The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017

Comments

• lynnbolin2021

  July 14

  At this point, it looks mostly like noise. I count seventeen monthly budget surpluses since January 2017 with fourteen being more than $27B. We need to watch it for throughout the rest of the year to see the trend.
  
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MTSDS133FMS#
• Anna

  July 14 edited July 14

  Thanks @lynnbolin2021. If you blow up to a 10 yr period, then scan across the dates, you will notice that, with the exception of COVID, there is a spike in April of every year. I wonder why. I get a spike in my yearly cash flow in December since I RMD in December. My smoothed yearly and multi-year, not so spikey. It really depends on what programs and contracts are executed in a given time period. Fundamentally, after a budget is set, government agencies are required to execute the budget so monthly behavior doesn't matter so much except on the "executed on time" parameters. Fiscal year end, the expection is a success on both the "within budget" and "on time" parameters of government programs. The "within budget" targets a commitment of all funds allocated by the budget. Also, the government spends or allocates all revenues collected. There is no real long term savings account. The budget usually is not fully covered by the incoming new revenue. Of course, we almost never have surplus revenue but we always have a budget that is executed (backed up by sales of bonds), new revenue be pickled.
• catch22

  July 14

  Hi @Anna The April spikes are generally attributed to IRS tax season payments.
• Observant1

  July 14 edited July 14

  FD1000 said:

  The June 2025 budget recorded a surplus of over $27 billion, the first monthly surplus since 2017. Economists had expected a deficit of $41.5 billion for the month. A key factor was the surge in customs duties, which totaled roughly $27 billion for the month...up from $23 billion in May...

  That’s a $68.5 billion swing in the wrong direction for the experts.
  
  It’s not surprising to me. Economist forecasts make for great conversation—but that’s about it.
  
  If you choose to base your investments on their predictions, that’s your call.
  I don’t.

  It's not surprising when someone cherry-picks random data in a vain attempt to score a victory for "their side."
  The customs duties are not free money.
  How will tariffs affect U.S. consumers' finances and spending patterns?
  What will be the impact to company's margins?
  If you choose to ignore the consequences of ill-conceived tariff "plans," that's your call.
  I don't!
• AndyJ

  July 14 edited July 14

  Like a lot of smart observers noted during the previous time all eyes were on every inflation report, one month by itself means nothing, and one year is almost entirely backward-looking. A good compromise is three months, averaged or annualized -- mainly short-term, in the present, without so much of the potential variability in one very short term measurement.
• Crash

  July 14

  The 1-month surplus as reported in the news is not a lie, just a distraction. Over the next decade (unless a future Congress and President changes course) we are looking at a weaker and weaker dollar, with a national debt that is so big, it's hardly worth bothering to count, anymore. Hell, it's already there...
• lynnbolin2021

  July 15

  The headlines are pointing out that this is the first Federal budget surplus in June which is the first monthly surplus in June for the past five years. This is true. The other surpluses mostly occurred in April, but also in January, August, and September.
  
  Customs duties increased from $83B in 2024 to an annual rate of $96B in 2025 Q1. No doubt tariffs are increasing...
  
  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA
• a2z

  July 15

  
  this surplus and inflation is well within noise. the latter has nothing to do with trump\gop. that has yet to come as a trailing indicator. real inflation under biden was due to supply shocks as any simpleton could grok.
  
  what is tump\gop are responsible for is the absolute level of prices for nearly everything, where many public promises of reducing were made and swallowed. put some numbers to that.
  
• DrVenture

  July 15

  Observant1 said:

  
  
  It's not surprising when someone cherry-picks random data in a vain attempt to score a victory for "their side."
  The customs duties are not free money.
  How will tariffs affect U.S. consumers' finances and spending patterns?
  What will be the impact to company's margins?
  If you choose to ignore the consequences of ill-conceived tariff "plans," that's your call.
  I don't!

  I agree. Tariffs will not only result in inflation, but any tariffs "absorbed" by companies will hit their profits and impact stocks negatively. A double whammy. Globalization ushered in a multi-decade era of prosperity, it appears that we are now going for the opposite.
  
