Over the past several months, we’ve seen hundreds—if not thousands—of “on-fire” opinions from posters, pundits, and even Nobel Prize-winning economists. Many insisted these issues were directly tied to the markets.
Among the loudest claims: • The economy is in shambles.
• Inflation is going to destroy us.
• The stock market is doomed.
• Tariffs will be disastrous for consumers and the markets.
• The southern border can’t be secured, and violent criminals can’t be arrested.
• Boeing is finished.
• Anything going wrong in the U.S. is Trump’s fault.
The Reality: • The S&P 500 is up—positive performance for the year.
• The economy is stable. Nothing major has collapsed.
• Inflation has declined from 3% to 2.3%. Employment remains solid.
• The southern border is more secure than it has been in years, and many violent criminals have been apprehended.
• U.S. businesses have been and continue accelerating their shift away from China.
• Tariffs, as any reasonable observer would note, were a bargaining chip. The U.K. signed a deal. Others are negotiating. If India signs, it will be a significant milestone. The EU is finally engaging seriously. In the next several months you will see more. Any agreement where the US gets a better deal is a win. It doesn’t matter if it’s 5%, 10% or more. The US is like Amazon or Apple; you pay to sell your merchandise or software.
• China remains a complex challenge, but no one expected a quick fix. Even if an agreement came, skepticism would still be warranted. The broader focus is shifting global trade relationships while collaborating with others.
• The U.S. has seen a surge of private and foreign investment that are fueling job growth, innovation, and opportunity across every corner of the country
https://www.whitehouse.gov/investments/ • The Middle East trip was a huge success, more business, and hopefully regional realignment is underway.
• The US brokered a ceasefire fire between India and Pakistan.
• Boeing has secured billions in new business.
• A deal was signed with Ukraine for access to minerals, hydrocarbons, and infrastructure development.
What to Expect from the Left: • Denial of progress.
• Minimization of any agreement.
• Distractions, instead of cooperation on long-standing shared priorities.
• Focusing on trivial issues while ignoring major developments.
For example, the outrage over Jamal Khashoggi’s killing becomes the headline—while major diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East go ignored. Uniting the region against Iran, China, and Russia; increasing U.S. business opportunities; lowering oil prices; and cutting off funds to terrorism and war—those are significant outcomes.
Let’s not forget:
• Who brokered the Abraham Accords?
• Who dismantled ISIS?
The “on-fire” posts will likely continue for years.
The conclusions:* We should go back and discuss investments.
* Politics and worries don’t have a high correlation to our portfolios and why we should disregard them.
* Your political side can’t be always right, and the other side can’t be always evil and wrong. Why the nonstop 110% on-fire outrage ranting and name-calling? People lose the ability to tell what’s truly serious.
Comments
It would be better if this thread was in Off-Topic instead of Other Investing due to its political nature.
It is no small matter that the gov't is currently in the hands of a corrupt, criminal, treasonous and inept regime. You point to progress and prosperity. Mr. Market never did and never will possess a conscience. Both Dems and Reps are actively complicit in exterminating Palestine. Make Gaza a resort? Trumpy can just eat my shorts. What does it profit anyone, to gain the whole world but lose your soul in the process? The Orange One was never an individual to be admired.
I'd also say that it's much too early to be making bold assertions, since we are indeed in the middle of an interim period, with tariffs allegedly "suspended." What will happen next? Even Orange Guy doesn't know. He'll say one thing, then the opposite, 10 minutes later.
Yes, plz move this thread to Off-topic. The Press has sane-washed this President.
https://mindsitenews.org/2025/04/01/sanewashed-trump-dementia-and-mental-illness/
Methinks there should be more facts of the Middle East trip, for one. Barron's reports today that Trump canceled all of the in place limitations on those countries transferring to China or facilitating China's use of the high end NVDA chips. Any connection to Patel, Wise and Bondy previous lobbying fro Middle Eastern nations? Why does this or the other severe cuts to cyber security and national security staff and funding make any sense?
A Chinese firm with no revenue linked to Tik-Tok somehow bought $300 million of Trump's coin. If this is not a bribe, I don't know what is.
Moody's just cut USA credit rating.
The facts about the cuts to cancer, Alzheimer's and other biomedical research are undeniable, and will have significant negative implications on USA biotech and health companies and on your and your family's health.
https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-insiders-trump-dismantling-and-destroying-everything#
30% of research grants have been cut, in some cases many more. These are not "DEI" grants as MAGA claims. These are basic research into the mechanism of diseases and cures and into individual susceptibilities.
