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I haven't read it yet, just offering it up for consumption by interested individuals. Podcast and/or text supplied through Matt Levine at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read. A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.
Really entertaining …I heard that Sunday AM on Bloomberg. Quite an interesting individual. “Four Pillars of Investing” is a really worthwhile read. As I’m sure most of his books are…
It’s frustrating to write-up a paragraph or two complete with linked sources and then lose it when trying to post and having to start over. If you can anticipate that potential problem use the “copy” function of your computer or tablet to temporally store whatever’s on the screen (similar to a cut & paste). Then, if the post fails to take and disappears you can paste your content back to the screen on on another attempt.
Getting some folks to save 15%, 10% or 5% monthly is difficult. I’ve tried with someone I know well. ISTM - Either you “see the light” and do it or you don’t. What “clicks” in one brain but doesn’t in another is a mystery. Bernstein should address the part of the brain that makes us think today will last forever, we will never grow old and the things we buy today will cost the same into perpetuity.
I do think that if you begin investing when you’re very young ignorance may be bliss. We paid a 403-B plan “advisor” 4% front load for buying a global growth fund (thru payroll deduction) in the 70s. But in return we went about our daily lives and work and paid no attention to how the investment was performing. Had we, likely myself and others would have pulled out of equities and gone to cash or safer alternatives at some point along the road.
the most amazing thing regarding barry ritholtz is his ability to get top-of-the-line guests. there are several exchanges where barry pits his years of investing heuristics against bill's more probabilistic backed approach. it did not appear barry was going to let go regardless.
but as a middle-of-the-road conservative, nothing was more telling than barry's inability to understand the likely mid-long term disaster of trump. barry tried to portray big panics (dotcom, 9\11,covid...) as regular things investors survive, but history mostly forgets those that didnt survive. so while economic outcomes of panics may be the same, this is a singular cause by the most powerful person in the world with unprecedented incompetence.
then both went on to giggle over the infamous clip, where trump (& family) at the peak of his mental powers, could not do simple math, and expended more time defending his error then attempting a correct recalc.
but as with other topics, i doubt barry walked away agreeing trump is uniquely highly probable disaster.
I was the old guy in our department (early 40's) and a few of the younger 20 somethings asked me one time if i went to the 401k meeting and i said no and they said it confused them beyond belief. I told them if they were my kids, I would recommend they put 100% of tehir money in VTSAX (it was available and the rest of the options were meh) and keep piling money into it. Eventually there will be a time to MAYBE do something different but right now in early 20's keep it as simple as possible. I also gave the 2 of them this pdf.
Well at a work function where we all get together (90% remote) i'm sitting with a bunch of the 20 somethings and they are talking about the pdf and someone was like "yeah just use total stock market from vanguard" i'm like oooo boy hopefully I dont' get in trouble.
Last year I looked at our work 401k info on Form5500 website. in 2021 prior to this conversation I had wiht the first person, VTSAX represented 3% of all money invested in the 401k. (me). by the end of 2023 it was 11%. I have no idea if that's as a result of a singular conversation but I kind of feel like it was.
You are taking a very slim part of the hour-long interview and seizing on it for a political rant. Your linked video belongs in OT. The problem here - you are distracting and detracting from the excellent content of the Ritholtz / Bernstein interview. It was about investor psychology and not about Trump or politics.
Some of us enjoy investing and come to MFO for that purpose. You can bail out of the market based on political reasons if you want to. Perhaps you already have. By so doing you are confirming Bernstein’s very point that psychological stress based on current news & events causes investors to make irrational decisions that are not in their long term best interest.
i dont consider barry in the MAGA camp, but unsurprised when some are unconvinced by numbers and what is right in their face. fyi, barry was\is part of the same financial complex he rails against. i have read all of bill's works and strongly suggest specifically for you and fd1000 "The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups".
and the trump video is the demonstrative part of what was discussed in the interview.
You are taking a very slim part of the hour-long interview and seizing on it for a political rant. Your linked video belongs in OT. The problem here - you are distracting and detracting from the excellent content of the Ritholtz / Bernstein interview. It was about investor psychology and not about Trump or politics.
Some of us enjoy investing and come to MFO for that purpose. You can bail out of the market based on political reasons if you want to. Perhaps you already have. By so doing you are confirming Bernstein’s very point that psychological stress based on current news & events causes investors to make irrational decisions that are not in their long term best interest.
Bernstein is one of the few Physicians whose advice on investing I would take.
Of course since I am until recently largely a 100 % do it your selfer, I guess I am one of the other ones.
