Tariffs, tariffs, and more about tariffs

Comments

• a2z

  July 27

  continue playing the fool in another new thread, not realizing how tariff burdens are split.
  there is no 3rd-party vetting of any 'signed' contracts, the majority of which have been to have further talks. call me skeptical on either side trusting the other to comply...trump broke his own prior nafta agreement.
  
  the revenue reported is mostly via logistics providers able to somewhat encode all the changes and carve-outs. the estimate of 'stable' tariffs is ~5-10X, and you can pretend that has no impact because all forecasters are wrong.
  
  google 'things that flow downhill'
  https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/195531/#Comment_195531
  
• Mona

  July 28

  After Pledging to Keep Prices Low, Amazon Hiked Them on Hundreds of Essentials
  
  https://archive.li/jWVV3#selection-2189.0-2189.78
• Mona

  July 28

  Here’s where Walmart prices are changing — and staying the same — as Trump’s tariffs hit
  
  https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/17/trump-tariffs-affect-walmart-prices.html
• Junkster

  July 28

  So far, at least early in the trading day the market isn’t reacting as one might expect to the positive tariff news. The market seems tired. New highs on the NYSE have been declining not expanding recently as the S@P has made new highs. Divergent action in the small caps. August is historically weak for second term Presidents post election year. I am no longer super bullish for other reasons too numerous to list. I am also investment board weary and taking a break from not just posting but even reading.
• Sven

  July 29 edited July 29

  In my opinion bonds present better opportunities than that of stocks. For now i am comfortable with our asset allocation and this watching on the sideline.
  
  @Mona, importing companies can either absorb the added tariffs (impact their earning) or pass them to the consumers). History has shown the consumers paid the tariffs. Thus, higher price goods lead to increased inflation.
• DrVenture

  July 31 edited July 31

  Three straight losing days despite a flurry of tariff announcements. There is a July jobs report that is expected to be rather grim, and expectations of fewer rate cuts as the year progresses. It looks like the salad days are over!
  
  I may consider some equity sales. Watching carefully.
  
  UPS and whirlpool down 16% in 5 days. Other companies reporting how badly tariffs will hurt their businesses.https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/stanley-black-decker-conagra-trump-tariffs-cost-increases.html?&qsearchterm=black and decker
  
  "Those pressures extend throughout the auto industry. General Motors
  said earnings before interest and taxes in the latest quarter suffered a $1.1 billion hit that the Detroit-based automaker chalked up to the net effect of tariffs."
  
  "Also on Tuesday, Proctor & Gamble gave 2026 financial guidance showing $1 billion in higher pretax costs as a result of tariffs on goods from China, Canada and the rest of the world."
  
  There are a lot more where that comes from, just a sampling.
• Old_Joe

  July 31 edited July 31

  So much WINNING ! I can hardly stand it.
• dtconroe

  August 4

  There is nothing simple about global economies and the impact of Tariffs. You make assumptions about tariffs and impacts on global economies, and then a few days later, you get new information that alters what you were concluding a few days earlier. The most recent economic news is showing a wide range of inflationary information, and warnings that cost of living is likely to start raising its head in a more widespread fashion. Just a few days ago, it appeared rate cuts were settling into a holding pattern, and now it looks like rate cuts may be required in September as our economy, and world economies, are showing evidence of weakening. Unemployment appears to be worsening as businesses close or cut costs due to the impact of tariffs.
  
  What does this mean for investing? Very debatable but valuations are very high, stocks look very vulnerable, unemployment seems to be worsening. It is hard to count on a "trend" and hard to draw any firm conclusions about the impact of tariffs.
  
  Just my opinion for whatever its worth.
• DrVenture

  August 4

  Thank you for chiming in, DT. I remember you from M* forums, you always offered level-headed opinions. I agree with your concerns, and conclusion that the data is changing almost daily.
• Mark

  August 4

  All true DT & DrV. I think one always knew that the data was likely to be revised up the road but at least it wasn't made up or make believe nonsense. Not no more.