RFK lies in public claiming " no working scientist" was fired when the heads of at least four Research Institutes were terminated, along with hundreds of scientific personnel.
https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-proposes-massive-nih-budget-cut-and-reorganization
The 2026 Trump budget proposal is seeking to cut $33.3 billion in discretionary funding for HHS, representing a 26.2 percent reduction compared to the fiscal 2025 budget.
This includes a $3.6 billion reduction in discretionary funding for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), an $18 billion reduction ( 37 to 45% ) for the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
Never before have the major Government health institutions been lead by people (even if they have an MD) who have never seen a patient and who do not have medical licenses, much less people who not only know nothing about science and medicine and research but who endorse views and beliefs about science and medicine that have not been accepted since the 18th century or earlier.
While some on this board may think research funding is a spigot that can be turned on easily, I know better, having spent my career in medical practice and research. I have sat on NIH review boards determining which grants get funded. These research labs have taken years and decades to put together, with dozens of specialized staff. They have made the US the envy of the world in biomedical research and medical treatments.
No more. Many of our best people are leaving for Canada, Ireland, UK and Europe where they are assured the funds they need will be there.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/49624851-a-new-ireland
and decision-making, just at the moment, is dominated by self-blinded ideologues, self-important amateurs,
lickspittles, pompous mountebanks, braying popinjays, and hollow-hearted poltroons whose ill-conceived,
constitutionally dubious edicts and ham-fisted policies have been rightfully struck down in courtrooms
across the nation."
"That having been said, it is in our shared best interest not to imitate those we most despise
by allowing our frustrations to spill over into discussions that are read by - and encourage silence from -
some of the hundreds of people who visit the board each week but who do not post on it.
If you must vent to keep your head from exploding, post in Off-Topic and not Other Investing."
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54743/welcome-to-the-mfo-discussion-board-civility-is-most-important-when-all-around-you-are-turn-toxic
The posts from sma3 and davfor do contain valuable information.
You're right - it is not my role to tell people where to post since I'm not a moderator.
I offered a suggestion since the OP was overtly political and the poster was obviously venting.
It's broadly understood there are investment and economic implications associated
with several topics mentioned in the OP.
I can't be that sanguine with the retirement fund since it's purpose is to keep me from funding retirement from selling off the taxable. I wouldn't have been happy watching it lurch from pillar to post with all of the Tariff Theater churn coming out of DC.
The IRA is mostly in SPAXX now, so call it up 1.50 YTD, to save me from another login, and more math. M* tells me that SPY is up 1.69 YTD. Do I feel stupid missing out on that extra .0014? Oooh boy. I'll just have to grin and bear it.
I won't even try to predict when I might feel safe getting a little riskier with the IRA. I am eying some bond funds with standard deviations below 1. Can't say that I have been tempted to spend any of the dry powder in the taxable either. Like Chairman Powell, I feel reasonably well postioned to watch things develop.
You might consider moving that to FZDXX ($10K min in IRA), though it would only have gotten you six extra basis points YTD. Almost enough to feel stupid about
Summary prospectus
A man has to know his limits.
Surely among the wisest words ever written.
Big Bang has been directing the political dumpings here:
"I may or may not moderate political posts (which most of these are) unless they are rabid, but I do encourage people to keep to the topic "Economic Impact of Tariffs". If you want to discuss the politics of tariffs, please go here:
www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/63635/tariffs/p7"
"No, you don't have to offer your solution to trade problems. This forum is for investing. Take it off-line with Raq. BB is not going to follow MFO into the mud-wrestling pit."
I don't need to spend my life in regulated space. If this forum is the only one that doesn't ban FD1000 for expressing his opinions I won't lose sleep. Might even get me to donate.
I look at Big Bang from time to time. It reminds me of the early days of the 21st century. I think it's nice y'all have a safe place to chat.
I drop in here because I subscribe to the data feed from Refinitiv. I should add that what Charles has done to make the data accessible is first rate work.
It’s a unique platform with valuable insights, thoughtful discussions, and a long-standing community. Unfortunately, it's also the only investment site I’ve seen where political posts—by a huge margin from one side of the aisle—have hijacked the conversation and driven incivility to the forefront. No other investment forum I follow has experienced this to the same extent.
This site has been read and respected by hundreds over the years. Every few weeks, I make an effort to help bring back the original spirit of MFO—an investment-focused space grounded in respectful, insightful dialogue.
@FD1000 - I just counted the threads directly under this one and saw 15 consecutive ones that focus entirely on investment related topics. While there was a period following the Inauguration when I’d have agreed to some extent with your assessment, that is no longer the case.
Civility? I don’t read the off-topic section anymore and try to skip political posts on this side of the board, so can’t comment. But all of the investing threads (the vast majority of threads now) sound civil to me.
My advice to @FD: ”When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!”
And also, “Become a part of the change you seek to bring about.”
It takes a village