmail, murder, EVERYWHERE, right down to the local Alderman. Are there still cities with a Board of Aldermen? Or is it the Politically Correct, Snowflake-run, inclusive and precise Board of Alders? Or Board of Alderpeople?
Anyhow, I read Anne Garrels book. It is shocking, the violent shit that goes on.
I recall the story of a guy who was not able to make a living, trying to farm his little plot of ground. He learned to be a mortician. He started a business in that line of work. ... The local "sheriff" knocked on the door, wanting money to PERMIT him to be in business within "his" district.
He would not pay. He refused. Then one evening, he was kidnapped and thrown into a car. Blindfolded. He was taken to a house. No way to know precisely which one. But it was just at the edge of town. The blindfold was removed. A gun was put to the back of his head. He was ordered to open the door into the next room.
He looked. It was his best friend's wife being raped. The "Man" said his own wife would be next, if he did not pay. He paid, then. But he was required to pay MORE.
He and his wife moved away. I forget whether or not they were able to get out of Russia, but he was doing better, in the new location. But only after some required pay-offs, of course. What a filthy, despicable government. From top to bottom.