  What is funny is that any tax will increase revenue, suddenly MAGA has a hankering for higher taxes on themselves. A tax masquerading as inflation.
  
  “Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S. “That prompts an important question: Will service and housing inflation, which is easing but still elevated, cool further to offset what will be a more pronounced increase in durable and nondurable goods?”
  
  “Our sense is that the Federal Reserve will continue to display patience as the direction of inflation evolves,” he added.
  
  
• Mona

  August 20

  In its most recent “Monthly Budget Review,” the CBO said that federal spending was lower than it would have been in June because the government made billions of dollars in payments in May that were due on June 1, a Sunday. The Treasury said that some payments for active-duty military, veterans, Supplemental Security Income and Medicare were moved to May because June 1, the normal payment date, was a non-business day.
  
  “If not for those [timing] shifts, the government would have recorded a deficit of $71 billion in June 2025,” the CBO said, emphasizing the word deficit.
  
  https://www.factcheck.org/2025/07/trumps-hollow-surplus-claim/
• equalizer

  August 20

  June estimate from two reliable source did not predict a massive deficit for June 2025.
  
  Congressional Budget Office (CBO): As a primary and authoritative source, the CBO, in its "Monthly Budget Review" published on June 1, 2025, estimated a surplus of $26 billion for the month. This forecast was highly accurate.
  
  Bipartisan Policy Center: In its "Deficit Tracker," this Washington D.C.-based think tank also anticipated a surplus for June. They highlighted that the positive figure would be driven by the influx of quarterly tax receipts from individuals and corporations.
  
  
• equalizer

  August 20

  $291B Federal Budget Deficit for July 2025. There goes the budget.
  
  Don’t listen to economists or weather forecasters.
  
  In June 2015 Bipartisan Policy Center predicted that "...the government will likely run a larger deficit in July, as there are no quarterly tax deposits due that month." This qualitative forecast proved to be accurate.
  
  https://www.pgpf.org/programs-and-projects/fiscal-policy/current-debt-deficit/
  
  https://mises.org/mises-wire/federal-debt-surges-july-trumps-spending-spree-continues
• equalizer

  August 20

  Bloomberg’s monthly economists’ survey for the federal budget balance in June and July 2025
  
  June 2025 $20 billion surplus Bloomberg LP Fiscal Forecast Survey (survey closed May 30, 2025)
  
  
  July 2025 $275 billion deficit Bloomberg LP Fiscal Forecast Survey (survey closed June 27, 2025)
  
  Actual numbers were $27B surplus in June and deficit of $291B.
  
  That’s pretty accurate.
  But you need the Bloomberg Terminal, not some random unsourced quote from TikTock. Better save up for that yearly $24,000 terminal access.
  
  These consensus figures reflect the median of roughly two dozen U.S. fiscal experts polled via the Bloomberg Terminal (“ECO” survey function). If you have terminal access, you can retrieve the full survey breakdown—including high, low, and standard deviation—by searching for the “US BUDGET” economic indicator in the survey module.
  
• howaya

  August 20

  So, does FD1000 ever read the responses to his inaccurate claims? If he does, I do not recall him ever accepting fault. With that in mind, it is unfortunate that so many here choose to feed the monster. Wouldn't it be better to respond with your corrections in a new thread while letting his original posts whither away? Or is there value in repeatedly exposing FD1000's flawed perspective? Hmm.
• Sven

  August 20

  I recognize that BS1000 has been a troll who contributes nothing but chaos. Thus, it would be more constructive for the board members to not answer his posting, i.e. don’t feed the trolls.
• Mona

  August 20

  Sven said:

  I recognize that BS1000 has been a troll who contributes nothing but chaos. Thus, it would be more constructive for the board members to not answer his posting, i.e. don’t feed the trolls.

  +1
• rforno

  August 20

  
  Don't tell the WH, they'll want to build another ballroom with the 'surplus' reported....