My other favorite "run as as fast you can from this one" are investment gurus who start giving health or "longevity advice". John Maudlin is opening :longevity Clinics"
Comments
Audio Link
Thank you @Mark. I hope above audio link works for those wanting to listen. I did a very quick read.
A Barry Ritholtz podcast with guest Bill Bernstein. - Bernstein’s credentials:” Efficient Frontier Advisors Co-Founder & Neurologist “
It’s a casual rambling look at stock market risks over many years and how various investors deal with the risk. Bernstein is interested in the part of the brain that instinctively tells us to flee when the going really gets bad. Very hard instinct for most to repress. They discuss different portfolios that are easier to stick to than 100% equities. One is a portfolio designed to endure “the worst 98% of all markets”. They debate whether an all-stock approach is best, but both seem to doubt most individuals could stick to it in prologued bear markets - even if they were 30+ years away from retirement.
Sounds like at any given time you have 5 chances out of 6 that stocks will go up. But how to deal with the 1 in 6 probability they will tank? Bonds enter into the discussion. Jim Grant and Charlie Munger are a couple big names they weave into the discussion (along with William Shakespeare). There are some references to Trump’s tariffs and the risk to markets they pose as well as his family’s general financial acumen - but not the dominant theme.
The board’s software is really difficult to work with this evening!
Yes, I've encountered very slow response times this evening.
I've had to reload multiple MFO webpages in order to read/post content.
https://etf.com/docs/IfYouCan.pdf
Getting some folks to save
15%,10%or 5% monthly is difficult. I’ve tried with someone I know well. ISTM - Either you “see the light” and do it or you don’t. What “clicks” in one brain but doesn’t in another is a mystery. Bernstein should address the part of the brain that makes us think today will last forever, we will never grow old and the things we buy today will cost the same into perpetuity.I do think that if you begin investing when you’re very young ignorance may be bliss. We paid a 403-B plan “advisor” 4% front load for buying a global growth fund (thru payroll deduction) in the 70s. But in return we went about our daily lives and work and paid no attention to how the investment was performing. Had we, likely myself and others would have pulled out of equities and gone to cash or safer alternatives at some point along the road.
And, MFO was flaky. No connection, a type of timeout I've not seen before, and save draft and preview would not function.
there are several exchanges where barry pits his years of investing heuristics against bill's more probabilistic backed approach. it did not appear barry was going to let go regardless.
but as a middle-of-the-road conservative, nothing was more telling than barry's inability to understand the likely mid-long term disaster of trump. barry tried to portray big panics (dotcom, 9\11,covid...) as regular things investors survive, but history mostly forgets those that didnt survive.
so while economic outcomes of panics may be the same, this is a singular cause by the most powerful person in the world with unprecedented incompetence.
then both went on to giggle over the infamous clip, where trump (& family) at the peak of his mental powers, could not do simple math, and expended more time defending his error then attempting a correct recalc.
but as with other topics, i doubt barry walked away agreeing trump is uniquely highly probable disaster.
Well at a work function where we all get together (90% remote) i'm sitting with a bunch of the 20 somethings and they are talking about the pdf and someone was like "yeah just use total stock market from vanguard" i'm like oooo boy hopefully I dont' get in trouble.
Last year I looked at our work 401k info on Form5500 website. in 2021 prior to this conversation I had wiht the first person, VTSAX represented 3% of all money invested in the 401k. (me). by the end of 2023 it was 11%. I have no idea if that's as a result of a singular conversation but I kind of feel like it was.
You are taking a very slim part of the hour-long interview and seizing on it for a political rant. Your linked video belongs in OT. The problem here - you are distracting and detracting from the excellent content of the Ritholtz / Bernstein interview. It was about investor psychology and not about Trump or politics.
Some of us enjoy investing and come to MFO for that purpose. You can bail out of the market based on political reasons if you want to. Perhaps you already have. By so doing you are confirming Bernstein’s very point that psychological stress based on current news & events causes investors to make irrational decisions that are not in their long term best interest.
i dont consider barry in the MAGA camp, but unsurprised when some are unconvinced by numbers and what is right in their face. fyi, barry was\is part of the same financial complex he rails against. i have read all of bill's works and strongly suggest specifically for you and fd1000 "The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups".
and the trump video is the demonstrative part of what was discussed in the interview.
Of course since I am until recently largely a 100 % do it your selfer, I guess I am one of the other ones.
My other favorite "run as as fast you can from this one" are investment gurus who start giving health or "longevity advice". John Maudlin is opening :longevity Clinics"
What are thoughts regarding Dr. Jim Dahle, founder of The White Coat Investor ?